Anyone worried about increasing print runs?

[detroitbball]

I found a website yesterday called "baseballcardpedia.com", and in it was a very easy way to look up pack odds for Topps baseball card products. What I noticed is that things like Chrome and Series 1/2 have seen their pack odds almost double over the last 5 years, which means total print runs of base cards have almost doubled. Is anyone concerned about the increase in supply and what the long term ramifications will be? Are we headed for another junk-wax period with a crash in prices? Or is production simply matching new, permanent demand for product? Curious on folks' thoughts. I hang out in the basketball world more where Panini won't even tell you the pack odds, so it was refreshing that Topps at least makes that information known.

[Gustomania]

Yep, but if the 80s taught us anything there will always be value in certain players and cards.
So, while I think vintage is better based on rarity, it’s a great time for BBall cards in general.

But this has always bothered me and if I can get a card raw easily in mint shape then it’s likely not my best choice as their is not enough scarcity for me to care.

For example, I would want to buy a raw Koufax rookie that someone says is NM, I would only buy that card PSA graded and that’s not fool proof

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by detroitbball

What I noticed is that things like Chrome and Series 1/2 have seen their pack odds almost double over the last 5 years, which means total print runs of base cards have almost doubled.

Does it ?

[ThoseBackPages]

i have not been able to find any Chrome at SRP

[detroitbball]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

Does it ?

Well that was my conclusion. I used the pack odds of a /299 parallel in chrome as a "benchmark" so to speak. The pack size didn't appear to change (4 cards per pack with hobby and retail and 12 with jumbo). But the odds doubled, so with the same number of cards per pack, the number of packs has to double and thus the total print run. Someone correct me if I am wrong.

[HarryLime]

I hate to break it to you but print runs passed the doubling part a few years ago. But if we're looking at what's occurred in the past 5 years, more importantly, it's the number of releases that there are and how easily they get consumed into the market these days.

Breaking, On Demand, and Topps Now have completely changed the landscape of the hobby from 2015.

Arthur

[detroitbball]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

I hate to break it to you but print runs passed the doubling part a few years ago. But if we're looking at what's occurred in the past 5 years, more importantly, it's the number of releases that there are and how easily they get consumed into the market these days.

Breaking, On Demand, and Topps Now have completely changed the landscape of the hobby from 2015.

Arthur

That's a really good point. So not only have print runs of any particular release increased, but the total number of releases has as well. So at the end of the day, if you take Luis Robert for example, the total number of Luis Robert rookies available across all releases is probably quite a bit more than say a Mookie Betts from a few years ago. But for now, demand seems to be soaking it up.

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by detroitbball

Well that was my assumption. I used the pack odds of a /299 parallel in chrome as a "benchmark" so to speak. The pack size didn't appear to change (4 cards per pack with hobby and retail and 12 with jumbo). But the odds doubled, so with the same number of cards per pack, the number of packs has to double and thus the total print run. Someone correct me if I am wrong.

The one calculation you are missing is the checklist size. If there are 200 players in the release that would be 200 * 299 * pack odds for estimates pack run.

It likely won't change your calculations much and might even point to higher than double print run but just wanted to point that out.

[SupermanBrandon]

Quality vs Quantity. Buy/Hold/Sell Quality...and you will be just fine.

[detroitbball]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

The one calculation you are missing is the checklist size. If there are 200 players in the release that would be 200 * 299 * pack odds for estimates pack run.

It likely won't change your calculations much and might even point to higher than double print run but just wanted to point that out.

Very good point. I checked and it looks the checklist size for 2015 and 2020 is essentially the same (205 vs 200). I'm not trying to freak anyone out here or anything, but this jump in production concerns me, and as collectors it's probably prudent to "sleep with one eye open" because this movie played out once before and there is at least a possibility of a repeat showing.

[kabrune2]

Originally Posted by detroitbball

Well that was my conclusion. I used the pack odds of a /299 parallel in chrome as a "benchmark" so to speak. The pack size didn't appear to change (4 cards per pack with hobby and retail and 12 with jumbo). But the odds doubled, so with the same number of cards per pack, the number of packs has to double and thus the total print run. Someone correct me if I am wrong.

What you’re also missing is there are some flagship products without some parallels like the /299 for some retail products, and instead have mega, Xfractor, pink, etc, thus increasing the base even further. I dare say if you compared print runs in 2015 to 2020 the print runs have probably tripled or more, and if Topps follows their history of not giving AF about long term value and being greedy sob’s and seeing almost every product selling out they’ll up production by 20% or more on the boutique high end stuff (Sapphire, Flashbacks, Baller, etc) and they’ll increase flagship products by another 20-50% for 2021

Long story short, I won’t be buying any wax in 2021

[LVDan]

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[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by detroitbball

Very good point. I checked and it looks the checklist size for 2015 and 2020 is essentially the same (205 vs 200). I'm not trying to freak anyone out here or anything, but this jump in production concerns me, and as collectors it's probably prudent to "sleep with one eye open" because this movie played out once before and there is at least a possibility of a repeat showing.

Most people here have been well aware of the print run increases. If it continues to double we could have a problem but the hobby itself has likely doubled the last 5 years as well. Like others on here have said very few base cards hold any value as it is. Enough people are going to want the star rookies (especially in psa 10 grade) that it should be able to retain value but aside from the super star tier rookies, base cards definitely have a bleak outlook.

[Soxfan26]

Originally Posted by detroitbball

Well that was my conclusion. I used the pack odds of a /299 parallel in chrome as a "benchmark" so to speak. The pack size didn't appear to change (4 cards per pack with hobby and retail and 12 with jumbo). But the odds doubled, so with the same number of cards per pack, the number of packs has to double and thus the total print run. Someone correct me if I am wrong.

Does it take account additional insert sub-set cards, larger sets (200 to 300), or for more variations?

[ThoseBackPages]

i just hope to be able to find some in 2021

[esoxwaters]

At this point, print runs are not anywhere near approaching the levels of the junk wax era, even when you take into consideration all the different products being released. The real question is whether there will still be as much interest in these cards in 5, 10, or 20 years as there is today. If demand continues to increase, today’s print runs will look minuscule. My guess is that will be true for some products while others get left by the wayside.

[Lonewolf]

If everything is still getting snatched up the minute it's stocked in 2021, print runs won't matter until later when tons of wax has been broken and TPG submissions come back, then everyone realizes just how common (aka: not scarce, a big factor in value) their hyped cards are...

Even with increased production, demand could still outstrip supply for certain sets/players/variations. We shall see...

[waluwhute]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

i just hope to be able to find some in 2021

This is what's crazy. As scary as it seems they may not be printing enough. We'll see if the tik tok sneakerhead generation sticks around. Someone mentioned earlier and it makes the most sense that buying quality is more important than ever rather than quantity.

[HarryLime]

As others have pointed out, it's much too simplistic to look at one set's specific parallel and just calculate odds.

How many parallels have been added to the set? If there were only 5 color parallels in 2015 but now there are 12 then Topps can continue to keep the hits at the same rate while increasing production.

According to PSA's baseball pop report, there were 654 sets in 2015 with 19,200+ unique card spec numbers. In 2019, there were 1,016 sets with 45,000+ unique card spec numbers.

But the hobby has grown as well. There have been 102,000 baseball cards graded from 2015 while there's already been 444,000 baseball cards graded from 2019, even though 2015 has had an extra four years to get submissions.

So supply has dramatically increased but so has demand. The good news is that today's hobby works in a tiered serial numbered system so you know how rare the item you're buying is. Heck, we even have wicked smaht folks here that can calculate total production and estimate print runs on base when they decide to put the work into it. So it's not like the junk wax era where everyone was flying blind through the Himalayas in one prop Cessnas.

Arthur

[dfenno]

Originally Posted by esoxwaters

At this point, print runs are not anywhere near approaching the levels of the junk wax era, even when you take into consideration all the different products being released. The real question is whether there will still be as much interest in these cards in 5, 10, or 20 years as there is today. If demand continues to increase, today’s print runs will look minuscule. My guess is that will be true for some products while others get left by the wayside.

Is there a way to quantify print runs now vs to the junk era? I was just wondering how Topps Flagship base runs compare to back then.

[hairysasquatch]

Originally Posted by LVDan

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Alfred!!

[esoxwaters]

Originally Posted by dfenno

Is there a way to quantify print runs now vs to the junk era? I was just wondering how Topps Flagship base runs compare to back then.

Hard to estimate the actual print runs of flagship base cards back then but it was likely in the 7 to 8 figure range vs low 6 figures now.

[cardinalsooner]

People are already only wanting the top 10% of cards printed....the vast majority of cards being printed are undesireable and have little to no monitary value. The card companies are literally printing money for themselves....the print runs will increase to a level where the odds will be so high to get that top 10% of cards that it won't make sense to even buy unopened product and the resellers will fade away and things will come back down to earth. There's going to be a demand for those top cards, but the easy money will be gone and the new guys with it.

[pewe]

More reason to only keep low numbered cards from a top product... especially those parallels with long track record


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[alohasports]

Vintage will always be king in the hobby! I would rather have a 1955 topps PSA Koufax vs a acuna jr topps PSA rookie card! Or I’d rather have a 1969 topps PSA Johnny bench card vs a 2019 topps PSA mike trout card!!!