Football card prices compared to baseball and basketball?

[Jeter1020]

Something I’ve noticed is that football card pricing compared to the two other major sports is so low.

When you think of basketball you have MJ, LeBron, Kobe and Curry. Those players rookies and even later year rarer cards have astronomical values

Same with baseball for Ohtani, Ruth and players of that caliber.

The only player I can think of that commands similar is Mahomes and Brady to some extent but not at the levels of the other sports.

Thoughts?


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[Derekbauer]

International buyer pool for basketball and baseball is much much higher compared to football.

[oldgoldy97]

Football has more room for market manipulation.

[JUNKWAX]

When I first came back to the hobby in 2012 my main focus was football. That changed around 2016 when the NFL started getting too heavily into politics and it pushed me away. When I talk to people at shows I hear alot of the same thing as well. When the NFL pushes people away it drives down demand for their products including sports cards. Nobody wants to collect players they refuse to even watch play a game.

Not saying thats the primary reason for low value rookies, but it doesnt help when you continue to try to push people away from your product with political statements. Look how much bad publicity the Buggs Bunny Super Bowl half time show got this year. Ruffling feathers is not the best way to keep viewers and sell products but the NFL keeps doubling down with it.

[KardsC1]

IMO yes, baseball and basketball have higher values because of a few things …one is, they both do have “additional” buyers (though limited) in other countries …the other is the fanbase are more “mature”…most guys collecting (not flipping) are older men who actually buy for their PC because they either have nostalgia or some affinity to that player …baseball and nba was huge in the 90s with more star power ….which translates to richer, more established buyers….now yes, guys like Ohtani and Luka have massive cards too due to “potential, investment” purposes …the newer guys are propped up in hopes of future $$….which imo is risky ….more and more people watch football than those two other sports in the US….and believe it or not, the majority of card collectors are here in the states….remember if card values are based on being international, soccer cards would be insane (yet that are not and I still think that trend will continue despite some pumpers hoping otherwise after the World Cup)….somehow they think after one World Cup here in the states is going to drive demand in soccer is comical to me


Future prices stem organically from younger generations…guest who they are watching , it’s nfl and it’s not even close …

[Jeter1020]

Originally Posted by KardsC1

IMO yes, baseball and basketball have higher values because of a few things …one is, they both do have “additional” buyers (though limited) in other countries …the other is the fanbase are more “mature”…most guys collecting (not flipping) are older men who actually buy for their PC because they either have nostalgia or some affinity to that player …baseball and nba was huge in the 90s with more star power ….which translates to richer, more established buyers….now yes, guys like Ohtani and Luka have massive cards too due to “potential, investment” purposes …the newer guys are propped up in hopes of future $$….which imo is risky ….more and more people watch football than those two other sports in the US….and believe it or not, the majority of card collectors are here in the states….remember if card values are based on being international, soccer cards would be insane (yet that are not and I still think that trend will continue despite some pumpers hoping otherwise after the World Cup)….somehow they think after one World Cup here in the states is going to drive demand in soccer is comical to me


Future prices stem organically from younger generations…guest who they are watching , it’s nfl and it’s not even close …

So you think in the future football will be the hobby favorite over baseball and basketball? I didn’t even think of international buyers for basketball and for baseball with Ohtani


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[KardsC1]

Yes…go look at card shows…kids are generally buying up more nfl vs the other sports..nfl ratings and nfl talk dominates mainstream

[Jeter1020]

Originally Posted by KardsC1

Yes…go look at card shows…kids are generally buying up more nfl vs the other sports..nfl ratings and nfl talk dominates mainstream

Well that’s why I originally asked. NFL dominates ratings but in the hobby it’s clearly behind basketball and baseball


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[Chris P]

Originally Posted by JUNKWAX

When I first came back to the hobby in 2012 my main focus was football. That changed around 2016 when the NFL started getting too heavily into politics and it pushed me away. When I talk to people at shows I hear alot of the same thing as well. When the NFL pushes people away it drives down demand for their products including sports cards. Nobody wants to collect players they refuse to even watch play a game.

Not saying thats the primary reason for low value rookies, but it doesnt help when you continue to try to push people away from your product with political statements. Look how much bad publicity the Buggs Bunny Super Bowl half time show got this year. Ruffling feathers is not the best way to keep viewers and sell products but the NFL keeps doubling down with it.

Yes..Bad Bunny is the reason football cards lag behind baseball and basketball

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by Jeter1020

Something I’ve noticed is that football card pricing compared to the two other major sports is so low.

When you think of basketball you have MJ, LeBron, Kobe and Curry. Those players rookies and even later year rarer cards have astronomical values

Same with baseball for Ohtani, Ruth and players of that caliber.

The only player I can think of that commands similar is Mahomes and Brady to some extent but not at the levels of the other sports.

Thoughts?


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I feel like the biggest problem off the bat is that the NFL and the media have conditioned most fans to view the QB position as the only position that matters. They get talked about the most, they are the ones that historically win MVP's the most..they are the ones that seem to get all the credit (or blame) for wins, losses and Super Bowls so naturally that bleeds into the Hobby and what people gravitate towards which leads to the rest of the positions neing viewed in a lesser light, especially defensive players, who for the most part get little hobby love and RB's which has become more and more of a committee position (with guys like CMC and Derrick Henry being more a rare outlier as far workhorses go) in combination with having shorter careers and peaks than the other offensive skill positions

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by Derekbauer

International buyer pool for basketball and baseball is much much higher compared to football.

Exactly. The rich asians/oil princes can obviously sway the high end market and low supply specific cards. Probably after getting FOMO'd out of their brains by insta/twitter, forums like blowout, and AHs pumping. But hey, just my opinion. And yeah, of course they don't really care about Football.

China loves basketball, so do arabic kids/countries from what I've seen, for some reason. Jordan/LeBron I guess. Japan/Korea + Mexico down to South America love baseball. None of these countries/cultures really care about NFL football. Correct.

[JosieD]

Maybe its because a major manufacturer was lost for several years and the alternatives were not as good. It took them way too long to realize people want nostalgic products. The products are overpriced for the value. Its easier to play for a much longer time at a higher level in baseball and basketball. They both have longer seasons which generate more interest over time. Its also way more affordable to attend a baseball game vs an NFL game. NBA they play 82 games and Baseball is 162 compared to 17 games for NFL.

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

Football has more room for market manipulation.

Tell me about it.

Originally Posted by Chris P

I feel like the biggest problem off the bat is that the NFL and the media have conditioned most fans to view the QB position as...

It's not some concerted effort or propaganda though. QB is that important. Toss cards aside completely, no one is talking about the GOAT of the sport being any other position besides QB. No other position wins MVP awards anymore. Since 2013 it's been a rate of 100% QBs. Since 2000, starting with Faulk winning it, there's been 4 RBs and 22 QBs to win the award I believe.

QB is king and it is what it is. It's not a grand conspiracy. The only candidates for GOAT are QBs at this point, where as in basketball and baseball there's many positions that qualify. Even beyond QB, there's no rub for other positions besides WR/RB really to be fair.

People pour their money into the highest upside prospect. That is a QB. No one is passing Brady-Montana-Manning-Marino-Mahomes-etc that isn't a QB, so there's no hype. There's no chance of 1000% returns, etc. A cycle that reinforces itself. People buy things (BTC, NFTs, Gold/Silver) because of price action and perceived value/gains. It's prospecting, it's speculation, it's gambling. What's the point of gambling on any other position besides QB?

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by Tea10

Tell me about it.



It's not some concerted effort or propaganda though. QB is that important. Toss cards aside completely, no one is talking about the GOAT of the sport being any other position besides QB. No other position wins MVP awards anymore. Since 2013 it's been a rate of 100% QBs. Since 2000, starting with Faulk winning it, there's been 4 RBs and 22 QBs to win the award I believe.

QB is king and it is what it is. It's not a grand conspiracy. The only candidates for GOAT are QBs at this point, where as in basketball and baseball there's many positions that qualify. Even beyond QB, there's no rub for other positions besides WR/RB really to be fair.

People pour their money into the highest upside prospect. That is a QB. No one is passing Brady-Montana-Manning-Marino-Mahomes-etc that isn't a QB, so there's no hype. There's no chance of 1000% returns, etc. A cycle that reinforces itself. People buy things (BTC, NFTs, Gold/Silver) because of price action and perceived value/gains. It's prospecting, it's speculation, it's gambling. What's the point of gambling on any other position besides QB?

I'm not saying it's a conspiracy and maybe I worded what I said wrong. Basically, my point was, QB's drive the league so that what's collectors/investors focus on whereas in other sports it's not such a narrow view

[nabzy28]

There are a lot of collectors who don't want anything to do with sticker autos and pieces of jerseys from other players, or a discount store closeout, in their collections. That's, basically, all NFL cards have had for a solid 7'ish years now. Freaking joke.

[Siberian13]

Not good when only one position gets all the love.

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by Chris P

I'm not saying it's a conspiracy and maybe I worded what I said wrong. Basically, my point was, QB's drive the league so that what's collectors/investors focus on whereas in other sports it's not such a narrow view

Fair enough, didn't fully mean it like you were going tinfoil. Correct, I agree on your take. QBs drive it. That's my point as well. There is no point in "investing" or buying up a card unless that player can become the GOAT or an all-time great. That's how it works now. Most people aren't collecting, they're speculating.

So you're right. Football is a sport where no one besides a QB can credibly compete for GOAT status or even all-time great status sort of. We're not listing off Brady-Montana-Rice-Mahomes-Moss-Marino on GOAT lists, no one does that really. Let alone talking about any position outside of WR/RB even sniffing the same air as QB. It is a problem, arguably.

[Scottish Punk]

Football cards always have the same problem. Careers are short, US centric, team is more important than players, marketing and hype is QB centric.

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

Football has more room for market manipulation.

blasphemy!

[REGGIE206]

I mainly collect baseball cards.. and occasionally, I’ll buy some basketball cards. Very rarely, I will buy football cards of my favorite players. Some of the reasons I stay away from football are the injuries. Football is such a brutal sport, so most players have short careers. I also dislike how quarterbacks seem to be in such hobby demand, even when the quarterback is not elite. Running backs come & go.. and so do wide receivers. 99% of defensive players get no hobby love. Unfortunately, the football hobby has a very short memory with players.. unless your name is Tom Brady.

[nabzy28]

Gotta also mention that there is near ZERO appreciation for a player, no matter the position - QB included. Every player is expected to be the next (Brady/Mahomes)(Barry Sanders/Ladainian Tomlinson)(Rice/Moss/Fitz/Megatron)... and so on. It's all expectation and hype immediately priced in and, in many cases, priced in before they even play. It's insane. The instant they get injured and miss a few games, their career is dead. I may be wrong here, but I don't see this in any other sport - at all or, if so, it's extremely rare. Justin Herbert hasn't broken every Mahomes/Brady record by the same point in his career? He's garbage. The Bills literally just blew up their entire coaching staff because the ownership views everything they've done with Josh Allen as a failure. This mindset is seen in football cards. I won't say football collecting, because there are absolutely collectors that appreciate what some of these guys are doing - it's just not enough to support the market at higher prices, consistently.

I'm sure some of this is narrow in scope and could be expanded upon. It's also the reason I stick with HOFers and retired in NFL cards. It's crazy how quick 1 down/bad season in the NFL will wreck a non-QB's cards vs. how, in other sports, you'll see guys come back and after another rebound/good season - their cards will continue on to new highs.

[OneBuck]

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

Football cards always have the same problem. Careers are short, US centric, team is more important than players, marketing and hype is QB centric.

This is the reason here.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by KardsC1

Yes…go look at card shows…kids are generally buying up more nfl vs the other sports..nfl ratings and nfl talk dominates mainstream

Truth. Seems like every kid asking, "Have any Burrow?" Way more people younger people looking for football than baseball, at least in my area.

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

Football cards always have the same problem. Careers are short, US centric, team is more important than players, marketing and hype is QB centric.

All valid. Further, you couldn't really prospect the NFL either until Bowman U a few years back and even now, many don't want the college uniform stuff. Football and basketball are also more ring-centric than baseball where there is far more emphasis on individual stats.

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by REGGIE206

I mainly collect baseball cards.. and occasionally, I’ll buy some basketball cards. Very rarely, I will buy football cards ...

Originally Posted by nabzy28

Gotta also mention that there is near ZERO appreciation for a player, no matter the position - QB included...

I agree with almost all of what you both said, but the same thing does kind of happen in basketball and less so in baseball. For example, no one cares about Andre Iguodala cards even though he was an all-star level player in PHI, all-defensive level player, won a finals MVP + 4 rings as a starter/integral 6th man. No one cares about Donovan Mitchell cards even though he's averaging nearly 29 PPG this year, 7x all-star, 2x All-NBA, in MVP top 5-6 voting twice, and his team has been good lately and a Finals contender, top ECF team.

From what I understand people care less, generally, about pitchers in baseball. Closers/relievers = defensive players in football essentially, no love. No one cares about hypothetically the best defensive all-world gold glove SS ever even if he was hitting .300+ every season if his team sucked and he didn't mash 30+ HRs a season or lead the league in WAR. Omar Vizquel ish type if you will.

Now I could be off a bit, but my point is - it's still ultimately the same. Wemby had a card sell for 600k+ the other night because people are prospecting and speculating he could become GOAT or all-time level. If he had no chance to, his cards aren't worth anything really, i.e. post-big in NBA, any non-QB in the NFL (especially non QB/WR/RB), Pitchers generally/definitely relievers/non-power hitters-WAR leaders-GOAT contenders in baseball.

It's all the same really. The NFL is just a bit dramatic and the gambling isn't as fun for people ripping when only QBs and maybe a few WR/RBs are hits. It's always about "GOAT" level.

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by nabzy28

Gotta also mention that there is near ZERO appreciation for a player, no matter the position - QB included. Every player is expected to be the next (Brady/Mahomes)(Barry Sanders/Ladainian Tomlinson)(Rice/Moss/Fitz/Megatron)... and so on. It's all expectation and hype immediately priced in and, in many cases, priced in before they even play. It's insane. The instant they get injured and miss a few games, their career is dead. I may be wrong here, but I don't see this in any other sport - at all or, if so, it's extremely rare. Justin Herbert hasn't broken every Mahomes/Brady record by the same point in his career? He's garbage. The Bills literally just blew up their entire coaching staff because the ownership views everything they've done with Josh Allen as a failure. This mindset is seen in football cards. I won't say football collecting, because there are absolutely collectors that appreciate what some of these guys are doing - it's just not enough to support the market at higher prices, consistently.

I'm sure some of this is narrow in scope and could be expanded upon. It's also the reason I stick with HOFers and retired in NFL cards. It's crazy how quick 1 down/bad season in the NFL will wreck a non-QB's cards vs. how, in other sports, you'll see guys come back and after another rebound/good season - their cards will continue on to new highs.

Also, in terms of specifics...yeah Herbert does kind of suck. Who is better in their respective sport? Donovan Mitchell or Justin Herbert? (suck is relative)

Because Herbert still has cards selling for 30k-50k range, he just had a gold Kaboom go for 35.4k and a flawless 1/1 auto go for 44.4k in January. Whether these sales are fake or not, who knows, but Herbert was doing six figures sales during covid as a prospected QB. At this point anyone spending ~50k on a Herbert card is obviously lighting that money on fire. He has zero SB rings, zero All-pros, 2 pro bowls?, and his team kinda sucks, he gets battered, and doesn't seem to be likely to win a SB anytime soon.

So while this ties into the ring argument. It's more GOAT imo. I think most people who actually know football consider Dan Marino top 5-10 all-time easily. He has zero rings. Rodgers/Brees have 1 ring each, they're clearly top 5-10 all-time as well. It's not all rings. But it is about the trajectory to GOAT status or coming into that 2nd-3rd-4th all-time while being the best of your era. Herbert ain't that. An example of how it works imo