Veteran hitting down, young players up

[drakehendrix34]

Has anyone else noticed the typical veteran studs are all down fairly significantly this year? Mookie, Rendon, Arenado, Freeman, Abreu, Yelich, Story, DJ, Lindor, Machado and others are typically studs pushing OPS of 1.000, but none of them are even close.

Meanwhile, we've seen Vladdy, Tatis, Ohtani and Acuna in the top 5 of OPS, with Devers, Mullins, Reynolds and Yordan rounding out the top 20.

Any thoughts why that might be? Only thing I can think of is veterans not recovering well from a strange season.

[ThoseBackPages]

changing of the guard

[kabrune2]

A few of the old guard changed teams (Arenado, Lindor, Rendon) and a few are coming off some injuries (Story, Yelich), some are just getting older (LeMahieu, Abreu), and some are having solid seasons just not great seasons and are beginning to heat up (Freeman, Machado).

It happens every year, And we’re seeing a few players pulling themselves out of the hole already, Lindor, Story and Yelich for instance. It’s a long season but I expect 5 of the players to be around .900 OPS by year’s end

[premium1981]

Add Soto to your list of old guys producing at a lesser level this year.

[LCM1223]

Pitchers have had years to figure out vets hitting patterns

Add in “aging” bodies/mindsets

[drakehendrix34]

Originally Posted by kabrune2

A few of the old guard changed teams (Arenado, Lindor, Rendon) and a few are coming off some injuries (Story, Yelich), some are just getting older (LeMahieu, Abreu), and some are having solid seasons just not great seasons and are beginning to heat up (Freeman, Machado).

It happens every year, And we’re seeing a few players pulling themselves out of the hole already, Lindor, Story and Yelich for instance. It’s a long season but I expect 5 of the players to be around .900 OPS by year’s end

I don't think this dramatic of a shift happens every year. I mean that's both 2020 and 2018 MVPs. Arguably the best 1B, 2B, two 3B, two SS and RF coming into the season. I agree a few guys will break out, but this season clearly seems to favor young guys.

Originally Posted by premium1981

Add Soto to your list of old guys producing at a lesser level this year.

Well he's only 22 so can't call him old haha

[drakehendrix34]

Originally Posted by LCM1223

Pitchers have had years to figure out vets hitting patterns

Add in “aging” bodies/mindsets

Maybe, but why would that just happen now? These guys have been elite hitters for years.

[JRX]

Whole lot of some combination of nagging injuries, small sample size, and people putting too much stock into last year's numbers. Abreu is on pace for over 100 RBI, Arenado no longer gets to play in Coors, Freeman isn't a .340 hitter, Machado is only slightly down from his career triple slash, etc etc

[SupermanBrandon]

It's honestly better if you just completely forget the 2020 season even happened. Way too small of a sample size.

[redsraysbball21]

We all knew Freeman wouldn't replicate his 60 game stretch again this year. He is batting .250 now after being below .200 a month or so ago. I will say that he's had some bad luck in the beginning of the year... was hitting missiles right at people. It wouldn't surprise me to see him hitting more like .280 by the end of the year.

I think for him particularly, a few things have hurt him that's helped contribute to lower numbers:
1) Not having a DH makes a huge impact at the top of the order. Having an extra big bat over a pitcher's bat makes a big difference in the quality of at bats you have. Less time having runners on when you bat, shorter innings, etc. means you see higher quality pitches, less relievers, etc
2) He doesn't have much protection with Ozuna and D'Arnaud out of the lineup. The Braves lineup past Acuna, Albies, Riley is pretty weak. I'm sure he's getting a somewhat similar number of walks and is striking out more, so he's probably pressing. I think of all the guys mentioned, he is the one I'd be least concerned about. But last year's 60 game stretch is not going to be the new norm for him...


The one thing that is concerning is lack of doubles. Most of those came from going the other way since they shift him so dramatically. He's got 1/3 the doubles he had last year in 12 more games this year... so that's something that could be concerning. Will be interesting to see how the second half goes for him.

[Silent George]

just to cherry pick a few:

Abreau is having the exact sort of season you'd expect him to have at his age and looking how he performed in 2018 and 2019. It's 2020 that's the anomaly.

Arenado is being Arenado. 118 career wRC+ 120 projected 122 actual. That's the Coors to Busch transition. His fielding has been much worse for some reason. Maybe the new home ballpark.

Betts is a career 135, this year he's a 131.

Haven't bothered looking at the rest, but: offense is down all around baseball, and Injuries have been way up. Relatively I think a lot of this is a mirage.

[Silent George]

Originally Posted by redsraysbball21

We all knew Freeman wouldn't replicate his 60 game stretch again this year. He is batting .250 now after being below .200 a month or so ago. I will say that he's had some bad luck in the beginning of the year... was hitting missiles right at people. It wouldn't surprise me to see him hitting more like .280 by the end of the year.

I think for him particularly, a few things have hurt him that's helped contribute to lower numbers:
1) Not having a DH makes a huge impact at the top of the order. Having an extra big bat over a pitcher's bat makes a big difference in the quality of at bats you have. Less time having runners on when you bat, shorter innings, etc. means you see higher quality pitches, less relievers, etc
2) He doesn't have much protection with Ozuna and D'Arnaud out of the lineup. The Braves lineup past Acuna, Albies, Riley is pretty weak. I'm sure he's getting a somewhat similar number of walks and is striking out more, so he's probably pressing. I think of all the guys mentioned, he is the one I'd be least concerned about. But last year's 60 game stretch is not going to be the new norm for him...


The one thing that is concerning is lack of doubles. Most of those came from going the other way since they shift him so dramatically. He's got 1/3 the doubles he had last year in 12 more games this year... so that's something that could be concerning. Will be interesting to see how the second half goes for him.

Freeman's xwOBA is .409, which is very good and 59 points above his wOBA, so he's been unlucky and is just fine - just not at his career year otherworldly 2020 levels

[eye4talent]

For one, there is still a lot of season left to be played. But I’d say there are counters to the premise these veterans are all struggling or falling off:

Arenado is producing exactly as Should be expected, having left Colorado.

Look at Machado’s year-by-year numbers. This season isn’t really unusual. And considering that he used to play in a hitter’s haven in Baltimore, his numbers seem decent.

Freeman is off a little, but it’s not unusual for his seasons to be a bit of a statistical roller coaster.

Mookie’s numbers look a lot like his ‘17 numbers. But he’s another case of a player moving to a tougher hitter’s park. Maybe in the two-month ‘20 season it didn’t affect his numbers too much, but it will impact long-term.

Lindor switched teams and signed a huge contract. It’s quite common for players to struggle initially with the newfound pressure/expectation.

I never fully bought into LeMahieu. And frankly, his ‘19 and ‘20 seasons seemed abnormal. He hit for average in Colorado, but then he added power when he left?

Abreu isn’t that far off from his career marks. Last year, we maybe saw the best two months of his career.

Yelich has struggled with injuries. That can throw off your game.

Rendon is the one mystery. But you know, sometimes good hitters have funks.

Also, the young players are especially productive, so it makes the veterans’ numbers look worse than they are. It would sorta be like a room full of 6-footers being the tallest guys in the room, and then some dudes standing 6’4” walk in. The 6-footers didn’t shrink, but they don’t look as tall anymore.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[JRX]

Rendon seems to have taken the mantle of massive LA fa bust from Pujols. With Mookie as someone else pointed out he's now batting after the pitcher so lot less opp for rbis. He's also had a ton of minor injuries and illness and hasn't really gotten into a groove yet.

[base set]

Bat speed

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by drakehendrix34

Has anyone else noticed the typical veteran studs are all down fairly significantly this year? Mookie, Rendon, Arenado, Freeman, Abreu, Yelich, Story, DJ, Lindor, Machado and others are typically studs pushing OPS of 1.000, but none of them are even close.

Meanwhile, we've seen Vladdy, Tatis, Ohtani and Acuna in the top 5 of OPS, with Devers, Mullins, Reynolds and Yordan rounding out the top 20.

Any thoughts why that might be? Only thing I can think of is veterans not recovering well from a strange season.

Half the guys you listed are over 30. One other(Machado) has been having an incredible June. Mookie has been hurt all year but isn't that far off his career offensive numbers. And the remaining(Story, Lindor) were never great hitters in the first place and get alot of their value from defense.

Modern hitters peak, on average, anywhere from 22-26 and then start to decline. Here's a good guide on aging curves: https://tht.fangraphs.com/aging-curv...mn-strikeouts/

[drakehendrix34]

Agree with plenty that's been said, but every counterpoint has kind of supported that these guys are still down. Plenty of time to turn it around, but we are about half way through the season. Just surprises me that perennial all-stars are the ones struggling.

OPS
Freeman - lowest since 2012
Mookie - lowest since 2017
Rendon - lowest ever
Machado - maybe he just kinda stinks, but higher than 2019!
Lindor - lowest ever
DJ - lowest since 2014
Story - lowest since 2017
Arenado - if we don't count 2020(like everyone above says) 2013
Abreu - lowest ever
Yelich - lowest since 2017(not counting 2020)

[Stech36]

You’re forgetting guys like Nelson Cruz, Kris Bryant, Bryce Harper, Xander Bogaerts, Nick Castellanos, and Jose Ramirez.

If you cherry pick only the players who are playing bad, you’re making it look like a trend when there’s not one.

[drakehendrix34]

Originally Posted by Stech36

You’re forgetting guys like Nelson Cruz, Kris Bryant, Bryce Harper, Xander Bogaerts, Nick Castellanos, and Jose Ramirez.

If you cherry pick only the players who are playing bad, you’re making it look like a trend when there’s not one.

Outside of Machado, I specifically picked guys that would've been argued the best at their position going into 2021. Cruz would work for DH tho.

[notoriousrmb]

Instead of looking at just the top guys being down, anyone evaluate some mid-tier players? Maybe all levels of hitting are down.

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Add Soto to your list of old guys producing at a lesser level this year.

Dude .... you got me

[Boredlawyer]

For every Tatis and Vlad, there's a young Kelenic, Bohm, Soto, Torres, Lux, Carlson that's underachieved. Chisholm is currently on that backslide: Hitting .212 with a .353 slugging in June.

[Silent George]

Rendon is having a lost year due to injuries and the ridiculous baseball tradition of playing through pain even when it crushes your productivity.

But the guy is a monster talent and I suspect he'll be at least a 4WAR player again next year.

[Silent George]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

For every Tatis and Vlad, there's a young Kelenic, Bohm, Soto, Torres, Lux, Carlson that's underachieved. Chisholm is currently on that backslide: Hitting .212 with a .353 slugging in June.

as a Cardinals fan with rose colored glasses, I'll say Carlson isn't underperforming. He's 22, and hitting 10% above the league average.

His biggest issue is that he's a corner outfielder that's been stuck in CF since Bader has been hurt. He's doing admirably, but he ain't no CF, and his defensive numbers have suffered. He's an above average RF/LF but his biggest issue is routes, and that's not great for a CF where he's clearly below average. And that has to hurt his offense too.

Yeah, just looked. As a CF his wRC+ is 103. As a RF it's 126.

[SupermanBrandon]

We also have to remember that we are HYPER focused on a select few, new young studs right now. Not only in the media but also on this board.