Latest sentiment on Wembanyama cards

[Cardsandcoffee]

Hey guys, I am looking to pick up some Wemby cards, have been going back and forth on options, and wanted the opinions of the fine gentleman of BO. This is probably opening a can of worms but appreciated nonetheless. I’m more of a baseball collector but have been delving into basketball more as of late.

Where are we at on the 2022 BCU auto? With the Fanatics exclusivity, do we think this will maintain holding power as prospect/rookie era card? I like how the auto is on-card, with the Bowman 1rst, and is not airbrushed out, unlike a typical non-NBA licensed product. I think the image is solid too, as compared to the Prizm RC. I’ve read both arguments, and know of the Ben Simmons comp and also the Luka Doncic Euroleague comp. Personally I assume this will run closer to the Luka comparison but am not as familiar with basketball cards as I would like to be.

I’m not opposed to a low #’d parallel Prizm (or a future Flawless/NT relic RC) but to me, it’s just not as exciting as an auto. I haven’t been able to find anything on the BCU auto print run and was hoping for some clues there. Gemrate shows a graded pop of just under 400 on the base auto. What are our thoughts on the total signed of those?

I am bummed there won’t be a licensed Spurs RC Auto of him but these are the literal cards we are dealt. Any good insight and discussion is appreciated. Thanks!

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Cardsandcoffee

Hey guys, I am looking to pick up some Wemby cards, have been going back and forth on options, and wanted the opinions of the fine gentleman of BO. This is probably opening a can of worms but appreciated nonetheless. I’m more of a baseball collector but have been delving into basketball more as of late.

Where are we at on the 2022 BCU auto? With the Fanatics exclusivity, do we think this will maintain holding power as prospect/rookie era card? I like how the auto is on-card, with the Bowman 1rst, and is not airbrushed out, unlike a typical non-NBA licensed product. I think the image is solid too, as compared to the Prizm RC. I’ve read both arguments, and know of the Ben Simmons comp and also the Luka Doncic Euroleague comp. Personally I assume this will run closer to the Luka comparison but am not as familiar with basketball cards as I would like to be.

I’m not opposed to a low #’d parallel Prizm (or a future Flawless/NT relic RC) but to me, it’s just not as exciting as an auto. I haven’t been able to find anything on the BCU auto print run and was hoping for some clues there. Gemrate shows a graded pop of just under 400 on the base auto. What are our thoughts on the total signed of those?

I am bummed there won’t be a licensed Spurs RC Auto of him but these are the literal cards we are dealt. Any good insight and discussion is appreciated. Thanks!

Basketball collectors in general don't value non-pro jersey cards.

College cards and non-nba cards are generally junk.

If you're looking for something that's going to hold long term value don't buy anything now and definitely don't buy BCU.

If you don't care about future value just buy what you like

[Cardsandcoffee]

Thanks for the opinion. Definitely am looking more for personal enjoyment but I would be lying if I’d say that future value doesn’t play a part, as his cards aren’t cheap.

Curious as to why this situation doesn’t more closely correlate to the Luka Upper Deck Euroleague auto card for you? From my understanding, that card is still highly popular and that’s WITH Luka having licensed RC auto in a Mavs jersey. From the looks of it, Wembanyama won’t have a licensed RC auto at all so it will help the BCU option (as well as his Best and Inception versions). Maybe it’s because of my baseball focus but I was under the assumption that an auto prospect/rookie card is the best option all things being somewhat equal.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Cardsandcoffee

Thanks for the opinion. Definitely am looking more for personal enjoyment but I would be lying if I’d say that future value doesn’t play a part, as his cards aren’t cheap.

Curious as to why this situation doesn’t more closely correlate to the Luka Upper Deck Euroleague auto card for you? From my understanding, that card is still highly popular and that’s WITH Luka having licensed RC auto in a Mavs jersey. From the looks of it, Wembanyama won’t have a licensed RC auto at all so it will help the BCU option (as well as his Best and Inception versions). Maybe it’s because of my baseball focus but I was under the assumption that an auto prospect/rookie card is the best option all things being somewhat equal.

1) I don't think that, all things considered, the euroleague luka is one of his most desirable rookies. It may be "valuable" in dollar terms but less desirable than most other stuff. The euroleague "rainbow" psa 10 has about a 1.5x multiplier vs a regular psa 10 silver prizm and my guess is that they printed WAY less of the UD.

2) Luka card prices were pretty depressed coming into the NBA, he had nowhere near the hype that Wemby does. You're starting at such a ridiculous level already for Wemby, he's basically already priced as if he's the GOAT

3) Luka benefitted greatly from the covid boom, the opposite is true for Wemby where money is only coming out of the market now and for the forseeable future

[cms11]

Originally Posted by Cardsandcoffee

Thanks for the opinion. Definitely am looking more for personal enjoyment but I would be lying if I’d say that future value doesn’t play a part, as his cards aren’t cheap.

Curious as to why this situation doesn’t more closely correlate to the Luka Upper Deck Euroleague auto card for you? From my understanding, that card is still highly popular and that’s WITH Luka having licensed RC auto in a Mavs jersey. From the looks of it, Wembanyama won’t have a licensed RC auto at all so it will help the BCU option (as well as his Best and Inception versions). Maybe it’s because of my baseball focus but I was under the assumption that an auto prospect/rookie card is the best option all things being somewhat equal.

As long as he's good, the BCU auto will remain a valuable card for the reasons you mention. His first autos in a Spurs jersey will be worth more even those they aren't RC's, that just how collectors are. Also, I don't think it's a great long-term investment at these prices (~2k) since he's an injury away from his card values being crushed.

[Cardsandcoffee]

Good thoughts from the both of you. Didn’t know about the popularity of the Euroleague Luka but I could see past sales were nothing to sniff at.

So do we think that his first Fanatics licensed Spurs auto will be worth more than his prospect auto, even as a 3-4 year card? That’s wild. Good to know.

Ive been watching more basketball lately and Wemby has been really fun to watch. I agree he’s so thin it’s a little crazy but watching Giannis try and back him up and out muscle him for a basket and get denied… that made me really like him more.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Cardsandcoffee

Good thoughts from the both of you. Didn’t know about the popularity of the Euroleague Luka but I could see past sales were nothing to sniff at.

So do we think that his first Fanatics licensed Spurs auto will be worth more than his prospect auto, even as a 3-4 year card? That’s wild. Good to know.

Ive been watching more basketball lately and Wemby has been really fun to watch. I agree he’s so thin it’s a little crazy but watching Giannis try and back him up and out muscle him for a basket and get denied… that made me really like him more.

I don't think anyone will consider that BCU his rookie card

[Cardsandcoffee]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

I don't think anyone will consider that BCU his rookie card

Yup I understand, that’s why I called it a prospect auto. However I am appreciative of the clarification

[yiguiri2002]

When it comes to Luka, his Euroleague card came from an official Euroleague release where he had just won the title and MVP.

Wemby didn't even play Euroleague last season, I don't know how exactly they got the license for the card but my guess is either a deal with the team or league (most likely team).

Don't think it's a huge difference but it adds to the gap IMO

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Cardsandcoffee

Yup I understand, that’s why I called it a prospect auto

my brain just read rookie...

I think most low end autos will be close in price.

at a high level it seems that regardless of the low end brand autos are pretty close in price for each player

[jcardstore]

I can say I am 100% confident that BCU auto will be worth less in 1 year than it is today, and less than that in 2 years, etc...

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

I can say I am 100% confident that BCU auto will be worth less in 1 year than it is today, and less than that in 2 years, etc...

Do you think it will fall more or less than the average Wemby go-to rookie? I'm not talking about on release prices, but say whatever the price is in the offseason...does this lose more value in 2 years that his Silver Prizm or Holo?

[Bcr]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

I can say I am 100% confident that BCU auto will be worth less in 1 year than it is today, and less than that in 2 years, etc...

As with most cards...

It will be his most important Auto in the long run IMO. I'd take that over whatever his fist Spurs Auto card is.

[Cardsandcoffee]

I guess I should look for a BCU auto at a great price and/or wait for Prizm hobby to drop and the low#d parallels to trickle out. Thought the BCU would get more support as that was my personal fav. However that’s likely influenced by my baseball experiences. How much are we guessing it drops to before stabilizing, a year or two from now?

The Prizm photo just is so bad lol Suppose I’ll have to bite that bullet eventually

[Cardsandcoffee]

Originally Posted by Bcr

As with most cards...

It will be his most important Auto in the long run IMO. I'd take that over whatever his fist Spurs Auto card is.

This was my take too. I don’t put much stock in any influencers but for what it’s worth, I have seen some begin to change their mind on the matter and advocate the BCU auto. Such a weird period for Wembanyama collectors

[Bcr]

Originally Posted by Cardsandcoffee

I guess I should look for a BCU auto at a great price and/or wait for Prizm hobby to drop and the low#d parallels to trickle out. Thought the BCU would get more support as that was my personal fav. However that’s likely influenced by my baseball experiences. How much are we guessing it drops to before stabilizing, a year or two from now?

The Prizm photo just is so bad lol Suppose I’ll have to bite that bullet eventually

The hype is already priced in with most of his cards. The best time to buy is usually in the off-season, but his performance/health is going to be a big factor in the long run.

[yiguiri2002]

If you guys feel this way, I would say go buy one in the offseason or early next season. Wait until all the Wemby stuff floods the market, then prices will drop.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

Do you think it will fall more or less than the average Wemby go-to rookie? I'm not talking about on release prices, but say whatever the price is in the offseason...does this lose more value in 2 years that his Silver Prizm or Holo?

I think that they will be about the same as the other stuff. It just seems that all low end autos regardless of product hover around the sameish value.

[90skid]

Don't buy anything right now. Just wait it out. They are so ridiculously hyped and inflated and you know what - they will ALWAYS be up for sale. Like others have said, offseason and/or future performance, he's pretty much been setup for an impossible level of performance given the prices of these cards "currently". Not worth it.

[Cardsandcoffee]

Originally Posted by 90skid

Don't buy anything right now. Just wait it out. They are so ridiculously hyped and inflated and you know what - they will ALWAYS be up for sale. Like others have said, offseason and/or future performance, he's pretty much been setup for an impossible level of performance given the prices of these cards "currently". Not worth it.

This was why I was asking if anyone knew about print runs on the BCU - to see the amount out there. I’m assuming a lot of the product has been broken already in chase of it.

Also, to play Devils Advocate, I’m guessing a lot of people felt the same way about LeBron when he came out. I know a lot of folks felt that way about Bryce Harper and he’s turned out hobby great.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Cardsandcoffee

This was why I was asking if anyone knew about print runs on the BCU - to see the amount out there. I’m assuming a lot of the product has been broken already in chase of it.

Also, to play Devils Advocate, I’m guessing a lot of people felt the same way about LeBron when he came out. I know a lot of folks felt that way about Bryce Harper and he’s turned out hobby great.

covid totally distorted prices, comparing prices of stuff now to pre-covid levels is an exercise in futility

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by Cardsandcoffee

This was why I was asking if anyone knew about print runs on the BCU - to see the amount out there. I’m assuming a lot of the product has been broken already in chase of it.

Also, to play Devils Advocate, I’m guessing a lot of people felt the same way about LeBron when he came out. I know a lot of folks felt that way about Bryce Harper and he’s turned out hobby great.

Your logic is flawed because Wemby is going to have 50X the amount of rookies bryce harper had and 100X the amount lebron had

[Cardsandcoffee]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

Your logic is flawed because Wemby is going to have 50X the amount of rookies bryce harper had and 100X the amount lebron had

Not going to argue that point because it was just an exercise in thought but there are several factors that we won’t know until later, including what the actual print run and variety of rookies that are coming this year for Wembanyama , collector base of the hobby in the future, among other things.
Maybe Panini goes belly-up and can’t print anymore, maybe the hobby collector base does actually 10x in size.
Regardless it was more to point out that I’m sure there were a number of people when LeBron rookies came out thinking, “there’s no way this kid will be good as hyped, there’s way more rookies than there were of <insert player name here>” and then he actually did live up to the hype. That’s all. Not trying to any definitive comparisons in card value as as previously stated, Covid has made that difficult to do

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

Your logic is flawed because Wemby is going to have 50X the amount of rookies bryce harper had and 100X the amount lebron had

What do you think the market cap for LeBron's rookie autos (including RPAs) is?

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

What do you think the market cap for LeBron's rookie autos (including RPAs) is?

dollar wise? probably like a billion or so but that is just a wild guess