Betts to 2B WAR impact

[PreservingHist]

Seems like Betts move to 2B would have a large impact on increasing his WAR.

Has anyone seen a calculator on WAR if a player switches positions?

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Uh-oh, you’re about to trigger some people here…

[OhioLawyerF5]

It depends how he performs defensively in the new position. You don't just get an automatic bump in WAR.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

It depends how he performs defensively in the new position. You don't just get an automatic bump in WAR.

He goes from a -7.5 to +2.5 positional adjustment

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[bub838]

Here we go..

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by JRX

He goes from a -7.5 to +2.5 positional adjustment

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I understand that. Doesn't change my answer. We've gone over this before. Positional adjustment means he can accumulate defensive value faster if he plays well at the position. But it's possible he can be an elite RF and accumulate positive dWAR, but perform very poorly at 2B and actually LOSE WAR compared to what he had as an elite RF.

Again, it all depends on how well he plays defensively at 2B compared to other second basemen. You don't get an automatic WAR bump. You still have to perform defensively.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by bub838

Here we go..

Not sure what there is to go about. This is a very simple concept. I think some people are just under the impression that positional adjustment means they take your total WAR and add or subtract at the end of the calculation based on position.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

I understand that. Doesn't change my answer. We've gone over this before. Positional adjustment means he can accumulate defensive value faster if he plays well at the position. But it's possible he can be an elite RF and accumulate positive dWAR, but perform very poorly at 2B and actually LOSE WAR compared to what he had as an elite RF.



Again, it all depends on how well he plays defensively at 2B compared to other second basemen. You don't get an automatic WAR bump. You still have to perform defensively.

Per fangraphs

WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs + Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win)

Pos adj is additive. If his fielding is worse relative to rest of league it could net out, but assuming he's the same relative to his peers it's a net gain.

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[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by JRX

Per fangraphs

assuming he's the same relative to his peers it's a net gain.

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And what makes you make that assumption? My statement was that it depends on how he performs at 2B. Which is exactly what you just said. If he is poor at 2B compared to his peers, there is no net gain. It's not that hard.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

And what makes you make that assumption? My statement was that it depends on how he performs at 2B. Which is exactly what you just said. If he is poor at 2B compared to his peers, there is no net gain. It's not that hard.

It's not no gain it depends on how he is rel to rest of the league. The positional adjustment goes from -7.5 to 2.5, that's a +10 gain. His Fielding needs to be -10 for there to be no impact.

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[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

I understand that. Doesn't change my answer. We've gone over this before. Positional adjustment means he can accumulate defensive value faster if he plays well at the position. But it's possible he can be an elite RF and accumulate positive dWAR, but perform very poorly at 2B and actually LOSE WAR compared to what he had as an elite RF.

Again, it all depends on how well he plays defensively at 2B compared to other second basemen. You don't get an automatic WAR bump. You still have to perform defensively.

So let's say Mookie is absolutely leaugue average at both positions, wouldn't he then be abround +1 WAR at 2B?

[NYBBFAN]

Originally Posted by JRX

He goes from a -7.5 to +2.5 positional adjustment

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few here seem to understand that. Many will say I do not. That's alright though.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

So let's say Mookie is absolutely leaugue average at both positions, wouldn't he then be abround +1 WAR at 2B?

Correct.

Let's say he is a elite RF, but is well below average at 2B. Does he gain any WAR by playing 2B?

I think the confusion for some people is that they assume a player will obtain the same defensive runs at each position. And that isn't true. It is still dependent upon how well they perform at each position relative to the league.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by NYBBFAN

few here seem to understand that. Many will say I do not. That's alright though.

Yes, JRX does not understand that.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by JRX

It's not no gain it depends on how he is rel to rest of the league. The positional adjustment goes from -7.5 to 2.5, that's a +10 gain. His Fielding needs to be -10 for there to be no impact.

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So you agree with me that it depends on how he performs at 2B? I feel like I'm in the twilight zone here. Everything you post agrees perfectly with what I say, but you say it as if you are disagreeing with me.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Just one attempt to get people to understand how the math works. Then I'll leave you to your own devices.

Here is the formula again: WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs + Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win)

The move from RF to 2B increases the positional adjustment. But that move also does not guarantee the Fielding Runs stat stays the same. 2B is a harder position with better skilled defenders playing there. So it's very possible the Fielding Runs stat goes down.

Basic math tells you that in that equation, where those stats are added together, if one goes up and the other can go down based on performance relative to the league, that you are not guaranteed an increase in WAR just from playing a position with a higher positional adjustment number. It is possible to perform so poorly you have a net loss by moving positions.

So you don't get an "automatic bump in WAR" just by moving positions. You get an automatic bump in one stat, which exists because the position you are moving to is harder to play. So your total WAR is still dependent upon how well you can play that new position.

[towerymt]

https://dodgersway.com/posts/mookie-...d-01h0mzezvn2b

Mentions 0.4 dWAR in 17 games in the infield in 2023. I think he'll be fine.

It's certainly a good thing for Fantasy-Baseball-Mookie-Betts. Hopefully he continues to play a little OF once in a while, and some SS, so he can have OF/SS/2B eligibility.

[bub838]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Not sure what there is to go about. This is a very simple concept. I think some people are just under the impression that positional adjustment means they take your total WAR and add or subtract at the end of the calculation based on position.

It's a jokey reference to the MVP thread going wild. This thread will be 20 pages in no time.

You also immediately posted seven times after my post.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by towerymt

https://dodgersway.com/posts/mookie-...d-01h0mzezvn2b

Mentions 0.4 dWAR in 17 games in the infield in 2023. I think he'll be fine.

It's certainly a good thing for Fantasy-Baseball-Mookie-Betts. Hopefully he continues to play a little OF once in a while, and some SS, so he can have OF/SS/2B eligibility.

Oh, don't misunderstand. I did not say Mookie will accumulate less WAR at 2B. In fact, I anticipate quite the opposite. I'm saying it will be dependent on how well he plays that position, which I assume will be quite well. But make no mistake, a position change doesn't guarantee more WAR. It is still dependent on how well the player can play the new position.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by bub838

It's a jokey reference to the MVP thread going wild. This thread will be 20 pages in no time.

You also immediately posted seven times after my post.

I know what you were doing. I was just trying to make the statement that neither the MVP thread, nor this thread should be more than a couple posts. It's only when people who either don't understand WAR, or don't understand what the argument is, start posting that it gets long.

[towerymt]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Oh, don't misunderstand. I did not say Mookie will accumulate less WAR at 2B. In fact, I anticipate quite the opposite. I'm saying it will be dependent on how well he plays that position, which I assume will be quite well. But make no mistake, a position change doesn't guarantee more WAR. It is still dependent on how well the player can play the new position.

LOL. I guess this is your thread now.

[JoshMN]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

I know what you were doing. I was just trying to make the statement that neither the MVP thread, nor this thread should be more than a couple posts. It's only when people who either don't understand WAR, or don't understand what the argument is, start posting that it gets long.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by towerymt

LOL. I guess this is your thread now.

Nah. I made a simple statement to answer OP's question. Then was hit with the same worn out arguments as before. So I explained it. I'm done in this thread. You can have it.

[ThoseBackPages]

Ronny!

[whitmm]

I hope he plays second base every game so I don't have to listen to people try and say his "defensive versatility" the most valuable thing.