How much money did investors lose on Cody Bellinger?

[PokeyAndG]

I remember his stuff were selling at astronomical prices several years ago, at the peak of the market too.

[towerymt]

All of it.

[Jolten Joe]

Better question is why were people investing in Bellinger after 1 good season in which even he said he was surprised.

[awz50]

Way to much

[fabiani12333]

That's a very interesting question, but impossible to quantify, obviously. He was pumped pretty hard on this forum.

You might be able to use the change in price of his most noteworthy cards as a proxy. For example, his 2017 TCU refractor RC in PSA 10 condition alledgedly sold at auction on eBay for $949 in early 2021 -- after he won the World Series MVP. A different version of the same card in the same condition went unsold at $39.99 via auction.

[Soxrule111]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

That's a very interesting question, but impossible to quantify, obviously. He was pumped pretty hard on this forum.

You might be able to use the change in price of his most noteworthy cards as a proxy. For example, his 2017 TCU refractor RC in PSA 10 condition alledgedly sold at auction on eBay for $949 in early 2021 -- after he won the World Series MVP. A different version of the same card in the same condition went unsold at $39.99 via auction.

Why not just compare Bowman Chrome Autos?

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

That's a very interesting question, but impossible to quantify, obviously. He was pumped pretty hard on this forum.

You might be able to use the change in price of his most noteworthy cards as a proxy. For example, his 2017 TCU refractor RC in PSA 10 condition alledgedly sold at auction on eBay for $949 in early 2021 -- after he won the World Series MVP. A different version of the same card in the same condition went unsold at $39.99 via auction.

World Series MVP? Which World Series was that? Did you mean NL MVP?

[crpav]

It’s not just Bellinger though. Look at any prospect or player that is hyped or has a good season or hot streak. It’s what happens when “investing” and greed overtake the hobby and makes it thus way for everyone. Drives up prices and this happens and hurts collectors as they have to pay the higher price to get what they collect.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Jolten Joe

Better question is why were people investing in Bellinger after 1 good season in which even he said he was surprised.

He had an even better hitting season in his 3rd year:

2017: .933 OPS, 39 HR
2019: 1.035 OPS, 47 HR!

All in all, his first 3 seasons at ages 21 through 23 were great:
.928 OPS, 111 HR, 15.2 fWAR

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

World Series MVP? Which World Series was that? Did you mean NL MVP?

Oops, I thought he won the World Series MVP. But it was Corey Seager.

[towerymt]

Originally Posted by Jolten Joe

Better question is why were people investing in Bellinger after 1 good season in which even he said he was surprised.

39hr, .933 OPS, 138wrc+ as a 21yr old rookie.

Decent year as a 22yr old, 25hr, .814 OPS, 120wrc+. And played 162 games.

Then the monster year, 47hr, 1.035 OPS, 161wrc+. MVP. Cut his K-rate by a HUGE amount (26.6 to 23.9 to 16.4) and upped his walk rate.

This is everything you could want from a young player. Dodgers. Big power. Now plate discipline, too? And an MVP?!

Of course people were all in. This wasnt one good year. This was a three year progression.

[Cards and 401K]

Nothing, no loss until sold have about 30 graded refractors X-fractors rainbows RC's maybe invested total cards/grading around $750.
Made that back selling 1 Derek Jeter card a couple years ago. Not sure how long or if a player comes back from that type of shoulder issue. turns 28 in July. I would think playing in Chitown at Wrigley 30 hr would not be out of the question.
He knows with a 1 year contract he is playing for a longer term contract with a contender next year should be good incentive to excel we will see.

[Giancarlo27]

During his rookie season I sold his 2016 Bowman Chrome non-first Orange refractor for like $900. Crazy times

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. You don’t see early Judge investors complaining.

[bmann33]

Originally Posted by towerymt

All of it.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[LVDan]

A drop in the bucket compared w/ what the long term Soto investors who bought in 2020 stand to lose if his counting stats don't pick back up considerably. Or if his age is bunk.
Or if Ronnie were to rip up his knee again. Or if Tatis were to fail another test or two.
Luckily for Bellyvestors his cards didn't soar to the incredible highs at the peak of the pandemic market that the young hobby darlings did. Multiple hundreds is one thing. Tens of thousands is on a whole other level. The percentages may be staggering but the real dollars lost pale in comparison to the risk being taken on the others IMO

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by LVDan

A drop in the bucket compared w/ what the long term Soto investors who bought in 2020 stand to lose if his counting stats don't pick back up considerably. Or if his age is bunk.
Or if Ronnie were to rip up his knee again. Or if Tatis were to fail another test or two.
Luckily for Bellyvestors his cards didn't soar to the incredible highs at the peak of the pandemic market that the young hobby darlings did. Multiple hundreds is one thing. Tens of thousands is on a whole other level. The percentages may be staggering but the real dollars lost pale in comparison to the risk being taken on the others IMO

^ 100% truth right there.

I will say this though: If you bought into Soto at peak prices, you’ve definitely taken a hit… BUT at least you have cool cards of a player who is currently on a HOF track, and almost a lock for the HoVG. So while Soto investors are hurting, Soto collectors are still having fun. For Bellinger, everyone is hurting.

[anusinha]

Not as much as Luka or Zion investors. Or almost anything Basketball related

[Doublexthebeast]

About the same as Tatis collectors/investors

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by anusinha

Not as much as Luka or Zion investors. Or almost anything Basketball related

Depends when you got in on those guys.

I bought some Luka PSA 10 Prizm RCs for $100 each during his sophomore year. Sold some as they ran up to $1800 and then sold some as they've come down to $300.

Obviously wish I sold them all at the peak, but it's been a pretty good endeavor. And even if I sold the remaining few I have at $300, I'd still be ok.

[WaxPax]

Everyone will claim to have sold off everything and made huge gains before the downward trend...We all know nobody loses money prospecting...

[Lonewolf]

I lost nothing. I collected him as a Dodger fan, and will keep his stuff in the PC forever. As for "investors"..screw em.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Soxrule111

Why not just compare Bowman Chrome Autos?

The historical sales data is sketchy, but PWCC just sold a couple of quad 9.5 BGS for $126 and $105. Other versions sold for $66 in 2016, $475 in mid 2017, $384 in early 2018, $595 in late 2019 after his peak hitting season, and $1,100 in early 2020, which seemed to be the peak price.

So, if you bought in 2016, you might be okay right now. If you bought in 2017 or later, you're varying degrees of screwed.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Cards and 401K

Nothing, no loss until sold have about 30 graded refractors X-fractors rainbows RC's maybe invested total cards/grading around $750.
Made that back selling 1 Derek Jeter card a couple years ago. Not sure how long or if a player comes back from that type of shoulder issue. turns 28 in July. I would think playing in Chitown at Wrigley 30 hr would not be out of the question.
He knows with a 1 year contract he is playing for a longer term contract with a contender next year should be good incentive to excel we will see.

Are you going to hold onto his cards in perpetuity? He only has 2 HRs so far this season and hasn't hit more than 20 in a season since 2019. I don't know why 30 HRs would magically boost the value of his cards.

You should have just liquidated and put the money into something else -- it's a sunk cost.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

^ 100% truth right there.

I will say this though: If you bought into Soto at peak prices, you’ve definitely taken a hit… BUT at least you have cool cards of a player who is currently on a HOF track, and almost a lock for the HoVG. So while Soto investors are hurting, Soto collectors are still having fun. For Bellinger, everyone is hurting.

Soto's peak prices were based around the hype that he was Ted Williams 2.0. Even though he's likely still a good hitter based off his Statcast numbers, he's been declining during a period in his career that he should be in his prime.