Current PSA rc explosion on ebay.

[nrm1977]

Hello,

Glad I finally signed up on the forums. I've been a long time lurker. I'm really impressed with a lot that I've read. It seems like a lot of true collectors on these forums. Nothing wrong with flipping here and there.

Now, I've been an on and off collector for 29 years (39yrs old). I wasn't a big fan of the whole graded card industry back in the late 1990's. Though, nowadays, buying online I feel like graded cards are the only way to go. Way to many trimmed/doctored cards etc etc.

I starting really collecting again this past Jan. I mainly collect HoF rookie cards, Baseball, Basketball, Football. I'm also a set builder at heart.

Now, I can't figure out how a lot of these PSA (bgs/Sgc) are doubling/tripling in price in a matter of weeks. It doesn't make sense to me at all. I don't like comparing Sports Card collecting to the stock market, I feel that is foolish. This is a hobby at heart. With that said, it seems like these prices only increase via PWCC and Probstein auctions. I'm sorry but, if you look at the bid history of these auctions it doesn't take Einstein to figure out what's really going on. Now, I'm not saying this auction houses are shill bidding but, I'm very confident a good amount of the original cards owners are shilling. I know a lot of you have talked about this recently.

I've heard that "there is new money in the hobby", if this is the case, most of these so called "new money players" are extremely rich! The average collector is going to be pushed right out of this "market". I just don't see how they're going to be able to resell these cards, unless the graded rookie HoF part of the hobby is going to be geared towards millionaires. I honestly don't buy these new money theory.

I really can't figure out what's going on? I recently wanted to buy a 1969 Topps Reggie Jackson PSA/SGC 7 rookie but the priced tripped ever since a PWCC auction a couple weeks back. A 1980 Topps Rickey Henderson spiked from $300-$600, again, another PWCC auction. Don't forget the Jordan craze from his rookie to junk era fleers going for insane amounts but not to get side-tracked, this is the vintage forums. I had a Unitas 1957 Topps PSA 7 I sold in the early/mid 2000's, which now I wanted to replace. I just watched psa 8 card go from 2k-25k...The 7's tripled in price in a matter of a couple weeks, which pushed me out of my price range.

I'm sorry but I strongly feel there is a lot of manipulation going on. At the same time, I don't want to believe that but, the evidence points towards it. I'm sure its a combination of a few things I talked about. I just can't see how these prices can hold. If there is new money buying these cards for these current insane prices, I don't foresee them being able to sell at those prices if they want to get out of the hobby. I could go on and on but, it seems like these new record prices increase after PWCC/Probstein auctions. Seems fishy...

In the end, I'm actually getting a little disgusted with this part of the hobby. This hobby has always had corruption, from all those fake pete rose rookies, PSA allowing a trimmed Wagner, Mastro auctions, shill biding all come to mind. I leave you with a few questions; I'm curious on everyone's take on whats truly going on? What direction this hobby is going? Will these current prices hold or will the "bubble" bust? I can honestly say, I've never seen anything like this in our hobby....

Nick

[win1977]

Hello Nick,

Also a long time lurker and first time poster actually. I found your post very interesting and thought I'd share my opinion for what it's worth. I also have been involved with the hobby for over 32 years, I wasn't initially too thrilled with the third party grading concept however it is true with all the doctoring there is value in what they bring. The also allow for a more liquid market especially for online sales through auctions etc. I would classify myself as a collector, I've been buying the vintage cards I've always wanted graded, however they've been in lower grades where I don't need to pay those extreme premiums but still have the enjoyment of owning the card. You seem like someone with the same perspective. For myself, with the newer cards I've bought higher grades but it also depends on my budget at the time. I don't look at it as an investment at all, I say buy what you like, if it goes up great, if it goes down oh well... you still like your card. I still hold an 86-87 Fleer Jordan raw and a 79-80 OPC Gretzky raw as well from my childhood. I thought about getting them graded but then though why? I enjoy the cards and whether they get an 8,9 or 10 isn't going to make a difference.

There are pumpers and you seem like a very sophisticated collector and could probably avoid those sellers, my main thesis is enjoy the hobby.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

[aro13]

The explosion in the prices of high grade rookies is being discussed on NET54 quite often as well. Not certain if we are allowed to direct a link from their board but here is a discussion taking place over on that board.

Is "market pushing" ethical or not? - Net54baseball.com Forums

[pokerplyr80]

If you think these prices are exclusive to PWCC and Probstein I would suggest visiting a few other auction sites. Heritage, Memory Lane, REA, Goodwin, etc. The market is changing. Keep an eye on the next Heritage auction if you're curious how much. Or the 9 Rose that Sean has up on Ebay.

[nrm1977]

Originally Posted by aro13

The explosion in the prices of high grade rookies is being discussed on NET54 quite often as well. Not certain if we are allowed to direct a link from their board but here is a discussion taking place over on that board.

Is "market pushing" ethical or not? - Net54baseball.com Forums

I just read that whole thread. Most of which I strongly agree with a lot of people!

I don't pay attention to other auction houses, as I shop just on ebay for my cards. I can see the bid history on ebay for PWCC/Probstein. I also don't feel the market is changing as the gentlemen above me indicated. It's being manipulated. These auction houses could wind up in trouble at some point. I'm pretty sure some department in the federal government watching things like this. It will be interesting to see what the future holds....

[whitesoxfan3579]

I don't know the answer, however I just watched Falling Down on DVD with Michael Douglas and Robert Duvall (I have seen this movie at least three different times now) and the posts above reminded me of a scene in the movie with Douglas and Duvall:

Bill Foster: I'm the Bad Guy?

Sergeant Prendergast: Yeah.

Bill Foster: How'd that happen? I did everything they told me to. Did you know I build missiles? I helped to protect America. You should be rewarded for that. But instead they give it to the plastic surgeons, you know they lied to me.

Sergeant Prendergast: Is that what this is about? You're angry because you got lied to? Is that why my chicken dinner is drying out in the oven? Hey, they lie to everyone. They lie to the fish...

[Ruth1933]

Ehh I'm not saying there's not manipulation but certain key cards will continue rising until we die think of all the professional nba players/nfl/mlb that are replaced every 10 years ! Lots of professionals with disposeable income . I guarantee lots of these players kids collect these cards as well as the players themselves

And sports will always be popular just like music and movie entertainment

Wilt chamberlain
Jim brown
Babe Ruth
Jerry west
Jackie Robinson
Michael Jordan
1948 satchell Paige
Bill Russell rc


I think certain keys cards will continue exploding while some will come down slowly

[rexvos]

A lot of money has entered the hobby recently. Not really price manipulation, just people of about our age (I am 43) that have done well and have the income to put into the key cards they have always wanted. This has been going on for about 3 years now for higher end, some of the mid grades are just now following suit. You will notice however the price explosion is only on key rcs and superstars.

[kyaa]

I agree with the OP. This is all extremely shady.

I am a prospector, not a vintage buyer but I've recently gotten into debates with some users on the forums who repeatedly assert that vintage is the best investment which seems crazy to me since I can't imagine today's youth replacing current vintage owners in the marketplace.

Anyway, since some of these users cited their remarkable returns I did a little research of my own and have been stupefied by the ridiculous increases in some cards within the past few months. PSA graded rookies of long retired athletes doubling or tripling in value in a matter of months? There is no way that's legitimate.

Whatever is going on, it's not sustainable, it's unethical and it's possibly illegal. I'd be very reluctant to jump on the buying bandwagon.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by nrm1977

I just read that whole thread. Most of which I strongly agree with a lot of people!

I don't pay attention to other auction houses, as I shop just on ebay for my cards. I can see the bid history on ebay for PWCC/Probstein. I also don't feel the market is changing as the gentlemen above me indicated. It's being manipulated. These auction houses could wind up in trouble at some point. I'm pretty sure some department in the federal government watching things like this. It will be interesting to see what the future holds....

Yeah, there might be some dept. in the Federal Govt. watching. I think I might be able to corroborate that. They have been watching for about 10 yrs now and that is why 3 major auction house employees are behind bars today.

[nrm1977]

Originally Posted by Leon

Yeah, there might be some dept. in the Federal Govt. watching. I think I might be able to corroborate that. They have been watching for about 10 yrs now and that is why 3 major auction house employees are behind bars today.

Bingo! Though, I wasn't try to blow my "cover"!

[Gustomania]

Maybe its about time football takes off, I saw that PSA 8 Jim Brown go for like $14,000 but when you think about it he has only 237 PSA 8's and 5 PSA 9's and no PSA 10's.

Seems like one of the most iconic football players is finally getting his due....now whether its some funny business idk.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by Gustomania

Maybe its about time football takes off, I saw that PSA 8 Jim Brown go for like $14,000 but when you think about it he has only 237 PSA 8's and 5 PSA 9's and no PSA 10's.

Seems like one of the most iconic football players is finally getting his due....now whether its some funny business idk.

A quick look at the bidding and the top 2 had a suspect history and multiple retracted bids. I doubt they insisted on paying $14K on a card that was $2K last week.

[Gustomania]

Ouch, yeah didnt see that. If that's the case that's ridiculous.

QUOTE=Archangel1775;11071051]A quick look at the bidding and the top 2 had a suspect history and multiple retracted bids. I doubt they insisted on paying $14K on a card that was $2K last week.[/QUOTE]

[nrm1977]

This is pure insanity watching some of these "auctions", not sure how a card goes up 500% in 2 weeks.

On another related note, I keep reading/hearing about new "investors" in the "hobby". I'm not sure I'm totally buying this. Card collecting isn't nearly as popular as the "golden years" (88-92). In fact, I don't know anyone who collects cards anymore. I work in a hospital, I interact with my patients and their family members. Most of the folks I chat with are surprised people still collect sports cards.

I have seen recent posts referring to graded sports cards as the new commodities investments. Which is completely hilarious in a sense. Comparing sports cards to Oil, Corn, or even Gold and Silver is nonsense! These true commodities are traded world wide to a mass market. 99.9% of the general public aren't collecting sports cards but, yet some people are claiming we have big new investors in this hobby?!?! If this was the case, how come thepit. com never exploded? I want to say this site has been around for a fairly long time.

Back to the topic at hand, why am I even concerned? Firstly, the higher graded cards are being pushed out of my range. I mainly collect near-mint cards. So why not just buy lower graded cards? Well, those prices are 500% more due to the higher end cards "selling" for insane amounts. Now, I consider myself to be part of the upper-middle class. Yet, I've cut my buying down a lot lately due to the current prices. If most people are like me and they're not buying as much right now, who is buying? I see a lot of folks are selling due to the current prices, I just don't understand who is buying!?

[Mister2Bits]

I don't think shill bidders have as much of an impact as most people think they do. At the end of the day, a card is worth only what someone is willing to pay for it. If a shill bidder is artificially raising purchase prices, but someone still buys it, like it or not - that is the new adjusted value.

In my opinion, there has been a recent surge as more and more non-collectors with disposable (invest-able) income are turning towards alternative investments. Graded Vintage is a very profitable investment right now and some high net worth saavy investors are making some moves. Why put money in a fund with extraordinary fees only to battle volatile and inefficient markets? Why pay an investment adviser a ton of money to closet an index? Why gamble when you can buy well known vintage and not lose value. The only real risk is theft/flood/fire during storage. some of the cards have been around for 100 years. The downside is very minimal and demand is only going to increase.

I'm not a flipper, but some of the best investments I've made have been from buying raw vintage and sending to PSA/BGS for grading.

My stock portfolio is up 20% YTD. My vintage PC is up even more.

[win1977]

Hello there,

I'd agree that the appreciation in vintage is natural over time however the mega spikes in certain cards is suspect.

Also to classify this asset class as having very little downside is debatable. Take into consideration how quickly liquidity could dry up along with the risk of a grading card losing credibility. Ie.gai, and there's a big difference between that and a financial asset portfolio. Collect what you love.

Have a happy 4th of July everyone and happy Canada day to my fellow Canadians.

[cowboyfaninlr]

It's not just RCs. Check out some of the prices in Goodwin & Co. auction ended last night.

1955 Mays , Aaron, Snider, and Teddy Ballgame all in PSA 8 and all ended north of $4,500 each.

[nrm1977]

Originally Posted by win1977

Hello there,

I'd agree that the appreciation in vintage is natural over time however the mega spikes in certain cards is suspect.

Also to classify this asset class as having very little downside is debatable. Take into consideration how quickly liquidity could dry up along with the risk of a grading card losing credibility. Ie.gai, and there's a big difference between that and a financial asset portfolio. Collect what you love.

Have a happy 4th of July everyone and happy Canada day to my fellow Canadians.

I would have to agree there is a huge difference between a financial asset portfolio and graded sports cards.

Don't forget PSA graded the trimmed/altered t206 Honus Wagner (psa 8 the one Mastro trimmed/submitted) AND knew the card was trimmed but, still graded it.

If some "big investors" are buying high end graded cards for huge prices, who are they going to sell to? I'm not convinced the sports trading card market is attracting lots of high end investors. Lets say 30 new big money investors are in the "game", again, when these guys are ready to sell, who will be left to buy all these 5-6 figure sports cards? Certainly not the average "Joe".

Just remember like in any "market", there is always a boom and a bust, basic economic principles.

[Morgoth]

Anyone with a subscription to VCP can see the funny business.

I recently purchased a PSA 8.5 60 Banks cheaper than a 8 sold for in a questionable auction so pricing is getting out of hand. I am sure it's going to ruin the National for me as the dealers will be quoting these sales.

Vintage was stagnant for years and some HOF rcs needed to go up, but PSA 8 64 Aaron's or 65 Clementes are not $700 cards.

What I was told by a vintage dealer was that some dealers were buying cards from each other on eBay driving prices up so that they could sell them at shows or online at a higher rate. They are trying to set a new market standard.

When they either get stuck with the card they pay for it and get the money returned they then get it re-slabbed so they get a new serial number if the card is iconic.

You can see sometimes PWCC or Probstein running the same serial numbers in auctions months apart. They are trying to hide the fact the card never really sold.

If they get fish to bite in these auctions then so be it but they are trying to convince people common HOF psa 8's are worth 4 to 6 times what they were last year. If enough auctions end at those prices people will start believing. People in this thread already have drank the kook aide.

I will continue buying what I feel is a good value, concentrate on Pirates and hope this blows over

[Archangel1775]

Conveniently the National is coming up. Good luck there people! Let me know where all the savy investors are on the sales floor. There should be a tremendous amount of 40 something millionaires

[MOONBASE1]

It's possible some of these buyers are so well off that reselling the card is not of any concern to them, if they are just trying to recapture a youth memory through these cards. In other words money is no object. Many of us have bought cards back as adults that we discarded as youngsters. This is just a different price point.

[Morgoth]

Originally Posted by MOONBASE1

It's possible some of these buyers are so well off that reselling the card is not of any concern to them, if they are just trying to recapture a youth memory through these cards. In other words money is no object. Many of us have bought cards back as adults that we discarded as youngsters. This is just a different price point.

In my experience rich people get rich by caring about how they are spending money. In other words the people spending heavy care a lot about value. Just read articles about guys like Marshall Fogle who is as a HOF type collector, value matters a lot to him. They are not going full in on a hobby this expensive not caring if they end up losing tons of money.

I know many vintage collectors or investors sitting this out and waiting for normalcy. There have been runs on many cards or sets before such as 52 Topps, T206 low grade, 33 Goudey etc.. In all cases the cards eventually back to normal as supply overwhelmed demand. Anyone remember the 52 Topps Herman Wehemier or Gus Zernial record prices?

[jared6180]

I am interested in picking up some vintage, but I will say the price inflation has made me think twice.

[Archangel1775]

Fantastic, I have someone with a 68 Topps Nolan Ryan in PSA 5ish condition that wants $10,000.............so now I'm either looking at people with 88 and 89 Topps or key rookie cards that they believe are worth a ton.