2020 F1 Topps Chrome Original & Sapphire #1 Lewis Hamilton Print run for ALL PARALLEL

[Litwing]

I have prepared the printrun quantities of all parallels for the 2020 Formula 1 Topps Chrome original and Sapphire Lewis Hamilton Card #1. The printrun of non-numbered cards are estimated by odd. I also added the percentage for each parallel among the overall estimated quantity for better concept of distribution.

Please note that the chrome base (non-refractor) is not included, while the sapphire blue is included as it is one of the sapphire (cracked ice) refractors among others.

All data are for reference only. Since topps showed all the odds for each parallel, the estimated no. would not be 100% accurate but should be pretty close to the actual print runs.

[nickdrizzle]

My hero

[Bruin7]

My friend great work! Thank you for your community contribution.

[StikiLouda]

This is great!

[tier1dc]

Well done.

[Mikegolf]

Is it confirmed that there is only 1 70th Superfractor original image? I've see other base cards from the set having at least 2 copies of the 70th Super so far.

[Litwing]

Originally Posted by Mikegolf

Is it confirmed that there is only 1 70th Superfractor original image? I've see other base cards from the set having at least 2 copies of the 70th Super so far.

1/1 superfractor odd for 200 bases: 1:3,419
70th superfractor odd for 200 bases: 1:3,384

The difference between the above 2 ratio is around 1% (total copies of 70th super is 1% more than 1/1 super in total, i.e. 200 1/1 super vs 202 70th super)

Technically by odd, there should be 202 copies existed for 70th superfractors for the 200 no. base cards, so there should be 198 bases with only 1 70th super and 2 bases with 2 70th super. As 99% of them only have 1 70th super, I assume there is only 1 70th super for #1 card.

Sure this is wholly by odds provided by Topps, no one knows if they would print more of 70th super for more base cards but so far only 2 bases appeared to have 2 70th super, it is still within their odd ratio. I also think even Topps may print more 70th super, that would not deviate from the odd provided by Topps largely.

[Litwing]

Originally Posted by nickdrizzle

My hero

Originally Posted by Bruin7

My friend great work! Thank you for your community contribution.

Originally Posted by StikiLouda

This is great!

Originally Posted by tier1dc

Well done.

Thanks all of your kind words!! Appreciated!!

[JediScavenger]

Well done!

[Archangel1775]

Thank you for doing this.

[saraceno21]

Are you able to back into how many base cards are made based on these numbers? I think the 2020 chrome product was only available in 18 count boxes.

[bhundley]

Bumping this to see if there’s an estimated PR for the base cards.

[gymratcards]

Bumping this as I just posted an estimated print run analysis for this set on my blog. It includes the estimated print run for base cards and the base inserts.

Note that it comes primarily from hobby box break data and deviates a slight bit from the pack odds based analysis that started this thread. I assume this may be a result of manufacturers publishing pack odds that slightly underestimate the total print run, as legally it may be safer to claim something falls at a rate slightly less frequent than it actually does. It could also be an artifact of small sample sizes. Either way, both approaches seem close.

Hope this is helpful!

Sports Card Analytics- 2020 Topps Chrome Formula 1 Print Run Analysis

[Litwing]

Originally Posted by gymratcards

Bumping this as I just posted an estimated print run analysis for this set on my blog. It includes the estimated print run for base cards and the base inserts.

Note that it comes primarily from hobby box break data and deviates a slight bit from the pack odds based analysis that started this thread. I assume this may be a result of manufacturers publishing pack odds that slightly underestimate the total print run, as legally it may be safer to claim something falls at a rate slightly less frequent than it actually does. It could also be an artifact of small sample sizes. Either way, both approaches seem close.

Hope this is helpful!

Sports Card Analytics- 2020 Topps Chrome Formula 1 Print Run Analysis

Thanks for your analysis as well. I think topps would not set a rate slightly less than it actually does due to legal reason. As what I observed so far there is not a single superfractor surfaced for any track tags, even topps said it should have by odd lol.

My analysis is similar to you that one case should have 70% chance to get one #1 refractor in any colors, the weighted average return for that one refractor is around $3,000 (assume that is a psa 8 card). While this is just one card, there are alot of worthy cards in a case like autographs, Max cards, GR/Norris true RC cards etc.

[tpgcards]

Do you have a 2020 F1 Chrome vs 2020 F1 Chrome Sapphire breakdown?