2024 NBA MVP Thread

[GOATcards]

Current odds, seems a lot of folks still irrationally doubting Joker in which case there's untapped gambling value there, correct?

Nikola Jokic +450
Giannis Antetokounmpo +550
Luka Doncic +550
Joel Embiid +650
Jayson Tatum +900
Kevin Durant +1200
Stephen Curry +1200
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +1500
Devin Booker +1800
LeBron James +2200

A pretty familiar-looking MVP ballot if these odds hold.


My predictions for balloting/award-share order:

Jokic (90%+ share)
Giannis (60%)
Tatum (50%)
Luka (35%, on a low-seed or play-in team...)
Embiid/SGA (10-15%, latter depends on Chet health+contribution)

After the season the career Award Shares leaders among active players (rounded to nearest one-tenth point) will look like:
Bron - 8.8
Giannis - 4.1
Jokic - 3.7
Beard - 3.6
KD - 3.1
Steph - 2.7
Joel - 2.4

[daeve]

Nuggs fans showing out today, won't soon forget the ridic smear campaign from Big Disney.

[NeedChapmans]

It will be interesting to see how the new NBA games played rule factors in. If a big name player is teetering on the games missed line w/ a month to go, will some of them forgo big counting stats simply to start a game and be pulled in the 1st quarter? Is that fineable (I bet it will be).

Fun season upcoming / never take Jokic odds out of the gate ... they always improve by December.

[rifleman69]

Ja comes back and averages 40 a game. Tee and I celebrate on the Santa Monica Pier.

[MJ23Collector]

I guess you could still get good odds on Wemby...

[Tallboy]

Originally Posted by rifleman69

Ja comes back and averages 40 a game. Tee and I celebrate on the Santa Monica Pier.

With a 25 game suspension, isn't Ja now eliminated from all awards consideration?

To the thread in general:

Jokic will be a huge favorite now. Basically all the voters who didn't vote for Jokic this year will feel like they owe him the next one and will be looking for reasons to vote for him instead of excuses not to.

[rifleman69]

Originally Posted by Tallboy

With a 25 game suspension, isn't Ja now eliminated from all awards consideration?

To the thread in general:

Jokic will be a huge favorite now. Basically all the voters who didn't vote for Jokic this year will feel like they owe him the next one and will be looking for reasons to vote for him instead of excuses not to.

He can still be the best player in the NBA with Tee's help.

[Boo]

Originally Posted by MJ23Collector

I guess you could still get good odds on Wemby...

[GOATcards]

who are the sorts of players right now who you could see winning an MVP in the next few years? Can you envision Tatum winning MVP given the competition? He seems like the borderline case after Joker/Giannis/Luka/WEMBANYAMA
(somehow I don't think I can see Embiid winning another)
Ant?

[daeve]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

who are the sorts of players right now who you could see winning an MVP in the next few years? Can you envision Tatum winning MVP given the competition? He seems like the borderline case after Joker/Giannis/Luka/WEMBANYAMA
(somehow I don't think I can see Embiid winning another)
Ant?

I'd go Joker/Giannis/Luka/SGA/Ant as best possibilities.

Then Dame/Jimmy/Booker/Tatum/AD as your next wave with a lot more potential for them to not be near the top at all imo. I think Dame's best shot would be going somewhere like Brooklyn and immediately catapulting them into relevancy again or a top seed would get him some pub. Booker would have to be the alpha on his superteam and they'd have to have a regular season befitting of one to have a shot.

[The Accountant]

Originally Posted by daeve

I'd go Joker/Giannis/Luka/SGA/Ant as best possibilities.

Then Dame/Jimmy/Booker/Tatum/AD as your next wave with a lot more potential for them to not be near the top at all imo. I think Dame's best shot would be going somewhere like Brooklyn and immediately catapulting them into relevancy again or a top seed would get him some pub. Booker would have to be the alpha on his superteam and they'd have to have a regular season befitting of one to have a shot.

Leaving Curry and Embiid off is kind of crazy. Curious why when Vegas has them 7th and 4th best odds, respectively?

[daeve]

Originally Posted by The Accountant

Leaving Curry and Embiid off is kind of crazy. Curious why when Vegas has them 7th and 4th best odds, respectively?

I don't see GS being near the top of the standings though they could be dangerous as a lower seed and just like how Embiid used 'narrative' to steal one from Jokic, he's got it going against him this year.

[Braswell10]

No Jordan Poole or Kyle Kuzma??

[gomiamigo]

Embiid, Giannis, Luka

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by daeve

I'd go Joker/Giannis/Luka/SGA/Ant as best possibilities.

Then Dame/Jimmy/Booker/Tatum/AD as your next wave with a lot more potential for them to not be near the top at all imo. I think Dame's best shot would be going somewhere like Brooklyn and immediately catapulting them into relevancy again or a top seed would get him some pub. Booker would have to be the alpha on his superteam and they'd have to have a regular season befitting of one to have a shot.

Dame turns 33 this month, Jimmy turns 34 in Sept. How many players won MVPs at that age or later? Award winners and ages right here: https://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/mvp.html

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

Embiid, Giannis, Luka

get out of my thread
unrepentant joker-basher w/zero cred

[daeve]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

Dame turns 33 this month, Jimmy turns 34 in Sept. How many players won MVPs at that age or later? Award winners and ages right here: https://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/mvp.html

Actually wild there hasn't been one over 30 since Nash. And none at 33/34 since MJ and Malone. Maybe the law of averages says we get one this decade. I don't give them great odds either way, I just don't think outside of the first wave/top 5 I posted that any others have a >5% shot. Think of it like Joker ~15%, Giannis/Luka ~10%, SGA/Ant ~5%, tier 2 ~2-4%.

[GOATcards]

ages of last dozen MVP award winners, it's like the competition really stiffened up somehow

28, 26, 25, 25, 24, 28, 28, 27, 26, 25, 28, 27

if this pattern holds up, the next MVP winner will be between the age of 24 and 28

last player 30 or over to win was Nash in '06, a highly controversial pick in itself and nearly 2 decades ago

[GOATcards]

if the age 24-28 pattern holds up, Embiid and Giannis, both 29 this coming season, are past their MVP age already. Joker won't be

[The Accountant]

Originally Posted by daeve

I don't see GS being near the top of the standings though they could be dangerous as a lower seed and just like how Embiid used 'narrative' to steal one from Jokic, he's got it going against him this year.

Fair enough. Embiid didn't steal anything, he earned it, but that's a debate that we'll likely just disagree on.

Appreciate you going off script for sure. These Vegas rankings will look significantly different by a few weeks into the season anyways. I don't think this is a year someone miscellaneous steals an MVP. It's going to be a perennial guy again. Giannis, Embiid, and Jokic have been too good to just fall off and lose it. One of those three will hoist it. Just my 2 cent

[Above the Rim]

I love Giannis, think he is currently flat out the best player. But his knees have cumulated injuries over the past years and I really hope its all behind him. However, knees are super critical and they need to be injury free for a player to truly excel to their potential.

If Giannis' knees are good to go for the whole season, he is a great pick for another MVP. But Jokic may have something to say about that. Both are extraordinary players and deserve to be 1 and 1A for the MVP.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by Above the Rim

I love Giannis, think he is currently flat out the best player. But his knees have cumulated injuries over the past years and I really hope its all behind him. However, knees are super critical and they need to be injury free for a player to truly excel to their potential.

If Giannis' knees are good to go for the whole season, he is a great pick for another MVP. But Jokic may have something to say about that. Both are extraordinary players and deserve to be 1 and 1A for the MVP.

Turns out I am looking to acquire some aesthetically nice dollar-bin Freak cards to complement my recent acquisition of some similarly situated Joker cards. '19 Chronicles for example.

I agree that they are the 2 best in the game talent-wise, but injuries are a concern for the Freak and he did have a bit of a down year.

(As for who is the best player, Joker's detractors - still not learning their lesson, I think - point to his non-stellar defense. Fair enough, if you're going to also point to where the Freak isn't stellar, like in 3-point and FT shooting. ("Eye tests" limited to highlight-reel material are grossly inadequate - obviously.) Hard to knock his game otherwise.)

also:

Originally Posted by GOATcards

Leaders in total VORP (regular-season) over the last 5 seasons, min. 20 VORP:

Jokic - 40.0
Giannis - 32.3
Harden - 28.1
Doncic - 26.4
LeBron - 23.9
Embiid - 23.0
Lillard - 22.7
Butler - 20.9
Curry - 20.1

(BTW I do suspect that BPM/VORP undervalue defense, hence the under-rating of players like Kobe and Hakeem in that metric relative to MVP Shares, which EPM appears to correct for. And still Joker has been the highest-EPM player the last 2 seasons (I don't know about before that).)

[GOATcards]

SGA? He turns 25 in a week, his BPM this last season was in the 7-8 range, and the MVP winners over the last decade have had BPM around 10 or higher (the slight exception being the 9-BPM winner in '23).
https://www.basketball-reference.com...pm_top_10.html

So he's in that age 24-28 window for greatest likelihood for MVP and his BPM hasn't yet approached that 10-or-so territory (his '23 season being something of an outlier in his career so far).

I guess I'd have to put him in daeve's 2nd tier of players with ~2% chance?

[GOATcards]

RealGM thread: Joel Embiid has become overhated

My assessment: given his disappointing playoff appearances (or no-shows as the case may be), he doesn't have much in the way of bragging rights or clout with the fans. He talks aplenty about regular-season MVP. (In MJ's case, being robbed of the '97 MVP, he didn't whine but rather let his playoff performance do the talking.)

In this past Game 7 elimination, he put up all of 15 points and then talked in the press conference about how all the players need to step up; do you imagine the likes of MJ, Mr. Russell, Magic, Duncan, Jokic throwing teammates under the bus? (Was he referring to the Beard's 9 points in that same game 7? And? What about the 15 points from the so-called MVP. And he wasn't even active for some of the playoffs because of his nagging health issues, in addition to his very sub-par per-minute numbers.)

I don't plan on watching Embiid this season outside of this or that game highlights or playing against the other MVP-ballot-discussion players. The regular season is merely preparation and qualifying for the playoffs, and it's the playoffs where the game's greats are made. Embiid has lost any benefit of the doubt there.

[The Accountant]

I got in on Embiid last night +1000 (now +750) and Jokic +340 (+270 last I saw)

Feels like we’re going to be right where we have been the past few season with Luka, Curry, and Tatum showing some flashes. Maybe antman and Giannis?

I keep my eye out early in the season and those two appear to be the two best players in the nba yet again. Embiid +750. Nurse scheme seems to only be helping him. Jokic at +270 still feels like great value too. His stats are wildly impressive