Impact of Transfers on Value

Meets1 · 12-28-2022, 11:27 AM

Now that the transfer window is almost upon us, thought it would be interesting to have a discussion around the impact of transfers on card values. Do you see it as a large impact? Do collectors of teams seek out cards of their incoming transfers? Or just those hoping to capitalize on a bump from a smaller club to a 'name' club? Which teams' incoming transfers would you normally expect to see the largest increase in value when the transfer occurs? Mostly EPL teams? Barca? Madrid? Bayern?

YayNJ · 12-28-2022, 11:56 AM

Cards are so inflated as is, I don't think it makes much difference anymore.

Rookies all have success priced in, even the ultra-turd ones.

yiguiri2002 · 12-28-2022, 01:05 PM

I think there's a different type of impact related to the transfer, at least on the short term.

Using only "big" clubs, Real and Barza should have a bigger impact. Simply because Topps and Panini and printing the hell out of EPL and Bundesliga and the amount of cards a player will have in the next few years on those leagues will be insane.

That's assuming that the player in question has a rookie card from their previous team too.

kingb22 · 12-28-2022, 11:02 PM

If you look at a guy like Vlahovic last year, it mattered a lot. His prices were sky high prior to the Juventus move and the combo of not going to a club on TV often plus their terrible offense has trashed his cards

Skattered888 · 12-29-2022, 06:43 AM

Gakpo prices are insane atm. Ppl are asking $800 for base /99 NT. Im sure it will go down once transfer hype settles. Unless he hits the ground running

mfw13 · 12-29-2022, 04:21 PM

Minimal.

The thing to watch out for is young players moving from smaller/less famous clubs where they are regular starters, to bigger/more famous clubs where they will have to fight for playing time.

Quite a few promising careers have stagnated at clubs like Chelsea, Man United, Barcelona, etc. who have unstable management situations and tend to buy "hot" players without much of a plan for how to use them effectively.

Some clubs buy "smart"....some clubs throw money around on the latest shiny bauble....

jmcca170 · 12-30-2022, 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skattered888

Gakpo prices are insane atm. Ppl are asking $800 for base /99 NT. Im sure it will go down once transfer hype settles. Unless he hits the ground running

Feels like that has more to do with World Cup than him going to Liverpool

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YayNJ · 12-30-2022, 10:47 AM

Yeah it's his performance at the WC.

I personally think he will struggle, at least at first in the Premier League.

Patrick Hamill · 01-17-2023, 05:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Meets1

Now that the transfer window is almost upon us, thought it would be interesting to have a discussion around the impact of transfers on card values. Do you see it as a large impact? Do collectors of teams seek out cards of their incoming transfers? Or just those hoping to capitalize on a bump from a smaller club to a 'name' club? Which teams' incoming transfers would you normally expect to see the largest increase in value when the transfer occurs? Mostly EPL teams? Barca? Madrid? Bayern?

From a personal perspective, yes, I definitely chase cards of players transferring into the team I support, and suspect that many other football fans do the same. Sellers on ebay and the like clearly try to cash in on transfers with new listings mentioning the club the player is moving to. This can increase the price of a cheap card by a few dollars, but I don't think its something people are making a fortune from. For those cheaper cards for an average player that may be highest in value their cards go.

YayNJ · 01-17-2023, 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YayNJ

Yeah it's his performance at the WC.

I personally think he will struggle, at least at first in the Premier League.

.. and he's struggling.

looked utterly awful so far.

mikee1186 · 01-17-2023, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YayNJ

.. and he's struggling.

looked utterly awful so far.

In exactly 1 league game in a struggling team in a tough away game.

YayNJ · 01-17-2023, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikee1186

In exactly 1 league game in a struggling team in a tough away game.

He will be starting his third game for Liverpool tonight most likely.

Never thought I'd live to see the day that Brighton got described as a "tough away day" by a Liverpool stan.

mikee1186 · 01-17-2023, 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YayNJ

Never thought I'd live to see the day that Brighton got described as a "tough away day" by a Liverpool stan.

me neither! But here we are.

Brighton have been quite good this season to be fair! Organized, sharp, confident. Of course, LFC made them look even better with that craptastic performance.

kingb22 · 01-17-2023, 01:30 PM

To throw out some names of guys who's cards would see a big jump with the right transfer , I'd start with Victor.Osimhen, Christopher Nkunku, Moussa Diaby. I think they could all see a big bump like Tchouameni this year - fantastic players out of the limelight. The latter two only have a short window to move and a confusing RC situation (to my knowledge no traditional sets with a RC designation - most would say 20-21 Topps Chrome Bundy for both). Oh and Wout Weghorst if he becomes a Man U cult hero - his autos.might go to $10!

YayNJ · 01-17-2023, 01:44 PM

Averagely numbered Osimhen rookies with a decent grade are already going for $400-500. That's already incredibly high.

Chronicles, Merlin and Mosaic were all printed in massive numbers too, so they aren't really that hard to get hold of either.

yiguiri2002 · 01-17-2023, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YayNJ

Averagely numbered Osimhen rookies with a decent grade are already going for $400-500. That's already incredibly high.

Chronicles, Merlin and Mosaic were all printed in massive numbers too, so they aren't really that hard to get hold of either.

Mosaic wasn't. Just about 1000 cases of Hobby and 500 of Tmall.

YayNJ · 01-17-2023, 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

Mosaic wasn't. Just about 1000 cases of Hobby and 500 of Tmall.

they still aren't rare by any stretch of the imagination with parallels in the base product, choice and tmall (and a skip load of base) on top of the mountains of chronicles with 15 parallels, and merlin with it's 17 different base parallels.

yiguiri2002 · 01-17-2023, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YayNJ

they still aren't rare by any stretch of the imagination with parallels in the base product, choice and tmall (and a skip load of base) on top of the mountains of chronicles with 15 parallels, and merlin with it's 17 different base parallels.

That one only had Tmall (no Choice). Even base was kinda limited, around 14-15 per case which means around 15k base.

Chronicles was a different story and Merlin was even worst. What helps Chronicles is that at least the checklist is so massive it wasn't that easy to hit and Osimhen. Merlin was printed so much a refractor is cheaper than an Optic base from Chronicles.

kingb22 · 01-17-2023, 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

That one only had Tmall (no Choice). Even base was kinda limited, around 14-15 per case which means around 15k base.

I had opened a bunch of Mosaic Serie A last year and by the math of the parallels, I got about 500 cases total... so ~ 6000 base per player. (It was almost perfectly 1 complete set per case - like 1.09 base per box per player). 0 base in Tmall if I remember correctly. So not exactly 2020 Bowman, but pretty low by modern standards.

yiguiri2002 · 01-17-2023, 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingb22

I had opened a bunch of Mosaic Serie A last year and by the math of the parallels, I got about 500 cases total... so ~ 6000 base per player. (It was almost perfectly 1 complete set per case - like 1.09 base per box per player). 0 base in Tmall if I remember correctly. So not exactly 2020 Bowman, but pretty low by modern standards.

I don't remember if there were 2 or 3 numbered per box, I do remember it was less than 1000 cases. Regardless, every parallel in the set is SP and even the base has a low print run.

YayNJ · 01-17-2023, 09:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

every parallel in the set is SP

a set with parallels running to /599 still means the /599 is "SP" as long as there's less than there is base.

kingb22 · 01-18-2023, 02:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I don't remember if there were 2 or 3 numbered per box, I do remember it was less than 1000 cases. Regardless, every parallel in the set is SP and even the base has a low print run.

3 per box, all /99 or lower

12-28-2022, 11:27 AM	#1
Meets1 Member Join Date: Jul 2020 Location: Charlotte, NC Posts: 194 meets2	Impact of Transfers on Value Now that the transfer window is almost upon us, thought it would be interesting to have a discussion around the impact of transfers on card values. Do you see it as a large impact? Do collectors of teams seek out cards of their incoming transfers? Or just those hoping to capitalize on a bump from a smaller club to a 'name' club? Which teams' incoming transfers would you normally expect to see the largest increase in value when the transfer occurs? Mostly EPL teams? Barca? Madrid? Bayern?

12-28-2022, 01:05 PM	#3
yiguiri2002 Member Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: Torrance, CA Posts: 12,507 afigueroaquevedo2002 yiguiri2002	I think there's a different type of impact related to the transfer, at least on the short term. Using only "big" clubs, Real and Barza should have a bigger impact. Simply because Topps and Panini and printing the hell out of EPL and Bundesliga and the amount of cards a player will have in the next few years on those leagues will be insane. That's assuming that the player in question has a rookie card from their previous team too. __________________ Basketball Sets: Threads Century Greats Jerseys - Innovation Stat Line Jerseys Soccer Sets: 2018 World Cup Prizm Peru Parallels - 2015 Select Soccer Peru Parallels Players: Red Bulls Parallels, 17-18 Thibs Prizms, Soccer Legends Autos

12-28-2022, 11:56 AM	#2
YayNJ Member Join Date: May 2020 Location: London / Oahu Posts: 8,350 hanelcocards	Cards are so inflated as is, I don't think it makes much difference anymore. Rookies all have success priced in, even the ultra-turd ones.

12-28-2022, 11:02 PM	#4
kingb22 Member Join Date: Jul 2021 Location: Chapel Hill, NC Posts: 1,037	If you look at a guy like Vlahovic last year, it mattered a lot. His prices were sky high prior to the Juventus move and the combo of not going to a club on TV often plus their terrible offense has trashed his cards

12-29-2022, 06:43 AM	#5
Skattered888 Member Join Date: Jul 2014 Location: Australia Posts: 186 originscare_au	Gakpo prices are insane atm. Ppl are asking $800 for base /99 NT. Im sure it will go down once transfer hype settles. Unless he hits the ground running

12-29-2022, 04:21 PM	#6
mfw13 Member Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Seattle, WA Posts: 17,537	Minimal. The thing to watch out for is young players moving from smaller/less famous clubs where they are regular starters, to bigger/more famous clubs where they will have to fight for playing time. Quite a few promising careers have stagnated at clubs like Chelsea, Man United, Barcelona, etc. who have unstable management situations and tend to buy "hot" players without much of a plan for how to use them effectively. Some clubs buy "smart"....some clubs throw money around on the latest shiny bauble....

12-30-2022, 10:47 AM	#8
YayNJ Member Join Date: May 2020 Location: London / Oahu Posts: 8,350 hanelcocards	Yeah it's his performance at the WC. I personally think he will struggle, at least at first in the Premier League.

01-17-2023, 01:30 PM	#14
kingb22 Member Join Date: Jul 2021 Location: Chapel Hill, NC Posts: 1,037	To throw out some names of guys who's cards would see a big jump with the right transfer , I'd start with Victor.Osimhen, Christopher Nkunku, Moussa Diaby. I think they could all see a big bump like Tchouameni this year - fantastic players out of the limelight. The latter two only have a short window to move and a confusing RC situation (to my knowledge no traditional sets with a RC designation - most would say 20-21 Topps Chrome Bundy for both). Oh and Wout Weghorst if he becomes a Man U cult hero - his autos.might go to $10!

01-17-2023, 01:44 PM	#15
YayNJ Member Join Date: May 2020 Location: London / Oahu Posts: 8,350 hanelcocards	Averagely numbered Osimhen rookies with a decent grade are already going for $400-500. That's already incredibly high. Chronicles, Merlin and Mosaic were all printed in massive numbers too, so they aren't really that hard to get hold of either.