NBA Top Shot - High Risk, High Reward?

[rifleman69]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Hopefully I'll be able to buy an XBox or PS5 at retail the next 30 days.

We agree on something!

[Brobocop]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

This really applies to anything right now. There is a downward curve all all things hobby related right now. I just saw where bitcoin is today. We have a problem and potentially dangerous waters ahead with out economy. However, alternative investments seem to hold up over time. Hopefully I'll be able to buy an XBox or PS5 at retail the next 30 days.

I feel like the economy is okay, it’s these crypto vehicles that people think of as long term investments rather than pure speculative investments. I’ll take my boring S&P 500 ETFs over buying into crypto. Feels more like day trading rather than long-term investing.

[omega145]

Originally Posted by Brobocop

How does burning the moment work in terms of the blockchain? Serious question as that would be my only thought on why it hasn't happened yet.

Burning is when crypto is sent to an unused address that can never be claimed so essentially it is lost forever. Top Shot could do this if they really wanted to when they start trading moments for those tokens for season 1 packs and someone have left over minted moments floating around. I honestly don't see it happening though. I would think the company sees this as a long term play and expects to have much more customers in the future who can justify the higher minted moments of 40K+.

Originally Posted by Wildcat55

I hate to start sitting out for these common pack drops but I feel like I’m now wasting $9 to get a few $2 moments I don’t care about. You are almost better off spending that $9 a week buying a couple of $5 moments after the pack release dips. You can get Harden, Giannis, AD, and others for only $6 or so...

Agreed 110%. I'm almost out of Dapper bucks and probably not going to buy any more common packs unless they drop the price to somewhere in the $3-5 range. The limited $14 packs need to include better players especially for higher end packs when they are charging $100+ for other packs. Has there been any talk on dropping the common pack prices eventually?

[benz35]

you guys still making money? the last pack i bought had negative ev lol...

guess im avoiding the holo packs now... dont want my money to burn lol

[Brobocop]

Originally Posted by benz35

you guys still making money? the last pack i bought had negative ev lol...

guess im avoiding the holo packs now... dont want my money to burn lol

Feels like a few pages ago pumpers were saying any pack was can’t miss. I’ll be a long term believer in the platform if they can sustain any interest in it by the time the next season starts.


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[b2k1121]

Originally Posted by benz35

you guys still making money? the last pack i bought had negative ev lol...

guess im avoiding the holo packs now... dont want my money to burn lol

You have to pick your spots now and research what is in the pack, packs aren't automatic profit anymore. The H&S was obviously going to be profitable, the Holo should be even with legendary moments under $1k now, you also get a bunch of MGLE in the pack to make up the difference.

[omega145]

Originally Posted by b2k1121

You have to pick your spots now and research what is in the pack, packs aren't automatic profit anymore.

Pretty much and its no different than any physical packs. People aren't realizing that most moments were/are still overpriced and that putting all of these common moments into play are only creating a more stable platform where not every moment is overpriced just like any physical pack opening doesn't guarantee value. The problem I see moving forward is every common pack being $9 or even more for a digital pack where the EV is negative. I'm not sure how much longer that will be sustainable.

[Duvalier]

Originally Posted by b2k1121

You have to pick your spots now and research what is in the pack, packs aren't automatic profit anymore. The H&S was obviously going to be profitable, the Holo should be even with legendary moments under $1k now, you also get a bunch of MGLE in the pack to make up the difference.

When is the Holo pack drop?

[b2k1121]

Originally Posted by Duvalier

When is the Holo pack drop?

Wouldn't be surprised if it's this week, but don't know, it's soon though.

[CVTS33]

Originally Posted by b2k1121

You have to pick your spots now and research what is in the pack, packs aren't automatic profit anymore. The H&S was obviously going to be profitable, the Holo should be even with legendary moments under $1k now, you also get a bunch of MGLE in the pack to make up the difference.

This is one way of looking at it, but not the complete story. Most people who got the last legendary are still down somewhere between 1K and $0.

This is because they haven't actually sold the Legendary or, possibly, anything else in the pack either. The assumption is that they all could sell what they got at the current prices and get their money back but this is not reality if they all tried to do it.

Very few are even making serious attempts at selling their Holos. Legendary moments from past packs basically never sell unless Dingaling comes along and that only pays one person out.

With the coming pack the supply will increase once again and with that will come motivated sellers out of the gate. These are the group with the best chance at breaking even or making money. The buyers in this class is an extremely limited group and shrinking.

I'd guess there will be -EV with the next holo drop and it will push the previous pack, on average, into -EV as well. Of course, there could be a chance to make money if you strike early, but even then this time there's a very good chance you will still come up short. (Keep in mind, this drop will push some previous holo owners into salvage mode)

[hoopstaj]

Originally Posted by benz35

you guys still making money? the last pack i bought had negative ev lol...

guess im avoiding the holo packs now... dont want my money to burn lol

Just been holding all moments from each pack I’ve gotten, currently up to 82 moments. Hoping some will be in future challenges and can sell then but for the moment just holding everything


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[Duvalier]

Originally Posted by b2k1121

Wouldn't be surprised if it's this week, but don't know, it's soon though.

Thanks

[redsfaithful]

Originally Posted by hoopstaj

Yea just completed too. Like you the it’s a good moment and I like most the guys in the challenge


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I think this will be a good value long run, so I'm in. The Ja reward is great and I think he's going to get a lot of hype this offseason so his moments could go up.

I grabbed everything right around the Hustle & Show pack drop. The challenge card I got from pack I'm valuing at $0 since the rest of the pack paid for it. With that in mind, my total cost to complete was about $130, I don't think I'll profit right away, but I'll have a challenge done and I don't think it'll be a loser long term.

[Archangel1775]

The Ja dunk is pretty sick and when I first saw the HL, I thought they should make it a Moment. I'm glad they did.

[omega145]

Originally Posted by redsfaithful

I think this will be a good value long run, so I'm in. The Ja reward is great and I think he's going to get a lot of hype this offseason so his moments could go up.

Future potential and benefit in having challenges done which can't be weighted either at the moment. Regardless, I'm not chasing after any challenges. I think they are cool but fluctuate the market a bit too much and I'm not spending/wasting money on moments I wouldn't necessarily care about. I do see the benefit in doing this one (which again I won't be doing) as it is fairly cheap to complete it, you get a cool challenge moment from a hot hobby player in Ja and have a completed challenge under your account.

[TFCNB]

Market cap down to $636,000,000. Doesn't seem promising with all these new account promotions and free Dapper that has been handed out lately.

[benz35]

waiting for lebron all star to go down to $100 and ill buy.. i pity the guys buying lebron 3

[drobfan8]

Originally Posted by TFCNB

Market cap down to $636,000,000. Doesn't seem promising with all these new account promotions and free Dapper that has been handed out lately.

I'm still a massive believer in it. But I withdrew some $$$ and am putting my money elsewhere I couldn't watch it just continue to go down. And they have gone down another 25%. Better off gambling it right now on the Playoffs.

Things will settle once TS bottoms out and slowly build back up.

Don't forget cards have tanked also from the peak. I'm lucky I didn't really "invest" and was only buying PC cards.

Originally Posted by benz35

waiting for lebron all star to go down to $100 and ill buy.. i pity the guys buying lebron 3

That would be a crazy price. Why pity the LeBron 3 guys? You mean the ones that bought a lot higher?

I'm still halves with a friend on a nice low # Steph ASG and a Bron SS.

Prices are baaaaaadd.

[DSni13]

I had a Bron SS I thought was a bargain around 900. Took a loss at 700 to have some balance and picked up a Luka ASG around 350.

Seeing the Bron now would have been uke: The Luka ASG is still down another 100, but I figured being a rare, would hold up better, and rebound better, than the Bron if things turn around.

Compared to other Luka's, that rare ASG seems a bit undervalued.

[rifleman69]

Originally Posted by drobfan8

Things will settle once TS bottoms out and slowly build back up.

How will you know it's the bottom?

[Brobocop]

Originally Posted by rifleman69

How will you know it's the bottom?

Catching a falling knife applies I believe. This feels like it has a long way to go before hitting bottom. Again, I’m not trying to hate but to think this isn’t becoming a Titanic type disaster is approaching denial levels of emotion.


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[rifleman69]

Originally Posted by Brobocop

Catching a falling knife applies I believe. This feels like it has a long way to go before hitting bottom. Again, I’m not trying to hate but to think this isn’t becoming a Titanic type disaster is approaching denial levels of emotion.

You nailed it. Technically $1 a moment is the "floor" since the software still hasn't been updated to allow for cheaper.

[Brobocop]

Originally Posted by rifleman69

You nailed it. Technically $1 a moment is the "floor" since the software still hasn't been updated to allow for cheaper.

I just recall people on here saying $1 a moment wasn’t possible and if it happened, they’d scoop them up.


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[Howie7107]

Originally Posted by rifleman69

How will you know it's the bottom?

Originally Posted by Brobocop

Catching a falling knife applies I believe. This feels like it has a long way to go before hitting bottom. Again, I’m not trying to hate but to think this isn’t becoming a Titanic type disaster is approaching denial levels of emotion.

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This is the same guy that was calling the bottom in well over a month ago and market cap is down like 30%+ since then. Not exactly weighty.

Fwiw, I cashed out the last of my Dappa dolla bills. It was pretty obvious months ago that there wasn’t enough of a collector base to support the infinite supply of moments. The bottom is still so far away.

[rifleman69]

Originally Posted by Howie7107

This is the same guy that was calling the bottom in well over a month ago and market cap is down like 30%+ since then. Not exactly weighty.

Fwiw, I cashed out the last of my Dappa dolla bills. It was pretty obvious months ago that there wasn’t enough of a collector base to support the infinite supply of moments. The bottom is still so far away.

Well we don't hold it against said person who said the bottom was in over a month ago....we just nod and smile.