What is the youngest age someone will make their MLB debut at over the next 50 years?

[Hollywood42]

Over the past 20+ years, the MLB has seemingly trended to consist of younger and younger players. Very rarely do guys play into their 40s anymore, and it's pretty common to start seeing players decline by their early to mid 30s. At the same time, the MLB has experienced a huge influx of players that are incredibly good, but started incredibly young- Trout, Harper, Bryant, Correa, Soto, Bellinger, the list goes on and on.

It hasn't been uncommon for the MLB to see a player making their debut at just 19 years old. This year Juan Soto did it, Julio Urias did it in 2016, Harper, Trout, and Profar were all 19 in 2011/2012, and even Madison Bumgarner debuted as a 19 year old back in 2009. In fact, there's not a decade in the history of the MLB where someone hasn't debuted at 19 or younger.

Let's look at 18 year olds. The last time we saw someone make their debut that young was Alex Rodriguez in 1994. Before that, you have to go back to the '70s before you see players doing that at a fairly decent rate. The farther back in history you go, the more common it was for players to be debuting at 19, 18, 17, and even 16 years old. That's certainly due to the nature of the game back in the day, but it's still pretty incredible.

All that got me thinking- What is the youngest age we'll see someone debut in the MLB over the next 50 years? While the game has certainly gotten younger and is filled with players having their prime years in their mid to late 20s rather than late 20s to early 30s, the MLB actually has a long history of players debuting at 19. I will say that it is pretty incredible how well some of the recent 19 year old rookies have played- Guys like Trout, Harper, Soto, and so on have been playing at a high level since close to day 1.

It's probably safe to say we'll continue to see 19 year olds debut. At the very least, it'll remain common for a young prospect to get a cup of tea as a September callup. But will we see an 18 year old debut again, the first since '94? Probably eventually, I'd think. How about a 17 year old, which hasn't happened since 1964? If so, where will it stop? It's already crazy to think of an 18 or 19 year old kid facing off against the best of the best in the world, but it happens. It gets less and less common the younger you are, but where will it stop?

Just a little interesting topic I thought of and figured I'd get some opinions from the BO community. Here's a Baseball Reference page I used a lot when getting some of the info I shared in this post.

[Peties Army]

I voted 18, but I would probably change it to 17 if I thought a little bit more about it

At some point a foreign player will be so good at 16/17 he can’t be stopped from making. 50 years is a long time.

[discostu]

Not sure the age, but I'm confident that no teen will ever have the same success as Bob Feller did in his first start at the ripe age of 17.

[Hollywood42]

I voted 18 myself. 19 is actually really common, but it's a big step to go from a 19 YO debut to a 18 YO debut. I do think we'll see another 17 YO debut again at some point, I just don't know when. It's such a difficult and rare feat, there's no telling when it would happen. Eventually, very likely, but no way to tell if it's within the next 10 years or next 100

[LCM1223]

Maybe one 17-yr old debut over the next 50

But a couple 18-yr old debuts more likely



Too lazy to check, wasn’t Robin Yount a really young debut?

[no10pin]

Originally Posted by LCM1223

Maybe one 17-yr old debut over the next 50

But a couple 18-yr old debuts more likely



Too lazy to check, wasn’t Robin Yount a really young debut?

Yep, Yount was 18.

I picked 17 because I think someday one of the 16-year-old international signings will be a phenom and make it on a September callup the next year.

[ThaReal1]

His injury really killed the momentum but Urias was about to do something special at a very young age. To pitch and be that good at 18 was impressive.

[smapdi]

I could see an Acuna- or Devers-like guy coming from overseas, signing at 16, then over the course of the next year destroying rookie ball, then A-ball, then doing well at double-A, then getting a callup for the last weekend of the season for a bad team with nothing else exciting going on. The only trouble with that is something to do with contracts and service time. Maybe it's different now, but that used to be a big reason why rookies who might ordinarily make a club out of spring training are kept on the farm for a couple extra weeks, it gives the club a whole extra year of control before arb/free agency.

[Craiggysanford]

I voted 17. If Tebow can potentially make the Mets Roster by 2020, I don't see why a club wouldnt prematurely promote a 17 yr old to fill some seats. I'm not trying to take away from Tebows talent. I just think it's a gimmick that takes a spot away from someone that probably "deserves" it more.

[TheVolta]

I voted 17.
Also, Bumgarner was actually 20 for his MLB debut.

[Hollywood42]

Looks like you're right, the BBRef page I listed in the OP has him down for debuting at 19, but his player page shows he was 20

Originally Posted by TheVolta

I voted 17.
Also, Bumgarner was actually 20 for his MLB debut.

[ScooterD]

50 years is a LONG time - I’ll go with 18.

Last AL debut at 18 was AROD in ‘94. Last in the NL was Brian Greer in ‘78.

Any younger than that is either a publicity stunt or because of war. Nowadays, the players aren’t serving, so I don’t see anyone under 18 in 50 years.

[RW3FAN]

Felix Hernandez: August 4, 2005
At 19 years, 118 days, he was the youngest pitcher to appear in the major leagues since José Rijo in 1984.

I think you could have 2 categories.
Pitching at a young age is very different than just hitting.

[oldgoldy97]

They’ll say he’s 16 on his hand written birth certificate but in actuality he’ll be 22.

[no10pin]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

They’ll say he’s 16 on his hand written birth certificate but in actuality he’ll be 22.