NBA Top Shot - High Risk, High Reward?

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

There’s 35k available of any given one and only ~200 have been listed so far. These will drop huuuuuuurd before climbing back up slightly in a couple days. IMO of course.

Chalk up another win for Vinny. There’s a reason why my ROI doesn’t turn green.

[Bruvydsb]

I'm a relative newbie and even I see the pattern.

Same pattern as RS so far. Climbs night one as only a few listed. Then drops as people race to the bottom. Then by night two creeps back up as undercutters are gone.

[ThePackLife]

To the TS Veterans... How many moments were included in the "Deck The Halls" pack for $230? I just want to know what $230 would get you back in January. TIA

[whodatbeastly16]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

Chalk up another win for Vinny. There’s a reason why my ROI doesn’t turn green.

It's not your fault you can't predict the market manipulation. I guarantee if there was a truly open market last night some of those Conley moments get below $15. Also they weren't exactly truthful in office hours. They said 7,000 more people able to withdraw in the past week. It was actually the past two weeks. I just wish they'd be more transparent.

[whodatbeastly16]

Rising Stars just hit their absolute low. Deni only at $410. May as well hold at this point, can’t see it getting any lower than that

[eastbayak]

Last night, I planned to go for the Conley challenge but halted such efforts after learning that only 1 moment could be purchased in a 60-minute period.

Because I'm no longer going for it, I wanted to share some things with those who are considering to do it.

When playing around with the numbers, I concluded that if I could acquire the 5 required moments for $165 ($33 per) or less, I'd go for the challenge because it was my conservative break-even number. At the time of calculation, the cheapest SS (10k print-run) was $160 (right now, it's $147). A previous cool cats challenge requiring 15k print-run moments was achieved by over 7k account so I estimated that at least 15k would accomplish the Conley challenge (placing a $100 valuation on a 15k print-run Conley reward with the possibility of it having more upside if needed for a future challenge). I also assumed that I could resell the 5 required moments post-challenge at $15 per (netting $14.25 per).

Right now, the Conley reward would have to be worth a little more than $200 for current prices of the 5 required moments to make sense. Not to mention, proportionally, there'd appear to be more Conley moments hitting the marketplace than the other Seeing Stars moments because some of the latter are still in sealed packs (it wouldn't be a 15k vs 10k comparison, it'd probably be more like a 15k vs 6-8k comparison, so instead of seeing a 3:2 ratio, it might be more like a ~2-2.5:1 ratio...which although not a big difference from the former is still important to consider).

So the conclusion I arrived to is that either: (1) Conley reward is quite overvalued, or (2) many SS (not all) are quite undervalued.

It's up to you to decide. My numbers are estimates based on assumptions I've made and involving current (and last night's) figures.

[ThePackLife]

TSMEME by The Pack Life, on Flickr

The Struggle...

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Last night, I planned to go for the Conley challenge but halted such efforts after learning that only 1 moment could be purchased in a 60-minute period.

Because I'm no longer going for it, I wanted to share some things with those who are considering to do it.

When playing around with the numbers, I concluded that if I could acquire the 5 required moments for $165 ($33 per) or less, I'd go for the challenge because it was my conservative break-even number. At the time of calculation, the cheapest SS (10k print-run) was $160 (right now, it's $147). A previous cool cats challenge requiring 15k print-run moments was achieved by over 7k account so I estimated that at least 15k would accomplish the Conley challenge (placing a $100 valuation on a 15k print-run Conley reward with the possibility of it having more upside if needed for a future challenge). I also assumed that I could resell the 5 required moments post-challenge at $15 per (netting $14.25 per).

Right now, the Conley reward would have to be worth a little more than $200 for current prices of the 5 required moments to make sense. Not to mention, proportionally, there'd appear to be more Conley moments hitting the marketplace than the other Seeing Stars moments because some of the latter are still in sealed packs (it wouldn't be a 15k vs 10k comparison, it'd probably be more like a 15k vs 6-8k comparison, so instead of seeing a 3:2 ratio, it might be more like a ~2-2.5:1 ratio...which although not a big difference from the former is still important to consider).

So the conclusion I arrived to is that either: (1) Conley reward is quite overvalued, or (2) many SS (not all) are quite undervalued.

It's up to you to decide. My numbers are estimates based on assumptions I've made and involving current (and last night's) figures.

I vote for 2.

[boxbuster7]

So the speculation is the capela /35000 is needed for the next coolcats challenge? Is that why it is $30?

[Howie7107]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

I vote for 2.

Ehh they were originally, but if they are now it’s not really by much.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

I vote for 2.

I forgot to include that it could be a 1 AND 2 scenario too haha.

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by Howie7107

Ehh they were originally, but if they are now it’s not really by much.

Didn’t say either one was right. Just doing my duty to vote for the candidate that will impact my bottom line more. I’ve got a family to feed.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by Howie7107

Ehh they were originally, but if they are now it’s not really by much.

Personally, I think the Conley is being overvalued.

[ninjacookies]

If a dude like Sabonis is only pulling $150 or less...then....


It's Mike Conley.


Don't overthink this.

[rifleman69]

Originally Posted by whodatbeastly16

Other than cash?
Edit: the Edwards moment is sick, but they really need to do a better job of finding highlights. A lot of these are mediocre, for example I can think of about 10 better Steven Adams dunks or plays in general that are better

Cash is still accepted.

[rifleman69]

Originally Posted by BosCardGuy

"Huh?"


I love how some people just have to resort to playing dumb when their lazy troll efforts get swatted away. Lolol... "Huh?"




Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Believe you're quoting the wrong person.

[rifleman69]

Originally Posted by BosCardGuy

Kinda like how SGA's Prizm RC doesn't have the RC symbol on it and his stuff is 30-40% undervalued because of it.

It's Milos' fault.

[Birdanski]

Originally Posted by whodatbeastly16

Rising Stars just hit their absolute low. Deni only at $410. May as well hold at this point, can’t see it getting any lower than that

My Morant #2021 is down to $1200...dang. Getting harder not to bail..haha

[Vinny1984]

I saw a poll somewhere that asked why you are involved in Topshot. Something crazy like 80% were in it for investment (long/short term, flipping, rip then firesale, etc...). Very few collectors here which is certainly not a shock to me. But this isn’t a bad thing like contrarians are making it out to be. Flipping is fun and it still boggles my mind why it gets such a bad rap.

[b2k1121]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Personally, I think the Conley is being overvalued.

Definitely, it's over $300 now to get them all, wouldn't be surprised if you could get him for $100 in a week.

[Howie7107]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

I saw a poll somewhere that asked why you are involved in Topshot. Something crazy like 80% were in it for investment (long/short term, flipping, rip then firesale, etc...). Very few collectors here which is certainly not a shock to me. But this isn’t a bad thing like contrarians are making it out to be. Flipping is fun and it still boggles my mind why it gets such a bad rap.

Yeah I don’t really see the problem there that many are trying to make it out to be. I imagine the modern physical hobby only skews slightly more towards strictly collecting.

[letsgocapitals]

Completing challenges "worth" it?

[n1nesports]

Something I'm finding very annoying right now is trying to purchase a moment, moment already sold, I have to wait 30 minutes before attempting another purchase cause it counted as a purchase!

[Birdanski]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

I saw a poll somewhere that asked why you are involved in Topshot. Something crazy like 80% were in it for investment (long/short term, flipping, rip then firesale, etc...). Very few collectors here which is certainly not a shock to me. But this isn’t a bad thing like contrarians are making it out to be. Flipping is fun and it still boggles my mind why it gets such a bad rap.

Zero chance that is accurate...just look at the amount of sales on the limited run moments. Most have been sold or are up for sale

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

I saw a poll somewhere that asked why you are involved in Topshot. Something crazy like 80% were in it for investment (long/short term, flipping, rip then firesale, etc...). Very few collectors here which is certainly not a shock to me. But this isn’t a bad thing like contrarians are making it out to be. Flipping is fun and it still boggles my mind why it gets such a bad rap.

I've bought a few cheaper moments I thought were cool I don't think I'll sell unless they go way up. That being said if you forced every single of the whatever it is 250,000 accounts to take a lie detector test on this question it's gotta be way higher than 80%. I believe a minimum of 99% are currently involved in Top Shot for investment/to make money.