Could a SB trophy help any young gun reach Mahomes price levels?

hermanotarjeta · 10-02-2021, 11:30 AM

If any QB from the 2018 draft class on (mayfield, Allen, Lamar, Murray, Herbert, burrow, etc) wins a super bowl in the next three years, could their cards achieve mahomes rookie card price level?

If not, what sets mahomes cards apart? Pandemic pump? Economy?

If so, whose cards could and whose cards could never reach those prices, even with multiple super bowl wins?

JeremyNick · 10-02-2021, 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

If any QB from the 2018 draft class on (mayfield, Allen, Lamar, Murray, Herbert, burrow, etc) wins a super bowl in the next three years, could their cards achieve mahomes rookie card price level?

If not, what sets mahomes cards apart? Pandemic pump? Economy?

If so, whose cards could and whose cards could never reach those prices, even with multiple super bowl wins?

Mahomes was a perfect storm of circumstances.

Relatively cheap cards out of the gate
In front of the Prizm bass hype
Riding the bench the first year and only one year
Incredible stats/success as a first year starter
Follow up successful year with a higher level of success
Not much drop off year 3
All of this happening during the pandemic with rising wax and singles prices and he becomes the face of collecting
Lastly he came into early success during the time Brady is shattering records and normalizing otherworldly play.

I don’t know that Mahomes can sustain his prices right now, better yet another young QB, given the myriad of perfect circumstances. Mahomes may help to set a new collecting floor or if he can sustain performance and baked in expectations. It not we could see a minor to meditate pullback. If he falls off for any reason, it could be catastrophic for prices and the investment side of the hobby.

Really interesting time.

49erRCCollector · 10-02-2021, 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

If any QB from the 2018 draft class on (mayfield, Allen, Lamar, Murray, Herbert, burrow, etc) wins a super bowl in the next three years, could their cards achieve mahomes rookie card price level?

If not, what sets mahomes cards apart? Pandemic pump? Economy?

If so, whose cards could and whose cards could never reach those prices, even with multiple super bowl wins?

People really want to Herbert to be a thing, so if actually does do something? I could see everyone going nuts there.

k13 · 10-02-2021, 01:36 PM

Only Herbert can come close.

Plus Mahomes has to struggle for a while.

k13 · 10-02-2021, 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

If he falls off for any reason, it could be catastrophic for prices and the investment side of the hobby.

Really interesting time.

Not if but when.

The money will just go to the next hype.
Rinse. Repeat.

Spartyon · 10-02-2021, 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by k13

Only Herbert can come close.

Plus Mahomes has to struggle for a while.

Is mahomes struggling? Or did the team just happen to lose 2 games?

940 yds, 9:3 TD:int ratio, 4th in QBR through 3 games is pretty terrible I guess

Another horrible take from K13

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notfast · 10-02-2021, 03:30 PM

I think the only person that can come close is Lamar. Another MVP and a ring should elevate him to Mahomes-ish levels.

jewcer2k5 · 10-02-2021, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by notfast

I think the only person that can come close is Lamar. Another MVP and a ring should elevate him to Mahomes-ish levels.

No one likes running backs.

jplarson · 10-02-2021, 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spartyon

Is mahomes struggling? Or did the team just happen to lose 2 games?

940 yds, 9:3 TD:int ratio, 4th in QBR through 3 games is pretty terrible I guess

Another horrible take from K13

Usually I'm there with you about kay-thirteen but I think he's saying that "Mahomes has to struggle for a while", implying a long period of future subpar performances will lower his values and not that he's currently struggling. As opposed to "Mahomes has struggled for a while", saying that his is in the midst of struggling to the point of lowering values.

At least that's how I took it.

JeremyNick · 10-02-2021, 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spartyon

Is mahomes struggling? Or did the team just happen to lose 2 games?

940 yds, 9:3 TD:int ratio, 4th in QBR through 3 games is pretty terrible I guess

Another horrible take from K13

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He didn’t even say he was struggling now.

He just said he would have to struggle for a while.

Don’t be so trigger happy.

Spartyon · 10-02-2021, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

He didn’t even say he was struggling now.

He just said he would have to struggle for a while.

Don’t be so trigger happy.

K13 has earned it. Thanks for your concern

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JeremyNick · 10-02-2021, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spartyon

K13 has earned it. Thanks for your concern

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Well keep racking up the dumb takes too then.

Spartyon · 10-02-2021, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jplarson

Usually I'm there with you about kay-thirteen but I think he's saying that "Mahomes has to struggle for a while", implying a long period of future subpar performances will lower his values and not that he's currently struggling. As opposed to "Mahomes has struggled for a while", saying that his is in the midst of struggling to the point of lowering values.

At least that's how I took it.

I guess I used his past performance to predict what he meant by his post

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Spartyon · 10-02-2021, 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

Well keep racking up the dumb takes too then.

Are you and K13 bros or something? Or you just got a beef with me? Cool either way, just keeping score at home

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JeremyNick · 10-02-2021, 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spartyon

Are you and K13 bros or something? Or you just got a beef with me? Cool either way, just keeping score at home

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It would have been easier to just say “my bad”. Now you’re just throwing punches blindly.

hermanotarjeta · 10-02-2021, 04:59 PM

As alluded to by JN, if Patrick Mahomes card pricing were a perfect storm, does that mean Lamar Jackson and Herbert cards could likely never achieve that level, ie 6-figure National Treasures RPA level?

Could we not see two perfect storms this generation?

Is there no possibility that even with a ring or two Baker Mayfield stuff could never sniff close to 6 figures for an NT RPA?

It's amazing that Mahomes stuff can be up to ten times more expensive than many of his other QB contemporaries and that nothing else they could do could match those levels - unless perhaps everyone else is relatively undervalued?

Anyone willing to take a possible 10-bagger chance at some NT rpa's that are less than ten grand for now with a possible reward of $100K?

Or is there a theoretical ceiling that someone like Herbert could never surpass even $75k with a ring or two or three?

Spartyon · 10-02-2021, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

It would have been easier to just say “my bad”. Now you’re just throwing punches blindly.

But it wasn’t “my bad.” I only posted what I did because it was K13. I’m not throwing any punches at you, you did with your “keep racking up the dumb takes too then” post.

I ain’t got a problem with ya, but your hypocrisy in such a short span of time here is impressive

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Archangel1775 · 10-02-2021, 05:07 PM

Seems like the starting price for any young QB's NTRPA is $5k to $10K. I already see Herbert at $25K-$50k. Seems like a SB is already built in.

pcptrade · 10-02-2021, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Seems like the starting price for any young QB's NTRPA is $5k to $10K. I already see Herbert at $25K-$50k. Seems like a SB is already built in.

And he has not won an MVP and SB yet. If he does, they could go up 2-3X. Mahomes NT RPA/99 BGS 8.5 sell as low as 100K depending on the patch.

JeremyNick · 10-02-2021, 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spartyon

But it wasn’t “my bad.” I only posted what I did because it was K13. I’m not throwing any punches at you, you did with your “keep racking up the dumb takes too then” post.

I ain’t got a problem with ya, but your hypocrisy in such a short span of time here is impressive

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Who cares who posts it. You misread it and went off.

Now you blame him and keep spouting nonsense at me.

And yes, I called out your terrible take. Sorry if that offended you.

Stay safe out there.

tjforce · 10-02-2021, 05:23 PM

Back to the OPs questions...

to get to Mahomes levels, the guy will need to win a SB, and not only play at MVP level, but play historically great across that whole 3 year span.

Part of what is setting Mahomes apart right now is that he is the NFL's all time leader in things like QB Rating, Yards passing per game, NY/A, AJ/A, and a few more. So it's not just about winning, it's about winning and putting up video game numbers.

The regular season Lamar had 2 years ago could get him there if he could do the same every season and in the playoffs. But Lamar's passing is continuing to regress. I know it's only 3 games, but he's even taken a step back from last in most passing categoies.

Looking at Allen, it would be hard to equal Mahomes with 1 Super Bowl. Looking at his career numbers, his first two years are going to hold back any historical rankings that he can achieve with the next few year's work. Thought 46 career games his QB rating is under 91, and he's thrown for 224 yards per game... that's 84 less than Mahomes.

Realistically, the best set up is Herbert. He has a chance to beat Mahomes twice a year each regular season. Seems to have a decent team around him and is in a good market. The real question is if he's truly and all-world QB. He was great last week vs the Chiefs. The two games before that he had 2 tds to 3 ints. Way to early in his career and this season to tell what his real ceiling is, but the setup is there.

21stguy · 10-02-2021, 05:35 PM

If the market stays as it is right now until (and / if ) Herbert wins SB this year I can see his prices going totally nuts. Actually in such a scenario it would be hard not to see that happen for me.

Look at his higher end cards going up in price recently, not even talking about the 11k Kaboom sale (if legit or not) but stuff like Rookie Tickets which went for 5-5.5 preseason going 8ish now.

gopowergoh · 10-02-2021, 05:41 PM

I'm a huge herbert fan and collector, his prices are so high, the only way they go up or stay high is if he wins an mvp or superbowl. Then him vs mahomes will be a real thing

JeremyNick · 10-02-2021, 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 21stguy

If the market stays as it is right now until (and / if ) Herbert wins SB this year I can see his prices going totally nuts. Actually in such a scenario it would be hard not to see that happen for me.

Look at his higher end cards going up in price recently, not even talking about the 11k Kaboom sale (if legit or not) but stuff like Rookie Tickets which went for 5-5.5 preseason going 8ish now.

For me there is way too much speculation/$$$ involved in anyone not named Brady.

I agree though SB or MVP this year and his prices would skyrocket. I don’t think MVP is realistic but SB may be more realistic. So many good young arms.

Spartyon · 10-02-2021, 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

Who cares who posts it. You misread it and went off.

Now you blame him and keep spouting nonsense at me.

And yes, I called out your terrible take. Sorry if that offended you.

Stay safe out there.

My terrible take being that k13 had a terrible take? Nice one. I’m not blaming him, he acts like a jack*** all the time so I respond to him like one. Then you decided to butt in and start crap with me.

Only in this new world we are in can a person like you exist.

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10-02-2021, 11:30 AM	#1
hermanotarjeta Member Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 22,975	Could a SB trophy help any young gun reach Mahomes price levels? If any QB from the 2018 draft class on (mayfield, Allen, Lamar, Murray, Herbert, burrow, etc) wins a super bowl in the next three years, could their cards achieve mahomes rookie card price level? If not, what sets mahomes cards apart? Pandemic pump? Economy? If so, whose cards could and whose cards could never reach those prices, even with multiple super bowl wins?

10-02-2021, 05:07 PM	#18
Archangel1775 Member Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: Cali baby! Posts: 22,037	Seems like the starting price for any young QB's NTRPA is $5k to $10K. I already see Herbert at $25K-$50k. Seems like a SB is already built in. __________________ *There are the intangibles that set someone apart from the pack.So the blur isn't your inability to see his greatness, it's merely the inability to measure it.*

10-02-2021, 05:23 PM	#21
tjforce Member Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 23,636	Back to the OPs questions... to get to Mahomes levels, the guy will need to win a SB, and not only play at MVP level, but play historically great across that whole 3 year span. Part of what is setting Mahomes apart right now is that he is the NFL's all time leader in things like QB Rating, Yards passing per game, NY/A, AJ/A, and a few more. So it's not just about winning, it's about winning and putting up video game numbers. The regular season Lamar had 2 years ago could get him there if he could do the same every season and in the playoffs. But Lamar's passing is continuing to regress. I know it's only 3 games, but he's even taken a step back from last in most passing categoies. Looking at Allen, it would be hard to equal Mahomes with 1 Super Bowl. Looking at his career numbers, his first two years are going to hold back any historical rankings that he can achieve with the next few year's work. Thought 46 career games his QB rating is under 91, and he's thrown for 224 yards per game... that's 84 less than Mahomes. Realistically, the best set up is Herbert. He has a chance to beat Mahomes twice a year each regular season. Seems to have a decent team around him and is in a good market. The real question is if he's truly and all-world QB. He was great last week vs the Chiefs. The two games before that he had 2 tds to 3 ints. Way to early in his career and this season to tell what his real ceiling is, but the setup is there. __________________ "Whether you like it or not, learn to love it, because it’s the best thing going. Wooooo!"

10-02-2021, 05:41 PM	#23
gopowergoh Member Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 1,104	I'm a huge herbert fan and collector, his prices are so high, the only way they go up or stay high is if he wins an mvp or superbowl. Then him vs mahomes will be a real thing __________________ https://www.flickr.com/photos/193561529@N03/albums

10-02-2021, 01:36 PM	#4
k13 Banned Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 12,617	Only Herbert can come close. Plus Mahomes has to struggle for a while.

10-02-2021, 03:30 PM	#7
notfast Member Join Date: Jul 2017 Location: MD Posts: 4,056	I think the only person that can come close is Lamar. Another MVP and a ring should elevate him to Mahomes-ish levels.

10-02-2021, 04:59 PM	#16
hermanotarjeta Member Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 22,975	As alluded to by JN, if Patrick Mahomes card pricing were a perfect storm, does that mean Lamar Jackson and Herbert cards could likely never achieve that level, ie 6-figure National Treasures RPA level? Could we not see two perfect storms this generation? Is there no possibility that even with a ring or two Baker Mayfield stuff could never sniff close to 6 figures for an NT RPA? It's amazing that Mahomes stuff can be up to ten times more expensive than many of his other QB contemporaries and that nothing else they could do could match those levels - unless perhaps everyone else is relatively undervalued? Anyone willing to take a possible 10-bagger chance at some NT rpa's that are less than ten grand for now with a possible reward of $100K? Or is there a theoretical ceiling that someone like Herbert could never surpass even $75k with a ring or two or three?

10-02-2021, 05:35 PM	#22
21stguy Member Join Date: Sep 2020 Location: Instagram: 21stcardguy Posts: 459	If the market stays as it is right now until (and / if ) Herbert wins SB this year I can see his prices going totally nuts. Actually in such a scenario it would be hard not to see that happen for me. Look at his higher end cards going up in price recently, not even talking about the 11k Kaboom sale (if legit or not) but stuff like Rookie Tickets which went for 5-5.5 preseason going 8ish now.