Which is MOST overvalued right now???

[StraWMyerS]

Is the $$ flowing into the hobby sustainable with the high priced chrome autos? Obviously most will rise and fall but how long does the Trout effect keep justifying the 100+ base chrome autos for top prospects... is it the new normal?... or will there be a regression sometime soon? Did Judge and Bellinger buy us a few more years of this? Or are the balls juiced and pitching so bad that everyone will be hitting 30+ and the bottom drops out in the market?

I thought it would be interesting to hear some opinions... but let's not stop there. There are a wide range of assets that are feared to be overvalued right now... the stock market and the crypto markets getting the most attention. So what is the most overvalued??

[Archangel1775]

I can't quote actual sale prices but any prospect that does something good,their chrome autos and up on the Bay at certain price points. Same with basketball. $50,$100,$300,$500,$800,$1000,$1500,$2000....and now I am seeing $5000 asking prices. It's almost delusional

[ThoseBackPages]

"how much" IS $100 nowadays?

seriously, go to starbucks, is it possible to spend less then $6?

buy a blaster, $20(plus tax), hobby packs at the LCS(if you even have one), how much?

yea yea yea, one can buy cheap coffey and wax online, but you get what im saying

[StraWMyerS]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

"how much" IS $100 nowadays?

seriously, go to starbucks, is it possible to spend less then $6?

buy a blaster, $20(plus tax), hobby packs at the LCS(if you even have one), how much?

yea yea yea, one can buy cheap coffey and wax online, but you get what im saying

Definitely get it but the way guys now are hitting the 150-300+ range for base in the offseason... I remember buying a Seager gem refractor for 105 a few years back, buying a Correa blue gem for under 450 ... I mean these were the top prospects.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by StraWMyerS

Definitely get it but the way guys now are hitting the 150-300+ range for base in the offseason... I remember buying a Seager gem refractor for 105 a few years back, buying a Correa blue gem for under 450 ... I mean these were the top prospects.

absolutely!

the scary part is that you can probably go back and buy KB/Seager/Correa's cheaper then these prospects! LOL

KB has ROY/MVP/RING
Correa has ROY/RING
Seager has ROY

[unclemonkey]

Stock market... yes and no. Higher floor. Far more predictable long term.

Don't know what the crypto market is... is it Bitcoin? Don't fight the feds or in this case World governments.

Prospects... a single penny stock in an already small and unregulated and easy to manipulate market place.

[OC22]

Crypto market. Card prices are high, but whatever. Stock market is trading at historical highs, but there's at least some reasoning for that. Crypto market is pure speculation. Once the government(s) step in and create some sort of regulation (which they absolutely will at some point), the crypto market will crumble.

[moosetequila]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

I can't quote actual sale prices but any prospect that does something good,their chrome autos and up on the Bay at certain price points. Same with basketball. $50,$100,$300,$500,$800,$1000,$1500,$2000....and now I am seeing $5000 asking prices. It's almost delusional

The TF... Trout Factor, it will fade eventually, the best you can hope for is to buy into a player not everyone else is, then they go off and you can sell into the madness.

[StraWMyerS]

Originally Posted by OC22

Crypto market. Card prices are high, but whatever. Stock market is trading at historical highs, but there's at least some reasoning for that. Crypto market is pure speculation. Once the government(s) step in and create some sort of regulation (which they absolutely will at some point), the crypto market will crumble.

See that's what I thought in the beginning, that it'd be effectively outlawed a long time ago which why I steered clear. Now I'm thinking I shouldve rode the wave. At this point I think Bitcoin is way too high but other cryptos are worth speculating on.

Originally Posted by moosetequila

The TF... Trout Factor, it will fade eventually, the best you can hope for is to buy into a player not everyone else is, then they go off and you can sell into the madness.

Agreed, this is my thought process with guys like Tyler O'Neill and Jake Bauers.

[caflisch78]

All of them. The economy is flourishing, jobless rates are low, interest rates are lower, lots of expendable income drives prices higher in all platforms. Once we fall into a recession, all are likely to be affected as a result. Crypto will likely be the most affected imo.

[Archangel1775]

Crypto fluctuates like mad. It was trading at $1200+ in 2013 and the bottom fell out when Mt Gox shut down. It was down to $200 in 2014/15 and we now know where it stands. It's a very high risk investment

[StraWMyerS]

Originally Posted by caflisch78

All of them. The economy is flourishing, jobless rates are low, interest rates are lower, lots of expendable income drives prices higher in all platforms. Once we fall into a recession, all are likely to be affected as a result. Crypto will likely be the most affected imo.

Yes, almost everything is overvalued for this reason. Although gold and silver have really not seen a significant positive move while everything else has appreciated. The main reason for this is the futures market which controls the price, but it is still the safest bet, with some huge upside. The downside is that it often becomes the play only when the economy is in sorry shape.

[patchgenie]

some stupid dumb fake coins for sure. the lemmings are going full speed ahead there. at least with prospects it could be your favorite team or player to follow.

[caflisch78]

Originally Posted by StraWMyerS

Yes, almost everything is overvalued for this reason. Although gold and silver have really not seen a significant positive move while everything else has appreciated. The main reason for this is the futures market which controls the price, but it is still the safest bet, with some huge upside. The downside is that it often becomes the play only when the economy is in sorry shape.

Yes, imo real estate could have been added to this list as well. They are all commodities impacted by changes in the market. With a recession, all will be impacted, alas some more then others. Guessing that answer is the biggest question none of us have the answers to. I can tell you that I own a part of everything, except crypto. Gold/Silver have practical uses in semi conducting, electronic manufacturing, etc. whereas crypto has no alternative functions other then being a potential future currency type, with whom's success will ultimately destroy banks and paper money, therefor I don't put a lot of trust into it personally.

[Darth Bryzzo]

How about the fine art (specifically, painting) market trumping them all?

$450 million for a DaVinci that not nearly everyone agrees is a real DaVinci. And beyond that most recent eye-popping example, $200 million or more in recent years not for Raphaels or van Goghs or Vermeers or Rembrandts, but for de Kooning and Gaugin. And well over $150 million for guys like Klimt, Lichtenstein, and Modigliani (all of whose stuff I generally love, but still can’t believe those prices).

There’s crazy, bubbly asset inflation everywhere. Folks with more cash are chasing returns not available in more traditional asset classes right now and/or just want to buy a bunch of stuff they like and want to own (at least for a time). The pendulum will swing violently the other way in time. It always does. And then there will be great buying opportunities in lots of “markets” for those with accessible cash.

Btw, in this poll of limited choices, I voted for the prospect cards, mostly just bc I’m so annoyed with the “rip it and flip it (but only after slabbing it)” culture in this hobby right now. But while all of the three choices seem overvalued, truth be told, I think the crypto-currencies are actually the worst.

[OC22]

Originally Posted by StraWMyerS

See that's what I thought in the beginning, that it'd be effectively outlawed a long time ago which why I steered clear. Now I'm thinking I shouldve rode the wave. At this point I think Bitcoin is way too high but other cryptos are worth speculating on.

Sure, but as others have mentioned, cryptocurrency is just another currency. It's just not regulated at the moment, but the government always finds a way to get its cut. Once the regulations come into play, the value of the commodity will decrease dramatically to put it in line with its actual value. The percentage decrease of crypto if/when this happens vs. the stock market, even in a very serious crash, will be massive.

[DaaaaBears]

Who uses Bitcoin anyways? Drug dealers and money launderers? Why do we even need it to be honest? To go on sites like Silk Road to make purchases? It's all too murky and seems to benefit people trying to hide their tracks - no thanks

[caflisch78]

Originally Posted by DaaaaBears

Who uses Bitcoin anyways? Drug dealers and money launderers? Why do we even need it to be honest? To go on sites like Silk Road to make purchases? It's all too murky and seems to benefit people trying to hide their tracks - no thanks

In a sense. It's a form of "currency" that allows any user at any point in time to send $ to another party with no real aspect of control. Great for the markets you pointed out, a lot more seamless then cash/credit, etc with no fees or overhead. Makes sense in some cases but it would literally destroy the value of the dollar, which in essence would corrupt the entire financial institution. Far too millennial of a thought for me to comprehend. Then again, I may be left on the outside looking in if Bitcoin ever hits 100k or more as i've heard some analyst project. If Bitcoin were to completely erase paper money, each coin would effectively have to hold over a million dollars each in value to be comparable. The idea is fun, I just don't have enough money to buy prospect autos, real estate, stocks, precious metals, and crypto currency.

[hornedfrog1985]

Should tell people there is certainly two different classes of people. One is growing their wealth exponentially, inflation rising. The others debt rising, stagnant wages, no savings, etc.

Its the 1920s all over imo. When i see $75 cheesecakes at the grocery store, hear apple has 300 million sitting in a bank offshore its not hard to figure out. One group of people has all the water and it doesnt trickle a whole lot. Hope everyone is ready for this bubble to pop

[caflisch78]

The richest 1% of the world's population now owns 50% of its total wealth, according to a report by Credit Suisse. Worldwide, there are 34 million people who have a U.S. dollar net worth of at least $1 million, or 0.7% of the global adult population, and they account for 45% of global wealth. - Oct 14, 2015

And that was 2 full years ago.... over 5k points ago in the stock market. Rich getting richer, poor getting poorer.

[StraWMyerS]

Originally Posted by caflisch78

The richest 1% of the world's population now owns 50% of its total wealth, according to a report by Credit Suisse. Worldwide, there are 34 million people who have a U.S. dollar net worth of at least $1 million, or 0.7% of the global adult population, and they account for 45% of global wealth. - Oct 14, 2015

And that was 2 full years ago.... over 5k points ago in the stock market. Rich getting richer, poor getting poorer.

And then they make it a capitalism vs. socialism argument, never mind that politicians use elements of each that favor the elite and corporate interests, and everything is spun through media so no one ever focuses on the true oppressors... but alas, we don't want to bring this too deep into politicalville.

[adamsbetter]

The more you read about crypto currency the less you'll understand, lol.

That said, I own a couple bitcoin that I got in at around $3200 and I bought a lot of litecoin at $40. The bottom almost certainly has to fall out at some point but I resisted selling the bitcoin at $6500 because I was told it would be over $10K by years end and that looks like a safe bet now. I'm hanging on to the litecoin.

[marlinsmaniac20]

Originally Posted by adamsbetter

The more you read about crypto currency the less you'll understand, lol.

That said, I own a couple bitcoin that I got in at around $3200 and I bought a lot of litecoin at $40. The bottom almost certainly has to fall out at some point but I resisted selling the bitcoin at $6500 because I was told it would be over $10K by years end and that looks like a safe bet now. I'm hanging on to the litecoin.

I did a technical analysis on BTC, I have a price target of 12k by April, HODL

[base set]

Gauguin >> de Kooning, and his association with van Gogh does not hurt his prices at all

[Darth Bryzzo]

Originally Posted by base set

Gauguin >> de Kooning, and his association with van Gogh does not hurt his prices at all

Off topic:

But he’s still not even close to van Gogh himself, let alone many other notable masters.

I personally hate most of Gaugin’s stuff, though wouldn’t argue he was bereft of talent. But in any event, there is no way anything of his should be selling for over $200 million, when many, many greater painters have not had anything sell nearly that high (at least not yet).

Of course, some of this is impacted by how few pieces there are in private hands for certain mega-artists. That certainly drove the DaVinci price. Same would be true for guys like Raphael, Vermeer, etc. Most of the pre-1800 master stuff is in museums at this point, so if any of the few pieces still in private hands come up for sale, they are going to go for insane amounts. That same removal effect also drives up some of the later guys, as there are still pieces of theirs out there, but more and more are migrating to museums, so the big art money is overly chasing the ones that aren’t yet permanently locked up.

But that still doesn’t explain the de Kooning sale to me. Think there was a crazy Lucien Freud triptych sale to Steve Wynn’s ex, too, a few years ago that didn’t make any sense to me. If anyone fetched those prices from that period, I’d expect it to be Pollock (who, fwiw, I think is insanely overrated).

Cezanne’s “The Card Players” for $250 million I sorta get, though still seems a little steep.

If I had unlimited billions and could buy anything art-related that I wanted, regardless of where it currently is, I’d have some tough choices between some Raphael stuff and some Hieronymous Bosch stuff. I like many, many other painters, especially in the period of about 1880-1940, but in terms of the Dutch and Italian Renaissance era, those are my two faves.