My observations of Topps Inception and the State of the Hobby

[952melvin]

My son and I started in 2018 or so collecting the Twins from Inception, mostly focusing on the base rainbow. It was a fun project and we did a few breaks until the price of the boxes went up. Even at the low price, I'd do one break with him and then we'd just buy the singles we wanted. That one break I'd do at $60 or whatever it started at and now it's up to $150, so price has almost tripled.

One thing I found trying to buy the singles, it was hard to get the singles and when I did find them people wanted way more than what they'd sell for in auction or worth, I'd assume trying to recoup the $150 a box price when you generally get a auto/material card worth less than $50. That was also one part I found was nice, I got a lot of the auto material cards for $20 or less and even autos for under $5 for him. I guess the main takeaway for me was, there was absolutely no worth in buying the boxes or breaks, it was cheaper and easier to wait for the singles to show up.

One curious thing about inception, you can actually track production of the product due to their being odds for the base inception 1/1. So here is the production based off their 1/1 base odds. Keep in mind, Inception has always had a 100 card base set, until this year when they increased it to 125.

2023 - 1:718 = 89,750 packs (Topps Increased base to 125 cards) ($150)
2022 - 1:852 = 85,200 packs ($150)
2021 - 1:699 = 69,900 packs ($139.99)
2020 - 1:607 = 60,700 packs
2019 - 1:548 = 54,800 packs ($60)
2018 - 1:519 = 51,900 packs
2017 - 1:421 = 42,100 packs

So what we can deduce from this, production has over doubled and the price has gone up 2.5x. It was a stretch for value at $60 and at $100 it was well over priced with most case hits not even returning the price of one box. At $150 a box you're searching for a key rookie parallel of a jumbo RPA.

Now based on that, the material in the set is all "player worn memorabilia" except for a game used base this year from a key event. I even found a Corbin Carrol jumbo hat RPA /5, the two top solds for 2023, they have the same exact patch so multiple hats used. The material used isn't even game used, just a large scale production.

[oldgoldy97]

Sorry, I just read your screen name and started to sing “952…Melvin Mysterio!” in my head.

[mikejones]

Originally Posted by 952melvin

My son and I started in 2018 or so collecting the Twins from Inception, mostly focusing on the base rainbow. It was a fun project and we did a few breaks until the price of the boxes went up. Even at the low price, I'd do one break with him and then we'd just buy the singles we wanted. That one break I'd do at $60 or whatever it started at and now it's up to $150, so price has almost tripled.

One thing I found trying to buy the singles, it was hard to get the singles and when I did find them people wanted way more than what they'd sell for in auction or worth, I'd assume trying to recoup the $150 a box price when you generally get a auto/material card worth less than $50. That was also one part I found was nice, I got a lot of the auto material cards for $20 or less and even autos for under $5 for him. I guess the main takeaway for me was, there was absolutely no worth in buying the boxes or breaks, it was cheaper and easier to wait for the singles to show up.

One curious thing about inception, you can actually track production of the product due to their being odds for the base inception 1/1. So here is the production based off their 1/1 base odds. Keep in mind, Inception has always had a 100 card base set, until this year when they increased it to 125.

2023 - 1:718 = 89,750 packs (Topps Increased base to 125 cards) ($150)
2022 - 1:852 = 85,200 packs ($150)
2021 - 1:699 = 69,900 packs ($139.99)
2020 - 1:607 = 60,700 packs
2019 - 1:548 = 54,800 packs ($60)
2018 - 1:519 = 51,900 packs
2017 - 1:421 = 42,100 packs

So what we can deduce from this, production has over doubled and the price has gone up 2.5x. It was a stretch for value at $60 and at $100 it was well over priced with most case hits not even returning the price of one box. At $150 a box you're searching for a key rookie parallel of a jumbo RPA.

Now based on that, the material in the set is all "player worn memorabilia" except for a game used base this year from a key event. I even found a Corbin Carrol jumbo hat RPA /5, the two top solds for 2023, they have the same exact patch so multiple hats used. The material used isn't even game used, just a large scale production.

It's just not inception, it's all baseball products....

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by 952melvin

My son and I started in 2018 or so collecting the Twins from Inception, mostly focusing on the base rainbow. It was a fun project and we did a few breaks until the price of the boxes went up. Even at the low price, I'd do one break with him and then we'd just buy the singles we wanted. That one break I'd do at $60 or whatever it started at and now it's up to $150, so price has almost tripled.

One thing I found trying to buy the singles, it was hard to get the singles and when I did find them people wanted way more than what they'd sell for in auction or worth, I'd assume trying to recoup the $150 a box price when you generally get a auto/material card worth less than $50. That was also one part I found was nice, I got a lot of the auto material cards for $20 or less and even autos for under $5 for him. I guess the main takeaway for me was, there was absolutely no worth in buying the boxes or breaks, it was cheaper and easier to wait for the singles to show up.

One curious thing about inception, you can actually track production of the product due to their being odds for the base inception 1/1. So here is the production based off their 1/1 base odds. Keep in mind, Inception has always had a 100 card base set, until this year when they increased it to 125.

2023 - 1:718 = 89,750 packs (Topps Increased base to 125 cards) ($150)
2022 - 1:852 = 85,200 packs ($150)
2021 - 1:699 = 69,900 packs ($139.99)
2020 - 1:607 = 60,700 packs
2019 - 1:548 = 54,800 packs ($60)
2018 - 1:519 = 51,900 packs
2017 - 1:421 = 42,100 packs

So what we can deduce from this, production has over doubled and the price has gone up 2.5x. It was a stretch for value at $60 and at $100 it was well over priced with most case hits not even returning the price of one box. At $150 a box you're searching for a key rookie parallel of a jumbo RPA.

Now based on that, the material in the set is all "player worn memorabilia" except for a game used base this year from a key event. I even found a Corbin Carrol jumbo hat RPA /5, the two top solds for 2023, they have the same exact patch so multiple hats used. The material used isn't even game used, just a large scale production.

Good analysis here, thanks for posting.


Yet another reason why I have shifted my unopened buying to older products, modern is just being over printed and diluted.

[952melvin]

Originally Posted by mikejones

It's just not inception, it's all baseball products....

Oh for sure, 100%, but you can track the ongoing nonsense through actual total production with Inception due to the Inception 1/1's having odds.

[Bcr]

I can't imagine trying to complete a rainbow with the amount of parallels they are pumping out these days.

[952melvin]

Originally Posted by Bcr

I can't imagine trying to complete a rainbow with the amount of parallels they are pumping out these days.

We started rainbows in 2019 for Inception and Gypsy Queen for Twins. I stopped after 2020 with the GQ because it is just insane. I did nothing under /50 for either set and all told we have a full Twins base and Chrome Rainbow from the 2019 GQ minis the Addison Reed Indigo. I'm assuming one person buys them all and I haven't seen one in forever in the solds.

Inception hasn't been terrible for the Twins to team collect.

[boxbuster7]

so they raised the price and lowered the quality and people are still buying?

[952melvin]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

so they raised the price and lowered the quality and people are still buying?

I guess so, but also if its any indication on it, the solds for complete boxes on ebay for auction are less than retail price of $150.

[hermanotarjeta]

Are people just now realizing the artificial scarcity marketing concept? They’ve been doing this for almost thirty years now.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Are people just now realizing the artificial scarcity marketing concept? They’ve been doing this for almost thirty years now.

Shhh! Many more people than just Topps profit from this concept and they work hard to keep it secret, especially to newbies

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

Shhh! Many more people than just Topps profit from this concept and they work hard to keep it secret, especially to newbies

I was told during the pandemic that it was just “inflation” and to “adapt to the times or die off”.

Where did those guys go?

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

I was told during the pandemic that it was just “inflation” and to “adapt to the times or die off”.

Where did those guys go?

They’re mostly all still here, I still see them and like calling them out. They’re quiet now either because: 1) they know people will see through them if they tried using the same crap lines; or 2) they’re pretending to be regular collectors now and not flippers to gain collector trust.

Should’ve made a list of them during the pandemic, although it’s possible to go through old threads now to find ‘em.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

They’re mostly all still here, I still see them and like calling them out. They’re quiet now either because: 1) they know people will see through them if they tried using the same crap lines; or 2) they’re pretending to be regular collectors now and not flippers to gain collector trust.

Should’ve made a list of them during the pandemic, although it’s possible to go through old threads now to find ‘em.

I’m glad they are still around. They always told me “it’s easy to make money in this hobby” as long as you “do your research and are smart enough to find the good values.”

There are geniuses living amongst us here and we don’t even know it.

[952melvin]

It was kind of hard to sit around and listen to that crap knowing one, many were new as in a few years or less to the hobby and or they were profiting off of the madness.

I've collected since 1996, I've been around for the crashes and know the history. Easy to see the trends and disregard those opinions that are ignorant of the history.

I also collect, I don't sell.

[hermanotarjeta]

There is a reason we call this product “topps deception” locally.

[952melvin]

An update since I haven't touched this in a few years, I researched and got better MSRP pricing across the board:

Topps Inception Baseball: Production and Cost Trends (2017–2024)

The table below summarizes the production of total packs (one pack per box) and Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) for Topps Inception Baseball from 2017 to 2024, based on available data. The base set size is 125 cards for 2023 and 2024, and 100 cards for 2017 to 2022. Total production is calculated using the odds of pulling a Base Inception 1/1 card, which Topps provides and is reflected in the table below.

2024 - 125 cards - 1:954 = 119,250 packs - +29,500 packs (+32.9% production increase) ($220*)
2023 - 125 cards - 1:718 = 89,750 packs - +4,550 packs (+5.3% production increase) (Topps Increased base to 125 cards) ($199)
2022 - 100 cards - 1:852 = 85,200 packs - +15,300 packs (+21.9% production increase) ($199)
2021 - 100 cards - 1:699 = 69,900 packs - +9,200 packs (+15.2% production increase) ($150)
2020 - 100 cards - 1:607 = 60,700 packs - +5,900 packs (+10.8% production increase) ($120)
2019 - 100 cards - 1:548 = 54,800 packs - +2,900 packs (+5.6% production increase) ($120)
2018 - 100 cards - 1:519 = 51,900 packs - +9,800 packs (+23.3% production increase) ($75)
2017 - 100 cards - 1:421 = 42,100 packs ($69)



Production Increase:
From 2017 to 2024, production increased significantly, from 42,100 packs to 119,250 packs—a 183% increase (2.83 times the 2017 production).

The largest year-over-year production increase occurred between 2023 (89,750 packs) and 2024 (119,250 packs), a jump of 29,500 packs (+32.9%). This is followed by the 2021-to-2022 increase of 15,300 packs (+21.9%).

In 2024, production was 7,050 packs short of tripling the 2017 output, indicating a continued trend of increasing print runs.

Cost Increase:
The MSRP rose from $69 in 2017 to $220 in 2024—a 219% increase (3.19 times the 2017 price).

The most significant price jumps occurred between 2018 ($75) and 2019 ($120, 60% increase) and between 2021 ($150) and 2022 ($199, 33% increase).

Secondary market prices for 2024 boxes range from $240 to $399, representing a 3.5x to 5.8x increase over the 2017 MSRP, driven by high demand by resellers and breakers causing the product to sell out in 2 minutes on Topps’ website.

Production vs. Cost:
From 2017 to 2022, production doubled (42,100 to 85,200 packs), while the MSRP increased 2.9x ($69 to $199), suggesting cost increases outpaced production growth.

By 2024, production nearly tripled, but secondary market prices (up to $399) indicate that demand and scarcity due to rapid sell-outs with heavy reselling by secondary retailers and breakers are inflating costs beyond MSRP.

Collector Concerns:
The rapid sell-out of 2024 boxes and high secondary market prices raise concerns about accessibility for collectors.

There’s a risk of box tampering by resellers (e.g., weighing boxes to find case hits or CT scanning), which could reduce value for buyers purchasing from secondary sources. This could also be evident by a large amount of listings of the total product 1/1 key card hits being for sale on eBay already.

Conclusion
The Topps Inception Baseball set has seen a near-tripling of production from 2017 to 2024, with a corresponding 3.2x increase in MSRP. However, secondary market prices for 2024 (up to 5.8x the 2017 MSRP) highlight a supply-demand imbalance, exacerbated by rapid sell-outs and potential reseller manipulation.

[hermanotarjeta]

On the trail to 10x !!!!!!!!

[fabiani12333]

I don't get the appeal of Inception -- it's like a poor-man's Impeccable.

Just more product for breakers to churn, I guess.

[StateEx]

Originally Posted by 952melvin

Conclusion
The Topps Inception Baseball set has seen a near-tripling of production from 2017 to 2024, with a corresponding 3.2x increase in MSRP. However, secondary market prices for 2024 (up to 5.8x the 2017 MSRP) highlight a supply-demand imbalance, exacerbated by rapid sell-outs and potential reseller manipulation.

These kind of metrics are both (a) great to have and (b) should be carefully reviewed by anyone who's collecting for profit more than fun. It's not a recipe for long term value.

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

On the trail to 10x !!!!!!!!