The Future of Slabs/Card Grading

[MegaMan]

Caveats to this line of thought/inquiry: I've been a collector on and off since the late 1980s and got into modern cards again over the past few years. I believe I'm somewhat sophisticated and informed, generally speaking, with regards to the hobby, but nowhere near the level of some people on this board and elsewhere out there. I'll also put it up front that I've been (and to some extent remain) just as thrilled as the next guy to acquire (pre-graded or through my own submission) a PSA 10 or a BGS "Pristine" copy of a card I'm after. So I'm curious to get some other people's thoughts...

1) is a widespread backlash to the "business of card grading" inevitable or already occurring due to drastically increased prices/wait times, grading scandals of one sort or another, etc?

2) due perhaps in part to the massive uptick in interest/submissions over the last couple years and a desire not to completely dilute the market with 10s (i.e., "Junk Wax (Slabs) Era 2.0"), is anyone else noticing that (specific to PSA at least, in my own experience, but perhaps others as well) a Gem Mint designation on a "straight out of the pack and seemingly perfect looking" modern card seems tougher than ever to acquire? Even seeing 8s for cards with great centering and no visible flaws, etc, etc.

3) not sure which/how many other recent sets fit the bill, but it seems like 2022 Heritage is getting some early notoriety for condition-sensitivity. I like this brand and have acquired some mid- to high-end singles (both base and chrome) in the early days of its release. In the majority of instances you can tell they're "pack fresh" but do exhibit flaws on the edges and corners. You can also sort of lump "print lines" on most chromes into this category as well. Point being, it's right out of the pack, looks for all intents and purposes pretty decent, but is probably still just a 7-8, maybe a 9 if you're lucky (esp lately!).

4) I like slabbed cards - the presentation, the protection, that little extra "premium" feel they carry - but I do wonder how this part of the industry will look a few years down the road. Based in 1)-3) above and other considerations, I'm even thinking about going the route of merely authenticating the cards that I value most (either for eventual sale or in my own PC) and forgetting about the numerical grade, just getting them protected and verified as real/unaltered/etc. - once prices and wait times return to normal (if ever).

Apologies if this post became too long and out of the norm for this board. Relatively new here, just thought I'd put all this out there for consideration and hopefully some responses that will enlighten myself and others!

[Goldie]

1) I think people are very justifiably angry at how the two major grading companies (and to a lesser extent the smaller companies) handled the flooding of cards that came in, and the fact that BGS basically shut down and PSA is putting so much effort into grading new submissions at the expense of clearing their backlog has led to backlash there. Grading is important though, because it limits the ability for a buyer to return the item because they are paying for a third-party verification. I think the growing popularity of SGC is a response to this backlash.

2) It does appear that grading standards have tightened.

3) I would imagine anyone who grades 2022 Heritage is lighting money on fire.

4) I think there is a lot of Venn diagram crossover between serious card collectors and anal retentiveness, and having cards stored uniformly fits for both of those. I think there will always be a market for a tag (whether or not it's respected or not) that says a card is what it is and the condition is what it says it is. It helps cards be more moveable in this day and age of easy returns.

[Raleigh504]

My take:

1) I think people in general are upset (PSA/BGS) that the cards they submitted before the shutdown are now less in value when they get them back. I had a feeling it would take awhile to get back, but not well over a year. Grading scandals happen all the time, it is mainly just the magnitude or if they are able to catch it and correct it.

2) I don't think they are grading harder (my sub last year will be coming back tomorrow) and I still got a lot of 10s and a few 9s. I just think people didn't look over the cards they were sending in and I am sure the newer graders didn't want to just give 10s out since they probably wanted to keep their job so I am sure there were some 9s that should be 10s but that happened even before all of this.

3) Yea QC isn't the main concern over these companies since they were just trying to print and get product out ASAP and mark up the product to capture the revenue. Hopefully it will change with Fanatics, but I would assume it probably won't and they will change their policy with exchanging damaged cards. This will also help with controlling or limiting 10s too.

4) I think they will still be valued (especially from reading another thread about showing off your collection and what you will do with it whenever you pass away). It is an easy way to quickly see the value of the card. I lean towards graded in general and now keep base ungraded. I will buy graded base but won't send any in unless its vintage.

If PSA gets a bulk submission at under $20 again, it will be big. I could see them limiting bulk with specific criteria. Only base cards, must be 5-10 years prior and also limiting who can send them in too.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by Goldie

1) I think people are very justifiably angry at how the two major grading companies (and to a lesser extent the smaller companies) handled the flooding of cards that came in, and the fact that BGS basically shut down and PSA is putting so much effort into grading new submissions at the expense of clearing their backlog has led to backlash there. Grading is important though, because it limits the ability for a buyer to return the item because they are paying for a third-party verification. I think the growing popularity of SGC is a response to this backlash.

2) It does appear that grading standards have tightened.

3) I would imagine anyone who grades 2022 Heritage is lighting money on fire.

4) I think there is a lot of Venn diagram crossover between serious card collectors and anal retentiveness, and having cards stored uniformly fits for both of those. I think there will always be a market for a tag (whether or not it's respected or not) that says a card is what it is and the condition is what it says it is. It helps cards be more moveable in this day and age of easy returns.

I am actually looking at SGC cards due to the cost, value after graded and turnaround time. Plus (for some reason) you can easily buy modern/ultra modern cards that are 9-9.5 for below the cost of grading.... and not just base cards, but numbered or autographed cards. I agree and think SGC will slowly take more market share and even be a valuable option for newer cards.

[MegaMan]

Thanks @Goldie and @Raleigh504 - lots of good thoughts! Acknowledged that (1) there is and always will be significant value in the authentication/verification angle of card grading in terms of resale, collections getting passed on, OCD collector tendencies (my own included), etc. (2) there is and always will be significant value in the authentication/verification of vintage cards (and even more recent releases) that came out prior to the explosion of slabs; certifying the condition of these cards is also a major value point due to internet selling, etc.

So maybe what I'm getting at is, for your ultra-modern releases and going forward, where authenticity and condition can almost be "assumed" (since, generally speaking, the majority of those in the business of buying and reselling cards have sleeves and cases and treats cards with some level of basic care), will there be a push towards getting cards slabbed, tagged, and authenticated but not necessarily graded, IF that can be accomplished at let's say 1/8 the current cost and wait time. And market value is more based on the eye test, so you'd still see some price disparity, but not as pronounced as a 9 versus a 10 in today's market. Not arguing that this would ultimately be better or worse, just that the hairsplitting seems to be verging towards almost completely arbitrary (and something of a big lottery ticket, on top of the lottery ticket that is card collecting in the first place!).

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by MegaMan

Thanks @Goldie and @Raleigh504 - lots of good thoughts! Acknowledged that (1) there is and always will be significant value in the authentication/verification angle of card grading in terms of resale, collections getting passed on, OCD collector tendencies (my own included), etc. (2) there is and always will be significant value in the authentication/verification of vintage cards (and even more recent releases) that came out prior to the explosion of slabs; certifying the condition of these cards is also a major value point due to internet selling, etc.

So maybe what I'm getting at is, for your ultra-modern releases and going forward, where authenticity and condition can almost be "assumed" (since, generally speaking, the majority of those in the business of buying and reselling cards have sleeves and cases and treats cards with some level of basic care), will there be a push towards getting cards slabbed, tagged, and authenticated but not necessarily graded, IF that can be accomplished at let's say 1/8 the current cost and wait time. And market value is more based on the eye test, so you'd still see some price disparity, but not as pronounced as a 9 versus a 10 in today's market. Not arguing that this would ultimately be better or worse, just that the hairsplitting seems to be verging towards almost completely arbitrary (and something of a big lottery ticket, on top of the lottery ticket that is card collecting in the first place!).

No. Grades still matter, even with ultra modern cards. “Fresh out of the pack” means nothing to me, even if eBay sellers try to convince me otherwise. What type of premium should I pay for some saying, “Yup. That’s. 2019 Topps Chrome cards” without letting me know the condition? It could still have dings and surface scratches that I can’t see from photos. If I won’t pay a premium for it, sellers won’t pay to have the service done very often. I think it’s something all the major TPGs offer currently actually, but is rarely used. But yeah, as a collector who never sells and buys graded cards, I have no interest in a slab just telling the card is real. I need to know more. Basic authentication without a grade is useful for vintage, but I can’t see it catching on for ultra modern.

[mfw13]

Caveat.....I'm someone who has always been very skeptical of third-party grading.....

IMHO, what you're going to see moving forward is people thinking a bit more deeply about whether or not having a card slabbed is actually going to add value, and therefore becoming more selective about which cards they submit.

To start with, people are going to start to realize that in many cases, having a card slabbed may actually REDUCE its appeal and value. Reason #1 for this is the fact that many collectors still prefer raw cards, especially for sets & insert sets that are best enjoyed in sheets in binders. Reason #2 is that many of the people who collect slabbed cards have a strong preference for a specific company. So having a card slabbed by companies A, B, or C may reduce its appeal to fans of company D.

Secondly, people are going to realize that "Gem" copies of most modern cards are not scarce, and that sending in 99% of most modern cards in the hope of "gemming" is a waste of money, because nobody is going to actually pay enough of a premium for the "Gem" to cover the cost of grading them.

Last but not least is the possibility that the premiums people are willing to pay for the top grades may shrink for many cards, which may cause the whole grading ecosystem to collapse. My guess is that probably 70-80% of submissions are people hoping to "gem & flip" modern cards, and if that stops becoming profitable, then you've got problems.

[MegaMan]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

No. Grades still matter, even with ultra modern cards. “Fresh out of the pack” means nothing to me, even if eBay sellers try to convince me otherwise. What type of premium should I pay for some saying, “Yup. That’s. 2019 Topps Chrome cards” without letting me know the condition? It could still have dings and surface scratches that I can’t see from photos. If I won’t pay a premium for it, sellers won’t pay to have the service done very often. I think it’s something all the major TPGs offer currently actually, but is rarely used. But yeah, as a collector who never sells and buys graded cards, I have no interest in a slab just telling the card is real. I need to know more. Basic authentication without a grade is useful for vintage, but I can’t see it catching on for ultra modern.

Good points - so if you don't buy graded in the first place, what's an authentication slab really doing for you that a normal case isn't, and if you buy slabs you probably want the grade on there as well. I get that dings and surface scratches are common even with ultra-modern cards, but a lot of these are already there inside the pack (esp with auto cards) and not "added" by the puller. Point being, we're in total agreement that "fresh out of the pack" means nothing anymore. But in MOST instances, the defects are relatively minor unless you're really looking for them in great light/magnification (i.e., "grading conditions") - and if everyone agrees to agree that the modern 9 versus 10 isn't a very noticeable difference under most viewing conditions (esp since most cases/slabs/sleeves end up getting a little scratched anyway - and isn't that the point?!), it seems like the collectors could potentially stand to save big $$$ on grading fees with a cheaper and faster option, while the market sorts out condition, using the eyeball test to the best of its ability (given limitations on pictures viewed on your phone/computer screen). Definitely not a perfect solution by any stretch, but it seems the current system is not sustainable for 95% of collectors, and how does that impact things going forward. Really just curious to hear thoughts and opinions, as I don't have a fully formed best case scenario or opinion myself at this point. Thanks for adding yours!

[clocsta2323]

Originally Posted by MegaMan

Good points - so if you don't buy graded in the first place, what's an authentication slab really doing for you that a normal case isn't, and if you buy slabs you probably want the grade on there as well. I get that dings and surface scratches are common even with ultra-modern cards, but a lot of these are already there inside the pack (esp with auto cards) and not "added" by the puller. Point being, we're in total agreement that "fresh out of the pack" means nothing anymore. But in MOST instances, the defects are relatively minor unless you're really looking for them in great light/magnification (i.e., "grading conditions") - and if everyone agrees to agree that the modern 9 versus 10 isn't a very noticeable difference under most viewing conditions (esp since most cases/slabs/sleeves end up getting a little scratched anyway - and isn't that the point?!), it seems like the collectors could potentially stand to save big $$$ on grading fees with a cheaper and faster option, while the market sorts out condition, using the eyeball test to the best of its ability (given limitations on pictures viewed on your phone/computer screen). Definitely not a perfect solution by any stretch, but it seems the current system is not sustainable for 95% of collectors, and how does that impact things going forward. Really just curious to hear thoughts and opinions, as I don't have a fully formed best case scenario or opinion myself at this point. Thanks for adding yours!

The paragraph is your friend

[MegaMan]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Secondly, people are going to realize that "Gem" copies of most modern cards are not scarce, and that sending in 99% of most modern cards in the hope of "gemming" is a waste of money, because nobody is going to actually pay enough of a premium for the "Gem" to cover the cost of grading them.

Last but not least is the possibility that the premiums people are willing to pay for the top grades may shrink for many cards, which may cause the whole grading ecosystem to collapse. My guess is that probably 70-80% of submissions are people hoping to "gem & flip" modern cards, and if that stops becoming profitable, then you've got problems.

Exactly. It'll be interesting to see what comes out of the backlog at PSA, etc. and how quickly it all floods the market. I suspect that it's a bit like the diamond industry now, where they need to VERY carefully control the release of graded product or else risk devaluing everything, essentially overnight. I bet they could be getting stuff out quicker, but are being strategic about massive quantities of particular releases coming out all at once.

[MegaMan]

Originally Posted by clocsta2323

The paragraph is your friend

My bad. Message board Boomer here.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by MegaMan

Good points - so if you don't buy graded in the first place, what's an authentication slab really doing for you that a normal case isn't, and if you buy slabs you probably want the grade on there as well. I get that dings and surface scratches are common even with ultra-modern cards, but a lot of these are already there inside the pack (esp with auto cards) and not "added" by the puller. Point being, we're in total agreement that "fresh out of the pack" means nothing anymore. But in MOST instances, the defects are relatively minor unless you're really looking for them in great light/magnification (i.e., "grading conditions") - and if everyone agrees to agree that the modern 9 versus 10 isn't a very noticeable difference under most viewing conditions (esp since most cases/slabs/sleeves end up getting a little scratched anyway - and isn't that the point?!), it seems like the collectors could potentially stand to save big $$$ on grading fees with a cheaper and faster option, while the market sorts out condition, using the eyeball test to the best of its ability (given limitations on pictures viewed on your phone/computer screen). Definitely not a perfect solution by any stretch, but it seems the current system is not sustainable for 95% of collectors, and how does that impact things going forward. Really just curious to hear thoughts and opinions, as I don't have a fully formed best case scenario or opinion myself at this point. Thanks for adding yours!

Which studies did you conduct to arrive that number? Or do you have a link to a survey or something? Not trying to sound as sarcastic as that comes off, I’m just wondering where that number comes from. I think the market is working great for a lot of people right now (but things aren’t perfect, obviously). If this market was only working for 5% of the people in it… I mean, that’s a heck of a number. Things would change drastically.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

In general though, I’ll freely admit I’m not the best person to be talking about “the current state of the hobby market” since I’m just a Marlins fan who mainly buy Jazz Chisholm cards. I don’t concern myself much with future values. I just like cards in gem mint condition to satiate my OCD.

[soey10]

I think one of the things that got pushed to the back of the line when PSA closed down and hiked up their prices was the people who collect sets on the Registry.

The registry has been a big part of PSA's success and why people choose them over other grading card companies. There is no way that if you are collecting a set even from the 50's you will pay $50 to get a common graded.

I think some of the philosophy has changed on why people got cards graded in the past to why they are getting cards graded now.

The majority of people in the past sent in cards in my opinion to have a high grade or gem mint copy of cards from their collection which may increase the value, but this was not the reason for sending in the card originally. Because at $8-10 a card it was nice just to collect.

I feel like the philosophy today is almost entirely based on the projected value of the card if it comes back in a high grade, and truth be told with a $50 per card price tag for each card that should be high on the list when considering whether to grade or not.

[MegaMan]

Totally off the cuff, and I should've been more specific so as not to imply I meant the market as a whole is only working for 5%. I just meant with grading fees at PSA and BGS still being $50/card and up (last I checked), I suspect that's not affordable for lots of people - which is fine, doesn't have to be. But does that have any impact on the slab/gem premium going forward if lots of newcomers are immediately turned off to the whole idea of it in the first place.

[MegaMan]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

In general though, I’ll freely admit I’m not the best person to be talking about “the current state of the hobby market” since I’m just a Marlins fan who mainly buy Jazz Chisholm cards. I don’t concern myself much with future values. I just like cards in gem mint condition to satiate my OCD.

Huge Jazz fan (and minor collector) myself, he's a lot of fun.

[SleepyWill]

Last few years seeing massive product releases and print runs, consumers can't really assume that a majority of cards will retain any significant value long term.

Obviously, certain cards will continue to gain due to scarcity (Sapphire, BC Auto's, SSP's) but overall folks these days are grading anything and everything.

What it boils down to is collect the card & not the grade. I've purchased more 7/8/9 in the past year than anything else.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by MegaMan

Totally off the cuff, and I should've been more specific so as not to imply I meant the market as a whole is only working for 5%. I just meant with grading fees at PSA and BGS still being $50/card and up (last I checked), I suspect that's not affordable for lots of people - which is fine, doesn't have to be. But does that have any impact on the slab/gem premium going forward if lots of newcomers are immediately turned off to the whole idea of it in the first place.

Ah, okay. I gotcha now.

[MegaMan]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

In general though, I’ll freely admit I’m not the best person to be talking about “the current state of the hobby market” since I’m just a Marlins fan who mainly buy Jazz Chisholm cards. I don’t concern myself much with future values. I just like cards in gem mint condition to satiate my OCD.

I'll also add that my situational desire for graded gems is also surely OCD related. And this goes to the Registry issue as well. E.g., I'm trying to complete a Ripken PC of every 1981-1992 Ripken in PSA 10 (or best available). For these older cards, the condition (and admittedly, the assigned grade from PSA) matters to me.

But if I was trying to collect the Jazz Chrome RC rainbow, I could see (at least in theory) being satisfied with identically slabbed (and largely "gem-looking") copies that all looked really nice to the eye. And if I could get them done at $5 or 10 each, then it becomes even more attractive.

[notoriousrmb]

Originally Posted by mfw13

To start with, people are going to start to realize that in many cases, having a card slabbed may actually REDUCE its appeal and value. Reason #1 for this is the fact that many collectors still prefer raw cards, especially for sets & insert sets that are best enjoyed in sheets in binders. Reason #2 is that many of the people who collect slabbed cards have a strong preference for a specific company. So having a card slabbed by companies A, B, or C may reduce its appeal to fans of company D.

Underrated take.

I PC certain players/sets and will purposely avoid graded copies as they 1) Don't easily fit with my storage space and 2) are inflated to unreasonable prices I don't wish to pay to PC a player.

Also, for cards that I do collect graded, if its not the company I want, I pass.

Still a big market for raw out there.

[MegaMan]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

Also, for cards that I do collect graded, if its not the company I want, I pass.

Still a big market for raw out there.

Agreed x2. Also makes me wonder who the Wander Franco of grading card company "prospects" is right now...

[SleepyWill]

Originally Posted by MegaMan

Agreed x2. Also makes me wonder who the Wander Franco of grading card company "prospects" is right now...

Price wise, I would have to say SGC would fit that description. They made a significant jump this past year and I'm starting to see more and more of their slabs at shows and my LCS.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Grading is it’s own, separate “hobby”.

[YayNJ]

lol @ grading 99.9% of Heritage cards

[Anish]

Most of my cards are slabbed, but I’m sick of grading. Too expensive, too inconsistent. Don’t plan to grade pc stuff anymore