25 years in the Future.....Baseball Cards Opinion

[wilsonjust]

The year is 2044. Which of the below do you think has occurred in the past 25 years and is the current state or something completely different

1. Could everybody still be chasing the 1st Chrome auto of the hyped prospects? BASE autos opening at $1000 for the hyped guys?

2. Flagship rookies and parallels have taken over and is the most sought after cards?

3. Pre-1980 Graded vintage (Mantle/Clemente/etc) has continued to go higher and higher and is insane price wise.

4. Cardboard is dead and everything is electronic and on somebody's phone?

We'll say the Stock Market hasn't crashed and the economy is stable throughout those 25 years.

[premium1981]

1. Will not happen. The hobby will trend a different direction.
2. Could happen depending on production increases going forward.
3. Will happen.
4. Will not happen. There will always be collectors.

The problem super-long term (50 years) is that once all the kids from the 80's & 90's start dying off, how many collectors will remain? The hobby is strong right now, because all of those kids that bought cards during the overproduction years (late 80s and early 90s) are now established adults with discretionary funds to play with. I was born in 81 and fall into this category. Will kids being born today do the same? Doubtful, but you never know.

[Frankp2311]

Originally Posted by premium1981

1. Will not happen. The hobby will trend a different direction.
2. Could happen depending on production increases going forward.
3. Will happen.
4. Will not happen. There will always be collectors.

The problem super-long term (50 years) is that once all the kids from the 80's & 90's start dying off, how many collectors will remain? The hobby is strong right now, because all of those kids that bought cards during the overproduction years (late 80s and early 90s) are now established adults with discretionary funds to play with. I was born in 81 and fall into this category. Will kids being born today do the same? Doubtful, but you never know.

I think what you say here is what really will determine the future of sports cards. I also was born in 81 but my kids, as much as I’ve tried, have zero interest. When I was my sons age I was huge into cards. His generation seems to be into the electronics. Not sure the last age group that had a large interest in sports cards. The other problem is that you have these companies charging too much for kids to get a taste of opening packs up. That’s truly where the fun is for kids just starting to collect. Not sure how this plays out 30 years from now?

[WillBaseball]

Super interesting question. So hard to say. The game is seemingly in such flux itself. 17 we had juiced balls and more homers than ever. 18 had the most strikeouts. More tanking teams than ever- this almost definitely has to change soon. Teams getting way younger. Wouldn’t surprise me if (another more futuristic cocktail) juice scandal is exposed to be mass-used. Topps seems to print more and more. More breaks every day, prices keep going up, LCS’s shutting down and leaning heavy on battle cards and collectibles to stay afloat. Does topps keep the license? Does the game, for arguments sake not change much from how it is now? And Hypothetically topps prints the same or less moving forward with no more new products? Then it would stay the same; answer 1.

Also too, what if this new gen trout/harper/bryant/machado/judge/ohtani/soto, younger super prospect batch start falling off in their finally get paid early 30’s contracts... I’d say similar to another guy OP collects; Pujols, the next Ted Williams who was but then wasn’t, but we all know Albert is really 53 years old.

Realistically, there will be some drastic changes before then, so maybe some form of answer 2 with a lot less people interested.

[ThoseBackPages]

i think its possible

[JUNKWAX]

I got back into the card collecting game after being away for about 20 years. From the time I left till the time I came back everything had changed! The card stock had changed, chase cards had changed, most of the brands were owned by someone else, exclusive license's, size of packs, size of boxes, LCS all but gone, serial numbering, relics, bats, jerseys, and most of all the cost of the hobby its self! It all changed!

That's what I would expect in the next 25 years is for the collectors today to look back and see everything had changed as well. In what ways remains to be seen.

I know when I got back into card collecting I thought it was pretty much dead because of how cheap I could buy what were once highly sought after cards. What I learned is that the focus had shifted to either vintage or current production and not much in between which is where my focus was. On top of that grading had squashed the value of raw. I was a little shocked when I found this forum and saw how many collectors were still out there because for awhile I thought I was all alone out there in the card world.

In the next 25 years things will change just as dramatically. It will be a wild ride for those still in the game that long.

[discostu]

If you think you can predict anything 25 years ahead, you're in good shape. But don't waste a second prognosticating about cards.

25 years ago, the hobby was still a "big deal," now it's a much smaller market. Dollars are greater simply due to overall costs, but print runs and interest have been reduced dramatically.

And let's not forget (especially those young than 30), 25 years ago, the mainstream internet barely existed.

[REGGIE206]

Originally Posted by wilsonjust

3. Pre-1980 Graded vintage (Mantle/Clemente/etc) has continued to go higher and higher and is insane price wise.

In my opinion, this is the only one I can see happening..

[BOboy]

The old stuff is still alive because it was the first, thrown away, generally not collected and relative low productions, it doesn't matter that the players from that time mean nothing to us. The dynamic with the modern stuff gets interesting, say from the 60's on, the generations that grew up with these cards and players are still alive, for the most part, and subsequently the nostalgia aspect keeps the modern cards alive. Where it gets interesting is when these generations that grew up with the modern cards pass away will there still be investment interest in the modern cards? My guess is we will see big drops on the modern cards including high end cards as the players on the cards mean very little to future generations.

[SaveMeTheGum]

You have to put this in perspective. If you asked the same question 25 years ago, what would you have thought then?

- The internet was still fairly new and there was little commerce for regular people on it
- Refractors were brand new, and there were no "First Bowman", "RC logo", Relic cards, numbered inserts, color variations, and autographed cards were gimmicky
- 1993 was pre-strike, pre-PED insanity, pre-money ball. The HR record was still 61.
- The most important stats in 1993 were Batting Avg, HR, RBI, Wins, ERA and K's.

The baseball world, same as the rest of the world, will be completely different in 2044.

[beauspencer]

1. Could everybody still be chasing the 1st Chrome auto of the hyped prospects? BASE autos opening at $1000 for the hyped guys?

2. Flagship rookies and parallels have taken over and is the most sought after cards?

3. Pre-1980 Graded vintage (Mantle/Clemente/etc) has continued to go higher and higher and is insane price wise.

4. Cardboard is dead and everything is electronic and on somebody's phone?

1) Something new and flashy will come along...and probably in the next 5-10 years.

2) I could see this happening

3) Absolutely

4) I think quite the opposite will take place. Everything (almost everything) makes a comeback. Right now cards seem to be a hot ticket item again after several down years. I see this trend continuing as a previous poster mentioned kids from the baseball card boom are back with disposable income. As we (the baseball card boom kids) get older and stop collecting, there will be another low in the hobby. Companies will likely produce less and less product, and at some point in the future (maybe beyond 25 years), cardboard makes a comeback because the electronics boom gets boring and kids move onto something new...stuff you can hold in your hands!

[rngrdanny22]

I could see #1 happening in 25 years due primarily to inflation. $1000 then won't be the same as $1000 now.

[Chrisyork33]

I think the majority of collectors today are 35-45, kids of the junk wax era, myself included. When we are 60-70, 25 years from now will we still be collecting? I would guess many of us will not.

Will there be a legion of collectors to replace us? It doesn't appear so. If the kids of today are collecting 25 years from now it's probably going to be Pokemon or YuGiOh. So given this, the hobby will look vastly different.

I do believe there will be 20 cards or so that will stand the test of time and will be treated as art pieces in the future. (Wagner, Ruth, Mantle, Jordan, Brady, etc). The other cards will eventually be thrown out by the kids who have been asked to settle Dad's estate or to help with Dad's transition to the nursing home. The hobby will come full circle from all of the cards from the 50's and 60's that were thrown out by these kids great-grandparents.

[notoriousrmb]

As long as we still have children being born with OCD and other "collector" tendencies, cards will still be in demand.

Pokemon and other cartoon/fantasy based cards will have their cycles and die out well before baseball and other sports will. Does anyone these days collects cards of shows their parents watched? Some, but not many.

Sports will continue to exist, so the cards will continue to be printed and in demand by people who want a piece of the action.

[mr10pin]

Just think, 25 years from now today's 17-20 year olds that manage 20 year MLB careers will just be becoming eligible for the HOF.

[marterburn]

I'm going to take this in a different direction. Think the 'White Christmas' episode of Black Mirror.

No more cardboard per se, for the most desired cards.

Processors will embedded in a plastic card. A portion of the pictured players' conciousness will be uploaded into certain cards, and project via touch screen to interact with the user to organically talk baseball. These special cards will be rare, of course.

And what's to keep the player's conciousness from misbehaving? Well, watch the episode.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[1989FF]

Many have already stated what I feel. But I like to ramble.....

When us junk era collectors die, the market shrinks. In a big way. We hold a lot of cards. There's no new wave of collectors to pick up our surplus. Just like I didn't buy/complete my Dads stamp collection, avon/beer bottles etc. Our kids don't collect sport cards. The few I know that do like sports, like football and basketball. I can see soccer cards making a comeback in the future based on demographics in the US. The most popular will be coveted (Mantle, Trout Ruth etc) and the (Yaz, Schmidt, Henderson etc.) get forgotten about.

Why did us junk era kids collect? Many reasons sure. But one thing was limitations. As a kid I could A. Pull weeds (my parents favorite) B. Play with bugs C. Tonka/Gi Joe in the dirt (loved it) D. Count my card collection value and stare at what I've amassed with hopes for a huge payday. ( I remember adding up all my cards at 13 and it was over $100. I was so proud of myself and had high hopes.)

Kids now days have social media and video games easily accessible. People now days get instant gratification. They take a pic, post it and get 25 likes to make them feel good. We're seeing more short term flippers aided by the internet. We're all dealers now. So whose left holding the bag (cards) when the core collectors die off? Are the millennials going to go after cards? Some will but it will be less than "us" and they wont collect a 700 card set. Who want's/needs 700 cards in a box on a shelf. It used to be a trophy to assemble a set. They will have smaller collections. It's like fine dining Waterford Crystal. Still coveted by some but far less people and no one is displaying 20 pieces anymore.

Looking back 25 years is one way to see the future 25 years. Things change. Any boy did they. No more pallets of wax boxes for sale at the wholesale club (Costco, wish I had taken pics). We went from cheap cards, mass produced to expensive cards, less production. In the future I think we will need to trim the fat some more. In 25 years I'll be almost 70. Will I collect? Heh. With my eyes on the current course, only if they make the stats in braille.

There will always be collectors. My whole family collects something on some level. Some more than others and for different reasons. The market will have to shift to less production and increased quality.

[rainmaker]

the only one i think is a sure thing is #3. and even at that you have to think the top 10 or so names in the hobby. and at that only the most sought after cards of said players.

cobb, ruth, robinson, jackson, johnson, 50s mantles yes, 60s mantles no. mj #57 and bulls autos yes, mass produced 90s mj no. the top handful of brady cards yes, michigan rc no way, etc...

[DaRitz]

Originally Posted by wilsonjust

The year is 2044. Which of the below do you think has occurred in the past 25 years and is the current state or something completely different

1. Could everybody still be chasing the 1st Chrome auto of the hyped prospects? BASE autos opening at $1000 for the hyped guys?

2. Flagship rookies and parallels have taken over and is the most sought after cards?

3. Pre-1980 Graded vintage (Mantle/Clemente/etc) has continued to go higher and higher and is insane price wise.

4. Cardboard is dead and everything is electronic and on somebody's phone?

We'll say the Stock Market hasn't crashed and the economy is stable throughout those 25 years.

1) God-willing, Topps won't still have the exclusive deal in 25 years. So, hopefully not (on chasing the Chrome).

2) I think these will still be the most sought after, but the value might not be there. Others have mentioned collecting in the 90's. I still love my 1990 Topps Frank Thomas RC as much as my 1989 Upper Deck Griffey card.

3) This will keep going up. I think the older cards act more like "rare artwork." The 1952 Mantle is like a fine Picasso for many people, and always will be.

4) I don't think it will be dead, depending on how you define "dead." I have a theory that regarding Hall of Famers with similar appreciation, the sum of all of their cards are about equal. So my theory is roughly that the sum of the value of all known Stan Musial cards is roughly equal to the sum of the values of all known Albert Pujols cards. Part 2 of the theory is that rookie cards make up about half of the overall value of all of their cards.
(I'm not sure if this holds at the extremes... the sum of value of all Mantle cards is likely higher than the sum of value of all Jeter cards... but it's probably closer than I think.) So if not many people are interested, there are fewer but more valuable cards. Prices go up, more people get interested, production goes up, prices go down... I'm interested in what the market shows long-term for 2018. We might be closer to 1990 production than we think. Soto and Acuna could be HOF'ers selling at the price of 1990 Topps Frank Thomas cards.

And to answer the "digital" question specifically, we're not at peak-digital yet, but we'll get there (in some sense). When you scan the brain of kids playing with electronics, it looks the same as a brain on cocaine. Lot of implications of that, but one long-term thing is that kids won't be allowed to be on electronics as they are today, any more than they're allowed to use cocaine. Unfortunately, we're still on the upswing of the electronics era, but it will turn at some point.

[SaveMeTheGum]

It all depends what happens when Panini gets exclusive mlb license...

[TheFreeShipper]

I just want plain white borders.

[DaRitz]

Originally Posted by 1989FF

There will always be collectors. ... The market will have to shift to less production and increased quality.

I'm almost an exclusively Topps guy, because of the licensing. But I love Panini Elite Extra Edition because (almost) every card is serial numbered. (Base is serial numbered... I noticed some inserts not SN'ed this year.)

When production dips, I think we'll see more and more serial-numbered cards.

One thing I wish the OP asked is... How many color variations will be in base Bowman/Topps/Chrome sets? How many can we get? We're approaching the point of having one SN'ed color variation in every pack. But at some point it gets ridiculous. "Sweet, only 100 of these were made, and I have one!" loses some appeal when there are 100 color variations (10,000 cards) numbered to 100.

But I think that's the way we're headed... every card SN'ed... just a matter of how many variations we'll see.