2023 NBA Playoffs thread

[GOATcards]

Joker better get his act together in the Murray-not-being-injured for the playoffs dept., much less in the have-Bubble-Murray ( = Mile High Murray?)-as-teammate dept.

So the Freak is the NBA Finals MVP Front-Runner, and that's on the off-chance that the god doesn't make it through enough of the playoffs healthy enough to so much as land in the finals much less be hypothetically healthy enough to last all the way through to a Finals MVP finish. So if I'm correct this guy who eerily resembles this guy but not exactly but this guy from the State Farm ad is in 3rd place in the Finals-MVP-Front-runners-if-the-god-is-healthy competition?

When it comes down to process of elimination, strength and health-wise, we give even a hypothetically healthy Clippers team only so much of a chance against a hypothetically healthy Suns team?

So the most rational and objective way to formulate expectations is by probabilities who (a) is the strongest team (SRS or Elo-wise if we're going by statistical proxies) and (b) has X chance to be hypothetically healthy and rather consistently so throughout the playoffs. A Suns team that lands without a healthy KD leading up to the Finals has just as much of a chance of winning the ring as a Suns team getting there with a healthy KD, ya dig? It all depends on the god's health and at what crucial point in the playoffs? A healthy god all the way through the Finals and therefore probable Finals MVP frontrunner in that hypothetical instance is, . . . well, is he really as/more formidable than the Freak (the hypothetically healthy/available version that is)? KD had a toe on the line the last time around with his other team's stars injured. Only cp3 has a playoff health history, so you can only hypothetically assume he's down one star this time around. god vs. Freak, otherwise god vs. "Jake," or Freak vs. hypothetically healthy Lakers, or Freak vs. the hypothetically loaded Warriors, or Beard/Process hypothetically choking against the god, or "Jake" vs. the hypothetically healthy Lakerz, or . . .

subjective probabilities of Finals MVP front-runners:

Yannis: 30%
"Jake": 21%
the god: 20%
Joker w/bubblicious murray: 12%
other/andrew wiggins: ?
process: 8%
glass: 0.1%
klaw: 0.05%
spida: 0.008%

[ninjacookies]

Permission to substitute 'Audacious Alpaca' for Bubblicious Murray, cap.

[ballhawkdawk]

Finals MVP favorite should be Giannis. But we have a ways to go before worrying about that. I'm not liking the three seed as a Sixers fan. Looking at likely round 2 against Boston and round 3 against Milwaukee matchups with those teams having homecourt. Gonna be tough. The final four in the East should be really fun. The West looks wide open outside of maybe the teams that get in from the play-in.

Forced to pick, I think we see a repeat match of the 2021 Finals... Milwaukee vs. Phoenix. I'm going Bucks to win it all, but I think maybe eight teams have a realistic enough shot. Gonna be a fun playoffs.

[Bosoxfan5990]

Why are we talking about the Bucks as the favorite in the East when the Celtics have looked miles better than them H2H, including at Milwaukee?

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Permission to substitute 'Audacious Alpaca' for Bubblicious Murray, cap.

Team Alpaca forever.

I'll allow Bubbly Alpaca though. Your call.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

Why are we talking about the Bucks as the favorite in the East when the Celtics have looked miles better than them H2H, including at Milwaukee?

Probably going to be a Warriors-Celtics match-up again.

[daeve]

posted a while ago and since it hasn't changed, and playoffs are finally here, worth re-posting:

No team has ever won a championship with a record below .500 against .500 and above teams. There are 6 teams in the NBA who meet this criteria: Bucks, Celtics, 76ers, Nuggets, Grizzlies and Timberwolves.

^here are your actual contenders

[ballhawkdawk]

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

Why are we talking about the Bucks as the favorite in the East when the Celtics have looked miles better than them H2H, including at Milwaukee?

Home court throughout, and the Celtics have the tougher second round matchup.

[ballhawkdawk]

Originally Posted by daeve

posted a while ago and since it hasn't changed, and playoffs are finally here, worth re-posting:



^here are your actual contenders

I think at a minimum you have to throw the Suns in the mix. The “never in NBA history” changes a bit given the popularity of load management in the regular season. Maybe the Clippers find a way to contend or the Warriors get fully healthy and pull it together.

[jcardstore]

The Wolves are not even close to contenders and I don't believe in the Grizzlies either.

You have to include the Suns as contenders because we know what KD is. I think the Lakers are contenders because they actually have a really solid squad now.

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by ballhawkdawk

Home court throughout, and the Celtics have the tougher second round matchup.

Philly, the team they always smash in the playoffs?

[Dame]

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

Why are we talking about the Bucks as the favorite in the East when the Celtics have looked miles better than them H2H, including at Milwaukee?

They don't put too much stock or emphasis on mid season games. Middleton's absence in the series last year raises questions over the Celtics ability beat the Bucks in playoff series. Given the same opportunity, Milwaukee has shown they can finish the job while the Celtics came short.


MIL do have an exploitable weakness that could undo them but considering their depth is too close and assuming both teams have their key guys intact in the postseason, I can't pick a team lead by Tatum over Giannis.

It's an early playoff hot take from me, but I have the Bucks winning the title with the Lakers as my darkhorse pick.

[Dame]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

The Wolves are not even close to contenders and I don't believe in the Grizzlies either.

You have to include the Suns as contenders because we know what KD is. I think the Lakers are contenders because they actually have a really solid squad now.

Wolves even before the Naz injury was never a contender. Grizzlies was there but I thought Ja's shenanigans derailed their chances this year. There's just too much distractions in their season.


Suns are definitely there by default because of KD though I also see them with an early exit depending on the matchup. Historically, huge mid-season acquisitions like this never works out.


Lakers ranked have created an impressive defensive identity since the trade so now the biggest question mark for them is health, per par. AD and DLO are day to day magnets.


West is truly wide open but the East is more of a sure thing, IMO.

[daeve]

One thing nobody is mentioning is that Lebron has not had the 'energy' to play defense over the last year+... the Lakers winning has coincided with a big rise up the defensive ladder, and if old man Bron is going to be playing 35+ mpg in the playoffs, we don't exactly know how the defense is going to look.

Also if D'Lo is still out then once again their spacing looks bad/awful depending on who else is out there. At least AD has brought his 3p% back up from "atrocious/disgusting" last year to merely "horrible" this year, right?

[daeve]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

The Wolves are not even close to contenders and I don't believe in the Grizzlies either.

You have to include the Suns as contenders because we know what KD is. I think the Lakers are contenders because they actually have a really solid squad now.

we do, an all-time ISO scorer who still has not won a damn thing aside from joining Daddy Steph's 73-win all-time team.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by daeve

One thing nobody is mentioning is that Lebron has not had the 'energy' to play defense over the last year+... the Lakers winning has coincided with a big rise up the defensive ladder, and if old man Bron is going to be playing 35+ mpg in the playoffs, we don't exactly know how the defense is going to look.

Also if D'Lo is still out then once again their spacing looks bad/awful depending on who else is out there. At least AD has brought his 3p% back up from "atrocious/disgusting" last year to merely "horrible" this year, right?

Vanderbilt and AD are both elite, versatile, and switchable defenders. They cover up for whatever Bron is lacking. Troy Brown is a really solid defender...

DLo needs to be fully healthy for the Lakers to make a run but they have a really well put together squad around LeBron and AD now

[DiamondDonovan]

Looking like a Warriors/Suns 1st round match up!

Tonight's Lakers/Clippers game will be a good one too. I think Lakers will eventually end up as 6th seed.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Vanderbilt and AD are both elite, versatile, and switchable defenders. They cover up for whatever Bron is lacking. Troy Brown is a really solid defender...

DLo needs to be fully healthy for the Lakers to make a run but they have a really well put together squad around LeBron and AD now

I agree... but then that means you have AD, Vandy, and Bron as 3 of your 5 shooters on the floor. If you guessed Vandy as the best 3P shooter of the bunch this year, you win a prize.

[Dame]

The Lakers don’t rely on 3 point shooting. Their percentages did not have a drastic effect after the trades. They lead the league in FTA for a reason. They attack and they have some players that can draw fouls at an elite level.

Their defense is their identity.

[daeve]

But idk, I guess if that 2-point OT victory over the Kelly Olynyk-led C-squad Jazz last night inspired a bunch of confidence in this Lakers team, then by all means.

[YeahBuddy]

Originally Posted by daeve

we do, an all-time ISO scorer who still has not won a damn thing aside from joining Daddy Steph's 73-win all-time team.

But KD still proved to be the best player on their team and take home the final mvps.

Until the last championship Steph did not ever stand out on his playoff performances when compared with his teammates. But with it being a team game, nothing wrong with all equally contributing.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by daeve

I agree... but then that means you have AD, Vandy, and Bron as 3 of your 5 shooters on the floor. If you guessed Vandy as the best 3P shooter of the bunch this year, you win a prize.

Those 3 are +18.2 with a 123.7 offensive rating when on the floor together, I think their offense is just fine.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by Dame

The Lakers don’t rely on 3 point shooting. Their percentages did not have a drastic effect after the trades. They lead the league in FTA for a reason. They attack and they have some players that can draw fouls at an elite level.

Their defense is their identity.

Don't I know it

[daeve]

Originally Posted by YeahBuddy

But KD still proved to be the best player on their team and take home the final mvps.

Until the last championship Steph did not ever stand out on his playoff performances when compared with his teammates. But with it being a team game, nothing wrong with all equally contributing.

It is so wild that a 73-win team didn't even get their best player until the next season.

[Dame]

We’ll save that for another thread @daeve^ But if they can continue to draw fouls at this rate, the 3 point concern is minimal.