2011 Topps Update Mike Trout Target Red Print Run

[pcptrade]

A 2011 Topps Update Target Red PSA 10 will be up for auction on ebay soon (10/13/18) in case if anyone is interested. Does anyone know the actual print run for target Red?

Here is the pop from last year (source- taken from the following post- https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1104898)

Target Red-
PSA= 17
BGS= 24
Combined= 41 total

Here is the Current pop report (as of 10/11/2018)

PSA= 26 (compared to 17 from Apr 2017)
BGS=54 (compared to 24 from Apr 2017)
Total: 80 (compared to 41 from Apr 2017)

The population of graded cards have gone up almost 100% from last year. I guess my question is Target Red that rare/scarce and desirable to command such a high premium? True gem mint (quad 9.5 subs) sold for $6800 and a gem mint (three 9.5, one 9.0 subs) sold for 6000 this year in Apr-May by PWCC). It will be interesting to see if the recent decline in Trout's card prices over the past few months have any impact on the Target Red PSA 10 sale price or is it one of those rare??/desirable cards where the recent decline in prices does not have much impact on the sale price.

Trout 2011 Topps Update Target Red by pcp trade, on Flickr

[wadedaniel84]

It kills my soul to know I had one of these that I sold for $100 along with a blue in late 11.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by wadedaniel84

It kills my soul to know I had one of these that I sold for $100 along with a blue in late 11.

$100 Was it raw or graded?

[danimal875]

My guess is +/- 200 total. It is already a very condition sensitive card, so there are probably quite a few that would never be sent in.

[smapdi]

For cards like this you want to look at the breakdown of individual grades. I'd bet the farm that a significant number were 8s and 9s resubbed to get a bump. While there's no way to know for sure, if the number of 10s stayed fairly stable and 8/9 jumped 100%, it could be a good indicator.

But yeah, it's a rare card. They only did a couple waves of shipments, IIRC, so there are probably not more than a thousand copies out there, if that.

Also, Trout cards have gone down? I don't follow super closely but I'd guess it's a combination of Angels being bad, an overheated market finally hitting a ceiling people are willing or able to pay, and possibly some selling off making greater availability.

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by danimal875

My guess is +/- 200 total. It is already a very condition sensitive card, so there are probably quite a few that would never be sent in.

I'd bet there are more than that. If 80 have already been graded that would be 40% if the entire printrun. Is that nornal? I'd be surprised if there are any non-numbered cards that have that high a percentage.

I could be wrong, but I think someone did the same assessment for the 2013 Arenado and came to about 2-3k. Not sure if 2013 had a higher printing though.

[Bcwcardz]

Originally Posted by wadedaniel84

It kills my soul to know I had one of these that I sold for $100 along with a blue in late 11.

9 out of 10 people here would have done the same thing. Don’t feel bad.


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[Bcwcardz]

I really don’t think you can go by the graded total. It’s helpful to look at but how many have been cracked out and regraded?


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[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by smapdi

For cards like this you want to look at the breakdown of individual grades. I'd bet the farm that a significant number were 8s and 9s resubbed to get a bump. While there's no way to know for sure, if the number of 10s stayed fairly stable and 8/9 jumped 100%, it could be a good indicator.

But yeah, it's a rare card. They only did a couple waves of shipments, IIRC, so there are probably not more than a thousand copies out there, if that.

Also, Trout cards have gone down? I don't follow super closely but I'd guess it's a combination of Angels being bad, an overheated market finally hitting a ceiling people are willing or able to pay, and possibly some selling off making greater availability.

You bring up a good point. Resubmission (crossover, crack and resubmission) could have an impact on the total population of graded cards.

PSA pop report for target Red can be found in the link below-

https://www.psacard.com/pop/baseball...-update/100690


Here is the BGS pop report

Trout 2011 Topps Update Target Red BGS Pop Report by pcp trade, on Flickr

Unfortunately, I do not have breakdown of individual grades from last year. Now that I know the breakdown of individual grades from this year, it will be easy to track it going forward.

[mlbexpert]

If you search the forum, there is already a really good analysis comparing Update parallel print runs including the Target red from a couple years back. Cheers

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by mlbexpert

If you search the forum, there is already a really good analysis comparing Update parallel print runs including the Target red from a couple years back. Cheers

Will do. Thank you

[DarkTiger29]

Originally Posted by wadedaniel84

It kills my soul to know I had one of these that I sold for $100 along with a blue in late 11.

I sold 6 base for $65 total so I feel your pain

[fitefanSHO]

These Trout that got away stories are awful but funny.

[speedyjg13]

Could the 100% pop increase, the OP claims, be resubs? And the # are inflated?

[JWBlue]

Originally Posted by wadedaniel84

It kills my soul to know I had one of these that I sold for $100 along with a blue in late 11.

I wouldn't feel too bad though. I have made bad stock decisions that probably dwarf that loss.

Everyone does at some point in life.

[bwalter1]

Originally Posted by Bcwcardz

I really don’t think you can go by the graded total. It’s helpful to look at but how many have been cracked out and regraded?


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You won't be able to get a print from graded because of resubs and crossovers. I would look at the full set and see graded for other players too and compare. I bet the Trout has the highest graded but are the other players in the set that also have a lot of subs?

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by speedyjg13

Could the 100% pop increase, the OP claims, be resubs? And the # are inflated?

The only way to solve this resubs/crossover puzzle is 1. The card should have been numbered to begin with and 2. PSA and BGS should start including the card number in their pop report and serial # lookup database, which currently doesn't exist .

Unfortunately, Target red border is not numbered. So we might never know the answer.

[abide]

has anyone done a regression analysis?

I would think a reasonable range of the print run could be deduced based on the population of
Target Red v Walmart blue V diamond sparkle
and then finally v Gold #/2011

and combine that data with the insert rates which were published.
most years the insert rate is 1 per 3 [I think]

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by abide

has anyone done a regression analysis?

I would think a reasonable range of the print run could be deduced based on the population of
Target Red v Walmart blue V diamond sparkle
and then finally v Gold #/2011

and combine that data with the insert rates which were published.
most years the insert rate is 1 per 3 [I think]

Great point! However, for regression analysis, we need the the population of walmart blue and diamond sparkle which if I am not wrong are also not know exactly.

[danimal875]

Originally Posted by JWBlue

I wouldn't feel too bad though. I have made bad stock decisions that probably dwarf that loss.

Everyone does at some point in life.

I sold a 50+ count lot of Update RCs, Chrome Refractors, Chrome Draft and Chrome Regular for just over $250... Must have been at least 10 updates and a couple anniversary parallels, I opened up a ton of Value boxes.

[speedyjg13]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Great point! However, for regression analysis, we need the the population of walmart blue and diamond sparkle which if I am not wrong are also not know exactly.

Anyone here nerdy enough to figure this out? And I say nerdy in a good way

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by speedyjg13

Anyone here nerdy enough to figure this out? And I say nerdy in a good way

Okay, since English is not my first language, I will try my best to explain this. Regression analysis looks at the relationship between variables, how one variable has an effect on other, similar to correlation. Variable can be dependent and independent. With regards to Target Red Border, if one knows the population of Walmart Blue, Diamond Sparkle and Gold, one can deduct the approximate population number for Target Red Border based on the ratio they were inserted. The parallels in the pack are variables, which are Target Red Border, Walmart Blue, Diamond Sparkle, Gold etc. Perhaps someone else who is good in explaining can do a better job than me.

Some people here have called me tard, sorry if I sound like one to you.

[pcptrade]

Forgot to mention, Target Red Border is the dependent variable here whose print number we are trying to find. If we had known the population of Walmart Blue and Diamond Sparkle, those would be independent variables. The ratio of insertion will give us information of how Independent Variables such as the population of Walmart Blue and Diamond Sparkle would have affected the population of Target Red border, which would give us the approximate print run.

[jjeanius]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Okay, since English is not my first language, I will try my best to explain this. Regression analysis looks at the relationship between variables, how one variable has an effect on other, similar to correlation. Variable can be dependent and independent. With regards to Target Red Border, if one knows the population of Walmart Blue, Diamond Sparkle and Gold, one can deduct the approximate population number for Target Red Border based on the ratio they were inserted. The parallels in the pack are variables, which are Target Red Border, Walmart Blue, Diamond Sparkle, Gold etc. Perhaps someone else who is good in explaining can do a better job than me.

Forgot to mention, Target Red Border is the dependent variable here whose print number we are trying to find. If we had known the population of Walmart Blue and Diamond Sparkle, those would be independent variables. The ratio of insertion will give us information of how Independent Variables such as the population of Walmart Blue and Diamond Sparkle would have affected the population of Target Red border, which would give us the approximate print run.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by jjeanius

"Haters don't like you but they follow you religiously"

LOL, I was waiting for this. I knew you will come here. Your behavior is very predictable.

Is this an indirect invitation for me to come to Mike Trout's Thread because there is nothing else to discuss there and its boring?

Any reason why you purposefully omitted the following sentence in your quote?- "Some people here have called me tard, sorry if I sound like one to you." I guess we both know the answer to that!


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