Best Bet for SuperBowl LIX Chief Eagles

[slyguy]

What's the best major bet on the Superbowl this year:

KC -1.5pts
Phi +1.5pts
Over 49.5pts
Under 49.5pts

For me, I didn't touch the teams since I had futures.
I got under when it was 50.5, so I think the trend tells us something.

The game has a reasonable overtime possibility, though (which usually means the over wins). A few of KC's recent AFC title games and the SB last year were overtime.

What's the best [major] bet for the 2024 title game?

[SleeperCards]

I'd go KC and Over. If I put $1000 on that what would my return be?

[slyguy]

Originally Posted by SleeperCards

I'd go KC and Over. If I put $1000 on that what would my return be?

2 team parlay (-110) is usually 2.6x money win (plus orig back), so $100 would be win $260 (total $360 with orig $100 back).

For KC moneyline (-125) parlay with over... probably 2.2x ish?

So $1k KC spread + over = 2.6k and 1k back.
$1k KC moneyline + over = probably 2.2k and the $1k back.

[slyguy]

Way more interest and bet action on the AFC champ Bills@KC game than the SB rematch of a couple years ago, I guess.

Most of my close personal buds are taking the under (we all predict Phila should win, but scary to bet against KC).

[Fenway55]

The line has shifted from 1.5 to 1, so someone is taking Philly. However, a half-point shift over 10 days is pretty minor, so it seems the KC/PHI bets are mostly in equilibrium.

[gomiamigo]

ML money is coming in on Eagles, could close at even.

[The Accountant]

I like the eagles alt spread, shooting for 2.5 alt, covering a field goal. But I'm going to throw a riskier one on my account too

[SleeperCards]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

ML money is coming in on Eagles, could close at even.

So theoretically if I waited to place a bet on KC I'd have a higher return?

[JWBlue]

Originally Posted by SleeperCards

So theoretically if I waited to place a bet on KC I'd have a higher return?

Yes.

BUT...it doesn't necessarily mean waiting to the last minute is a good idea for a Chiefs bettor. If sharps (bettors considered good) come in late to bet the Chiefs that line could jump and the return will be worse than it is now. IMO I think this is likely to happen.

I am seeing -115 to win or -1 (-105) right now. I think sharps will jump in on Saturday at the earliest. If I was betting on the Chiefs I would wait until Friday at the latest.

[SleeperCards]

Originally Posted by JWBlue

Yes.

BUT...it doesn't necessarily mean waiting to the last minute is a good idea for a Chiefs bettor. If sharps (bettors considered good) come in late to bet the Chiefs that line could jump and the return will be worse than it is now. IMO I think this is likely to happen.

I am seeing -115 to win or -1 (-105) right now. I think sharps will jump in on Saturday at the earliest. If I was betting on the Chiefs I would wait until Friday at the latest.

I know it's one game and anything can happen, but it's crazy to me people are literally betting money against the Chiefs. I suppose not everyone has watched every game of Patty's career, but I feel anyone who has would not make that bet.

[Siberian13]

What are the current odds the refs make a bad call late in the game and everyone starts crying/whining/complaining? I got money to waste!

[JWBlue]

Originally Posted by SleeperCards

I know it's one game and anything can happen, but it's crazy to me people are literally betting money against the Chiefs. I suppose not everyone has watched every game of Patty's career, but I feel anyone who has would not make that bet.

I am confident in the Chiefs winning. The public is usually wrong.

Here are the betting trends which show most of the money is coming in on the Eagles.

Usually, when the the public is betting heavily on an underdog that side loses.

John Murray, executive director at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, told ESPN the Eagles could end up being the betting favorite by kickoff.

“The consensus opinion in our risk room is that Philly will go off favored. Call it an educated guess,” he said. “We have been wrong about that before and could be wrong this time, but we think the Eagles will get there over the course of this week.”

https://www.nationalfootballpost.com...etting-report/

[Siberian13]

Originally Posted by JWBlue

I am confident in the Chiefs winning. The public is usually wrong.

Here are the betting trends which show most of the money is coming in on the Eagles.

Usually, when the the public is betting heavily on an underdog that side loses.




https://www.nationalfootballpost.com...etting-report/

Can it all change before the game with money coming in on the chiefs?

[carlo16]

2PT Conversion +275

[JWBlue]

Originally Posted by Siberian13

Can it all change before the game with money coming in on the chiefs?

Yes. If there are sharp bettors that like the Chiefs they will probably wait until this weekend to place their wagers. I am guessing if the Chiefs Moneyline hits even money they will jump on that. When that happens the Chiefs spread could jump to -2 in an instant and the money line -115.

[Siberian13]

Originally Posted by JWBlue

Yes. If there are sharp bettors that like the Chiefs they will probably wait until this weekend to place their wagers. I am guessing if the Chiefs Moneyline hits even money they will jump on that. When that happens the Chiefs spread could jump to -2 in an instant and the money line -115.

Mattress Mack might throw down late on the chiefs.

[JWBlue]

Originally Posted by carlo16

2PT Conversion +275

Almost seems too good to be true.


MVP - Trent McDuffie +25000

[SleeperCards]

Originally Posted by carlo16

2PT Conversion +275

Oooo I want to add that to the parlay.

[JWBlue]

Patrick Mahomes is 15-0 in domed or closed roof stadiums.

MVP - George Karlaftis +10000

[slyguy]

MAJOR bets guys.

But yeah, I put some on "will there be overtime?" +900

[JWBlue]

Originally Posted by slyguy

MAJOR bets guys.

But yeah, I put some on "will there be overtime?" +900

Another good one. Should be a tight game.

[slyguy]

Originally Posted by SleeperCards

I know it's one game and anything can happen, but it's crazy to me people are literally betting money against the Chiefs. I suppose not everyone has watched every game of Patty's career, but I feel anyone who has would not make that bet.

Originally Posted by JWBlue

I am confident in the Chiefs winning. The public is usually wrong. ...

I agree it's wild to bet against KC given coach and QB, but people do what they want.

Remember that people often fall into gambler fallacy ("Chiefs have won a lot lately, so they're due for a loss"). Or maybe Chief are "due for bad ref calls"... Mahomes is "due for interceptions." Likewise, Saquon or Hurts "due for a win" ... whatever. People really do think that way (expect what hasn't happened lately, increase bets after losing)... ask any roulette or blackjack or craps dealer.

...Honestly, if it were midseason 2024 with Pacheco out, no Hollywood, no Hopkins, Xavier still looking like a lost rookie, Hunt not rolling... I would lean a bit to Phila (but probably still would stay away for betting). But the Chiefs are better than they were back early/mid season. They are closing out games regularly, run game and OL looking sharper... mainly, the pass catchers obviously more varied and more productive and getting open when they need to be.

[Fenway55]

Originally Posted by Siberian13

Can it all change before the game with money coming in on the chiefs?

I am not sure I understand your question, but the lines can change at any time. Obviously, people are locked into whatever line they got when they placed their bets (in football) but yes, the line could go up if money starts favoring the Chiefs.

A half point here or there is not a big deal, but it is a HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE deal to shift from 2.5 to 3 so even if enough money comes in to shift the line to 2.5 - which I consider unlikely - going any higher than that just isn't in the realm of possibility.

[Fenway55]

Originally Posted by slyguy

Remember that people often fall into gambler fallacy ("Chiefs have won a lot lately, so they're due for a loss").

That is not a fallacy in football (though I do not consider it something that applies in the playoffs or Super Bowl since only winners advance). Winning and losing in sports is not a random occurrence like black v. red on a roulette wheel.

The more a team wins, the higher point spread favorites they become. It doesn't take long for a team to be a higher favorite than they statistically deserve to be. Even the almighty Chiefs, who are 40-11 (in the regular season) over the past 3 years, who are going for an unprecedented 3rd consecutive SB championship this Sunday, have not covered more than 3 consecutive games at any point the past 3 regular seasons. Their overall record ATS is a mediocre 23-27-1.

[SleeperCards]

Originally Posted by Fenway55

Their overall record ATS is a mediocre 23-27-1.

That's on the bookies, not the Chiefs