Are there ANY Hockey boxes "worth opening?"

WallyatJCCards · 09-26-2023, 07:01 PM

I have been maxing out my allocations on almost every hockey product for 2-3 years now. I used to have customers who would rip boxes occasionally and that has slowed to sadly 1-2 guys buying a box once a month or so.

So, I have been ripping everything to try and recoup some of my cost and just sell on COMC. Will there be a suprise or kinda gaurantee this year where people will definitely open because there is ACTUALLY A CHANCE to get something good or the plethora of crap will just continue to make it's way out for me to continue getting a 20% ROI?

The Cup is always fun, but 4 years behind and seemingly far more difficult to get anything decent than it used to be. Also nice that I can't get a single box of The Cup from distributor who I max out every other product, but that's a whole different story.

Thanks for any input!

vthobby · 09-26-2023, 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WallyatJCCards

I have been maxing out my allocations on almost every hockey product for 2-3 years now. I used to have customers who would rip boxes occasionally and that has slowed to sadly 1-2 guys buying a box once a month or so.

So, I have been ripping everything to try and recoup some of my cost and just sell on COMC. Will there be a suprise or kinda gaurantee this year where people will definitely open because there is ACTUALLY A CHANCE to get something good or the plethora of crap will just continue to make it's way out for me to continue getting a 20% ROI?

The Cup is always fun, but 4 years behind and seemingly far more difficult to get anything decent than it used to be. Also nice that I can't get a single box of The Cup from distributor who I max out every other product, but that's a whole different story.

Thanks for any input!

UD Series 2 in March of next year of course! Connor mania!

tyrith · 09-26-2023, 07:15 PM

No, I wouldn't say so. 2019 product was the last time I think you could rip stuff and not get absolutely blasted, but from 2019 -> 2020 most of the wax prices doubled and the single prices very much did not. Stature at $135 or so is the only thing remotely interesting I've seen in the last year, except for one booth at the July Dallas show that was selling Ice/OPC Platinum dirt cheap.

glen87 · 09-26-2023, 07:20 PM

no.

as soon as it becomes available on epack, the comc race to the bottom begins.

brettmik59 · 09-26-2023, 07:30 PM

If you're looking to get out of wax, you can always put it on ebay and undercut the lowest guy. I would do that rather than ripping it. Ripping wax is for the fun and nostalgia, definitely not profitable.

The_Reverend · 09-26-2023, 07:43 PM

As the price keeps going down, 2021-22 UD will break out from the pack. This is one of the deepest rookies called and there are key RC cards in every Series. Series 2 is the deepest, but Series 1 has Caufield, but bad QC

worldtravel00 · 09-26-2023, 07:45 PM

ROI for most boxes will get worse every year due to increased production. So opening boxes will not be good endeavors.

With amount that you're spending on the max # of the boxes, I would either buy older boxes with significant rookie (05/06,15/16,16/17,etc) and keep it sealed for future sale, or buy good auto/rookie cards of Gretzky, Orr, Howe, McDavid, and few others.

anusinha · 09-26-2023, 09:22 PM

The UD flagship retail stuff when it gets to clearance can be profitable. Aside from that, not really.

drcanada · 09-26-2023, 09:30 PM

If you're ripping by the case, OPC is your best bet. This year especially since Bedard rookies will be live in the packs. And the Puzzle Bounty should be for Bedard as well. There's so many easter eggs and SP'ed stuff that makes it worthwhile.

Last year, I ripped 2 cases. Submitted pretty much everything and sold through quite a bit of it. Heck, I'm still selling commons from 21/22 OPC still.

creasecollector · 09-26-2023, 09:33 PM

I would agree with O-Pee-Chee. Anything else right now seems like a gamble in my opinion.

natbornkiller · 09-26-2023, 10:21 PM

better question is there any box that gives you a automatic +roi

Pacman69 · 09-26-2023, 10:59 PM

No

Pacman

Seahawks fan · 09-26-2023, 11:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The_Reverend

As the price keeps going down, 2021-22 UD will break out from the pack. This is one of the deepest rookies called and there are key RC cards in every Series. Series 2 is the deepest, but Series 1 has Caufield, but bad QC

I think this just goes to show how mass produced that stuff is. As you said Series 2 has a strong rookie class with Raymond, Seider, Byfield,McTavish, Perfetti, Mercer,etc , 1st Kraken cards ever, better QC than series 1, many more jersey/patch cards, a few autos, and the OPC update for the hardcore set collectors. Yet a hobby box is only $59.99 USD.

armyml · 09-27-2023, 01:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WallyatJCCards

I have been maxing out my allocations on almost every hockey product for 2-3 years now. I used to have customers who would rip boxes occasionally and that has slowed to sadly 1-2 guys buying a box once a month or so.

So, I have been ripping everything to try and recoup some of my cost and just sell on COMC. Will there be a suprise or kinda gaurantee this year where people will definitely open because there is ACTUALLY A CHANCE to get something good or the plethora of crap will just continue to make it's way out for me to continue getting a 20% ROI?

The Cup is always fun, but 4 years behind and seemingly far more difficult to get anything decent than it used to be. Also nice that I can't get a single box of The Cup from distributor who I max out every other product, but that's a whole different story.

Thanks for any input!

Same as you. Shop owner in Indiana. Been maxing out allocations as well. Had some Hockey guys who were buying boxes but its slowed to about the same pace as you. Ripping Series 1,2, and Extended is fun when you pull an acetate young guns or a nice hit, but most other sets like ICE, Synergy, Credentials etc are brutal. We typically just open what we get and put the hits on Ebay, put together base sets etc. The only product we did real well on selling the singles was Black Diamond. We got lucky with some decent hits. Otherwise +ROI has been rare. We DID get lucky and hit the Bedard gold redemption out of MVP about 4 boxes into a case and a half, but now we have a bunch of MVP boxes nobody has. Upper Deck has a rule where you can't sell online until 6 months after release, so we usually just wait. They definitely check too. Sometimes when we put product into inventory it accidentally gets loaded onto our website for sale. We get an email from Upper Deck real quick.

ThatGuyPal · 09-27-2023, 01:49 AM

Stature is 100% your best bet at a positive ROI vs price point, especially since you have a chance at Caufield if you hit the Suzuki, plus I'm pretty sure that would be a bonus since they thought of the "bounty" program after the fact so you could still get an ok auto which would definitely put you way ahead.

Satan · 09-27-2023, 05:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by natbornkiller

better question is there any box that gives you a automatic +roi

Nope - true across all sports

Philobut · 09-27-2023, 07:11 AM

Synergy is one of the set that gets the most hate from collector but is still one of the safest bet. Cost is low and has lots of parallel so resale price is pretty good compared to other products.

nephinfan · 09-27-2023, 07:17 AM

Could someone please educate me on the whole "Suzuki/Caufield" Stature bounty? I've seen this mentioned a few times, but not 100% clear what it means. I assume you have to hit some sort of Suzuki card and redeem it for some sort of Caufield.

NotGoSportsBall · 09-27-2023, 07:39 AM

I have always been of the mindset that if a product was consistently providing a net positive in value, why wouldn’t the whales just buy it all up? It seems counterintuitive but I think a product HAS to be risky in order for it to be available.

ThatGuyPal · 09-27-2023, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nephinfan

Could someone please educate me on the whole "Suzuki/Caufield" Stature bounty? I've seen this mentioned a few times, but not 100% clear what it means. I assume you have to hit some sort of Suzuki card and redeem it for some sort of Caufield.

https://www.upperdeckblog.com/2023/0...card-programs/

cholodolo · 09-27-2023, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WallyatJCCards

I have been maxing out my allocations on almost every hockey product for 2-3 years now. I used to have customers who would rip boxes occasionally and that has slowed to sadly 1-2 guys buying a box once a month or so.

So, I have been ripping everything to try and recoup some of my cost and just sell on COMC. Will there be a suprise or kinda gaurantee this year where people will definitely open because there is ACTUALLY A CHANCE to get something good or the plethora of crap will just continue to make it's way out for me to continue getting a 20% ROI?

The Cup is always fun, but 4 years behind and seemingly far more difficult to get anything decent than it used to be. Also nice that I can't get a single box of The Cup from distributor who I max out every other product, but that's a whole different story.

Thanks for any input!

Sadly, I'm not sure I can advocate anyone opening a Hobby box of any sport at the moment.

Thank you for sharing this perspective, out of curiosity, how often do you break even on a hobby box? 30-40%? Less?

There's a thread in the Baseball forum about a petition to Fanatics; of the four main points, not one addressed the cost/quality of wax and the absolute money pit it is. Biggest issue for me.

Bcr · 09-27-2023, 03:25 PM

As a hobby we are at the point where wax prices are way too high on all products relative to what the cards are worth. Unless you are looking to gamble then just stick with singles.

mrseanc1 · 09-27-2023, 03:31 PM

It's a strange time. I love the 19-20 and 20-21 SP Authentic sets and the FWAs, would think it would be a good idea to buy and hold but I know there will always be more (particularly 20-21, there are gobs of boxes and cases sitting out there).

kingb22 · 09-28-2023, 07:17 AM

I feel bad for anyone who owns an LCS right now. The current trend on dealernet is that the first sell listings on release are at cost. From there, most have either sold through at that price or gone down. The only ones I can remember increasing from the initial sales were 21-22 Stature, 20-21 Cup (although it's come back down) and SP Legends. Some like Credentials are now 20% below cost for any left unsold.

Given the dynamic above I'd think the blowouts for holiday season will be deep. To open now at today's big 3 prices I'd probably lean Stature also & 21-22 UD S2 (the quality is better than S1 and way better than 22-23 S1/2 while the cost is very cheap).

One recent trend from UD that is also troubling is they used to be pretty diligent on their "one case hit per inner" approach. On things like SPA it was more case hit a and case hit b. Since UD has moved to eliminate inners and move to full master cases a number have moved to 1 case hit per master. (The same holds true for things like Stature - moved from 1 Patch Auto per inner to 1 per master). Ultimate is a good example - and apparently UD considers McTavish and/or Newhook a case hit given they are biggest hit in a fair number of the many (40+) cases I've seen broken. The case hits were often 40-50% of a value of an inner so this is a big impact. If you are opening by the box it's just rough out there!

kingb22 · 09-29-2023, 09:51 AM

I saw an offer of 22/23 S1 Hobby case for $750 - man I wish the quality was better (outside of Canvas which per usual grade really well). But in 2 cases I've gotten exactly -0- PSA 10's of any of the top guys - all 9's or didn't bother to send because they had obvious defects

09-26-2023, 07:01 PM	#1
WallyatJCCards Member Join Date: Feb 2011 Location: Johnson Creek, WI Posts: 1,633 wallyssportscards wallyssportcards	Are there ANY Hockey boxes "worth opening?" I have been maxing out my allocations on almost every hockey product for 2-3 years now. I used to have customers who would rip boxes occasionally and that has slowed to sadly 1-2 guys buying a box once a month or so. So, I have been ripping everything to try and recoup some of my cost and just sell on COMC. Will there be a suprise or kinda gaurantee this year where people will definitely open because there is ACTUALLY A CHANCE to get something good or the plethora of crap will just continue to make it's way out for me to continue getting a 20% ROI? The Cup is always fun, but 4 years behind and seemingly far more difficult to get anything decent than it used to be. Also nice that I can't get a single box of The Cup from distributor who I max out every other product, but that's a whole different story. Thanks for any input! __________________ 10/17/2024 - COMC 1,000+ items under 20 cents

09-26-2023, 07:20 PM	#4
glen87 Member Join Date: Dec 2011 Location: VERMONT Posts: 73,918 glen87 glen87	no. as soon as it becomes available on epack, the comc race to the bottom begins. __________________ collecting James Madison University players of all sports JMU cards: https://www.flickr.com/photos/jmucards/ other cards: https://www.flickr.com/photos/glen87/albums

09-26-2023, 09:33 PM	#10
creasecollector Member Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: Ontario, Canada Posts: 3,595 creasecollector	I would agree with O-Pee-Chee. Anything else right now seems like a gamble in my opinion. __________________ Collecting: Jhonas Enroth View my Collections, Traders & Wantlist: creasecollector.weebly.com Co-Host of the Center Ice Card Cast - A Hockey Card Podcast Instagram/Twitter: @creasecollector

09-26-2023, 10:21 PM	#11
natbornkiller Member Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: bkNY Posts: 22,814	better question is there any box that gives you a automatic +roi __________________ HAH HAH I STILL HAS THE RIGHT TO EDIT THIS !:eatit:

09-27-2023, 07:17 AM	#18
nephinfan Member Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 8,629 nephinfan	Could someone please educate me on the whole "Suzuki/Caufield" Stature bounty? I've seen this mentioned a few times, but not 100% clear what it means. I assume you have to hit some sort of Suzuki card and redeem it for some sort of Caufield. __________________ "To err is human, to forgive canine." ---Anonymous.

09-26-2023, 07:15 PM	#3
tyrith Member Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 1,913 tyrith	No, I wouldn't say so. 2019 product was the last time I think you could rip stuff and not get absolutely blasted, but from 2019 -> 2020 most of the wax prices doubled and the single prices very much did not. Stature at $135 or so is the only thing remotely interesting I've seen in the last year, except for one booth at the July Dallas show that was selling Ice/OPC Platinum dirt cheap.

09-26-2023, 07:30 PM	#5
brettmik59 Member Join Date: Apr 2016 Location: Dallas, TX Posts: 2,078 brettmik59 brettmik59	If you're looking to get out of wax, you can always put it on ebay and undercut the lowest guy. I would do that rather than ripping it. Ripping wax is for the fun and nostalgia, definitely not profitable.

09-26-2023, 07:43 PM	#6
The_Reverend Member Join Date: Jul 2012 Location: Texas Posts: 15,387 islubi	As the price keeps going down, 2021-22 UD will break out from the pack. This is one of the deepest rookies called and there are key RC cards in every Series. Series 2 is the deepest, but Series 1 has Caufield, but bad QC

09-26-2023, 07:45 PM	#7
worldtravel00 Member Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 678	ROI for most boxes will get worse every year due to increased production. So opening boxes will not be good endeavors. With amount that you're spending on the max # of the boxes, I would either buy older boxes with significant rookie (05/06,15/16,16/17,etc) and keep it sealed for future sale, or buy good auto/rookie cards of Gretzky, Orr, Howe, McDavid, and few others.

09-26-2023, 09:22 PM	#8
anusinha Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 13,745	The UD flagship retail stuff when it gets to clearance can be profitable. Aside from that, not really.

09-26-2023, 09:30 PM	#9
drcanada Member Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Vancouver Canada Posts: 418 drcanadax otcards	If you're ripping by the case, OPC is your best bet. This year especially since Bedard rookies will be live in the packs. And the Puzzle Bounty should be for Bedard as well. There's so many easter eggs and SP'ed stuff that makes it worthwhile. Last year, I ripped 2 cases. Submitted pretty much everything and sold through quite a bit of it. Heck, I'm still selling commons from 21/22 OPC still.

09-26-2023, 10:59 PM	#12
Pacman69 Member Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 253 Pacman!99 Pacman69	No Pacman

09-27-2023, 01:49 AM	#15
ThatGuyPal Member Join Date: Jan 2021 Posts: 4,267	Stature is 100% your best bet at a positive ROI vs price point, especially since you have a chance at Caufield if you hit the Suzuki, plus I'm pretty sure that would be a bonus since they thought of the "bounty" program after the fact so you could still get an ok auto which would definitely put you way ahead.

09-27-2023, 07:11 AM	#17
Philobut Member Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 51 Philobut	Synergy is one of the set that gets the most hate from collector but is still one of the safest bet. Cost is low and has lots of parallel so resale price is pretty good compared to other products.

09-27-2023, 07:39 AM	#19
NotGoSportsBall Member Join Date: Mar 2022 Posts: 1,205	I have always been of the mindset that if a product was consistently providing a net positive in value, why wouldn’t the whales just buy it all up? It seems counterintuitive but I think a product HAS to be risky in order for it to be available.

09-27-2023, 03:25 PM	#22
Bcr Member Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 2,777	As a hobby we are at the point where wax prices are way too high on all products relative to what the cards are worth. Unless you are looking to gamble then just stick with singles.

09-27-2023, 03:31 PM	#23
mrseanc1 Member Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 158	It's a strange time. I love the 19-20 and 20-21 SP Authentic sets and the FWAs, would think it would be a good idea to buy and hold but I know there will always be more (particularly 20-21, there are gobs of boxes and cases sitting out there).

09-28-2023, 07:17 AM	#24
kingb22 Member Join Date: Jul 2021 Location: Chapel Hill, NC Posts: 1,039	I feel bad for anyone who owns an LCS right now. The current trend on dealernet is that the first sell listings on release are at cost. From there, most have either sold through at that price or gone down. The only ones I can remember increasing from the initial sales were 21-22 Stature, 20-21 Cup (although it's come back down) and SP Legends. Some like Credentials are now 20% below cost for any left unsold. Given the dynamic above I'd think the blowouts for holiday season will be deep. To open now at today's big 3 prices I'd probably lean Stature also & 21-22 UD S2 (the quality is better than S1 and way better than 22-23 S1/2 while the cost is very cheap). One recent trend from UD that is also troubling is they used to be pretty diligent on their "one case hit per inner" approach. On things like SPA it was more case hit a and case hit b. Since UD has moved to eliminate inners and move to full master cases a number have moved to 1 case hit per master. (The same holds true for things like Stature - moved from 1 Patch Auto per inner to 1 per master). Ultimate is a good example - and apparently UD considers McTavish and/or Newhook a case hit given they are biggest hit in a fair number of the many (40+) cases I've seen broken. The case hits were often 40-50% of a value of an inner so this is a big impact. If you are opening by the box it's just rough out there!

09-29-2023, 09:51 AM	#25
kingb22 Member Join Date: Jul 2021 Location: Chapel Hill, NC Posts: 1,039	I saw an offer of 22/23 S1 Hobby case for $750 - man I wish the quality was better (outside of Canvas which per usual grade really well). But in 2 cases I've gotten exactly -0- PSA 10's of any of the top guys - all 9's or didn't bother to send because they had obvious defects