What do you think about Pop reports?

[jjrpilot]

I'd love to get your opinion on pop reports. It seems like everyone loves to cite them yet the sheer number of cracking slabs & resubmissions seems like pop reports are on the verge of being completely useless...right?

[monkeymcgee]

Depends if I'm buying or selling

[ThoseBackPages]

player is more important than a pop report

[jjrpilot]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

player is more important than a pop report

Absolutely Sir!

[cardsin47]

They are one of many valuable Tools in the Toolbox that allow you to look at the Hobby from 30,000 feet, which has a much different view than what you see from within your own 4 walls…..

[discodanman45]

Pop reports are used by people to inflate the value of their cards or to justify their "investment." Supply and demand dictate value, not population of a card.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by jjrpilot

I'd love to get your opinion on pop reports. It seems like everyone loves to cite them yet the sheer number of cracking slabs & resubmissions seems like pop reports are on the verge of being completely useless...right?

Of course they’re useless because they don’t help generate profit for the widest possible number of cards.

If pop counts were meaningful then every Superfractor and pop 1 slab would be worth thousands of dollars whether raw or slabbed, common or all-time great.

So many people are so easily manipulated into thinking something is valuable when it really shouldn’t be. But this ridiculousness is exactly what draws so many people into selling/flipping cards.

[Oachs83]

Depends imo. If 1000 of the same card has been graded but only 60 are a 10 grade then yes I take that into account as that card is obviously a tough card to gem. Example 2020 Topps heritage seem to be a tough set in general due to the black borders chipping very easy.

What cracks me up are the guys selling low serial numbered cards like /25 and write “low pop!!”. Haha all 25 are low pop buddy.

[aro13]

In term of pre-1990 sets I think the pop report is a valuable tool. Yes, there are been plenty of resubmits and crossovers which affect the report but the relative population stays the same. Take 1986 Fleer Basketball one look at the PSA pop report will tell you which cards are the most difficult to find in a 10.
Or in baseball which cards are the hardest to find in high grade from any 1950's or 60's sets. In 1976 Topps George Brett has had almost 3000 of his card submitted - there have been zero tens and 28 nines. Without having a population report and without collecting that set I would have no idea why Brett was so expensive in high grade.

[jsatx]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Supply and demand dictate value, not population of a card.

That's an interesting way to look at it. I would have considered the population to be the supply, though I guess some of those aren't available. So what do you consider the supply of the card I use as my avatar? It's a PSA 10 2004 Topps Molina Gold /2004, pop 13 last I checked. Do you consider the supply to be 2004, 13, 1 (the number currently for sale on eBay at a ridiculous price), another number?

[LVDan]

I don’t. I don’t grade cards and I’m not in competition with others to get the most pats on my head from PSA that deem my cards superior to others.
For highly graded low pop gems Im sure it’s a valuable selling tool.


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[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by jsatx

That's an interesting way to look at it. I would have considered the population to be the supply, though I guess some of those aren't available. So what do you consider the supply of the card I use as my avatar? It's a PSA 10 2004 Topps Molina Gold /2004, pop 13 last I checked. Do you consider the supply to be 2004, 13, 1 (the number currently for sale on eBay at a ridiculous price), another number?

I look at how many appear to be in the marketplace, graded or ungraded. Right now, population of graded cards, especially with ultra-modern, are artificially low because of the grading market. The raw card populations need to be considered when I buy slabs. If I can buy a modernish raw card for $20 and the PSA 10 version is $500 because of "low pops," I stay away. I have some of these types of cards and just keep them in my PC but will eventually trade them. The Jordan SP1 is one of these cards. A lot of Kobe rookies are like this as well.

Then you have low pop cards that no one cares about and have low demand. Checking sales is important as well. How often they sell and how many are available. The 1996 Topps NBA 50th cards are a great example of extremely low population and low demand. They are much lower population than Topps Chrome, won't hulk, but have no hobby love. Even raw, some of these are extremely hard to find, much easier to find the Topps Chrome version.

Populations at PSA would only mean something to me if it was known that 90% of the cards were graded by them. You can't ignore the raw market. Numbered cards are a different beast all together. I don't get why a card /10 is so much more expensive if it grades a PSA 10 versus another that gets a PSA 9. There are only 10 of them anyways.

Then you have vintage sets like 1951 Topps Red/Blue Backs where people pay $20 for a creased card and won't pay $50 for a PSA 6 card. You actually lose money with grading fees by grading cards that are pretty rare.

[sheetskout]

Its...data. It doesn't influence me all that much but I'm fine with it being available.

[KhalDrogo]

Registry is the way.

[NYRE2PECT]

Depends on how you use the registry.

Pop report for 1993 #279 - no so helpful due to the voluminous crackouts and resubs.

Pop report for low numbered cards that you are set building - very helpful. Example 2019 Panini Timeless Treasures #19 PSA - 1(7) , 7(8), 7(9), 1(10) means if you see a 9 you'd better grab it

I am probably in the minority that finds the registry beneficial in narrowing what it is that I am chasing. There are so many cards, so many players, so many parallels, and other things that I find that I benefit from having a clear and concise collecting (checklist) focus.

YMMV.

[vinnieb]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

I look at how many appear to be in the marketplace, graded or ungraded. Right now, population of graded cards, especially with ultra-modern, are artificially low because of the grading market. The raw card populations need to be considered when I buy slabs. If I can buy a modernish raw card for $20 and the PSA 10 version is $500 because of "low pops," I stay away. I have some of these types of cards and just keep them in my PC but will eventually trade them. The Jordan SP1 is one of these cards. A lot of Kobe rookies are like this as well.

Then you have low pop cards that no one cares about and have low demand. Checking sales is important as well. How often they sell and how many are available. The 1996 Topps NBA 50th cards are a great example of extremely low population and low demand. They are much lower population than Topps Chrome, won't hulk, but have no hobby love. Even raw, some of these are extremely hard to find, much easier to find the Topps Chrome version.

Populations at PSA would only mean something to me if it was known that 90% of the cards were graded by them. You can't ignore the raw market. Numbered cards are a different beast all together. I don't get why a card /10 is so much more expensive if it grades a PSA 10 versus another that gets a PSA 9. There are only 10 of them anyways.

Then you have vintage sets like 1951 Topps Red/Blue Backs where people pay $20 for a creased card and won't pay $50 for a PSA 6 card. You actually lose money with grading fees by grading cards that are pretty rare.

I get what your saying here, but your initial argument that supply and demand dictates value is more spot on, and this is exactly why the pop report is important to value. It plays a large part of the whole supply and demand dynamic, no? Yes, PSA is just one grading card company, so you can't say that you know exactly how many there are in the world, but you can say exactly how many there are of that card (graded by PSA) at that time, which is important. Also, PSA is still, as far as I know, the premier grader of cards and fetches a higher price, typically, so it has to matter.

Supply and demand can certainly be out of whack at times, which it likely has been over the past few years, so it may not be the end all be all at that time, but eventually it will even out, that's sort of why the law of supply and demand exists, it's not a theoretical thing.

Low pop cards that no-one cares about is the other half of the supply and demand thing. If no-one wants a card it doesn't matter what the pop report says.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by vinnieb

I get what your saying here, but your initial argument that supply and demand dictates value is more spot on, and this is exactly why the pop report is important to value. It plays a large part of the whole supply and demand dynamic, no?

I am a physicist, so I like to look a correlation. POP reports to me are a subset of cards and I don't like to look at them separately from raw cards. I think the price correlation between raw cards and PSA 9's(PSA 8's for pre-2000's) are more useful than any POP report for junk wax to modern cards. I actually chart raw sales more than graded sales, it really shows me how much the cards are truly desired and not desired in a slab. Especially with slab costs so high, the value of the POP report is artificially inflated right now.

Example 1 - 1989 Ken Griffey UD
Raw cards that look like PSA 8 range sell in the $60 to $80 range and a PSA 8 sells for $80 to $90. This makes sense and shows the raw card sales are in align with PSA graded cards. It also makes sense for a buyer to take a gamble to try to get that raw card and try to get a PSA 9. This card is very high population, but a very stable card with high demand.

Example 2 - Anthony Edwards #258 Base Prizm Rookie
A PSA 9 sells for $60 to $80 and raw cards go from $15 to $20. Once we get into this 4x multiplier we can see that the card value is being propped up from low population numbers.

Many Shaq and Kobe rookies suffer from this as well. The raw cards fall well below their graded card equivalent. Once I start to see this 4x multiplier it makes me hesitate about buying the graded card. You are not buying the card, but you are buying the slab. As time goes on the graded card will go down in price and the raw copies will maintain or even go up.

This is why I don't check population reports. To me the raw to graded price is a lot more telling to me. Then we have the PSA 10 collectors that just use the slab to show off. The value is absolutely ridiculous for some PSA 10's from the 80's to present. I spent $200 on the following three cards with grading fees and now they are worth $6000. The value is 100% tied to the POP Reports in this case and have nothing to do with the card. People want them to show off and get higher points in the registry. Throw these cards in SGC 10 holders and the value goes down to 20% of this value.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

This is why I don't check population reports. To me the raw to graded price is a lot more telling to me. Then we have the PSA 10 collectors that just use the slab to show off. The value is absolutely ridiculous for some PSA 10's from the 80's to present. I spent $200 on the following three cards with grading fees and now they are worth $6000. The value is 100% tied to the POP Reports in this case and have nothing to do with the card. People want them to show off and get higher points in the registry. Throw these cards in SGC 10 holders and the value goes down to 20% of this value.

Many of us enjoy competition. And no other company has put the resources into developing a usable registry yet. A cross registry for the big four would also be fun.

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Pop reports are used by people to inflate the value of their cards or to justify their "investment." Supply and demand dictate value, not population of a card.

I agree, but these two things are basically the same.

Demand is the only part of the equation missing when folks discuss "pop"

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Many of us enjoy competition. And no other company has put the resources into developing a usable registry yet. A cross registry for the big four would also be fun.

I have been asking for a cross registry for the past year. Absolutely silly that a company like Market Movers never did this. Just don't allow HGA/GMA and it would be great!

[discodanman45]

Double post

[Archangel1775]

Investorbois are just learning about population reports. It'll be fun.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Investorbois are just learning about population reports. It'll be fun.

Their “job” is to make buyers forget common sense though. Some think they can overcome basic economics…or better yet trick someone else into thinking they can.

[hermanotarjeta]

It's better for low pop stuff - like things numbered to 25 or less.

[Geoff G]

I buy what I like … Ive never even thought about a pop report when buying a card .. the only thing I use a pop report for is gem rate or how hard a card is to gem .. I like trying to beat the odds ..


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