RWPERU34's Secret Hobby Sauce, 2021 Final Edition

[rwperu34]

This is for batting only. I don't know how much being a hitter and pitcher affects thing other than "a lot". I do know age and team also matter a lot and they are also not accounted for in this ranking.

The Top 10

#1. Vlad-To give an idea of how far out in front he is, the difference between #1 and #2 is the same as #3 to #17.
#2. Salvador Perez-Pretty big drop from #2 to #3, equivalent to #3 to #11. Given how much this season impacted his HOF chances I would be surprised if his prices are not up at least 3-4x.
#3. Teoscar Hernandez
#4. Fernando Tatis Jr.
#5. Rafael Deveres
#6. Shohei Ohtani
#7. Marcus Semien
#8. Austin Riley
#9. Nick Castellanos
#10. Bo Bichette
#11. Matt Olson
#12. Aaron Judge

I realize that's 12. Those last three are tight. There is drop from #12 to #13.

Impact On Prices

Disclaimers

It would be better to compare this to preseason projection. Even better would be how much this season impacts a player's projection which in turn is only as important as how much it impacts HOF/GOAT chances. A breakout at 27 isn't the same as 25 which isn't the same as 22.

Keep in mind I am limited by who I put in my price index in November. So no Perez...or most of the top 10. Ohtani is also not in it due to no BCA.

I project November to November and the prices I'm using here are from mid September.

The Meat Of It

The four biggest gainers are Vlad (#1), Devers (#5), Gallo (#77-Traded to Yankees), and Tatis (#4). So far so good.

The next group of gainers includes Harper (#15) and Tucker (#18). Once again...good. The outlier would be Acuna (#74). His projection will definitely improve, if only a little. His production was early which also helps. I don't know how much this year helped his HOF chances though.

The bottom of the list is all guys who had crappy years.

The guys in the middle that look like outliers to me;

Aaron Judge (#12)-He's up, but did not keep pace with the market. He finished 7 hits, 1 HR, and 2 RBI short of a .300/40/100 season. I think if he gets there in 2 or all 3 it affects his prices.

Bo Bichette (#10)-He ends up flat, trailing the average player by 30%. His year was obviously huge, but I think he was overpriced coming in. He was one of the guys who I said "avoid at all costs" coming in to the season. Being 4th on his team didn't help either.

LouBob (#107)-Combines similarities with Acuna (improved projection) and Bichette (on my avoid list coming in).

Soto (#16) and Yordan (#19) are guys who had good years but fell short of expectations.

Two guys who outpaced the market (albeit only slightly) by wrestling away starting jobs are Brendan Rodgers (#123) and Luis Garcia (#333). I'm hoping to benefit from this with Isaac Paredes next year.

[LVDan]

I don't pretend to know anything about your secret sauce(ours at Broncoburger is just ketchup and mayonnaise) but where did Tyler O'neill end up?
I'll listen off the air.

[SupermanBrandon]

I have zero clue as to what any of this means. Can I get a "secret sauce for dummies" handout?

[shortstopguy12]

Nice write-up. I'm not sure what Bo's prices were before the season, but I am buying his stuff now. He had a great year after a super slow start. I'm buying going into next year, unless the prices explode

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by shortstopguy12

Nice write-up. I'm not sure what Bo's prices were before the season, but I am buying his stuff now. He had a great year after a super slow start. I'm buying going into next year, unless the prices explode

To give you a 1-card example, his 2020 TC Refractor PSA 10 was going for ~$220 during spring training, and can be had now for around ~$170.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

I have zero clue as to what any of this means. Can I get a "secret sauce for dummies" handout?

I was scratching my head over here feeling like an idiot as well. Glad I'm not alone. I'm sure its great information, but I feel like an introduction sentence was left out.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by LVDan

I don't pretend to know anything about your secret sauce(ours at Broncoburger is just ketchup and mayonnaise) but where did Tyler O'neill end up?
I'll listen off the air.

#27. He's held back by playing time. Only 138 games and 537 plate appearances.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by shortstopguy12

Nice write-up. I'm not sure what Bo's prices were before the season, but I am buying his stuff now. He had a great year after a super slow start. I'm buying going into next year, unless the prices explode

Bo is basically where he was last Novemeber, well below where he was in April.

[LVDan]

I think if everyone can just erase from their memory all pricing from Jan-April this year we'd all be better off. It skews all discussion and makes everything look depressed now.
We've seemingly re-entered a reality based card pricing cycle based upon more basic seasonal and performance related trends, as normal.

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

#27. He's held back by playing time. Only 138 games and 537 plate appearances.

so buff though

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

I have zero clue as to what any of this means. Can I get a "secret sauce for dummies" handout?

It's my rudimentary attempt to rate how on field performance affects hobby prices.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by LVDan

I think if everyone can just erase from their memory all pricing from Jan-April this year we'd all be better off. It skews all discussion and makes everything look depressed now.
We've seemingly re-entered a reality based card pricing cycle based upon more basic seasonal and performance related trends, as normal.

Absolutely. Gain by average player is my new go to metric. The average player peaked at 170 in April and has since regressed to more normal 130. To me the big question what happens this spring? Do we have a big run up, a normal run up, or flat/down because of labor issues?

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Absolutely. Gain by average player is my new go to metric. The average player peaked at 170 in April and has since regressed to more normal 130. To me the big question what happens this spring? Do we have a big run up, a normal run up, or flat/down because of labor issues?

Makes sense
Slam a TC refractor RC into the math for guys w n BC auto.
The new improved “RC+” stat.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Nostalgia]

Is there a special sauce for pitchers?

[Yaga]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

This is for batting only. I don't know how much being a hitter and pitcher affects thing other than "a lot". I do know age and team also matter a lot and they are also not accounted for in this ranking.

The Top 10

#1. Vlad-To give an idea of how far out in front he is, the difference between #1 and #2 is the same as #3 to #17.
#2. Salvador Perez-Pretty big drop from #2 to #3, equivalent to #3 to #11. Given how much this season impacted his HOF chances I would be surprised if his prices are not up at least 3-4x.
[B]#3. Teoscar Hernandez
#4. Fernando Tatis Jr.
#5. Rafael Deveres

I don't get it and didn't get past "Rafael Deveres" lol

[no10pin]

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by Nostalgia

Is there a special sauce for pitchers?

Thousand Island Dressing.

I have my own pitcher breakout formula but it's heavily reliant on non tangible things like whimsy and whatever I been drinkin'.

[Nostalgia]

hahaha

[no10pin]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Absolutely. Gain by average player is my new go to metric. The average player peaked at 170 in April and has since regressed to more normal 130. To me the big question what happens this spring? Do we have a big run up, a normal run up, or flat/down because of labor issues?

I'll just go ahead and ask.

What exactly does your Top 10 12 represent? You just said the guy in 10th place has seen his prices drop over the past six months, so how did he make the top 10?

[oddstuff]

I believe you are comparing 1st Bowman Chrome auto prices between November 2020 to current right? True what LVDan said about Jan-Apr this year where prices went red hot and then began a steady downward spiral with possibly the exception of Ohtani/Guerrero. Do you have older data going back to 2017/2018 when the 1st BCA of the current most sought after players first came out (Soto/Tatis/Guerrero '16, Acuna '17 and Ohtani '18)?

[Bambino22]

Soto prices are still down from his peak coming in. Amazing given the year he had what expectations were.

[ucLAkers]

Originally Posted by Nostalgia

Is there a special sauce for pitchers?

Yes….the Dodgers

[oddstuff]

Originally Posted by Bambino22

Soto prices are still down from his peak coming in. Amazing given the year he had what expectations were.

Probably the only way to have met the preseason expectations/prices would be if Soto had won the triple crown, the MVP and led the Nats to a World Series win.

[Nostalgia]

Originally Posted by Bambino22

Soto prices are still down from his peak coming in. Amazing given the year he had what expectations were.

Maybe the pop count has to do with it?

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Nostalgia

Is there a special sauce for pitchers?

I don't have one.