Optic Holos - Silver > Red, Blue, etc?

[imb4]

It makes complete sense to me why the Prizm silvers are the top end of the set -- there are what, 20 parallels? Optic seems to be more in line with traditional Topps Chrome limited printing /199, /99, /49 etc. Are the optic holo silvers going to top out higher than the reds, blues and oranges?

[HP7163]

They are already selling for more but only a dufus would think long term a card with a thousand would sell for more than a limited serial number

[tjforce]

I could see them sell for more than the Orange /199. Maybe the Red /99.

The issue is that collectors see the Silvers/Holos as the standard while many of the colors just blend together.

Sort of like the reason why base prizm will sell for more than sets like Grand Reserve, etc, even though there are many, many more prizms out there.

[HP7163]

Long term I just can't think non serial numbered silver holo sell for more than serial numbered

[imb4]

Thanks for the input so far. I think the fact that the red & blue are team colors and refractors make them particularly appealing. But the fact that the silver is seen as the standard is a hard to predict factor. Red seems to be even (price) with silver right now based on a handful of ebay listings. Blue appears to be ahead & orange is slightly behind. The fact that the silver went from 200 to 575 in 2 days makes this whole scene unpredictable.

[imb4]

Originally Posted by HP7163

Long term I just can't think non serial numbered silver holo sell for more than serial numbered

Except purple prizms, right?

[HP7163]

Originally Posted by imb4

Except purple prizms, right?

Dime a dozen

[Oldschool42]

Seems to me that collectors, excuse me speculators, are driving the hype train HARD. No way should base silvers be as expensive as they are, non serial numbered and shiny? Silver cards look nice but how many are printed? 300, 400, 2,000??? NO ONE knows (except Panini) and never will. Don't collectors realize that except for rookies no cares about silver prizm base?
Too many parallels yes, get over it. There is NO logical reason why ANY card /99 isn't worth SIGNIFICANTLY more than a silver prizm.
With the pricing of a Ben Simmons "silver" at roughly 2K (can buy a sweet MJ rookie, just the GOAT but what does that matter) how much should a /10 Gold sell for $40-50K???, the Black 1/1 should be 100K! This reminds me of rookie chasing and hoarding in the 80's (how'd that turn out).
Sorry but insanity is driving 17/18 out of the gate prices into stupid vile. 17/18 Jayson Tatum HOOPS (YES HOOPS) auto north of $150. Last year Jaylen Brown autos sold between $20-40 for most of the year. Does it matter that Basketball production maybe more "limited" than last year? Define limited. Someone might do the math but without official Panini print runs we'll never know.
My advice calm down, chill, or else you'l lose a lot of money. I'm just going to sit back and watch the madness. Any player is one injury away from making your cardboard worthless.
BTW, thank you fellow maniacs for breaking 17/18 product: you are saving me a ton of work sorting. Seems like we aren't much different than the losers scratching lotto tixs at the packie looking to strike it rich! Rant over.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I could see them sell for more than the Orange /199. Maybe the Red /99.

The issue is that collectors see the Silvers/Holos as the standard while many of the colors just blend together.

Sort of like the reason why base prizm will sell for more than sets like Grand Reserve, etc, even though there are many, many more prizms out there.

I think this might change if they keep it consistent - keep the same print run and have the same colors.

With Prizm, they've been all over the place. Only colors that kept their print run since release have been Golds (and they even create 2 versions at one point) and Blacks (same). Rest have been:

- Light Blue: 199, 49, 199
- Purple: 49, 139, 99
- Orange: 60, 139, 65
- Red: Unnumbered, 25-50 (2 versions), 350

I don't even know 16-17 numbers but something tells me they were over the place too. They've done a terrible job at keeping the other parallels consistent.

[smalltown]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I think this might change if they keep it consistent - keep the same print run and have the same colors.

With Prizm, they've been all over the place. Only colors that kept their print run since release have been Golds (and they even create 2 versions at one point) and Blacks (same). Rest have been:

- Light Blue: 199, 49, 199
- Purple: 49, 139, 99
- Orange: 60, 139, 65
- Red: Unnumbered, 25-50 (2 versions), 350

I don't even know 16-17 numbers but something tells me they were over the place too. They've done a terrible job at keeping the other parallels consistent.

I don't think we'll ever see consistent numbering on anything #'d over 10. They use those parallels to stretch print runs. I'd rather they drop the numbering on parallels over /99 altogether. I mean does it really matter in the end if something is numbered /149 vs /199.

In a perfect world for me. /1, /10, /25 & /99. Anything else would be unnumbered.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by smalltown

I don't think we'll ever see consistent numbering on anything #'d over 10. They use those parallels to stretch print runs. I'd rather they drop the numbering on parallels over /99 altogether. I mean does it really matter in the end if something is numbered /149 vs /199.

In a perfect world for me. /1, /10, /25 & /99. Anything else would be unnumbered.

I see where you're coming from but I have a slightly different perspective. Have one high-numbered parallel, one SP and the rest SSP. Something like:

- Light Blue: 199
- Purple: 99 (hobby exclusive)
- Orange: 60 (jumbo exclusive)
- Gold: 10
- Black: 1

Keep Green retail exclusive. Make RWB or Starbust Rack-Pack exclusive and another color (say, Red) Blaster exclusive (and unnumbered). Silver is in both hobby and retail and it should be the only unnumbered prizm in hobby.

Make it somewhere between 13-14 and 15-16. Say, 8 prizms per box with 2 numbered ones at least. That includes inserts. Having 6 silver means you get less than a Silver RC per box but you also have a decent shot at a numbered colored one.

Regardless, what they need to stop doing is: have "pulsar" versions of the same color (14-15) and having Die-cuts (13-14 and 14-15). I think a mix between 12-13 and 15-16 should be the way to go now.

[Giantrobot]

Multiple color parallels are the next jersey card.....collectors are already tuning them out, and hopefully Panini will respond by limiting how many different ones they do.

[SteveO21]

Originally Posted by Giantrobot

Multiple color parallels are the next jersey card.....collectors are already tuning them out, and hopefully Panini will respond by limiting how many different ones they do.

It definitely seems like you see a lot less people chasing "rainbows" these days. Had Panini stuck with the original configuration of Prizm parallels (base, silver, green-retail, Gold /10) I think they would all hold a lot more value these days.

[istheskyblew]

I'm sitting on a couple of Optic Hobby cases and have been struggling to not rip them open this past week

[smalltown]

Originally Posted by istheskyblew

I'm sitting on a couple of Optic Hobby cases and have been struggling to not rip them open this past week

I'm in the opinion of keep one, rip one!

[satori]

I think that in the long run a serial numbered card is the safer bet. 10, 15, 20 years from now can you expect the average collector to have any idea of how many non-serial numbered silvers were released? Even now we are all just guessing at the print run. But if the average collector can see that a card is #/49 or #/99, there's no guessing and I would assume that they would be more inclined to spend $ on a sure thing (print run wise).

[Pennyoka]

Edit: Apologies my reading comprehension is bad. The response below relates more to silver vs. color in general than just in Optic.

In discussions about the value of silver versus other colors, I think people sometimes forget the second part of the law of supply and demand. Everybody is quick to point out the supply (serially numbered to this) but don’t reflect on the demand factor as much. True, there are fewer copies of the colored parallels but there is also far less demand. In general, collectors, investors, and speculators see the silver versions as “the standard” card to have, so even though there are more silvers to go around, it is still far less than the amount of people that want them in their collection.

Personally, I am only interested in the base and silver versions, I’m sure there are many other collectors that share my sentiment. Echoing what another member said, there are so many other colors and variations now that they all just blend together and I find myself not wanting any of them. You will only have a handful of hardcore hobbyists and player collectors going after the “rainbow” while everybody else just wants the silver versions. I wouldn’t be surprised if the silvers continue to hold value better than all but the most limited colored parallels. Just my opinion.

[imb4]

Originally Posted by Pennyoka

Edit: Apologies my reading comprehension is bad. The response below relates more to silver vs. color in general than just in Optic.

That's okay, your point is true and important.

[HP7163]

Originally Posted by imb4

Except purple prizms, right?

Was kidding about dime a dozen but any idea of the possible print run on these?

[deemsterz33]

Originally Posted by Pennyoka

Edit: Apologies my reading comprehension is bad. The response below relates more to silver vs. color in general than just in Optic.

In discussions about the value of silver versus other colors, I think people sometimes forget the second part of the law of supply and demand. Everybody is quick to point out the supply (serially numbered to this) but don’t reflect on the demand factor as much. True, there are fewer copies of the colored parallels but there is also far less demand. In general, collectors, investors, and speculators see the silver versions as “the standard” card to have, so even though there are more silvers to go around, it is still far less than the amount of people that want them in their collection.

Personally, I am only interested in the base and silver versions, I’m sure there are many other collectors that share my sentiment. Echoing what another member said, there are so many other colors and variations now that they all just blend together and I find myself not wanting any of them. You will only have a handful of hardcore hobbyists and player collectors going after the “rainbow” while everybody else just wants the silver versions. I wouldn’t be surprised if the silvers continue to hold value better than all but the most limited colored parallels. Just my opinion.

Nailed it on the head. I'm tired of people saying something to the effect of: " That Vomit Yellow parallel should be worth more than the Silver, because it's /99, and the only thing that matters is scarcity."

[deemsterz33]

Originally Posted by Oldschool42

Seems to me that collectors, excuse me speculators, are driving the hype train HARD. No way should base silvers be as expensive as they are, non serial numbered and shiny? Silver cards look nice but how many are printed? 300, 400, 2,000??? NO ONE knows (except Panini) and never will. Don't collectors realize that except for rookies no cares about silver prizm base?
Too many parallels yes, get over it. There is NO logical reason why ANY card /99 isn't worth SIGNIFICANTLY more than a silver prizm.
With the pricing of a Ben Simmons "silver" at roughly 2K (can buy a sweet MJ rookie, just the GOAT but what does that matter) how much should a /10 Gold sell for $40-50K???, the Black 1/1 should be 100K! This reminds me of rookie chasing and hoarding in the 80's (how'd that turn out).
Sorry but insanity is driving 17/18 out of the gate prices into stupid vile. 17/18 Jayson Tatum HOOPS (YES HOOPS) auto north of $150. Last year Jaylen Brown autos sold between $20-40 for most of the year. Does it matter that Basketball production maybe more "limited" than last year? Define limited. Someone might do the math but without official Panini print runs we'll never know.
My advice calm down, chill, or else you'l lose a lot of money. I'm just going to sit back and watch the madness. Any player is one injury away from making your cardboard worthless.
BTW, thank you fellow maniacs for breaking 17/18 product: you are saving me a ton of work sorting. Seems like we aren't much different than the losers scratching lotto tixs at the packie looking to strike it rich! Rant over.

The sooner that you accept that the market is a living, breathing entity, in which a lot of trends don't make sense on paper, the sooner you'll stop banging your head against the wall about this.