"wrong foil color" Kobe rookie - what to do

[Nomad]

So,

This has been on my mind the past couple years, as I have seen the basketball market rise and crater and gone from troll to accepted member to troll and back again.

What should I do with the Kobe rookie graded "wrong foil color" error/variation, still presumably at the CSG vault in Florida?

A recap:

The first indicator that it was an interesting find was my own research and criterion of a good error/variation being that which both a seasoned 90s collector and a relative newbie (me) could believe in good faith was in fact a rare variation.

The second was the attention it garnered on Blowout, though actually a lot of money is riding on set propositions in clcting, and there is more inertia going backward, as sunk investment choices blah blah... didn't quite realize that at the time.

The third was that, despite my booking a booth at the first Mint Collective in LV, CSG refused to send it to me by mail or bring it in person for me to pick up. Reason, I finally pried out, was the insurance level I sent it in at was so low they could not in good faith take it out of the vault it unless I picked it up in person. The value was unknown.

The fourth was that neither PSA (duh) or Beckett (whoah) would think of grading it, but the head Beckett grader, known for his interest in errors/variations, had recently been poached by CSG. So miraculously it was reputably graded.

The fifth was that a Golden representative could not be convinced a) that it was not a back-doored card b) that there were not other examples in still unopened boxes or c) even if these criterion were met, it would be worthy of inclusion in a premier level auction.

The sixth was that some veteran BO member made the actual effort of ordering a few "silvers" he saw off eBay. Later turned out that, yes, gold foil can appear silver on a bad scanner.

The seventh is that I reached out to someone who knew all about Topps production of 90s and he said the manufacturing was outsourced and that blah blah I forget. Anyway, 99 % proved the pack-pulled aspect, which I had confirmed initially (the collector remembered pulling it).

The eight is Kobe himself. Foil variation of his first pro card. A remnant of a first batch before they perfected the ink color that somehow made it into a pack. Sounds fictional but plausibly true.

[Blake050]

Do you have a picture of the card?

[GOATcards]

make this about the card of a stronger GOAT candidate and then I'll be more interested, strain is strawberry pie

[Nomad]

Originally Posted by Blake050

Do you have a picture of the card?

that last one a norm check purchased from same clcter.

[Blake050]

What would you estimate the value of this card? Hypothetically, what amount would it take for you to sell it?

[Nomad]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

make this about the card of a stronger GOAT candidate and then I'll be more interested, strain is strawberry pie

glass house - waiting game.. and hot green tea with tropical florals

[Nomad]

Originally Posted by Blake050

What would you estimate the value of this card? Hypothetically, what amount would it take for you to sell it?

I would prefer to trade it with some cash on top. I want a more diversified 90s insert collection. I can say off the top of my head that 10 PMG greens exist.

Probably a few dozen more 96-97 Topps Finest boxes have been opened since 2021. Another few thousand old collections gone through and plundered. So, well, let's just say to be generous that 5 of these might plausibly exist.

[Blake050]

Originally Posted by Nomad

I would prefer to trade it with some cash on top. I want a more diversified 90s insert collection. I can say off the top of my head that 10 PMG greens exist.

Last sale of a Kobe PMG green that I can find was in March 2020 for almost $150k.

Last sale of a Kobe PMG red was in August 2023 for a PSA "Authentic" slab for $84k.

So you'd value this around $150k?

[Nomad]

That sounds reasonable. Although green is probably more like $250k now. A something something Kobe insert just did six figures on Golden.

Also I want to help the original clcter build a basketball park or something.

[Blake050]

If you had to guess, what do you think it would go for if you put it up for ebay auction starting at 99 cents?

[tjforce]

$0.99 and let it ride.

Pay for any kind of eBay promoted listing if you'd like.

[Nomad]

Probably not the right question for this kind of card. As with fake news, no serious collector would buy an error like this on the bay unless it was a stab in the dark steal. Because it wouldn't come up in any other way.

Sorry, it won't.

[Archangel1775]

The third was that, despite my booking a booth at the first Mint Collective in LV, CSG refused to send it to me by mail or bring it in person for me to pick up. Reason, I finally pried out, was the insurance level I sent it in at was so low they could not in good faith take it out of the vault it unless I picked it up in person. The value was unknown.

USPS: Registered mail max insurance: $50,000
FedEx: Max $100,000
UPS" Max $100,000

You both believe it's worth more than $100k? Don't get me wrong, I'm probably picking it up if it's worth more than a car.

Edited to add: I see now you feel its the equivalent or better to a PMG Green.

[Nomad]

That's what I came to believe. I mean, to be honest it cost me $500 and a lot of time, effort, and gas to set up in LV. If a grading card company cannot bring a specific card to a show it's because the insurance value is unknown and potentially substantial.

Coupled with my own sense of the card's rarity, etc... I know a little about cards and collecting.

Anyhaps, without the card in hand there was no conversation starter. Still had a lot of fun and basically broke even on the booth and food costs.

[Archangel1775]

Interesting card. Never heard of it until today. I wonder if it came from a promo or pre-production set. I know Topps had member's only, Finals and all sorts of sets during that decade. Maybe a set given to executives. Good luck on the sale.

[Nomad]

It is a manufacturing error, closest parallel is the Bronze, Gold, and Silver Neismith 50th Anniversary HOF foil error/variations a couple years later, good luck prying those from collections.

I am actually wondering specifically where to bring it after picking it up in Florida sometime before or after Christmas. Is a show a good route? What's the best show in the next few months for that? A dealer? Any dealers experienced in markets willing to consign at my reserve and save me the leg work on seeing if interest exists? Is there an auction house with knowledge and interest in 90s errors? Or even a serious clcter here could throw me a line.

I am definitely not willing to join Insta or Discord over this.

Or is the card tissue paper, which yeah, any card essentially is.

[phdbeckett]

Not a perfect comparison, but a 1992-93 Upper Deck In your face dunk of Michael Jordan correct variation sells $5 delivered on average. There are few examples with Silver foil instead of gold. One is asking $175k, and 2 other listings over 40k.

Terapeak shows on did $55 in June.

Still better than 10x, but no dilutions of fortune in this example.

I also own one in my pc and would be thrilled to get $100 at market if I could.

[Nomad]

So you're saying people are not yet focused on the graded and notated unobtainable, even in the era before RPAs, jerseys, rainbows, 1/1s, and (essentially) numbered cards. Fair enough.

Sounds like a boring collecting environment tho.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Nomad

So you're saying people are not yet focused on the graded and notated unobtainable, even in the era before RPAs, jerseys, rainbows, 1/1s, and (essentially) numbered cards. Fair enough.

Sounds like a boring collecting environment tho.

I think the issue is that a lot people don't want to pay big money for uncertainty.

Most folks don't know what this actually is. Is it a parallel? Factory error? Promo? Back door?

People like buying off of comps and it's hard to know what to comp this with.

[Nomad]

True, but higher risk carries higher reward. I mean if in 10 years the card has been before a few eyeballs, those who started collecting 90s cards who weren't even born in the 90s get more knowledgable, and no other copies emerge...

I'm guessing GOAT rookies are where bankrolls allowing such long term positions to become tenable get involved.

or, not GOAT enough...

[Archangel1775]

I would agree that there are Kobe collectors and 90's collectors that would be interested in this card. I do believe the uncertainty is the issue. This reminds me of the 1993 Topps Vault Derek Jeter Full color proof blank back. Though a very special card and concrete provenance, it was only auctioned for $2500 if I recall correctly. Pre-Auction estimates had it between $25k to $125k. That was about a decade ago. I think today it's probably worth the lower end. The problem with this Kobe is, where are the other silver foil cards? There have to be more out there, at least from this insert set.

[Nomad]

So there are two basic provenance things, beyond what I know from the original collector who had no reason not to remember buying the packs at his LCS. Noting that if there were more than one known copy of this error I wouldn't need to go through this:

1) there are "no foil" variations out there but these were all cut from preproduction sheets that this dealer on eBay freely admitted to cutting up (and why shouldn't he)? At the microscopic level, factory cut is very distinct from any other kind of cut, even with a Gretzky O Pee Chee rookie. So one can assume pack pulled. I assume CSG also has chemical analysis to confirm age of foil application and whether oxidation patterns fall within the norm.

2) His theory (bought his sheets from the old factory I guess) was that they were probably revving up the machines and getting the foil ink applicator going at the very start of production and that nearly all cards that had the faulty silver foil were discarded en masse on the floor. They probably stopped production and changed the ink ratio. Occasionally cards slip through, say one fell on the floor instead of the waste basket and a worker subsequently slotted it in a few minutes later.

Now yeah, each card requires a little research in such production error cases. One year can vary from another. But fortunes have been made in other areas of collectables from such nuances.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by Nomad

glass house - waiting game.. and hot green tea with tropical florals

cross of FPOG and MAC, both deliciously sweet strains, will look for

(garlic icing rn, and not GMO-based either. huh)

[mc1]

Silver foil >>> wrong foil

You should have told them to label as silver foil instead.

[Nomad]

A true collector will see through the word bias theorem. But yeah, on the reslab I will tell them to label it "true silver, FOTL Kobe, infinity symbol"