Are we in the early 90s again!

[pewe]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Seems like there’s a lot of money out there just waiting to be spent...



The hobby needle isn’t being moved by people who have to choose between cards and a concert, theme park day, sporting event, or vacation.

I don’t think I’m disagreeing with you

Let me lay it out this way:

Today - lets conceptually say the “size of the pie” is now 200% because of folks coming into the hobby and spending $$ (probably not far off based on spend numbers I’ve seen 2017 vs. last year)

Future post COVID - my expectation is the amount will be less than the current 200%. Will it be 150%? 190%? 120%? Not sure. All those numbers I just told you are above the original 100%, so my expectation is we’ll still be above. I just don’t think it remains at 200%.

BTW I think you are correct that some portion of the $$ isn’t really challenged substitution of $$ spend in a cash way. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t challenged by substitution effects... rather the issue is substitution of time and interest... people can spend time on things they didn’t during COVID (holidays, skiing, events, gambling) and that distracts them from our hobby... just because they have the $$ doesn’t mean they remember to spend it

This latter effect is why I get deals every Oct/Nov in baseball cards. The $$ is there, but people are distracted and don’t pay attention. I expect the same happens here.


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[pewe]

Originally Posted by Uwfootball1

I feel like Covid has gotten alot more people collecting not just fliping and that those people will stay around again for a while but perhaps not with as much regular buying power but I think the #'s of "collectors" will be higher for many years to come.

I agree the level will be higher than before... but also will be less than it is currently


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[redsandbengals]

Originally Posted by rcmb3220

I just checked. My ‘83 Monte Carlo is not in the driveway and I can’t dunk a basketball anymore. I got excited for a minute but now I’m depressed.

Was that '83 an SS?

[Uwfootball1]

Originally Posted by pewe

I agree the level will be higher than before... but also will be less than it is currently


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Yes but thats just the short term, think about the future generations and the growth the hobby will see as parents take their kids again and things

(assuming topps stops trying to make sure kids cant collect)

[pewe]

Originally Posted by Uwfootball1

Yes but thats just the short term, think about the future generations and the growth the hobby will see as parents take their kids again and things

(assuming topps stops trying to make sure kids cant collect)

I’m not sure I understand your comment... over what time horizon are you talking?

BTW interest in pro sports plummeted across the board during COVID and has exasperated a long term trend where younger generations are less and less interested. So if your time horizon is decades, how do you expect the decreased interest in pro sports and athletes as media personalities will affect sports card demand?


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[Uwfootball1]

Originally Posted by pewe

I’m not sure I understand your comment... over what time horizon are you talking?

BTW interest in pro sports plummeted across the board during COVID and has exasperated a long term trend where younger generations are less and less interested. So if your time horizon is decades, how do you expect the decreased interest in pro sports and athletes as media personalities will affect sports card demand?


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Okay ill clarify, I mean that more youth/young people will be exposed by their parents getting back into it and that the increase will continue to move over the next decades as friends tell their friends etc.

I think that the trend will reverse per your other point. This is due to eventually pro teams will have to make changes to make it more affordable again due to declining interest then a new boom will occur.

Im not sure the two points link up very well, I think the growth of the hobby can occur even as the # of fans go down. Just my opinion you are more than welcome to pull this post up 20 years from now and remind me i was wrong if it doesnt swing the way i think it will

[Nostalgia]

I don't know if stories like this on ESPN (today) help or hurt the hobby.....

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...illion-auction

[pewe]

Originally Posted by Nostalgia

I don't know if stories like this on ESPN (today) help or hurt the hobby.....

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...illion-auction

It’s at least a barometer of the current excitement!


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[ThoseBackPages]

did it burst?

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

did it burst?

It did not....BUT IT WILL..I PROMISE..BE READYYYYY

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by Chris P

It did not....BUT IT WILL..I PROMISE..BE READYYYYY

ok, thank you!

i will ask later

[pewe]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

ok, thank you!

i will ask later

If you aren’t already puckered, you better start now!


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[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by pewe

If you aren’t already puckered, you better start now!


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ok, let me grab the tissues

[critthnkr365]

Having lived as a collecting adult in the 1990's, about the only similarity I see between now and then is that in both eras, you have plenty of hungry buyers of cards for similar reasons: "collecting," "investing," "speculating," "flipping," "short-term hold," "long-term hold," and on and on.

In my experience, that's where the similarities end. There's a whole lot more that is entirely different today.

1993: I get the urge to rip open packs of cards, I get in my car, drive to the local Walmart, Meijer, Kmart, Walgreens, gas station, card store, and so on, and I have 100's of packs to choose from. I remember seeing a full pallet of 1990 Hoops on the Meijer's floor/aisle in.....1993 for about 5 bucks a box. Never once during that time did I fail to find packs to open. Never. I could buy as much as I wanted, whenever I wanted for a few bucks per box/pack.

2021: I go to Target and can't find a single pack of sports cards to open. Instead I go online. Boxes, packs, whatever, are 2x or more MSRP.

1993: I want to show off my cards to fellow collectors. I rent a table at a local show for 15 bucks and display my cards for sale as well as those I just want to show others. Maybe 50 local people see my cards. I set up the next month - same people.

2021: I put my cards on an online registry, post them on an online message board, put them on Facebook. 1000's see my cards from all over the world.

1993: I want to sell cards. See item above about setting up at card show. Maybe 50 people from my local area see my cards. Few want what I have because all 50 already have 50 each of what I have.

2021: I can consign to online auction houses or list myself on eBay or, yes, even set up at a card show (but I don't - too much work). 1,000's from around the world see my cards for sale and buy them.

My point is that I caution anyone trying to predict the habits of today's buyers and circumstances going forward by comparing them to buyers and circumstances in the 1990's. In my view, it's comparing apples to oranges.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by critthnkr365

Having lived as a collecting adult in the 1990's, about the only similarity I see between now and then is that in both eras, you have plenty of hungry buyers of cards for similar reasons: "collecting," "investing," "speculating," "flipping," "short-term hold," "long-term hold," and on and on.

In my experience, that's where the similarities end. There's a whole lot more that is entirely different today.

1993: I get the urge to rip open packs of cards, I get in my car, drive to the local Walmart, Meijer, Kmart, Walgreens, gas station, card store, and so on, and I have 100's of packs to choose from. I remember seeing a full pallet of 1990 Hoops on the Meijer's floor/aisle in.....1993 for about 5 bucks a box. Never once during that time did I fail to find packs to open. Never. I could buy as much as I wanted, whenever I wanted for a few bucks per box/pack.

2021: I go to Target and can't find a single pack of sports cards to open. Instead I go online. Boxes, packs, whatever, are 2x or more MSRP.

1993: I want to show off my cards to fellow collectors. I rent a table at a local show for 15 bucks and display my cards for sale as well as those I just want to show others. Maybe 50 local people see my cards. I set up the next month - same people.

2021: I put my cards on an online registry, post them on an online message board, put them on Facebook. 1000's see my cards from all over the world.

1993: I want to sell cards. See item above about setting up at card show. Maybe 50 people from my local area see my cards. Few want what I have.

2021: I can consign to online auction houses or list myself on eBay or, yes, even set up at a card show (but I don't - too much work). 1,000's from around the world see my cards for sale and buy them.

My point is that I caution anyone trying to predict the habits of today's buyers and circumstances going forward by comparing them to buyers and circumstances in the 1990's. In my view, it's comparing apples to oranges.

this is well said.

i will add a few things that i see as well.

1993: 22 year old me goes to the monthly card show and sees guys older AND younger then i am, buy/selling/trading cards

2021: 50 year old me sees guys older AND younger then i am, buy/selling/trading cards on the internet

[pewe]

Originally Posted by critthnkr365

In my view, it's comparing apples to oranges.

At least we can agree that they are both fruits???


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[alphaomegas]

It will never happen in 90’s we didn’t have internet , eBay, government free money, crypto, streaming/digital lack of collectibles....way different time period this hobby has just started wait till the next stimulus drops. Prices going to Pluto boys!!!!!! Get your cards graded ASAP cause we going to be millionaires and I really do mean everyone millionaires even the homeless due to government go brrrrr with free money.

[Uwfootball1]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

this is well said.

i will add a few things that i see as well.

1993: 22 year old me goes to the monthly card show and sees guys older AND younger then i am, buy/selling/trading cards

2021: 50 year old me sees guys older AND younger then i am, buy/selling/trading cards on the internet

To add one ive heard many times, didnt live through it myself however

1990's : Pulling out becketts to check cards value at shows

2021: Looking on ebay to see if you can get it for cheaper.

[CharlieHustle]

Originally Posted by critthnkr365

Having lived as a collecting adult in the 1990's, about the only similarity I see between now and then is that in both eras, you have plenty of hungry buyers of cards for similar reasons: "collecting," "investing," "speculating," "flipping," "short-term hold," "long-term hold," and on and on.

In my experience, that's where the similarities end. There's a whole lot more that is entirely different today.

1993: I get the urge to rip open packs of cards, I get in my car, drive to the local Walmart, Meijer, Kmart, Walgreens, gas station, card store, and so on, and I have 100's of packs to choose from. I remember seeing a full pallet of 1990 Hoops on the Meijer's floor/aisle in.....1993 for about 5 bucks a box. Never once during that time did I fail to find packs to open. Never. I could buy as much as I wanted, whenever I wanted for a few bucks per box/pack.

2021: I go to Target and can't find a single pack of sports cards to open. Instead I go online. Boxes, packs, whatever, are 2x or more MSRP.

1993: I want to show off my cards to fellow collectors. I rent a table at a local show for 15 bucks and display my cards for sale as well as those I just want to show others. Maybe 50 local people see my cards. I set up the next month - same people.

2021: I put my cards on an online registry, post them on an online message board, put them on Facebook. 1000's see my cards from all over the world.

1993: I want to sell cards. See item above about setting up at card show. Maybe 50 people from my local area see my cards. Few want what I have because all 50 already have 50 each of what I have.

2021: I can consign to online auction houses or list myself on eBay or, yes, even set up at a card show (but I don't - too much work). 1,000's from around the world see my cards for sale and buy them.

My point is that I caution anyone trying to predict the habits of today's buyers and circumstances going forward by comparing them to buyers and circumstances in the 1990's. In my view, it's comparing apples to oranges.

It's not apples and oranges. The same hurdle still exists, because these aren't collectors, they're speculators. They're Johnny Briefcase showing up (at a show in 1993 and online in 2021) and speculating on whatever the hot card du jour is. They buy the hottest sealed products, slabs, players ,etc and inflate the already artificial demand for these items. This creates pricing relativity throughout the entire market and before you know it, a box of 1989 Donruss has a price tag of $100 at your LCS, which in turn creates more relativity, because now your $35 box of 1988 Topps seems like a good deal.
For now, this group is here because the money is effortless. You buy something online and by the time it's reached your mailbox, the resale value has already gone up. What happens when the money isn't easy anymore?

So with that, yes, you're all right, social media is this giant connectivity point that creates FOMO and introduces new users to this hobby everyday. Yes, that's absolutely correct. Now, flip that around. What happens when the losses start mounting and this megaphone is shouting "RUN", instead of shouting "FREE MONEY"? Everything is happening quicker now. Rando player hits a monster HR? Cards are offered on twitter, within minutes. Hoopster McGee scores 34 points against Lebron? His RC card lots become the talk of Instagram (at a huge markup, of course). Social media gave birth to this trend, but it will also kill it, at a faster rate.

[CharlieHustle]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

Two reasons, both Covid related.

They were stuck at home and got back into collecting.

Sports were shutdown and gamblers wanted to gamble.


If your next argument is, these people leave the hobby when all goes back to normal, I think you are mistaken. The improvements made to the hobby will keep the collectors engaged and back for good. As far as the sports gamblers are concerned, I believe that they see this as much a better option to make bets because the sample sizes are larger and you can bet on careers, which is far less risky. When their bets are wrong on sports cards, they don't return zero, they have very strong floors to move off their positions.

This brings me to another wave joining which is investors that see that the above two groups won't be leaving and in turn will also be investing and staying.

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You're not describing gamblers, you're describing speculators.
Welcome to 1987. I have 100 card lots of Dave Magadan that I'd like to offer you to help fund your retirement.

[Nostalgia]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

You're not describing gamblers, you're describing speculators.
Welcome to 1987. I have 100 card lots of Dave Magadan that I'd like to offer you to help fund your retirement.

Trade my Jeffries' for the Magadan's

[CharlieHustle]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Normal ebb and flow of the market is not the sky falling.

AAPL took a 17% haircut recently. Is it over Johnny?

Relative.
Depends which floor you got on the elevator.
If you went all in on Apple, 15% ago, the sky might seem kinda dark.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

Relative.
Depends which floor you got on the elevator.
If you went all in on Apple, 15% ago, the sky might seem kinda dark.

But is the sky dark in actuality? Absolutely not. I remember when AAPL took a ~50% haircut at the end of 2012 into early 2013. Wasn’t over then either.

My point is, retraces are normal and healthy.

[CharlieHustle]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

You miss an important part of this equation. If new people join, prices go up. Think about it this way. If there are 4,000 Maddux gem topps traded cards, that sounds like a lot to those of us who have been around. In reality, this could be a minuscule number. You just need 5000 people to want to own this card for the prices to rise from where they were 2 years ago ($30 a card?) to present day of around $200. If another 1000 people want the card, forget it. 6000 people wanting to have a Greg Maddux gem in their collection does not sound like a big number to me. In fact, it seems absurdly small. This is what crushes the bubble argument. These aren't mortgage backed securities or companies like enron with bogus balance sheets. In order for it to burst, you need everyone to want to sell. There are only a few things that can cause this...

-Massive financial unrest.. not likely due to the ease of borrowing money for a long long time.

-Maddux being involved in a major scandal

-A huge scandal involving the card itself and evidence of massive counterfeiting etc.


Unless you are sure about one of the above, to me, its far more likely that more people want this card in the future than want it today. I could make the same argument for most cards.


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ONE of the above? How about all 3, with a little market flooding as an appetizer?

The waiting line at PSA is in "the single digit millions" and looking at the flurry of last minute hordes being sent in before the price increase, that number almost certainly hit double digit millions. And that's just PSA.

The market is seriously underestimating the flood of slabs that are about to hit.

[critthnkr365]

I don't remember the hobby crashing in the 1990's because card prices went through the roof and nobody could afford it. It was quite the opposite as I recall.

Not that I was the norm, but I left in 1995 out of boredom.