Vintage Card Prices Exploding

[powejr01]

Hi everyone, I thought I'd ask this question here as the shared knowledge on this board is unbelievable! I've noticed that, over the past year, prices on some vintage graded cards have gone through the roof and I was wondering if anyone knew why. For example, a PSA 7 Killebrew RC was a $200-300 card a year ago, and now is pushing $800-900. Also, a 5.5 Koufax RC is now over a grand and was maybe a $500 card one to two years ago. Seems to be the case with all of the big HOF rookies (even a PSA 8 SP Jeter RC has gone from like $125 to $250-300). Who is buying these? Does anyone think it's because interest rates are so low and there's nothing else to do with cash? I'm so curious - I have about 20 cards left to complete my PSA HOF RC set and I've seen prices get so high that it has become prohibitively expensive.

Anyway, I'd love to hear everyone's thoughts.

Thanks!

Jim

[davidk]

i think people have been noticing the trend... kind of like real estate or any other kind of investment.

As far as baseball cards... new cards, ups and downs are just too much. It's not really an investment... it's a buy and sell quick for profit type deal.

Vintage is more of an investment. They just go up gradually. I don't expect the price boom to keep going, I think it'll slow, but I doubt the prices will drop like the newer cards.

[jareynolds]

Being a vintage football collector, I think our market Is being manipulated by a few buyers. My guess is that a pump and dump strategy is being used. The higher end football cards of stars (Namath, brown,etc) have increased 5x-10x in value over the past 5 weeks or so while the mid to lower end and other vintage have seen little increase when thinking about the market collectively. My guess is that this will continue until the handful of market manipulators sell off their collection(s). Unfortunately, the market manipulators will likely sell their cards through the eBay big consignors(pwcc, probstein,etc) so it will be difficult to identify them. However,if you watch the psa registry and follow the set rankings, you may get a good idea of who selling. Any very high end collections being retired on the registry and/or sold right now should raise an eyebrow. Even then, it will be still hard to tell as some on the registry may be selling to ride the wave of price increase so be careful when making any accusations. Again this is my opinion as I have no facts to substantiate my statements.

My recommendation would be to buy a subscription to vcp.com. You can clearly see when the the prices in the cards began to jump. To protect your self, either don't bid on the auctions or don't bid higher than the average vcp prices prior the "market explosion".

[shortstopguy12]

An example I have found when looking into vintage is that the 1954 Hank Aaron RC's have had a huge jump in the past few months, while the 1954 Ernie Banks RC has seen a very slow, small, and steady increase since 2007 with no outliers in the last few months... It's odd

[mfw13]

Lots of shady stuff going on....rumor has it that certain dealers are selling to each other at artificially inflated prices (without any money changing hands) in order to create the perception that card values are rising.

For example....dealer A sells a $500 card to dealer B for $1000. Dealer B then sells a different $500 card back to dealer A also for $1000. Both report $1000 as the sale price, but no money or cards change hands.

It's getting to be just as corrupt and underhanded as the contemporary art market is these days...

[jareynolds]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Lots of shady stuff going on....rumor has it that certain dealers are selling to each other at artificially inflated prices (without any money changing hands) in order to create the perception that card values are rising.

For example....dealer A sells a $500 card to dealer B for $1000. Dealer B then sells a different $500 card back to dealer A also for $1000. Both report $1000 as the sale price, but no money or cards change hands.

It's getting to be just as corrupt and underhanded as the contemporary art market is these days...

I think money is changing hands because most of these sales are occurring through the consignors.

[nman84]

I don't think these prices will go back down. They might plateau but they won't go back down. For those that do think they will go down, why not sell what you have and take advantage of the current market? Buy back when you think it'll go down?

[seabass97166]

Originally Posted by nman84

I don't think these prices will go back down. They might plateau but they won't go back down. For those that do think they will go down, why not sell what you have and take advantage of the current market? Buy back when you think it'll go down?

Key Vintage with eye appeal will never go down.

However, you CAN sell all your modern and buy that back in the offseason for less

Originally Posted by jareynolds

I think money is changing hands because most of these sales are occurring through the consignors.

They are a ton of private sales. So many collectors, investors, athletes, etc ...no shortage of high end buyers

[powejr01]

Thanks everyone - this info is all really helpful. The price increases just don't seem natural to me. I also noticed there's another thread a lot like this one from a week or so ago that generally arrives at the same conclusions. I'm really debating whether to sell some of mine (I have some nice PSA 7s and 8s from the '60s and '70s) just because prices are so crazy, but am afraid that it will cost me an arm and a leg to buy them back. Anyway, thanks again!

[aro13]

There are a lot of theories about what is going on in the hobby right now.

Among the ideas throw around are new high-end buyers, price manipulation, a lot of shilling, sports cards as commodities, etc....

Tough spot to be in if you need 20 more cards to complete your HOF RC set. I need around 10 post-war HOF RC's and have lowered my expectations. Where as before I wanted a PSA/SGC 4 or 5 Willie Mays rookie now I might have to settle for a 1. Same with Clemente and Aaron.

[cowboyfaninlr]

I think the market will adjust in time

[Morgoth]

Originally Posted by seabass97166

Key Vintage with eye appeal will never go down.

However, you CAN sell all your modern and buy that back in the offseason for less




They are a ton of private sales. So many collectors, investors, athletes, etc ...no shortage of high end buyers

This is wrong, many key vintage cards have gone down after huge price jumps. 33 Goudeys, T206 low grade HOF, "sp" 52 Topps, I am sure other collectors can remember when there were runs on certain cards or sets. Also the vintage market crashed hard after 911 as well

[sbfinley]

This rise can't sustain itself (and I've made good gains from it). It's just not going to happen. A handful of premier cards might be on solid ground (and I could point out many that are still undervalued), but in the end this will correct itself on the vast majority of cards.

[Archangel1775]

There is a group of people that are definitely artificially influencing the entire hobby right now.

[boadster]

Originally Posted by Morgoth

This is wrong, many key vintage cards have gone down after huge price jumps. 33 Goudeys, T206 low grade HOF, "sp" 52 Topps, I am sure other collectors can remember when there were runs on certain cards or sets. Also the vintage market crashed hard after 911 as well

The Seabass comment is idiotic. ANY investment: stocks, gold, oil, bonds, art- anything seen as a potential safe haven for money or seen by some as an investment, CAN go down. Even the most hallowed of cards....No tree grows to the sky...

[pdxprospect]

Originally Posted by boadster

The Seabass comment is idiotic. ANY investment: stocks, gold, oil, bonds, art- anything seen as a potential safe haven for money or seen by some as an investment, CAN go down. Even the most hallowed of cards....No tree grows to the sky...

Idiotic? It's an opinion, just like yours.
Only time will tell what is true and what is not.

Personally, as I am new to vintage collecting have not noticed the price increase, but definitely not happy about the high prices.

So I understand all of the opinions about how the market will plateau at some point. But to me, it comes down to economics of supply and demand.

Ultimately there will be less supply available as there is a fixed supply (no more in production) while more cards are being tucked away into personal collections. As long as demand remains the same, prices will rise with less supply.

There would either have to be less buyers or more sellers for prices to decrease. Does anyone see this happening in the near future?

[jareynolds]

Originally Posted by pdxprospect

Idiotic? It's an opinion, just like yours.
Only time will tell what is true and what is not.

Personally, as I am new to vintage collecting have not noticed the price increase, but definitely not happy about the high prices.

So I understand all of the opinions about how the market will plateau at some point. But to me, it comes down to economics of supply and demand.

Ultimately there will be less supply available as there is a fixed supply (no more in production) while more cards are being tucked away into personal collections. As long as demand remains the same, prices will rise with less supply.

There would either have to be less buyers or more sellers for prices to decrease. Does anyone see this happening in the near future?

unfortunately it does not come down to simple supply and demand. Your trying to apply an Economic theory for a regulated market. You can throw that out the window. The reality is that the vintage sportscard market is unregulated with a few really high end collectors/sellers/dealers that manipulate the market by working together through a few well known auction houses that turn a blind eye to shady practices. The auction houses do nothing to prevent the shady practices because they get a fixed commission on each sale. Further they are not going to out the customers that make them money. When you have the auction houses working with high end sellers/dealers with no third party monitor/enforcer of standard auction/market rules, its like asking the fox to watch the hen house and the buyer is the hen. That's the market your applying your money toward.

[nman84]

So if a few guys can make the market go up, wouldn't they be the ones that Dictate it going back down? As long as demand is there why would they?

[jareynolds]

Originally Posted by nman84

So if a few guys can make the market go up, wouldn't they be the ones that Dictate it going back down? As long as demand is there why would they?

We're talking about crazy short term fluctuations in the market like what is occurring now. Secondly, This is usually occurring when high end collectors want out of the market. They don't care what happens after they sell. The new buyer is left holding the bag

Dealers/sellers, collectors/dealers, collectors/collectors, etc can sell to one another through the auction houses inflating values in the process. Pump the prices of their inventory and then dump it on the market. Auction house receive some really good commissions from this process. The sellers do well because a) there selling high end/rare vintage and b) the value of the item shoots up 5x-10x on cards that were ($) 4 digits become ($) 5 or even 6 digits. This easily over comes the commission charges you paid while paying for your own items.

Just like we seen with gas prices a decade ago, prices go up quickly like a bottle rocket but act like a feather in the wind when they drop but don't necessarily return to where they were in the beginning thus becoming the new norm. The collectors change overtime but the big sellers/dealers remain relatively constant. It doesn't take long to figure out the game if your a collector.

Again this is just my opinion/theory on what is occurring. I'm sure others will have different views which I'd be interested in reading..

[fulltritty]

Of course prices are going up just as I get into vintage.

[jareynolds]

Originally Posted by fulltritty

Of course prices are going up just as I get into vintage.

Don't sweat it. You’re the buyer and control what you’re willing to pay. Just do you research, have a price your willing to pay and stick to it, be patient, and avoid the hype by not buying “hot” cards. Educate yourself and you will be fine.

[seabass97166]

Originally Posted by fulltritty

Of course prices are going up just as I get into vintage.

Keep an eye out for SGC graded cards. You can get a very nice looking card at a decent price compared to PSA!

[HadWayTooMuch]

So where do you find these high end buyers? If I get these 51 Bowmans, I'm going to need to find some high end buyers. Especially if that Mantle hits a PSA 3 or higher!

[fulltritty]

Originally Posted by jareynolds

Don't sweat it. You’re the buyer and control what you’re willing to pay. Just do you research, have a price your willing to pay and stick to it, be patient, and avoid the hype by not buying “hot” cards. Educate yourself and you will be fine.

I am in the process now of going through and detailing in a spreadsheet the vintage players I want with prices I can afford for graded cards for each year through 1969.

[Scottish Punk]

Originally Posted by seabass97166

Keep an eye out for SGC graded cards. You can get a very nice looking card at a decent price compared to PSA!

Shhhh!! Don't give away the secret. SGC cards are great on the buy side. Solid grades, cheaper prices, and great looking case.