Anybody else look at this month's gemrate data?

Scottish Punk · 11-02-2023, 01:31 PM

For those fellow nerds who like to look at gemrate data. This month was very interesting.

https://www.gemrate.com/

PSA had its standard 1.2 million slabbed. Becket hanging out at the bottom (albeit with some bigger numbers). SGC had a record month with 129k slabbed. In fact, all the companies are up big from same time as last year.

The big number is CGC. They did 272K this month almost double from what they usually do. However, 255 of that is on the TCG/non sport side. Only 17k for sports cards. NEO cards has a nice video breaking this out. He dug in and found out that PWCC is doing a big repack deal with Pokemon CGC cards. This likely accounts for the big uptick.

But, only 17k for sports. Half of Beckett's numbers. Seem to be trending down each month. If you CGC, you don't want your sports card number to be jumbled in with HGA/TAG output. Pokemon is really keeping them alive at all.

Now, SGC sort of the opposite with only 17K nonsport/TCG, but they have been trending up each month. I think their price point helps for that.

All in all, grading is still very healthy and like 1.7 million cards graded with the big four for October.

discodanman45 · 11-02-2023, 01:48 PM

I am done trying make any sense of what is happening. Grading continues to set record highs, wax sells quick and for high prices, and card prices in slabs/raw continues to crash.

Scottish Punk · 11-02-2023, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discodanman45

I am done trying make any sense of what is happening. Grading continues to set record highs, wax sells quick and for high prices, and card prices in slabs/raw continues to crash.

Stuff is fascinating in the sense that I think the market will be one way and it keeps chugging the other. I wonder if CGC is going to continue the repack route to get submissions high and their holder out to the public. I can see them trying this in the sports cards side. Problem, in my opinion, with that is they will be compared to BCCG grading quality. I don't know what the plan is on the sports card side. Maybe they don't care as long as Pokemon is fueling the cash flow. If we see the 17k dip further down into like 12k, they become an afterthought.

I guess those of a a slower sub this month can thank PWCC!!

CheapThief · 11-02-2023, 02:41 PM

Doesn't Fanatics also own a piece of CGC? If so, this is a stroke of genius. Grade the cards at cost, drop a pristine 10 on anything that moire-or-less deserves it, and shovel them out the door for $30 ea.

An additional benefit is to get more of their slabs in circulation, which can't hurt.

Whoever came up with this little scam deserves a raise.

CheapThief · 11-02-2023, 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

Stuff is fascinating in the sense that I think the market will be one way and it keeps chugging the other. I wonder if CGC is going to continue the repack route to get submissions high and their holder out to the public. I can see them trying this in the sports cards side. Problem, in my opinion, with that is they will be compared to BCCG grading quality. I don't know what the plan is on the sports card side. Maybe they don't care as long as Pokemon is fueling the cash flow. If we see the 17k dip further down into like 12k, they become an afterthought.

I guess those of a a slower sub this month can thank PWCC!!

Very interesting three months coming up. Guys on the sports side of things might not know this, but graded TCG prices have just cratered in about the past 90 days. The fall-off has been dramatic, but unless you follow this stuff closely it's easy to have it off the radar.

PSA is (mostly) still pushing out submissions that they received in August, which is before values began to really plummet, so the fact that they're still doing over 500k TCG cards a month doesn't surprise me. But I WILL be surprised if these numbers hold at the turn of the new year, particularly if they're still at $15.

If that comes to pass, then we'll be in a very strange new world- one where people-- actually, a lot of people-- are willing to pay MORE to have a self-subbed slab than one they can just pick up on the open market. If that's where we're headed then the grading/flipping side of the hobby is about to be utterly transformed.

KhalDrogo · 11-02-2023, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CheapThief

Doesn't Fanatics also own a piece of CGC?

No.

Does CGC even have a functional sports pop report right now? They screwed the pooch so many times since jumping into sports. Sports at CGC is basically the WNBA now.

Scottish Punk · 11-02-2023, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CheapThief

Very interesting three months coming up. Guys on the sports side of things might not know this, but graded TCG prices have just cratered in about the past 90 days. The fall-off has been dramatic, but unless you follow this stuff closely it's easy to have it off the radar.

PSA is (mostly) still pushing out submissions that they received in August, which is before values began to really plummet, so the fact that they're still doing over 500k TCG cards a month doesn't surprise me. But I WILL be surprised if these numbers hold at the turn of the new year, particularly if they're still at $15.

If that comes to pass, then we'll be in a very strange new world- one where people-- actually, a lot of people-- are willing to pay MORE to have a self-subbed slab than one they can just pick up on the open market. If that's where we're headed then the grading/flipping side of the hobby is about to be utterly transformed.

Thanks for the update. I stick the sports side and some non sports stuff. Don't really do much in TCG unless it hits a franchise I like. Nothing in Pokemon. Pokemon seems to be the only thing keeping CGC numbers from the abyss. They are already cheap to grade. Will be interesting indeed if the Pokemon grading market takes a hit. PSA of course can absorb it and probably just run a special or something to goose numbers.

discodanman45 · 11-02-2023, 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CheapThief

Doesn't Fanatics also own a piece of CGC?

Rubin was an individual investor when it was purchased, but no ties to Fanatics specifically. It seems Rubin was also not a major investor in the purchase. Blackstone was the majority investor and there were a lot of people like Jay-Z that also were part of it.

anusinha · 11-02-2023, 03:49 PM

Who the heck is buying all these crap cards in slabs?

discodanman45 · 11-02-2023, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by anusinha

Who the heck is buying all these crap cards in slabs?

Mystery pack sellers. Buy crap slabs for $10 and put them in $50 mystery packs. Rinse and repeat.

Wolverine011 · 11-02-2023, 05:10 PM

double post.

Wolverine011 · 11-02-2023, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

For those fellow nerds who like to look at gemrate data. This month was very interesting.

https://www.gemrate.com/

PSA had its standard 1.2 million slabbed. Becket hanging out at the bottom (albeit with some bigger numbers). SGC had a record month with 129k slabbed. In fact, all the companies are up big from same time as last year.

The big number is CGC. They did 272K this month almost double from what they usually do. However, 255 of that is on the TCG/non sport side. Only 17k for sports cards. NEO cards has a nice video breaking this out. He dug in and found out that PWCC is doing a big repack deal with Pokemon CGC cards. This likely accounts for the big uptick.

But, only 17k for sports. Half of Beckett's numbers. Seem to be trending down each month. If you CGC, you don't want your sports card number to be jumbled in with HGA/TAG output. Pokemon is really keeping them alive at all.

Now, SGC sort of the opposite with only 17K nonsport/TCG, but they have been trending up each month. I think their price point helps for that.

All in all, grading is still very healthy and like 1.7 million cards graded with the big four for October.

One potential driver for the CGC surge is the $5 reholders coming through to convert to the new label. People seem pretty eager to convert their previous Gem Mt 9.5 to 10s.

The_Reverend · 11-02-2023, 06:20 PM

The hobby, the sportscard side, has not embraced CGC and the 3 label changes did not help since they started. The numbers are the numbers, but in my opinion their biggest issue might be their GEM RATE by era data. Getting a 10 is twice as hard and because 10’s are what people want, why choose them, even if they do have the best slab of the 4 companies. My PC is in CSG/CGC slabs.

Jolten Joe · 11-03-2023, 07:14 AM

I for sure have been using SGC more lately simply because there is no club to join to get the cheapest price and their turn around time is great. Maybe it's just me but seems like the resale prices for SGC are slowly closing the gap with PSA. PSA is shooting themselves in the foot with the 2 month turn around times lately. In the latest TCG numbers for October PSA was the only company that was negative month to month.

KeltonB · 11-03-2023, 09:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The_Reverend

The hobby, the sportscard side, has not embraced CGC and the 3 label changes did not help since they started. The numbers are the numbers, but in my opinion their biggest issue might be their GEM RATE by era data. Getting a 10 is twice as hard and because 10’s are what people want, why choose them, even if they do have the best slab of the 4 companies. My PC is in CSG/CGC slabs.

I think they are using that 9.5 Mint+ as a crutch, which is killing the Gem Mint numbers.

bub838 · 11-03-2023, 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jolten Joe

I for sure have been using SGC more lately simply because there is no club to join to get the cheapest price and their turn around time is great. Maybe it's just me but seems like the resale prices for SGC are slowly closing the gap with PSA. PSA is shooting themselves in the foot with the 2 month turn around times lately. In the latest TCG numbers for October PSA was the only company that was negative month to month.

I'm genuinely interested if this is true. I don't really follow SGC.

discodanman45 · 11-03-2023, 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bub838

I'm genuinely interested if this is true. I don't really follow SGC.

It is not true. SGC pumpers want you to believe this. This is coming from someone who primarily uses CGC and has used SGC/PSA in the past three months. Vintage has always been closish with SGC, and sometimes sells higher with lower graded vintage. Nothing can touch mid-grade to higher PSA vintage and a PSA 10 for ultra-modern.

You can cherry pick SGC sales, as well as CGC/BGS, but nothing on average is remotely even close to PSA.

Jolten Joe · 11-03-2023, 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bub838

I'm genuinely interested if this is true. I don't really follow SGC.

Most will tell you it's not because it's very slow but just from cards I watch there is an uptick in the gap.

If PSA continues to have longer wait times and focusing more on TCG than Sports cards It will be interesting to see where we are in another year.

discodanman45 · 11-03-2023, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jolten Joe

Most will tell you it's not because it's very slow but just from cards I watch there is an uptick in the gap.

If PSA continues to have longer wait times and focusing more on TCG than Sports cards It will be interesting to see where we are in another year.

Most majority of the cards that sell for the same price with SGC/PSA, would sell for a better price raw if you take away the additional cost of grading. I have no idea what people are doing right now. They are saturating the market of graded cards. To make any money off of grading, you need to either beat everyone to market with low POP's on ultra-modern before more or graded, get an easy grader at PSA 10 that will give you 80% 10's, or actually know how to vet cards and grade cards you know will add value by getting a certain grade. The last one takes skill and the vast majority of graders don't know how to do this.

1.7 million cards a month being thrown into plastic slabs at an average of around $20 each makes my head hurt.

anusinha · 11-03-2023, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discodanman45

It is not true. SGC pumpers want you to believe this. This is coming from someone who primarily uses CGC and has used SGC/PSA in the past three months. Vintage has always been closish with SGC, and sometimes sells higher with lower graded vintage. Nothing can touch mid-grade to higher PSA vintage and a PSA 10 for ultra-modern.

You can cherry pick SGC sales, as well as CGC/BGS, but nothing on average is remotely even close to PSA.

Agree, especially in ultra modern, you can barely give SGC away

discodanman45 · 11-03-2023, 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by anusinha

Agree, especially in ultra modern, you can barely give SGC away

SGC is great for 90's and before. They hit a demographic that came back into the hobby when PSA was closed down and they are more willing to accept non-PSA slabs. I could make a killing off of SGC grading wise if I wanted to, even in this horrible market. $15 for 70's and older baseball in SGC slabs is easy money if you know how grading works. Throwing ultra-modern into SGC slabs is throwing money away. If it is for your PC, go right ahead. If you want to add value to ultra-modern, TAG might be a better choice.

Boostedwrx · 11-03-2023, 01:28 PM

IDK who in their right mind would want a Pokeman card in a slab.

discodanman45 · 11-03-2023, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boostedwrx

IDK who in their right mind would want a Pokeman card in a slab.

You Gotta Catch 'Em All in a slab or they will get away.

oddstuff · 11-03-2023, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boostedwrx

IDK who in their right mind would want a Pokeman card in a slab.

There apparently is a lot of folks and those that sell them are laughing all the way to the bank.

Jolten Joe · 11-03-2023, 03:20 PM

I thought sports guys were nuts but they don't hold anything to the TCG collectors. Was watching Pawn Stars this week and they bought an original Magic The Gathering sealed Starter deck for $25,000 and opened it to reveal what their CGC expert claimed is a $150,000 card graded. The guy who sold it was visible wanting to vomit. lol

11-02-2023, 01:31 PM	#1
Scottish Punk Member Join Date: May 2013 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 9,928 scottishpunk	Anybody else look at this month's gemrate data? For those fellow nerds who like to look at gemrate data. This month was very interesting. https://www.gemrate.com/ PSA had its standard 1.2 million slabbed. Becket hanging out at the bottom (albeit with some bigger numbers). SGC had a record month with 129k slabbed. In fact, all the companies are up big from same time as last year. The big number is CGC. They did 272K this month almost double from what they usually do. However, 255 of that is on the TCG/non sport side. Only 17k for sports cards. NEO cards has a nice video breaking this out. He dug in and found out that PWCC is doing a big repack deal with Pokemon CGC cards. This likely accounts for the big uptick. But, only 17k for sports. Half of Beckett's numbers. Seem to be trending down each month. If you CGC, you don't want your sports card number to be jumbled in with HGA/TAG output. Pokemon is really keeping them alive at all. Now, SGC sort of the opposite with only 17K nonsport/TCG, but they have been trending up each month. I think their price point helps for that. All in all, grading is still very healthy and like 1.7 million cards graded with the big four for October.

11-02-2023, 01:48 PM	#2
discodanman45 Member Join Date: Jun 2020 Location: CA Posts: 9,866 danch27	I am done trying make any sense of what is happening. Grading continues to set record highs, wax sells quick and for high prices, and card prices in slabs/raw continues to crash. __________________ Always looking for rarer Rik Smits cards and cards from the 2014-15 Spectra Global Icons set. Send me a message!

11-02-2023, 06:20 PM	#13
The_Reverend Member Join Date: Jul 2012 Location: Texas Posts: 15,436 islubi	The hobby, the sportscard side, has not embraced CGC and the 3 label changes did not help since they started. The numbers are the numbers, but in my opinion their biggest issue might be their GEM RATE by era data. Getting a 10 is twice as hard and because 10’s are what people want, why choose them, even if they do have the best slab of the 4 companies. My PC is in CSG/CGC slabs. Last edited by The_Reverend; 11-02-2023 at 06:29 PM.

11-02-2023, 02:41 PM	#4
CheapThief Member Join Date: Jan 2021 Location: Pocket jacks gone horribly wrong. Posts: 487	Doesn't Fanatics also own a piece of CGC? If so, this is a stroke of genius. Grade the cards at cost, drop a pristine 10 on anything that moire-or-less deserves it, and shovel them out the door for $30 ea. An additional benefit is to get more of their slabs in circulation, which can't hurt. Whoever came up with this little scam deserves a raise.

11-02-2023, 03:49 PM	#9
anusinha Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 13,770	Who the heck is buying all these crap cards in slabs?

11-02-2023, 05:10 PM	#11
Wolverine011 Member Join Date: Jan 2021 Posts: 149	double post.

11-03-2023, 07:14 AM	#14
Jolten Joe Banned - PBM Join Date: Dec 2022 Posts: 1,666	I for sure have been using SGC more lately simply because there is no club to join to get the cheapest price and their turn around time is great. Maybe it's just me but seems like the resale prices for SGC are slowly closing the gap with PSA. PSA is shooting themselves in the foot with the 2 month turn around times lately. In the latest TCG numbers for October PSA was the only company that was negative month to month.

11-03-2023, 01:28 PM	#22
Boostedwrx Member Join Date: Jan 2022 Posts: 252	IDK who in their right mind would want a Pokeman card in a slab.

11-03-2023, 03:20 PM	#25
Jolten Joe Banned - PBM Join Date: Dec 2022 Posts: 1,666	I thought sports guys were nuts but they don't hold anything to the TCG collectors. Was watching Pawn Stars this week and they bought an original Magic The Gathering sealed Starter deck for $25,000 and opened it to reveal what their CGC expert claimed is a $150,000 card graded. The guy who sold it was visible wanting to vomit. lol