New Bowman Chrome prospect autos are cratering. What will follow?

[Boredlawyer]

2022 Bowman Chrome prices are tanking to the point that I think there are potential deals. However, to what extent is this trying to catch a falling knife in a bear market?

Some base chrome auto prices that are shocking to me less than a month after release:

Cristian Vaquero - frequently selling below $100 for a base chrome auto. Was the consensus #1/#2 signing in the class

Roderick Arias -- under $120 for the Yankee that was considered #1/#2 in the class

Anthony Gutierrez #6, with an impressive debut. High ceiling bat--under $50 for chrome autos

Samuel Munoz #7 prospect in the class, had a stellar debut, and is only commanding ~$40 per chrome auto, despite being on the Dodgers

Simon Juan -- unimpressive debut, but a Top 20 international signing on a popular team, with an impressive blend of tools. Under $25.

Mason Auer -- would appear to be a high ceiling center field prospect, on pace to be 22 in AA, with power and speed combo. $30 for a chrome auto?

I deliberately excluded any sort of scouting or batted ball data--for instance, I don't think Gutierrez is as good as his line, or Arias as bad as his batted ball data. But a small sample size in a DSL/complex during the debut year would not historically drastically alter prices, regardless.

For comparison (and from memory):

Luis Rodriguez - top 5 int'l prospect on the Dodgers with unimpressive debut - $250. Cristhian Hernandez was #6 to the Cubs, and settled around $250. More than double any 2022 prospect except Chourio.

Pedro Pineda settled at $40-45 for base chrome autos despite being the #13 overall prospect, a middling debut, and on a relatively unpopular team.

Victor Acosta - #19 prospect, solid DSL debut-- went for close to $80 per base chrome auto.

Cristian Santana - a guy compared to Placido Polanco, was $55-60 as the #14 ranked int'l prospect with the Tigers.

Essentially any prospect that was considered a top 20 signing in 2021 was $40+ for a sustained period of time (Bleis, Peguero, Cappe, Pedro Leon).

Moving back a year to 2020. Puason was ~$200 out of the gate as a prospect viewed in the same range as Vaquero. Erick Pena cost the same as 2022 Roderick Arias, despite having less hype and being on the Royals. Bayron Lora was $200+ at release.

In 2021, Vaquero would have been $250+ at release, Arias would easily have been $350. Someone like Simon Juan would have been viewed more like Pineda and sold for twice as much.

There wasn't a prospect anywhere near Chourio's production in the past Bowman Chrome cycles, but he's trading at sub-Wander Franco 2019 level prices for a guy who was a relatively similar level prospect.

So, underlying interest in the prospects has eroded to the point that a top international chrome auto is $100 (Vaquero) instead of $250 (Cristhian Hernandez), yet box prices continue to rise. The concept of dozens of people sharing the cost in team breaks to mask the overall inflated prices has been discussed ad nauseum, so I won't dive into it.

We are closing in on pre-Covid 2019 chrome prices-when a high ceiling 1st round bat was available for under $80, and a moderately interesting prospect like Alek Thomas, was available for under $30.

If you're confident in your player selections, and you believe the Roderick Arias hype, are you buying every single chrome auto that hits the market at current prices, knowing they would have cost 2.5x more last season? Or has the macro-level completely eroded support and driven you out of the game? Because it takes a LOT of people staying on the sidelines to see this type of price reduction across the board. If you're holding wax, wouldn't the smart decision be to dump it as quickly as possible?

[LVDan]

Healthy and if it holds through spring it may help reset all that ridiculous bs
The last couple years these guys all had MLB MVPs baked into their A ball prices.


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[LCM1223]

They were way too inflated to begin with

People starting to come to their senses

[stormshadow815]

So basically back to what things use to be, only TOP dogs reached $100+ base autos pre MLB.

[cardsin47]

They’ve been over the past 2 Years, very pricey relative to their very high risk. Hopefully this segment is having a much needed price correction, without further dragging down everything around it

[Doublexthebeast]

Originally Posted by stormshadow815

So basically back to what things use to be, only TOP dogs reached $100+ base autos pre MLB.

That is pretty much what I was thinking. Get back to some sort of normality in terms of the top guys prices. For years it was right at $100 for the top guys but the jumbo case prices were $800-1200 then. If the prices on the secondary market are way down from 2020-present then the wax prices need to follow.

[jbyanks1]

I think there are some good buys. Prices may go down further when Draft comes out.

[hermanotarjeta]

Many people need to flip cards immediately for cash, they don't have the time to wait 2-3 years for players to ascend BA top 100 or get called up.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

They’re still too expensive. Way too much risk involved. Back in 2018 I was able to get an Austin Riley base 1st Bowman auto for $40. He was Atlanta’s #1 prospect at the time. The card was in gem mint condition too.

[jduds]

Sounds good to me. Now to wait for wax prices to catch up to the drop in the singles market.

[JWBlue]

What are the prints /25 selling for compared to the last few years?

[JoeAdam]

This is where they should be. I was buying Michael Harris color autos for less than $50. But for every Michael Harris I hit I had 5x guys who flopped.

[theshowandme]

All these dudes suck and couldn’t hit their weight in Dominican summer ball

[Newgenre]

Agreed on all points but Bleis wasnt on anyone's radar until this past season, wasnt commanding even half of what he does now

[VandyCards]

I pulled and sold a Moniak base auto in December 2016. It sold for $110. Disregarding hindsight, is that about right for a 1-1 guy?


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[DaryanLenz]

You know, I was thinking prospecting was on its way down since the risk premium people are applying to essentially options contracts is far greater/lower depending on how you assess markets then I see $3600 bid on 10 cases of Jackson Holiday Bowman Draft and my jaw dropped. That’s $36000 over 10 cases and I wouldn’t pay half of that for the super and I’m an O’s fan with plenty of expendable income.

[lauriontj]

Everything that is not Topps Flagship and Chrome will start to crater. Sorry, but way to many parallels and short prints in this hobby. The only ones I want are from Flagship/Chrome. Nothing else matters. Sapphire? Nope. Heritage? Nope. Logofractor? Nope. It’s all trash.

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by lauriontj

Everything that is not Topps Flagship and Chrome will start to crater. Sorry, but way to many parallels and short prints in this hobby. The only ones I want are from Flagship/Chrome. Nothing else matters. Sapphire? Nope. Heritage? Nope. Logofractor? Nope. It’s all trash.

Parallel exhaustion is very real in our hobby

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by LVDan

Healthy and if it holds through spring it may help reset all that ridiculous bs
The last couple years these guys all had MLB MVPs baked into their A ball prices.

This. Furthermore values are probably still too high now anyway.

As Topps releases more and more RC autos - and especially vet autos - into the myriad of flagship/TC products than ever before, it’s reasonable to think pre-RC autos will become increasingly less interesting and even more niche.

Plus flippers always burden themselves with the extra cost of grading, so the upfront costs are even higher when buying this stuff than just buying the cards themselves.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by LCM1223

They were way too inflated to begin with

People starting to come to their senses

Start looking for the old playas and bois to start inflating everything again in 12-18 months, most haven’t left.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by lauriontj

Everything that is not Topps Flagship and Chrome will start to crater. Sorry, but way to many parallels and short prints in this hobby. The only ones I want are from Flagship/Chrome. Nothing else matters. Sapphire? Nope. Heritage? Nope. Logofractor? Nope. It’s all trash.

It’s all fun to collect. Valuable? No. But it can still be enjoyable.

[lauriontj]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

It’s all fun to collect. Valuable? No. But it can still be enjoyable.

Except we’re not talking about collecting. We’re talking about value. Value will only hold in True Flagship/Chrome/Update. That’s it. Collect all the other stuff for the sake of collecting. But Flagship/Chrome/Update will hold the top spot for the most desired cards long term.

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by VandyCards

I pulled and sold a Moniak base auto in December 2016. It sold for $110. Disregarding hindsight, is that about right for a 1-1 guy?


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Justin Upton settled a few weeks after release in the $90-$120 range, after the first few popping at $250ish in 2006, so yeah, probably good.

[imbluestreak23]

I'd like to see the days of

$30 Jesus Montero
$30-$40 Mike (Giancarlo) Stanton
$20 Wiler Flores
$40-$50 Angel Villalona
$40 Oscar Tavares
$40-$50 Mookie Betts
$35-$45 Juan Soto
Oh...and
$10-$20 Mike Trout, getting outsold by Randal Grichuk

Take me back please

[lauriontj]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

I'd like to see the days of

$30 Jesus Montero
$30-$40 Mike (Giancarlo) Stanton
$20 Wiler Flores
$40-$50 Angel Villalona
$40 Oscar Tavares
$40-$50 Mookie Betts
$35-$45 Juan Soto
Oh...and
$10-$20 Mike Trout, getting outsold by Randal Grichuk

Take me back please

Those were the good days. We’ll get back there eventually. We need a good washout.