Will Mike Trout reach 100 career WAR?

[daveyc1]

For awhile, it seemed just a matter of time. with the injuries of late, I wonder.

He currently has 85. the last 4 seasons, he has averaged about 3 per season. He would need to have 5 more seasons just like the last 4 to make it. How likely is that?

It seems likely he will be moved either to 1b or DH in the next few seasons. This may be the death knell for him making it as he would lose the positional adjustment from CF. He will most likely not be getting healthier as he ventures further into his 30's. This is the first season his offense has seen a significant decline as well.

As a comparison, it seemed Pujols would rocket past 100 and end up well above. at age 32, Trouts current age, he had accumulated 91 WAR. His last 11 seasons he only added another 10 WAR to his total. He only squeaked past 100 with an amazing resurgence during his last season.

What do you think?

[HeritageKing]

Better questions to ask:

Will Trout ever go an entire season without getting hurt?
Will Trout every play in October?

[redauto5]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

For awhile, it seemed just a matter of time. with the injuries of late, I wonder.



He currently has 85. the last 4 seasons, he has averaged about 3 per season. He would need to have 5 more seasons just like the last 4 to make it. How likely is that?



It seems likely he will be moved either to 1b or DH in the next few seasons. This may be the death knell for him making it as he would lose the positional adjustment from CF. He will most likely not be getting healthier as he ventures further into his 30's. This is the first season his offense has seen a significant decline as well.



As a comparison, it seemed Pujols would rocket past 100 and end up well above. at age 32, Trouts current age, he had accumulated 91 WAR. His last 11 seasons he only added another 10 WAR to his total. He only squeaked past 100 with an amazing resurgence during his last season.



What do you think?

While this question hurts the sensibilities of my Trout Fandom, you give a good example in Pujols so I'll try to response less emotional than I otherwise might've! Trout will have a resurgence, popping off 5+ WAR in each of his next 5 seasons. Then there will be an inevitable decline but my guess is he reaches over 120 WAR in his career. He will age much more gracefully than Albert. I'm sure I'll get a ton of pushback on this which is fine. I choose to be optimistic when it comes to Trouty.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[discostu]

Originally Posted by HeritageKing

Better questions to ask:

Will Trout ever go an entire season without getting hurt?
Will Trout every play in October?

Yes, there's a good chance that if he can get healthy, he'll play (meaningless baseball) in October this season.

[SupermanBrandon]

for baseball fanatics...I hope so

[RiceBondsMT2Yng]

Barring something truly catastrophic I think he gets there quite easily. But it sure is looking a bit dicey these days.

[mikejones]

No poll? Fail.

[Ferg1945]

Originally Posted by discostu

Yes, there's a good chance that if he can get healthy, he'll play (meaningless baseball) in October this season.

[ThoseBackPages]

i think so

[imbluestreak23]

I would bet $$ he does.

But that’s a long period of maturity so would have to pay off nicely

[erock28]

I'm very modestly Trout invested, so I hope so. That said, he appears to be aging AWFULLY fast. Put the injuries aside...he has a nearly 30% K rate this year. Take out the small sample 2021, his OBP has been in decline since his age 27 season. On the surface, his data/decline would point to someone not even playing in the majors by age 35 (in 4 years). Unless he can find a mid/late career revival, I'm not sure he picks up the 15ish WAR to get there. Not a popular opinion I'm sure....but we've seen the same movie for 4 YEARS now.

[Cardsandcoffee]

Originally Posted by redauto5

While this question hurts the sensibilities of my Trout Fandom, you give a good example in Pujols so I'll try to response less emotionally than I otherwise mightve! Trout will have a resurgence, popping off 5+ WAR in each of his next 5 seasons. Then there will be an inevitable decline but my guess is he reaches over 120 WAR in his career. He will age much more gracefully than Albert. I'm sure I'll get a tin if pushback on this which is fine. I choose to be optimistic when it comes to Trouty.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

My prediction is the same

[daveyc1]

keep in mind guys that his run as a CFer will be ending very soon, I believe. if/when Ohtani goes, I can see Mike sliding right over into that DH role. WAR accumulates much, much slower coming from a DH. That, coupled with his injury history and this seasons decline makes for a tough road to get that last 15 WAR.

Remember, Pujols only accumulated 10 in his final 11 seasons. No one would have guessed that when he signed with the Angels.

[Grave252]

Not trolling, but I had no idea Trout has only played in 1 post season series. I only loosely follow baseball but that’s mind blowing. I’m surprised at his hobby success given lack of any postseason success (understanding it’s a team game). In breaks, he is still treated as a big time hit, but feels like we’re a year or two away from much of the hobby moving on from Trout.

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

keep in mind guys that his run as a CFer will be ending very soon, I believe. if/when Ohtani goes, I can see Mike sliding right over into that DH role. WAR accumulates much, much slower coming from a DH. That, coupled with his injury history and this seasons decline makes for a tough road to get that last 15 WAR.

Remember, Pujols only accumulated 10 in his final 11 seasons. No one would have guessed that when he signed with the Angels.

The DH vs CF WAR convo is a good point. I hadn't thought of that.

[Absknicks]

Originally Posted by Grave252

Not trolling, but I had no idea Trout has only played in 1 post season series. I only loosely follow baseball but that’s mind blowing. I’m surprised at his hobby success given lack of any postseason success (understanding it’s a team game). In breaks, he is still treated as a big time hit, but feels like we’re a year or two away from much of the hobby moving on from Trout.

There was a lot of pump about Trout being the 'GOAT' up until a couple of years ago when the prisoner of the moment types moved onto Ohtani.

Of course Trout was never the GOAT, or even close, but there were enough blue checkmarks tweeting about it that you could see how the casual observer would get duped into believing it.

[MoreToppsPlease]

So, comparatively speaking, which of today’s players younger than 27 years old already have 100 WAR priced into their cards?

[sandyfrank]

Yes he will get there. He may be going through a really rough stretch with nagging injuries these past few seasons but he will have a couple really nice seasons left relatively injury free, just you wait and see.

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by sandyfrank

Yes he will get there. He may be going through a really rough stretch with nagging injuries these past few seasons but he will have a couple really nice seasons left relatively injury free, just you wait and see.

Curious what signs you see that point you in that direction?

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

So, comparatively speaking, which of today’s players younger than 27 years old already have 100 WAR priced into their cards?

All of them.

Sent from my SM-S918U using Tapatalk

[towerymt]

Who cares about WAR?

Will he get to 500 HR? 600 HR? 700 HR?

WAR, What is it Good For? Absolutely nothing!

[SupermanBrandon]

WAR's been around since the 80s? But not really a thing anyone paid attention to until 2010'ish?

[daveyc1]

WAR is what put Trout on the map.

[eastbayak]

Will Mike Trout reach 500 HRs?

He’s currently priced like he’d hit 800

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

WAR's been around since the 80s? But not really a thing anyone paid attention to until 2010'ish?

OPS has been around over 100 years, but only became the "in stat" around 2000. Baseball is a game of stats and teams are constantly looking for ways to gain an advantage through statistical analysis. Teams have learned that WAR is a pretty good place to start in their analysis. Like it or not, it's a decent way to consolidate a lot of information to use for quick reference. I'm not a WAR guy, but I absolutely recognize its usefulness if used properly. The two best uses are as a starting point to group players together for more detailed analysis, and for short online discussions where you don't have time to type out a statistical dissertation to make your point. As long as you recognize its limitations, it's great. Unfortunately for the anti-WAR crowd like yourself, you are on a message board where WAR finds its most usefulness.

Sent from my SM-S918U using Tapatalk