NBA Top Shot - High Risk, High Reward?

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

So, they are probably gonna put 600,000 moments in 2 weeks or so...that will be interesting

This will be all new moments and that is where I expect to see the market start to come much closer to normal sports cards where the rookies and stars carry value and the rest are very low value. With that being said I think that could still keep a lot of people interested in this and it would only make the current moments out there more valuable.

[773cards]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

So, they are probably gonna put 600,000 moments in 2 weeks or so...that will be interesting

Buy all the early ones that are minted!

[rysportguy]

If anyone is looking to move out of dapper balance (ideally $900+ worth), I would be willing to buy moments at 30% discount of current value with paypal.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Howie7107

There's risk, but the floor and ceiling are both much higher than you think. There's very little doubt in the smarter pockets of the internet that this is almost definitely the future and there's some massive whale money waiting to pour in once withdrawal becomes more seamless.

I’m just talking as a whole.

I think physical could be a $20-30B industry in 10 years.

I think TS could be $1B or $50B. Who knows?

I also think Justin was dead on that NFTs translate better to other mediums (art) than NBA gifs.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

This will be all new moments and that is where I expect to see the market start to come much closer to normal sports cards where the rookies and stars carry value and the rest are very low value. With that being said I think that could still keep a lot of people interested in this and it would only make the current moments out there more valuable.

I agree, at some points the commons are just gonna be commons. But there are so many questions going and possibilities about what might happen.

I think that's one of the best things about TS. We are seeing something that has never been done before unfold. It's exciting.

[noaskiecards]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

Would anything in the collectible category?



No.

Basically crypto collectibles? Instead of owning the gold coin or the lebron psa 10, you own a digital version that can all be mined a certain amount?

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

[Howie7107]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

I’m just talking as a whole.

I think physical could be a $20-30B industry in 10 years.

I think TS could be $1B or $50B. Who knows?

I also think Justin was dead on that NFTs translate better to other mediums (art) than NBA gifs.

I think both of these are fair, especially the point about art. Range of outcomes are definitely still wide on TS, but the chances of it going to 0 are pretty low at this point.

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by noaskiecards

Basically crypto collectibles? Instead of owning the gold coin or the lebron psa 10, you own a digital version that can all be mined a certain amount?

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Without going into a rabbit hole with detail, that is correct.

[Howie7107]

So the absolute floor EV just for the MGLE spot yesterday is $2,174 (true EV has to be much higher once you adjust for serial numbers and properly calculate the 5 Series 2 Common spots). Congratulations basically anyone who bought a pack on the secondary yesterday as I'm sure you crushed it.

[mrmike79]

Originally Posted by Eckstein197

Also these pre order packs are very smart, and the 2 week period makes a ton of sense

Essentially they’re test running the new packs, and how many moments/minted moments they need to create.

If they see they need 200K base packs for the pre order, they can set an expectation for “okay we need to mint 25-30K for X moments (let’s say 200) to have sufficient enough supply for easily accessible base packs for the market”

This was an excellent choice and well done by top shot

I know it’s been compared in this thread with Project 2020 and they are different products, but the exponential growth along with supply and demand applies to both.

Isn’t this the problem that Project 2020 had? Quoting Geechquest: ”Unlimited Supply” ..... now they are just printing to order. These pre sale order print runs are going to go sky high like the Shore Griffey.

The same reason both products earlier releases were sought after was the scarcity. Sure everyone can get one now, but is the demand going to continue once people realize everyone else has what they also have?

Now I know the packs are limited to per account, so that mitigates some of the risk from flooding the market. Also each pack is different, so that also helps diversify the market holdings for each customer.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by mrmike79

I know it’s been compared in this thread with Project 2020 and they are different products, but the exponential growth along with supply and demand applies to both.

Isn’t this the problem that Project 2020 had? Quoting Geechquest: ”Unlimited Supply” ..... now they are just printing to order. These pre sale order print runs are going to go sky high like the Shore Griffey.

The same reason both products earlier releases were sought after was the scarcity. Sure everyone can get one now, but is the demand going to continue once people realize everyone else has what they also have?

Now I know the packs are limited to per account, so that mitigates some of the risk from flooding the market. Also each pack is different, so that also helps diversify the market holdings for each customer.

Personally, I think this is gonna help the market. Right now, it's inflated from a collector's perspective. I wanna have some moments for my team's PC but they are way too expensive. More moments will make it hard for flippers and they will eventually drop prices/leave.

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by mrmike79

Isn’t this the problem that Project 2020 had? Quoting Geechquest: ”Unlimited Supply” ..... now they are just printing to order. These pre sale order print runs are going to go sky high like the Shore Griffey. .

I can see how from the outside looking in, this is exactly what it looks like. It not. The biggest difference between this and Project2020 (I’m not a big baseball collector so I only know the major details of it and not every very knowledgeable on that) is that top shot mints CC and LE moments,

CC moments will be minted until the players next moment is minted. Could be 20,000 or could be 2000000. These were never meant to be valuable and will be the moments that anyone can pick up for $1. We currently don’t have any CCs on the market since EVERY moment went LE. That’s why you’re seeing these ridiculous prices. These will never again be minted.

They also put LE moments in the common packs. With the next pack, any rookies first moment will be /4000. Any non-rookies first moment will be /12000. Everything else will be CC /25000+. Meaning they will mint that until that player has his next moment. Then the CC moment turns LE and minting is done.

Hope that makes sense.

[rysportguy]

I do wish they had a cap on the new moments. Even if it was 100,000. You can't just keep making packs until the market no longer wants them. Need to leave them wanting more. My guess is they have an internal cap in mind they just don't want to say it .

[dunkindutchmen]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

I can see how from the outside looking in, this is exactly what it looks like. It not. The biggest difference between this and Project2020 (I’m not a big baseball collector so I only know the major details of it and not every very knowledgeable on that) is that top shot mints CC and LE moments,

CC moments will be minted until the players next moment is minted. Could be 20,000 or could be 2000000. These were never meant to be valuable and will be the moments that anyone can pick up for $1. We currently don’t have any CCs on the market since EVERY moment went LE. That’s why you’re seeing these ridiculous prices. These will never again be minted.

They also put LE moments in the common packs. With the next pack, any rookies first moment will be /4000. Any non-rookies first moment will be /12000. Everything else will be CC /25000+. Meaning they will mint that until that player has his next moment. Then the CC moment turns LE and minting is done.

Hope that makes sense.

Would you recommend holding or selling a Zion LE series 2 /15000?

[lrogge1979]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

If anyone is looking to move out of dapper balance (ideally $900+ worth), I would be willing to buy moments at 30% discount of current value with paypal.

Sent you a pm

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by dunkindutchmen

Would you recommend holding or selling a Zion LE series 2 /15000?

I don’t have any and it’s certainly not financial advise but you have to realize there are still 2500 in packs. If youre holding, you’re betting on a severe growth of users within the next two weeks. Not saying it’s wrong but odds are you could probably sell and buy it back for less.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

I can see how from the outside looking in, this is exactly what it looks like. It not. The biggest difference between this and Project2020 (I’m not a big baseball collector so I only know the major details of it and not every very knowledgeable on that) is that top shot mints CC and LE moments,

CC moments will be minted until the players next moment is minted. Could be 20,000 or could be 2000000. These were never meant to be valuable and will be the moments that anyone can pick up for $1. We currently don’t have any CCs on the market since EVERY moment went LE. That’s why you’re seeing these ridiculous prices. These will never again be minted.

They also put LE moments in the common packs. With the next pack, any rookies first moment will be /4000. Any non-rookies first moment will be /12000. Everything else will be CC /25000+. Meaning they will mint that until that player has his next moment. Then the CC moment turns LE and minting is done.

Hope that makes sense.

Maybe I misunderstood this...but if a moment becomes LE at 5000, but there are only 3000 in circulation, does that mean the other 2000 never get created?

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

Maybe I misunderstood this...but if a moment becomes LE at 5000, but there are only 3000 in circulation, does that mean the other 2000 never get created?

Do you have an example?

[mrmike79]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

Maybe I misunderstood this...but if a moment becomes LE at 5000, but there are only 3000 in circulation, does that mean the other 2000 never get created?

It means the remaining 2000 are yet to be circulated. Once they are, that is it. No more of that specific moment will be minted.

They could be in remaining pack releases or hidden in packs that have yet to be opened which people are holding.

[Mamschler1]

Ha got spot 547 for the pre-release drop. Why couldn’t that have been the case for the MGLE? Lol

[PSA2Pac]

64k lol

[discodanman45]

The 9084 place in line would have been better yesterday...

[mjohnatgt]

Pre-Order Line open. Already 80,000 ready to wait four hours to get a random queue location.

[D4B182]

Originally Posted by PSA2Pac

64k lol

55k here. This might be awhile.

[tylerperro]

44k

What's the price of this pack?