Trout vs Betts. Who ends up with more career WAR

[daveyc1]

The Trout WAR thread seemed to garner a fair amount of interest. Here is another...

Trout currently has 85 career WAR, Betts has 63. Betts is a little more than a year younger. The two players are definitely trending in different directions.

Betts has lead the league in WAR in 2 of the last 4 seasons. Trout has not done it since 2016.

Trout has 12 in the last 4 seasons. Betts has 21 over the same time.

BEtts has been more healthy the last few seasons.

What do you think? Can Mookie catch Mike?

[Doublexthebeast]

If Trout plays then Betts won’t catch him. Trout’s injuries are obviously the wildcard. I’ll guess Trout finishes a little over 100 and Betts ends up around 90 when both careers are done.

[goldenthumb51]

Mookie may not catch Trout in war. But if I’m starting a team, I’m taking Mookie over Trout. The guy is a winner.

[cardsin47]

At this point - coin toss

3-ish years ago, I would have laughed at this question - it’s presently legitimate and not funny. I don’t know anyone who loves Trout more than me ( see Avatar to the left and who I PC below ) ~ but objectively, Mookie’s consistency with both production and avoiding injury are undeniable and impressive to say the least.

The ‘what could have been’ due to Trout’s health / missed playing time is my single biggest disappointment and source of heartbreak in the entire Hobby

[itsinusall]

Who cares about WAR, who will have a better legacy is the question that has me curious.

[rats60]

Betts will pass Trout in WAR if he moves to 2nd base full time so he can get the same ridiculous position bump in WAR that Trout gets from being a below average CF.

[txrngr34]

I feel like you're essentially asking who's going to be healthier.

I can't imagine Trout being healthier going forward than Betts, so if I had to guess, I'd take Betts as the higher final WAR.

There's always something to be said for guys that can stay predominantly healthy over a long career - it may not be a skill, per se, but it's also not just luck, it takes work too.

In hypotheticals, Trout obviously has the higher WAR potential.

[daveyc1]

while it is an overused cliche, the best ability is availability!!

That being said, if i were a GM and drafting one of the two today, give me Mookie!

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by txrngr34

I feel like you're essentially asking who's going to be healthier.

I can't imagine Trout being healthier going forward than Betts, so if I had to guess, I'd take Betts as the higher final WAR.

There's always something to be said for guys that can stay predominantly healthy over a long career - it may not be a skill, per se, but it's also not just luck, it takes work too.

In hypotheticals, Trout obviously has the higher WAR potential.

Doesn't help that Trout is built like a linebacker.

[dantheman514]

Originally Posted by itsinusall

Who cares about WAR, who will have a better legacy is the question that has me curious.

This really is the best question, and Mookie should have the better legacy playing way more high profile games while playing for two high profile teams.

[SupermanBrandon]

I’d rather have Mookie’s career than Trout’s. Just as I’d rather have Freeman’s than Trout’s.


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[JoshMN]

My prediction is something similar to what happened with Aaron and Mantle.

Mantle had the historic peaks, but crashed a bit at the end due to injuries. Aaron stayed healthy and put up some great seasons in his late 30s after being overshadowed earlier in his career. I could see Betts following that path.

These guys are still pretty young in the grand scheme! A lot could happen- will be interesting to revisit this question in a few years.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by txrngr34

I feel like you're essentially asking who's going to be healthier.

I can't imagine Trout being healthier going forward than Betts, so if I had to guess, I'd take Betts as the higher final WAR.

There's always something to be said for guys that can stay predominantly healthy over a long career - it may not be a skill, per se, but it's also not just luck, it takes work too.

In hypotheticals, Trout obviously has the higher WAR potential.

Health should always be considered the sixth tool in player evaluations.

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

Health should always be considered the sixth tool in player evaluations.

Speaking of health, is this the year Byron Buxton expired? Last year he had issues, but when he was on the field and hitting he was one of the most productive players in the game.

This year despite only DH'ing he's been completely meh.

[ThoseBackPages]

no reason not to collect both.

[SidVish]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

no reason not to collect both.

No that's not how it works! You must root for the guy you collect and go all in on and disparage the others.

[SleepyWill]

The best ability is availability.

[lawrencedc1]

This. Spot on

[f2tornado]

Mookie is -18.3 now. He probably gains 2-3 before Trout come back. Let's say he's gonna be -16. That's a tall order. Let's say Trout limps along plugging in 3 WAR seasons for the rest of the decade while Mookie is posting 8's. Then Mookie could do it in 2029 or 2030. Plausible, but not something I'd bet on without getting some big odds.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Mookie is -18.3 now. He probably gains 2-3 before Trout come back. Let's say he's gonna be -16. That's a tall order. Let's say Trout limps along plugging in 3 WAR seasons for the rest of the decade while Mookie is posting 8's. Then Mookie could do it in 2029 or 2030. Plausible, but not something I'd bet on without getting some big odds.

It's completely about if Trout can actually come back and accumulate more stats. If he gets to 110 WAR, that's going to be almost certainly out of reach.

But Betts is in his age 31 season, has been pretty much completely healthy, and is screaming towards his third 7+ WAR season in a row. He's got a huge bWAR/fWAR gap - nearly 10 wins currently - but Betts is at 68 bWAR already. Something in the 100-110 range seems very possible, and 90 feels like a lock if he is healthy for a few more years. If Trout never plays 100 games in a season again, Betts is at least capable of passing him.

Either way, if it's close on the stats and Betts has 2+ rings and Trout has never done anything in the playoffs, Betts will eventually wind up being the player of the generation. Winning another MVP this year would help a lot in that regard, I'd also think.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Either way, if it's close on the stats and Betts has 2+ rings and Trout has never done anything in the playoffs, Betts will eventually wind up being the player of the generation. Winning another MVP this year would help a lot in that regard, I'd also think.

I agree. My only knock on Mookie is he's good at everything piling up the WAR, but probably lacks consistent power for 500 HRs and his overall BA will require some longevity to obtain 3000 hits. It seems like the most memorable names in history obtained one of those milestones. Trout still has the best chance of the pair to get there. I just wonder if limping to the milestone like an Eddie Murray might hinder the perception heading into a WAR debate.

From a card perspective, I was suggesting Mookie over Trout going into the season but that price gap has narrowed considerably. I'd probably still prefer Mookie given his MVP and post season potential.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I agree. My only knock on Mookie is he's good at everything piling up the WAR, but probably lacks consistent power for 500 HRs and his overall BA will require some longevity to obtain 3000 hits. It seems like the most memorable names in history obtained one of those milestones. Trout still has the best chance of the pair to get there. I just wonder if limping to the milestone like an Eddie Murray might hinder the perception heading into a WAR debate.

From a card perspective, I was suggesting Mookie over Trout going into the season but that price gap has narrowed considerably. I'd probably still prefer Mookie given his MVP and post season potential.

The gap is mostly closely because Trout prices are cratering; there was a BGS 9.5 /500 refractor 2009 auto that went for less than 7K in last night's PWCC, and that was a $12K card three months ago.

The baseball world is just going to have to get used to living in an era where 500 HR/3000 hits/300 (or even 250 wins) aren't things that happen hardly at all anymore. Some of that is the modern emphasis on OBP - Betts already has 3/4 of the career walks of players like Robin Yount and Tony Gwynn, and is three walks short of Ichiro. Plus the usual caveats about the COVID year - Betts et all lost 100 games for reasons out of their control.

That said, Betts has a small slice of a chance of getting to 500 HRs if his power from the last couple of years sticks around, although he'll probably have to play to 40-42 to get there. Seems a lot more likely to me that he winds up with 2700 hits and 450 HR than hitting either of the 3000/500 totals.

[Stifle]

Originally Posted by itsinusall

Who cares about WAR, who will have a better legacy is the question that has me curious.

Ditto, If baseball becomes decided by the team that creates the most opportunities wins, then I’ll have to change my stance on WAR. There is a clutch factor that WAR negates because ALL situations are equal, Rubbish !

WAR is a fictionalized metric attempting to equate value on counting stats. How many times do we see a team go 0-8 in RISP with the other team having 1/3rd the amount of hits, walks, etc and win.

If Betts wouldn’t be so invisible in producing when it means anything in the playoffs, the difference between the two would nearly be a coin flip. I actually believe if Betts had Cory Seager like post seasons, he might just be in front.

[davidantx]

Betts. Trout will be remembered in the end as Dale Murphy v2. Tremendous player and could have been a HOF player (may still even get consideration) but too many injuries were the set back, and didnt win anything meaningful in the post season.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by tyrith

The gap is mostly closely because Trout prices are cratering; there was a BGS 9.5 /500 refractor 2009 auto that went for less than 7K in last night's PWCC, and that was a $12K card three months ago.

Mookie’s is $1800-2000 today. The gap may be narrowing, but it’s still wide. Will be interesting to see what it looks like in 10 years. I don’t think Trout will do anything to keep prices from falling. But for whatever reason, Mookie is a hobby under performer relative to what he does on the field. And I’m guessing he remains that way with Ohtani stealing the spotlight.