Looking to (assumed) 2022 Prizm World Cup

[reddragonthe]

I think the success of soccer and Prizm and Topps dumping so many rookies into so many club-based products this year makes it UNLIKELY that we'll see the combination of "star+rookie" in the 2022 World Cup Prizm release.

For instance... If this were 2018 Prizm World Cup, we'd not be looking at a "rookie" Mbappe... we'd be looking at a 2nd year Mbappe and Topps would have found a way to include him in a 16-17 Chrome Champions League product.

It's still a modern favorite (for now) so even guys with a lot of cardboard will still carry some value... but I think to get to the prices I'm expecting, we'll need a star (or 3) that we can point to this being a "rookie" for them. I don't think "first Prizm World Cup" is going to be enough. Because for some they are also getting other Prizm.

The product will be (another/the) victim of the segment's "success" over the last 18 months.

[fadster]

I agree, if Topps and Panini are doing their job properly rookie cards in international kits will be few and far between. Any promising young player will get rc'ed to death well before they reach the level to appear at an international tournament. It puts the onus on Panini to make some nice looking parallels, retired content and a strong auto list, but that will only ever get you a high floor, the ceiling is lowering going forward.

[ac1992]

I have to agree, especially with Prizm been seen as the safe investment in the community for a while, it either means everyone goes for this, and with the higher print runs it will just get junk slabbed, and with the box price inevitably going to be higher, I just don't think it will be something I'm interested in.

This product would desperately need Norway to qualify, have Fati in his first tournament, and hope Moukoko really is a generational talent and Germany/Cameroon qualify depending on who he decides to play for, or hope there's a new player that comes through in the next 18 months who is not currently on the radar.

I also think the fact this will be in November to December will have some kind of impact too, it would be the equivalent of one of the NFL/NBA/MLB having the Playoffs or Olympics in the middle of the season, surely it will have some impact on the boxes throughout that whole calendar year.

[yiguiri2002]

It's gonna be tough for RCs. Looking at the top in South America, Brazil might have Ewerton and Gabigol and Argentina Julian Alvarez. Nothing big.

I think more than anything, it's gonna be the debut of young players with their national team jersey that might mean something. As well as teams that haven't made it to the WC during the Panini era (like Paraguay) that might drive the product.

[gomiamigo]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I think more than anything, it's gonna be the debut of young players with their national team jersey that might mean something. As well as teams that haven't made it to the WC during the Panini era (like Paraguay) that might drive the product.

Agreed.

But people will turn out for world cup gold Prizms of Messi, Ronaldo, Mbappe, Haaland, etc alone.

And imagine if a US player is doing really well either heading into WC or during it like McKinnie, Reyna, Pulisic, Weah. Or USMNT do really well and are scoring goals and advancing to the Qtrs. Product will be on fire.

[mfw13]

I just hope that the design is good, and that enough is printed so that wax is available at reasonable prices (i.e. $80-120 a box).

But I'm not getting my hopes up, given that both 2014 & 2018 WC Prizm were under-printed and therefore very expensive.

[KhalDrogo]

If the US qualifies, this has the potential to be the most anticipated wax release of all time. Doesn’t matter that the big names won’t be RCs. First international kit Prizm is what matters. Giddy up!

[k13]

Originally Posted by mfw13

I just hope that the design is good, and that enough is printed so that wax is available at reasonable prices (i.e. $80-120 a box).

But I'm not getting my hopes up, given that both 2014 & 2018 WC Prizm were under-printed and therefore very expensive.

2014 wc prizm had 9000 cases....

[k13]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

If the US qualifies, this has the potential to be the most anticipated wax release of all time. Doesn’t matter that the big names won’t be RCs. First international kit Prizm is what matters. Giddy up!

Why?

Market is luke warm.
Panini will destroy it with a million parallels and formats.

Americans aren't going to eat it up like you think.


Who's 1st kit is that exciting?
Everyone good already has one.

[Mitch]

I like first international appearance cards, but I don't give a monkeys if it's Prizm or any other set to be honest.

They'd do well to make a cap logo, or first international mark or similar to add to them.

But for real value, a proper checklist - Danny Ings for England in Mosaic FFS. Include decent veterans, make parallels nice, but also achievable (I watched Mosaic cases with 3 numbered cards).

And price it so people can rip it, without needing to resort to breaks and the inevitable nothing to show for your outlay.

It should be do-able, but it needs to be well executed.

[Gin&Juice]

New retired player content will be key. The draw of 2014 at the time was the auto checklist. 2018 then added Maradona, Batistuta, Rivaldo, Henry, Klose, Rummenigge, Puyol, and Vieira. While some of those guys had autos in Flawless/Emminence/Immaculate/Select, they were still pretty limited at the time.

Would be great to see some new names in 2022. Even guys like Ronaldinho who have some autos already would help this product immensely.

[reddragonthe]

I can't tell who is trolling and who is not on these boards any more. The internet is awesome like that.

These products had MASSIVE print runs (especially relative to the market at the time). 4 years later when Mbappe PSA 10s started selling for gobs of money, sure, it seemed a little less available. Go figure.

They will print so much of this.

It may not matter if the market stays like this unless/until people are willing to come down... but people are still paying $350 for Chrome champions, so I don't see any "reasonable" pricing as likely REGARDLESS of print runs. Prizm EPL is still priced like it's some great product.

As for first country - do we have good examples where first country was a big price-premium thing (beyond just "I'd like to have Reyna's first card in a US jersey.")? Especially any where the first country was not proximate to a legit comparable rookie card?

[reddragonthe]

I think what they COULD do is figure out how to get some really nice insert chases. Without overdoing it or complete retreads from other products. I can only be blasted with color so often.

I also like the idea of figuring out how to bring in vet content. Fun for collecting - but barring some really noteworthy chase autos, it may not help with the value/price discussion.

[Ianhatcher]

Probably the only Panini product I will pickup next year unless they do Eminence which would be awesome. I don't see a whole lot of value in it though especially for rookies unless someone bursts onto the scene in 21/22 season though but people will push the "1st" narrative as much as possible to add value. Not really something I care about but I do agree if USA is in it that will certainly add some buzz.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by reddragonthe

I can't tell who is trolling and who is not on these boards any more. The internet is awesome like that.

These products had MASSIVE print runs (especially relative to the market at the time). 4 years later when Mbappe PSA 10s started selling for gobs of money, sure, it seemed a little less available. Go figure.

They will print so much of this.

It may not matter if the market stays like this unless/until people are willing to come down... but people are still paying $350 for Chrome champions, so I don't see any "reasonable" pricing as likely REGARDLESS of print runs. Prizm EPL is still priced like it's some great product.

As for first country - do we have good examples where first country was a big price-premium thing (beyond just "I'd like to have Reyna's first card in a US jersey.")? Especially any where the first country was not proximate to a legit comparable rookie card?

Not exactly what you're looking for, but Pulisic's 2016 Select Mezzanine (USA kit) outsells the Field Level (Dortmund kit) even though Mezzanine is much easier to hit, and Field Level is hugely important in basketball and football. Maybe it won't matter so much for the international guys, but the USA Prizms will be in high demand.

[YayNJ]

It's just a shame that base Prizm is one of the ugliest, not not THE ugliest mainstream trading card in existence.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by reddragonthe

I can't tell who is trolling and who is not on these boards any more. The internet is awesome like that.

These products had MASSIVE print runs (especially relative to the market at the time). 4 years later when Mbappe PSA 10s started selling for gobs of money, sure, it seemed a little less available. Go figure.

They will print so much of this.

It may not matter if the market stays like this unless/until people are willing to come down... but people are still paying $350 for Chrome champions, so I don't see any "reasonable" pricing as likely REGARDLESS of print runs. Prizm EPL is still priced like it's some great product.

As for first country - do we have good examples where first country was a big price-premium thing (beyond just "I'd like to have Reyna's first card in a US jersey.")? Especially any where the first country was not proximate to a legit comparable rookie card?

Given that qualifiers are still going, I don't know. But I think that if you see teams that haven't made it since 2010 (or earlier), they will be in demand.

Personally, if we somehow make it, I'm going after Lapadula and Pena. For the US, I assume Sergino, Aaronson, Musah and/or Dike. Others that I can think of are Rodrygo and Valverde.

I don't think there's gonna be a big name but between new countries, first international Chrome cards and retired players autos, I think there will be enough to drive demand for this.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by k13

2014 wc prizm had 9000 cases....

I don't know if that's accurate or not, but from what I remember, wax prices for 2014 were significantly higher than 2010.

I remember planning to build the set through buying boxes, being shocked at the wax prices (which I think were around $150/box), and buying a complete set on EBay instead.

[PJKards]

Originally Posted by reddragonthe

I think the success of soccer and Prizm and Topps dumping so many rookies into so many club-based products this year makes it UNLIKELY that we'll see the combination of "star+rookie" in the 2022 World Cup Prizm release.

For instance... If this were 2018 Prizm World Cup, we'd not be looking at a "rookie" Mbappe... we'd be looking at a 2nd year Mbappe and Topps would have found a way to include him in a 16-17 Chrome Champions League product.

It's still a modern favorite (for now) so even guys with a lot of cardboard will still carry some value... but I think to get to the prices I'm expecting, we'll need a star (or 3) that we can point to this being a "rookie" for them. I don't think "first Prizm World Cup" is going to be enough. Because for some they are also getting other Prizm.

The product will be (another/the) victim of the segment's "success" over the last 18 months.

It's awesome that you brought this up.

I've been piecing together a spreadsheet to track RCs of all young players that pop up on "Top 50 U21", etc. lists. Panini and Topps are close to "catching up", for lack of a better term, with getting out RCs of a majority of players.

2021-22 sets onward, not just WC Prizm, are going to require the companies to move into a new phase of Rookie Cards.

They may have to start digging into Club U# teams. Panini packing a card of anyone that's earned a Cap. Or Topps packing a card of any worthwhile player who's team sniffs just Europa League action.

Right now, going by Goal.com's NXGN 2021 list, top guys for 21-22 would be:

9. Mohamed Ihattaren (PSV)
11. Rayan Cherki (Lyon)
12. Gabriel Veron (Brazil)
16. Tanguy Nianzou (Bayern, Defender)
18. Kaio Jorge (Brazil)
19. Amad Diallo (Man U, has Topps Living UCL card)
and
26. Harvey Elliott (Liverpool)

1-8, 10, 13-15, 17 on that list already have cardboard.

Wrapping the long-winded writing up...

Veron and Jorge for Brazil may be the best chances for good True RC in 2022 WC Prizm.

But we are moving into new RC territory indeed.

[reddragonthe]

Originally Posted by PJKards

It's awesome that you brought this up.

I've been piecing together a spreadsheet to track RCs of all young players that pop up on "Top 50 U21", etc. lists. Panini and Topps are close to "catching up", for lack of a better term, with getting out RCs of a majority of players.

2021-22 sets onward, not just WC Prizm, are going to require the companies to move into a new phase of Rookie Cards.

They may have to start digging into Club U# teams. Panini packing a card of anyone that's earned a Cap. Or Topps packing a card of any worthwhile player who's team sniffs just Europa League action.

Right now, going by Goal.com's NXGN 2021 list, top guys for 21-22 would be:

9. Mohamed Ihattaren (PSV)
11. Rayan Cherki (Lyon)
12. Gabriel Veron (Brazil)
16. Tanguy Nianzou (Bayern, Defender)
18. Kaio Jorge (Brazil)
19. Amad Diallo (Man U, has Topps Living UCL card)
and
26. Harvey Elliott (Liverpool)

1-8, 10, 13-15, 17 on that list already have cardboard.

Wrapping the long-winded writing up...

Veron and Jorge for Brazil may be the best chances for good True RC in 2022 WC Prizm.

But we are moving into new RC territory indeed.

no one will care a ton but Elliott has a card in MA Chrome. I sneaky like it.

This is also good info. I think things will be fun and interesting.

[fadster]

Rayan Cherki has an Topps Now card from 19/20 (might have been the first card with the new "RC" symbol), plus the usual domestic French stuff for 20/21. Ihattaren lacks any hobby releases but has been in Dutch domestic market releases in 19/20, 20/21. All the low hanging fruit has been picked by Panini and Topps over the last couple of seasons.

[Gin&Juice]

Would be surprised if Ihatteren, Cherki, Veron or Jorge are on the WC roster for their respective country. Not sure that would stop Panini from including them, but seems unlikely that they would be in the product.

[YayNJ]

Same goes for Harvey Elliott.

[fadster]

The only one I can see anywhere near the WC squads is Ihattaren. He got a senior call up in September last year and was in the running for a place in the squad until early this year. However things between him and the PSV manager really deteriorated and they had a big bust up with Ihattaren hardly playing afterwards which also cost him his U21 championship spot. He only has a year on his contract, Mark Van Bommel, who has worked with him before at PSV and is a big fan, has just taken over at Wolfsburg and looks a logical move. There is also a chance he changes his mind over representing the Netherlands and switches to Morocco.

[PJKards]

Originally Posted by fadster

Rayan Cherki has an Topps Now card from 19/20 (might have been the first card with the new "RC" symbol), plus the usual domestic French stuff for 20/21. Ihattaren lacks any hobby releases but has been in Dutch domestic market releases in 19/20, 20/21. All the low hanging fruit has been picked by Panini and Topps over the last couple of seasons.

Good to know.

I'm still relatively new to soccer cards in the grand scheme of things, so I've been sticking to main releases that get put out in hobby/retail along with a sliver of MegaCracks (since that's by far the most well known European domestic product here in the US) for my little spreadsheet.

Demand on Print cards and TCG cards I haven't included. From what I've gathered, mileage greatly varies person to person on how to treat those so I don't include them.

But to OP's subject, all the RCs have been and are getting gobbled up.

Topps, between Champions and Europa, are going to have much larger access to these guys. Now having access to more of the top-of-the-table teams from France, Portugal, Austria, Netherlands, etc. - why wouldn't they pile all the RCs onto cardboard? What's stopping them from going through these Top Golden Boy lists and putting in everyone from Salzburg, Sporting CP, etc. at this point?

So that leaves Panini with... Brazil and Argentina?

For potential World Cup set True RCs?

It's slim pickings, to put it kindly. Rodrygo and Vinny Jr. have barely gotten caps with the Brazilian team. The likelihood of Kaio Jorge or Veron (or any of the others I listed) being on teams or capped for WC2022 is slim to none.

A 2022 World Cup set is going to have to be all about veterans, legends, strong autos/memorabilia, and everyone wanting "First World Cup Prizm Card" (and lots of USMNT ha).