Topps MLS Mystery Auto Redemption - thoughts?

[kyleuk21]

UPDATE: I ended up getting quite lucky and hit a green and orange on top of the gold. I sold the gold, am working on selling the green, and redeemed the orange. Fingers crossed that Topps doesn't completely screw these up and they end up being something cool.

So I pulled a gold redemption out of chrome and feel like I need to speculate on who it will be since I'm affected by it now. The big question is whether or not it is Messi. Please list some thoughts one way or the other.

Reasons it IS Messi
- It makes no sense not to have Messi autos in his first MLS product. He is always in Topps products. Would they really produce this with no Messi autos in it? (goat super excluded)
- Topps mystery autos in the past are either great vets or the hottest rookies. Messi is the only notable name missing from the auto checklist minus three below. The young players are essentially all accounted for.
- Can't be Beckham since he is exclusive to panini
- It's unlikely to be Lucho Acosta (mvp) since he has no topps autos up to now
- There is some legal formality preventing them from inserting him into the packs at this particular time, and therefore had to list as an undefined redemption.


Reasons it IS NOT Messi
- The products would likely sell more if they simply stated it was Messi in the first place. This is my biggest hang-up on the topic for sure.
- David Villa, Clint Dempsey, Landon Donovan
- Messi autos have never been numbered as high as /99 like for example the neon green in chrome would make you assume. That said, the colors could simply be much shorter printed than their equivalent base card.

[YayNJ]

If the redemptions are Messi autos, that would mean he has more MLS numbered autos than he has in a Barcelona shirt apparently (I read that somewhere)

that would not only destroy Messi prices on the whole, but make his MLS ones pretty worthless.

that said, Topps don't seem to give two shits about flooding the market with autos and destroying it - Mbappe, Zidane....

[StlBen]

0 chance it's Messi.

[TKCards]

There is a Goat Short Print autograph that is not listed on the checklist of Lionel Messi, so it would be strange if Messi was the Mystery Redemption also.

[kyleuk21]

Originally Posted by YayNJ

If the redemptions are Messi autos, that would mean he has more MLS numbered autos than he has in a Barcelona shirt apparently (I read that somewhere)

that would not only destroy Messi prices on the whole, but make his MLS ones pretty worthless.

They could just as easily make green /50, gold /25, orange /15, etc. Wouldn’t be the first time a color parallel for an auto is numbered to less than its base
Counterpart

Originally Posted by TKCards

There is a Goat Short Print autograph that is not listed on the checklist of Lionel Messi, so it would be strange if Messi was the Mystery Redemption also.

That’s apparently some sort of goat 1/1 auto. I don’t think that has any effect whatsoever on the potential existence of a base auto. This would be the first time his Topps Chrome product did not have a base auto of him which wouldn’t make sense.

[reddragonthe]

Sure - it could be. You can excuse away all of this.

But it doesn't describe the behavior of a PROFIT SEEKING ENTITY for an auto that they would (now) theoretically be able to advertise and announce. Whatever bump you think the "mysterious" auto situation gives the product... imagine if it was ACTUALLY just "hey, everyone - it's Messi. We weren't sure. Now we are. Go buy all of our stuff. There's more where this came from. We are awesome."

But "it's already sold!" - kind of. Fanatics is more than just a cardboard printing company. Driving people to their breakers... or more casuals to the website or the store... is big. A "mystery auto" does nothing outside of the people already interested in it.

If it IS Messi (and they know it right now), they should fire their marketing team. No way you pay for all those signatures and then don't capitalize on it.

[kyleuk21]

Originally Posted by reddragonthe

Sure - it could be. You can excuse away all of this.

But it doesn't describe the behavior of a PROFIT SEEKING ENTITY for an auto that they would (now) theoretically be able to advertise and announce. Whatever bump you think the "mysterious" auto situation gives the product... imagine if it was ACTUALLY just "hey, everyone - it's Messi. We weren't sure. Now we are. Go buy all of our stuff. There's more where this came from. We are awesome."

But "it's already sold!" - kind of. Fanatics is more than just a cardboard printing company. Driving people to their breakers... or more casuals to the website or the store... is big. A "mystery auto" does nothing outside of the people already interested in it.

If it IS Messi (and they know it right now), they should fire their marketing team. No way you pay for all those signatures and then don't capitalize on it.

That’s my only real hang-up on it. If live Messi autos were in it, that likely bumps up box price by $30. If they sold every single box, that’s an additional $621k profit. Just not logical unless there was something contractual disallowing them to do so.

[kyleuk21]

That said - my other theory is that these are some sort of Bowman Chrome variation. The card number (or initial in this case) are BC-MP.

We think MP stands for mystery player. But BC doesn’t have any logical meaning other than Bowman Chrome. Thoughts on that?

If that is true, could literally be anyone. They’ve done Bowman 1st for a number of old and new players like Garnacho in soccer or Ruth/Bench/Clemente in baseball. Since there is no Bowman soccer, no good way to guess a player.

I could be way off. But I can’t come up with anything better.

[YayNJ]

Imagine if they tried to do a Bowman Messi 'MLS' RC card

There's enough people that would lap that up and come back for seconds

[kyleuk21]

Originally Posted by YayNJ

Imagine if they tried to do a Bowman Messi 'MLS' RC card

There's enough people that would lap that up and come back for seconds

Haha yea that would be ridiculous. I wasn’t a fan of the Bowman 1st Cards of some of those old time baseball guys. However, they were a hit with enough folks for them to be quite valuable. So who knows.

The BC has to stand for something though

[YayNJ]

Well, Topps have done the 'lost rookies' set too, they have also started to churn out '1st international' cards..

I've seen enough people on groups that genuinely thought players got a new RC in each league they played in..

Throw in Fanatics greed... it's not that ridiculous

[IndySportsCards]

My guess is it will be Zlatan Ibrahimović

[fadster]

If it was Zlatan, surely they would have advertised it too as they would be his first licensed autos, it'd be a big selling point.

[SleepyWill]

The fact that there is no update from Topps on this is concerning to say the least.

Most other Flagship products that have had mystery redemptions (2019 Topps Series 1 Baseball) are announced already to the fanbase.

Messi would make the most sense, but the volume of numbered auto's would be atypical for him.

[Gin&Juice]

It makes no sense for the mystery auto to be a guy that Topps would otherwise want to advertise to sell the product. Why not tell people that there will be autos of Messi, Zlatan, etc. in the product? Seems more likely that it will be a guy that would otherwise not be a huge selling point but that will be notable enough to justify the "mystery" label. Someone like Benteke, Reynoso, Mukhtar, or Bouanga. Or, if a retired player, a guy like Jorge Campos, Pirlo or Villa.

[kyleuk21]

Originally Posted by Gin&Juice

It makes no sense for the mystery auto to be a guy that Topps would otherwise want to advertise to sell the product. Why not tell people that there will be autos of Messi, Zlatan, etc. in the product? Seems more likely that it will be a guy that would otherwise not be a huge selling point but that will be notable enough to justify the "mystery" label. Someone like Benteke, Reynoso, Mukhtar, or Bouanga. Or, if a retired player, a guy like Jorge Campos, Pirlo or Villa.

I think the main question everyone has if what you said is in fact what it turns out to be - why did Topps not include Messi base autos? This would be the first time he has ever not had one in his chrome product.

I guess either way it turns out, something will make no sense at all.

Originally Posted by SleepyWill

The fact that there is no update from Topps on this is concerning to say the least.

Most other Flagship products that have had mystery redemptions (2019 Topps Series 1 Baseball) are announced already to the fanbase.

Messi would make the most sense, but the volume of numbered auto's would be atypical for him.

I feel like the colors would have to be more short-printed than their base counterpart for that to be the case. I don't see them dumping 400 total Messi autos in flagship and chrome combined. On the flip side, there are only a few MLS products in total. So might make sense to put some more in each since there aren't a ton of products to put him in like there is for UEFA. Seems unlikely still, but would be a plausible explanation.

[kyleuk21]

updated the OP, but I ended up pulling three of these redemptions. Redeemed the orange. Will update when I have more info if Topps doesn't announce anything ahead of time.

[gomiamigo]

Random thought - could it be Pele in a Cosmos uni and they had old stickers lying around?

[YayNJ]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

Random thought - could it be Pele in a Cosmos uni and they had old stickers lying around?

I highly doubt they would waste the last remaining autos of one of the greatest ever players - who is also dead - on an MLS product.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by YayNJ

I highly doubt they would waste the last remaining autos of one of the greatest ever players - who is also dead - on an MLS product.

Did you see what Panini did for Maradona? Don't underestimate what these companies are capable of.

[HeavyJelly]

Throwing my tinfoil hat in the ring here with an option that could makes sense and one that I haven't seen posted. BC-MP stands for Big City - Mystery Player and ya'll could get a random auto from the Big City Striker subset. I think it's a fair guess and a theory to support that is Topps not getting the whited out version for autos in time for release, therefore leading to a last minute scramble to say #@#@#@#@ it and create a mystery redemption. So in theory, you could get a Messi auto but you could also get one of the other twenty options.

Now do the math and see which of those big city cards has a base auto or has had an auto and that should clue you more into the possible options. Taking my tinfoil hat off for now and popping popcorn.

[kyleuk21]

Originally Posted by HeavyJelly

Throwing my tinfoil hat in the ring here with an option that could makes sense and one that I haven't seen posted. BC-MP stands for Big City - Mystery Player and ya'll could get a random auto from the Big City Striker subset. I think it's a fair guess and a theory to support that is Topps not getting the whited out version for autos in time for release, therefore leading to a last minute scramble to say #@#@#@#@ it and create a mystery redemption. So in theory, you could get a Messi auto but you could also get one of the other twenty options.

Now do the math and see which of those big city cards has a base auto or has had an auto and that should clue you more into the possible options. Taking my tinfoil hat off for now and popping popcorn.

I like the thought and that's the kind of thing I was hoping for out of my initial post. That said, I don't think that could be it. Big City Strikers inserts have the initials BCS.

I think Bowman Chrome is a more likely scenario. However, Fanatics has done BC 1st for young and old players, so even if I'm right, it doesn't really provide any clarity to who it could be...

[panenkacards]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

Random thought - could it be Pele in a Cosmos uni and they had old stickers lying around?

The guy who owns the Cosmos would never allow their logos etc. to be used in an MLS product. He hates MLS.

[YayNJ]

Does he even give a damn about the Cosmos? He's pretty much packed them up and put them in the attic for the best part of half a decade while he glamour's it up in Italy with Fiorentina.

[fadster]

It's been a very long time since Topps have had Pele autos too (2016?), would be quite the surprise if they've found some in some long-forgotten cabinet.