Predicting the future of the basketball card hobby

[WillC]

Some of my bold predictions for the future of the basketball card hobby (feel free to add your own):

- Randomly inserted redemptions for personalised autographs, whereby the player will sign a 1/1 card to the person who pulled the redemption, e.g. "To WillC, wishing you all the best for the future, from Larry Bird"

- A general increase in supply of inscribed cards, e.g. players signing cards with details of their 'most memorable moment', 'career highlight' or 'greatest game'.

- Increased supply of cut autos of deceased Hall of Fame players (e.g. Bobby McDermott, Ed Macauley, Charles 'Tarzan' Cooper, William 'Pop' Gates, Gus Johnson, Maurice Stokes, etc) as more fans become interested in the history of the sport.

- Due to their unrivalled design, Chronology canvas autos will become the new Precious Metal Gems in terms of hype and increased demand, coupled with relatively limited supply.

- A new ultra high-end product called 'Blast From The Past' (or something similar) featuring buy-back old school RCs autographed by the player in question, akin to 1996 Topps Stars Autographs.

- Reduced supply of small jersey swatch cards, especially of irrelevant players. Instead, card companies will make larger swatches/patches with lower print runs, to increase demand, leading to higher prices.

- A resurgence in cool looking insert cards, leading to an increase in demand amongst younger collectors.

- Significantly higher sale prices of Magic Johnson and Larry Bird autos, especially in high end products, as each player's career and impact on the game becomes more mythical and legendary.

[Jin]

i agree w/ the larger swatches/patches and cut autos. the personalized autos are a sick idea.

ive always wanted to see some sort of thumbprint type of auto.

i also thing they will start coming out with redemptions for entire game worn jerseys.

[WillC]

Originally Posted by Jin

i agree w/ the larger swatches/patches and cut autos. the personalized autos are a sick idea.

Watch Panini steal my idea

[hermanotarjeta]

-Rare Michael Jordan cards continue to develop a "Mickey Mantle" or "Babe Ruth" type following, and younger kids continue to wonder why the heck he sells for so much.

-Basketball cards continue to lose popularity in the United States, but turn out to be the most popular international sports cards in the world. More products are sold outside of the US than in the US. Panini continues to fluorish, but Americans still don't understand why and continue to complain about their products. Furthermore, Americans also whine about not being able to relate to comtemporary basketball players, and start to collect more football cards.

-Panini is the only company left making basketball cards - RIP Upper Deck

-The only superstars that remain are guys with names you can't pronounce, and basketball collecting in America develops the same appeal as Hockey cards in America.

-Americans continue to be looked upon as "stupid Americans", and sadly, it is true. They can never learn to appreciate anything that they have, and continue to feel entitled to everything.

[jeebus_86]

I agree with some of your points, especially the points about the Canvas autos and Magic Johnson cards.

I said from the beginning when that Canvas auto set came out, that it was gonna be HUGE, with big investment potential. Kinda wish I would have stocked up on a few more at the beginning, but I was just happy on getting the two I really wanted which were the Michael Jordan and Kobe "Slam Dunk" cards. And even though I made a HUGE profit on the Lebron that sold for $550, I kinda wish I still would have kept it.

Also, like I said on an other forum, when compared to Jordan, I think Magic is significantly underrated in the Hobby. I mean, he's up there with Jordan as one of the greatest of all time, yet he sells for less then 10% of most Jordan cards.

[vc15jrich23]

I had always said it would be cool for a redemption for a big canvas auto like a poster or something. Like the chronology one's as they have sweet photos on them.

[WillC]

Originally Posted by jeebus_86

I agree with some of your points, especially the points about the Canvas autos and Magic Johnson cards.

I said from the beginning when that Canvas auto set came out, that it was gonna be HUGE, with big investment potential. Kinda wish I would have stocked up on a few more at the beginning, but I was just happy on getting the two I really wanted which were the Michael Jordan and Kobe "Slam Dunk" cards. And even though I made a HUGE profit on the Lebron that sold for $550, I kinda wish I still would have kept it.

Also, like I said on an other forum, when compared to Jordan, I think Magic is significantly underrated in the Hobby. I mean, he's up there with Jordan as one of the greatest of all time, yet he sells for less then 10% of most Jordan cards.

I hate to say it (but I'm sure we're all thinking the same thing): if Magic dies because of his HIV, then I think his prices will sky rocket. But, even if he lives until a grand old age, I think his card prices will increase for the reason you gave. He's one of the very best players ever, he was incredibly fun to watch, charismatic, and unique. I can see his autos doubling in price over the next decade.

Likewise, I think Bird's prices will increase. As if bringing up Magic's HIV wasn't bad enough, I'll now mention Bird's skin colour: I don't think we'll ever see a better white player than Bird and, therefore, many card collectors and fans will relate to him and his career will become more mythical over time.

The new Bird vs Magic musical won't hurt, either.

Chronology autos are selling like hot cakes. I've been tracking their sale prices for a few months now and many of them have doubled in value over that time.

I listed some on eBay last week but removed the listings after I decided to just enjoy the cards I've got rather than continuously buying and selling all the time. But, before I ended the auctions, I was amazed at how many people were watching the cards. Some of them had 30+ watchers. Even the less famous players had 20+ watchers.

Since I removed the auctions, I've had messages from potential buyers asking me to reconsider and hear their offers.

Meanwhile, the sale of the John Paxson auto for $155 a few weeks ago confirms that people are prepared to pay over the odds for these cards.

[knicks_please]

Originally Posted by WillC

Some of my bold predictions for the future of the basketball card hobby (feel free to add your own):

- Randomly inserted redemptions for personalised autographs, whereby the player will sign a 1/1 card to the person who pulled the redemption, e.g. "To WillC, wishing you all the best for the future, from Larry Bird"

- A general increase in supply of inscribed cards, e.g. players signing cards with details of their 'most memorable moment', 'career highlight' or 'greatest game'.

- Increased supply of cut autos of deceased Hall of Fame players (e.g. Bobby McDermott, Ed Macauley, Charles 'Tarzan' Cooper, William 'Pop' Gates, Gus Johnson, Maurice Stokes, etc) as more fans become interested in the history of the sport.

- Due to their unrivalled design, Chronology canvas autos will become the new Precious Metal Gems in terms of hype and increased demand, coupled with relatively limited supply.

- A new ultra high-end product called 'Blast From The Past' (or something similar) featuring buy-back old school RCs autographed by the player in question, akin to 1996 Topps Stars Autographs.

- Reduced supply of small jersey swatch cards, especially of irrelevant players. Instead, card companies will make larger swatches/patches with lower print runs, to increase demand, leading to higher prices.

- A resurgence in cool looking insert cards, leading to an increase in demand amongst younger collectors.

- Significantly higher sale prices of Magic Johnson and Larry Bird autos, especially in high end products, as each player's career and impact on the game becomes more mythical and legendary.

although i like the idea of personalized autos - people would HATE em (i think?) because of the re-sellability (is that a word?)...not sure if it would matter because its a card but you know with signed memorabilia of any other kind having the auto addressed to you decreases the value severely, because no one named will wants an auto that says, to daniel! from xxxxxx lol....but it would be cool for those of us who don't sell a lot hah... all of the other ones i think are possible, except for maybe magic and bird autos going up - there are just too many of their autos out there....
i really hope they just move to do all the on card autos they can, and quit taking so many shortcuts....make larger patches and do away with the worthless swatches of scrubs lol...

[dmogull]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

-Rare Michael Jordan cards continue to develop a "Mickey Mantle" or "Babe Ruth" type following, and younger kids continue to wonder why the heck he sells for so much.

-Basketball cards continue to lose popularity in the United States, but turn out to be the most popular international sports cards in the world. More products are sold outside of the US than in the US. Panini continues to fluorish, but Americans still don't understand why and continue to complain about their products. Furthermore, Americans also whine about not being able to relate to comtemporary basketball players, and start to collect more football cards.

-Panini is the only company left making basketball cards - RIP Upper Deck

-The only superstars that remain are guys with names you can't pronounce, and basketball collecting in America develops the same appeal as Hockey cards in America.

-Americans continue to be looked upon as "stupid Americans", and sadly, it is true. They can never learn to appreciate anything that they have, and continue to feel entitled to everything.

Very unnecessary comment...where are u from by the way?

[WillC]

Originally Posted by Knicker_Please

although i like the idea of personalized autos - people would HATE em (i think?) because of the re-sellability (is that a word?)...not sure if it would matter because its a card but you know with signed memorabilia of any other kind having the auto addressed to you decreases the value severely, because no one named will wants an auto that says, to daniel! from xxxxxx lol....but it would be cool for those of us who don't sell a lot hah... all of the other ones i think are possible, except for maybe magic and bird autos going up - there are just too many of their autos out there....
i really hope they just move to do all the on card autos they can, and quit taking so many shortcuts....make larger patches and do away with the worthless swatches of scrubs lol...

But Jordan has more autos than anyone (it seems) yet his prices have increased and show no signs of slowing down.

Now, I know Magic and Bird autos will never be on the same level as Jordan's (obviously they don't have the same global super fan base as Jordan - who does?), but I can see people willing to pay a lot more for the high-end Magic and Bird autos, e.g. Exquisite, UD Black, Chronology, etc.

As for the personalised autos, you're right, the re-sale value wouldn't be all that high. But, personally, I can't think of many cards I'd prefer than a personalised autograph from Michael Jordan

[joel1998]

Well when panini try to do things like high end it does not work , like for e.g preferred i loved these silhouette's but they weren't my cup of tea really becuase when i expect a 200 dollar box, i want to get my money out of it like a love the booklets but one in every box is to much really, thats why the markets flooded with them. so my idea in the future is like will said make more cut autos from older players and more unique designs like for e.g maybe they could use more foil and make sure there autograph is inscripted with something like for kobe "the black mamba" maybe they could be one in every 4 boxes and because some people a facing financial problems and struggling with money and maybe just drop the prices to maybe a low end box full of base maybe 40 dollars and the high end products like 200 not a ridicolous 500 here and 1000 there, yeah maybe for boxes whats really got good players to pull and you can get some of your money back im not arguing about panini im just trying to state my opinion as a 14 year old boy.

[WillC]

I agree about the need for more low-end boxes, Joel.

I'd personally really enjoy busting a box of low-end cards, especially if there were lots of nice looking inserts and the chance of grabbing a short-printed parallel or something.

[knicks_please]

Originally Posted by dmogull

Very unnecessary comment...where are u from by the way?

+1 where ya from buddy??

[Fraser9698]

Magic is supposedly hiv free now. I plan on adding some chrono in the offseason to my collection.

[knicks_please]

Originally Posted by WillC

But Jordan has more autos than anyone (it seems) yet his prices have increased and show no signs of slowing down.

Now, I know Magic and Bird autos will never be on the same level as Jordan's (obviously they don't have the same global super fan base as Jordan - who does?), but I can see people willing to pay a lot more for the high-end Magic and Bird autos, e.g. Exquisite, UD Black, Chronology, etc.

As for the personalised autos, you're right, the re-sale value wouldn't be all that high. But, personally, I can't think of many cards I'd prefer than a personalised autograph from Michael Jordan

yeah...i mean there is basically ONE really collectible person with high values in the hobby and its jordan...but yeah itd be nice to see magic and bird get some better hobby love...

haha yeah as collectors the personalized auto is cool but for people selling...honestly it might work i just thought because they would obviously have to be redemptions so the person with the intent of selling it could sell it to a collector as a redemption before getting it personalized....i dont think its a horrible idea lol....

definitely think there should be more cut autos of deceased players....

[SportsItUpCards]

Will, it looks like i'll need to hire you when I hit the mega millions and start my own card company... you'll be head of the creative department haha

Very good ideas!! I'll add a few if I think of any.

[XARZY]

Im still waiting on my dream of NBA XXL to be fulfilled. A redemption only set a'la original UD Black, it would offer large box top like nameplates cards with autos.

what about a card set made with solid gold cards and customers pay the cost of the gold used per card + 25-30% ( To cover production cost) as product msrp and they include all sorts of players. from Scrubs to HOFers.

[SportsItUpCards]

I'm still waiting for game used afro cards...

1/1 Auto/Patch/Jersey/Sneaker/Shorts/Socks/Afro... and Tong!

[screamingdc]

the personalized auto idea is very interesting. would be very costly to the company to make (insert redemption, has to be sent in with note as to name or inscription desired, card sent to player with explicit directions or instructions, then sent back to the customer). would have to be very limited and in a product somewhat high end for the profit to work.

the buyback RC's are getting closer to reality. i think Leaf was testing the market with Best of Basketball, but to improve will have to do something like this. they included RC's of Durant and Rose which were essentially buybacks with sticker autos so pretty close on that one.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Knicker_Please

+1 where ya from buddy??

LOL, i'm from Cali, I was just commenting in jest.

I was just reflecting on how this hobby/message boards in general are just so negative about certain aspects of the hobby, all the haters and all, and just thinking about how other collectors around the world view us Americans.

We are spoiled compared to most countries, and I believe collectors outside of America would actually appreciate even products like 2011-12 Hoops more than your average American collector, who simply can't stop complaining about how bad things are. I believe the OP is from the UK, and the environment must be SOO different there. I mean, how many shows do they hold in the entire country every year - 1 if any at all? How much BS do you need to deal with just to get cards shipped overseas to England? How about places like Germany, or, Hungary, or wherever else international collectors may be.

We have it so good here in the U.S. Even though i'm not a Panini fan, realistically they may be the only game in town very soon. I'm very grateful that we have a dependable shipping service and really easy access to wax anywhere you live in this country.

I just hope going forward American collectors continue to enjoy collecting cards with the same passion that international collectors have - they really have to work at it to maintain their collections, but they really love their stuff. May we Americans never take our hobby for granted- 95% of the people in the rest of the world can't afford to spend their precious money on something as frivolous as sports cards.

[ajscards101]

redemptions for personalized autographs sounds like a super cool idea

[MikeMamba]

Game used pieces of the shoe! that would be incredible!

Some shoes have awesome looking designs at the bottom of the sole. It would make the card look so sick!

[kenny3011]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

We have it so good here in the U.S. Even though i'm not a Panini fan, realistically they may be the only game in town very soon. I'm very grateful that we have a dependable shipping service and really easy access to wax anywhere you live in this country.

This is so true, I would love to be able to just go into a Target and buy retail packs

[jameshues]

I think when it comes to specifics in card design from Panini, two things will be on the rise over the years IMO:

1. Silver ink will be used more often
- You already saw this happen with the "Thunderstruck" autograph set in Black Box and the Football RPAs in Gold Standard. It's Panini's attempt to replicate UD Black, but there's 1 thing that they need to understand: STOP USING PAINT PENS. The autos are streaky and awkward. Just use a fine point silver sharpie! Than Panini's silver autos will be golden

UD:

Panini:


2. Cards with a matte finish, but foil surrounding the memorabilia/auto
- Another attempt by Panini to replicate UD products (i.e. UD Premier, UD Ultimate). You could see them doing this in Football Plates and Patches and 2012 Football NT, but it is yet to occur in any basketball products. Cards with a matte finish but foil around the patches really accents the color and brings out the patches, which makes cards look amazing in person. Look for Panini to do this more in the future.

UD:

Panini:




EDIT: Just did a photobucket search for "UD Black" and willc's card came up

[hairyangryfella]

Originally Posted by WillC

I agree about the need for more low-end boxes, Joel.

I'd personally really enjoy busting a box of low-end cards, especially if there were lots of nice looking inserts and the chance of grabbing a short-printed parallel or something.

I agree with this, but less da'sean butler and Jerome Jordan autos that nobody wants filling up the packs. I'd rather have a nice looking insert than an auto of a complete nobody that you can't even get more than a couple of bucks for if you were lucky enough to be able to sell it. Basically, less crap, more quality.