Luminance Mystery Redemptions - Pulled Card #2

[amg2002]

Sorry if this has been discussed - can't find it when I search.

I pulled Mystery Redemption #2 - Mystery Rookie Luminance Vertical

Questions:

Are these autos? I have seen listings for these that say auto and some that do not.

Better to sell the redemption card or hold not knowing who it is?

When will the mystery names be released?

I honestly wouldn't put much thought into it if it were a different number. Jayden Daniels is the 2nd RC in the rookies part of the set and many are listed as possible Daniels as well.

Thanks for your thoughts!

[jplarson]

If you like reading, here's the announcement from Panini - https://www.paniniamerica.net/blog/i...ption-program/

If you prefer listening/watching, here's a good discussion on it - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3ZZZb5u0AE

[amg2002]

Originally Posted by jplarson

If you like reading, here's the announcement from Panini - https://www.paniniamerica.net/blog/i...ption-program/

If you prefer listening/watching, here's a good discussion on it - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3ZZZb5u0AE

Thanks for the link.

After listening, I am even more confused. Mystery #2, like I have, is selling for $130 on average. If what the video says is somewhat true, this redemption could be for a late round rookie base card of a middle linebacker. It leads me to believe that many of these redemptions will be of very little value...but they sell so well!

[jplarson]

Originally Posted by amg2002

Thanks for the link.

After listening, I am even more confused. Mystery #2, like I have, is selling for $130 on average. If what the video says is somewhat true, this redemption could be for a late round rookie base card of a middle linebacker. It leads me to believe that many of these redemptions will be of very little value...but they sell so well!

You're welcome! Also true, it could be for a late round unheralded guy who balled out. I'm of the opinion that this program will give a redemption card to rookies who fell through the cracks and were not included in the base set. I don't think there would be a second Jayden Daniels for example.

Imagine back in 1999, the 6 rookies could be Olandis Gary, Terrence Wilkins, Mike Peterson, Kurt Warner, Jeff Garcia, and let's say Fernando Bryant.

Or look to 2023 Score. Puka Nacua would most likely be the Mystery Rookie 1. Might also have Tommy DeVito, Darnell Wright, Byron Young, Demario Douglas, Ivan Pace, or Jaleel McLaughlin. Guys who weren't in the 2023 Score checklist but in retrospect would have been easy adds.

[jplarson]

With a quarter of the season gone I was curious to see how things might be taking shape for these 6 mystery rookie redemptions. These are 6 rookies who do not have a card in the 2024 Score base set.

Here's the way too much time I spent putting something together. Nothing is official yet, it's all conjecture. Hopefully some of the rookie defenders make some big plays and separate themselves from the field. I imagine the breakdown will be something like 3 offensive guys, 2 defensive guys, and 1 special teamer.


Potential Mystery Rookie Locks
--Caleb Williams, Bears QB, 1-1 | The first overall pick seems to be a no-brainer to have as a mystery rookie. He's behind WAS QB Daniels as the top rookie passer and in a league that loves quarterbacks it is time to add the lone missing 1st round QB from the 2024 draft class.
--Bucky Irving, Buccaneers RB, 4-125 | In a 50/50 timeshare with Rachaad White. Has 44-247-1 rushing and 8-46-0 receiving. As of right now the top rookie RB.


My watch list:
Jordan Whittington, Rams WR 6-37? | With Kupp and Nacua out, he's racking up targets. At 18-201-0 on the season after beginning the first three games with only 5 targets. Top stat grabbing rookie WR who isn't in the Score checklist. If the injuries persist to the Rams starters, he's going to be a shoe-in to fill one of the mystery slots.

Will Reichard, Vikings PK, 6-203 | Reichard, Brayden Narveson, Cam Little, and Joshua Karty are all rookie kickers and it's likely one of them makes it as one of the six Mystery rookies. Right now Reichard has a perfect FG% and XP% on the 5-0 Vikings making him the logical choice at this point.

Tykee Smith, Buccaneers S, 3-89 | This day 2 pick has appeared in all 5 games with 2 starts and has 28 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 1 QB hit, 2 passes defended, and a forced fumble. You know Panini is going to include a couple defensive players and so far Smith is a good representative that was missed off the initial checklist.

Jha'Quan Jackson, Titans WR, 6-182 | While Jackson hasn't made a catch yet, he is the Titans primary kick and punt returner where he ranks second in punt return yards with 131 and fourth in kick return yards at 241. It doesn't hurt that he's the nephew of Ed Reed.

Tyrone Tracy, Giants RB, 5-166 | Ran for 129 yards on 18 carries Week 5. Could force a timeshare or outright take the job.

Ricky Pearsall, 49ers WR, 1-31 | The 49ers are woefully underrepresented for 2024 Score rookies and along with Caleb Williams Pearsall is one of two skill position players from the 1st round who don't have cards on the checklist. If he can make it back and work his way into San Francisco's rotation he's likely in.

Isaac Guerendo, 49ers RB, 4-129 | Similar to Pearsall, the 49ers are likely to get at least one rookie here. If CMC continues to miss time and Jordan Mason gets hurt, Guerendo will be the next guy up in an offense that makes all running backs look great.

Jaylen Wright, Dolphins RB, 4-120 | Like Tracy, Wright made some noise with 86 yards on 13 attempts. With Achane and Mostert in front of him and a tough passing game, he'll be hard pressed to acumulate numbers.

AJ Barner, Seahawks TE, 4-121 | Has put up a modest 6-53-1 statline over the last 3 games.

Ben Sinnott, Commanders TE, 2-53 | One of the few skill position guys from rounds 1 and 2 not committed to cardboard. Sinnott is buried on the depth chart.

Jared Wiley, Chiefs TE, 4-131 | Only has 1 catch on the season but if Kelce goes down he may get more looks in 2TE sets and rack up catches in a hurry in this offense.

It's sometimes tough to know which offensive lineman are producing without some advanced analytics but it's odds are if an offensive lineman is going to make the list it'll be a 1st or 2nd rounder who was left off the 100-rookie checklist and is playing for a good team.

Jordan Morgan, Packers OT, 1-25
Graham Barton, Buccaneers OC, 1-26
Zach Frazier, Steelers OC, 2-51
Patrick Paul, Dolphins OT, 2-55
Blake Fisher, Texans OT, 2-59
Roger Rosengarten, Ravens OT, 2-62

These are the remaining second rounders who have some name or team recognition that could edge their way in to the top 6 mystery rookies.

Jer'Zhan Newton, Commanders DT, 2-36
T'Vondre Sweat, Titans DT, 2-38
Mike Sainristil, Commanders CB, 2-50
Marshawn Kneeland, Cowboys DE, 2-56
Chris Braswell, Buccaneers DE, 2-57
Renardo Green, 49ers CB, 2-64

UDFAs and wild guesses

Joe Milton, Patriots QB, 6-193 | Stranger things have happened but if Brissett and Maye go down Milton will have a chance to state his case.

[abovethesink]

I pullled the same redemption. I wonder how common these are. I also pulled a JJ McCarthy on card auto, so not a bad box.

[brianaz29]

Curious if anyone has heard any more info on these mystery redemptions? I got a box recently and also got the #2 (vivid parallel to /10).

Based on Panini's original post of: "These will be six-card inserts that will be found within various Panini programs, including Score, Luminance, Origins, Elite and Gold Standard. As for what exactly these inserts entail, allow us to give you a brief rundown of what you can expect from them. The redemptions will mainly be for Base Rookie Cards, selected RC parallels and other rare inserts within their respective releases.

What rookies will be a part of this new collection? Well, we don’t know yet! While that may sound odd, these rookies will be decided as the season goes on. Much like the real-life grind of the regular season, first-year players from all backgrounds emerge, with some late-round gems quickly turning into prized players among collectors. As the season unfolds, we will select these budding stars for the redemption inserts that don’t already have cards in those programs."

For Luminance, if it is a an insert series there is only 1 rookie insert set, which is a 15 card set that includes:
1 Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
2 Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals
3 Drake Maye, New England Patriots
4 Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons
5 Jordan Travis, New York Jets
6 Adonai Mitchell, Indianapolis Colts
7 Malik Nabers, New York Giants
8 Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
9 Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills
10 Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears
11 Troy Franklin, Denver Broncos
12 J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings
13 Audric Estime, Denver Broncos
14 Blake Corum, Los Angeles Rams
15 Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints

If that ends up being the insert set it seems like some of the no-brainers would be Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, Brock Brock at the minimum. Assuming they just don't do random base rookies of players (which I hope they don't).

What I think would be really cool is if for the mystery cards they did 6 rookies for the Animation SSP set (currently only vets). I think that would add an extra chase to it and maybe make these mystery cards more of a chase in the future. Being 6 cards they could hit all 6 of the early quarterbacks (williams, daniels, nix, mccarthy, penix, and maye), which would be pretty sweet.

[slyguy]

Sell it... a good number of 2024 redemptions probably won't come through (especially autos).

Panini is losing both NFL and NBA licenses, real chance at the company being drastically different even 6mo from now... or even folding.

They have no real reason not to overprint or do a terrible job with redemptions on 2024 NFL and 2024-25 nba stuff.

[brianaz29]

Originally Posted by slyguy

Sell it... a good number of 2024 redemptions probably won't come through (especially autos).

Panini is losing both NFL and NBA licenses, real chance at the company being drastically different even 6mo from now... or even folding.

They have no real reason not to overprint or do a terrible job with redemptions on 2024 NFL and 2024-25 nba stuff.

Your advice is certainly the best business decision...

That said, it's also the least fun, so I've already redeemed it haha.

It doesn't seem like the redemptions have to be autos, and it being to /10 adds some good risk/reward. I also hit a Penix Jr. auto to /10 in the same box, so I feel like I'm playing with house money a little. Hopefully it's something cool, but if not it's still fun anticipating what it can be. I'm sticking with my hope of Animation rookie set, #2 card, #2 pick Jayden Daniels haha.

[slyguy]

Originally Posted by brianaz29

... Hopefully it's something cool, but if not it's still fun anticipating what it can be. I'm sticking with my hope of Animation rookie set, #2 card, #2 pick Jayden Daniels haha.

It can't be. Jayden Daniels is in the set; he's on the checklists.
It says right from Panini link @jplarson gave you above: "...we will select these budding stars for the redemption inserts that don’t already have cards in those programs."

"Mystery rookie" redemptions are a player not in the set list... not signed at print time or left off for whatever reason (2024 "mystery" usually Caleb or a scrub, or Marv Jr for some sets - not Lumi tho... he was signed for that).

Try it if you want. It's a risk. I'd let someone else gamble. You could end up high and dry (or with just waiting a year, get panini points with little/nothing good to spend on).
I got an email today that one of my 2024 Absolute glass redemptions Marv Jr sent (but that's not an auto).
Redemption for Panini autos could get very sketchy with Panini and NFLPA and etc licensing changes, though. GL