Regular service returning December 1st?

[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by rylin34

This take is correct. Not sure if anyone see the videos from Retro Hoop Collector on the weekly PSA output, but they just did 210k last week. Nat says their run-rate will be around 200k per week (10.5M PER YEAR). The total graded universe for all collectables is 37M. They'll never sustain demand of over 10M cards without a cheaper price point. There is only so much demand for collectors who want a slab and those looking to make a profit.

There are definitely those who are registry people and protection people, but I would say ROI rules the day in the grading realm. I like having older cards in my collection graded for protection, but ROI matters and paying $50 or more for a regular order, or whatever it might be, if not reasonable for the average collector. I also sell on eBay and at card shows and graded PSA slabs makes it easier.

[rogueriver]

To everyone saying the market is down, I will agree if you are buying overproduced base cards of Lebron than yes.....However if you are buying 90s Jordan and Griffey then the market is still strong. I know because that is what I collect and I keep getting outbid on higher and higher prices.

[k13]

Originally Posted by rogueriver

To everyone saying the market is down, I will agree if you are buying overproduced base cards of Lebron than yes.....However if you are buying 90s Jordan and Griffey then the market is still strong. I know because that is what I collect and I keep getting outbid on higher and higher prices.

Ultimate/Spa rookie autos of Lebron are down too..
Forget about base.

[cafenjl]

I'm not an expert. Just a casual collector. But wouldn't it be smart for PSA to do what PC Sportscards does? Make grading Ultra Modern (most recent 5 years) far more expensive. Clearly, the Declared Value model broke. If they come back and say, "Anything within the last 5 years is minimum $50/card," that would both protect them from being flooded, AND allow people doing registries (like my 1980s Cubs sets) to continue doing our thing at $10-$15 per card. Maybe make it even more specific, "Base RCs from the most previous 5 yrs are minimum $50." Or $100. Whatever. Something punitive enough that keeps those cards from overwhelming everything else.

Again. Just a thought from a very casual collector.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by cafenjl

I'm not an expert. Just a casual collector. But wouldn't it be smart for PSA to do what PC Sportscards does? Make grading Ultra Modern (most recent 5 years) far more expensive. Clearly, the Declared Value model broke. If they come back and say, "Anything within the last 5 years is minimum $50/card," that would both protect them from being flooded, AND allow people doing registries (like my 1980s Cubs sets) to continue doing our thing at $10-$15 per card. Maybe make it even more specific, "Base RCs from the most previous 5 yrs are minimum $50." Or $100. Whatever. Something punitive enough that keeps those cards from overwhelming everything else.

Again. Just a thought from a very casual collector.

Sounds like you are approaching it from the angle of what benefits you. you’d like to grade cheap registry cards and get fast turnaround. I’m not sure why that should be favored over someone else who wants to grade ultra modern rookies.

Either way, i believe there are a lot of cards people are holding and waiting to submit at a cheap price, which will trigger round 2 of a backlog. The million dollar question is how big that stack of cards people are holding is.

Once round 2 is worked off though I don’t know that the volume of $25 submissions on a weekly basis would exceed their grading capacity. In fact i think it wouldn’t.


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[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by BRob1

Sounds like you are approaching it from the angle of what benefits you. you’d like to grade cheap registry cards and get fast turnaround. I’m not sure why that should be favored over someone else who wants to grade ultra modern rookies.

Either way, i believe there are a lot of cards people are holding and waiting to submit at a cheap price, which will trigger round 2 of a backlog. The million dollar question is how big that stack of cards people are holding is.

Once round 2 is worked off though I don’t know that the volume of $25 submissions on a weekly basis would exceed their grading capacity. In fact i think it wouldn’t.


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I finally got around to counting my stack, It's about 550. I'd say about 100 of those are complete trash at this point and wouldn't go in no matter how cheap it got and about 100 could go in at a higher price point. That leaves about 350 ready to go at $15 or less.

The good news (for everybody elese), if it's a stated 6 month turnaround I won't even start sending in until June or July because it's all baseball. I don't want to get a bunch of baseball in middle of the offseason doldrums like I did this year.

[rylin34]

Originally Posted by cafenjl

I'm not an expert. Just a casual collector. But wouldn't it be smart for PSA to do what PC Sportscards does? Make grading Ultra Modern (most recent 5 years) far more expensive. Clearly, the Declared Value model broke. If they come back and say, "Anything within the last 5 years is minimum $50/card," that would both protect them from being flooded, AND allow people doing registries (like my 1980s Cubs sets) to continue doing our thing at $10-$15 per card. Maybe make it even more specific, "Base RCs from the most previous 5 yrs are minimum $50." Or $100. Whatever. Something punitive enough that keeps those cards from overwhelming everything else.

Again. Just a thought from a very casual collector.

Topps Flagship baseball would barely see any rookies submitted. How many base card psa 10 are trading above 50, let alone in any profit territory? This would surely limit demand overall.

[notfast]

Originally Posted by cafenjl

I'm not an expert. Just a casual collector. But wouldn't it be smart for PSA to do what PC Sportscards does? Make grading Ultra Modern (most recent 5 years) far more expensive. Clearly, the Declared Value model broke. If they come back and say, "Anything within the last 5 years is minimum $50/card," that would both protect them from being flooded, AND allow people doing registries (like my 1980s Cubs sets) to continue doing our thing at $10-$15 per card. Maybe make it even more specific, "Base RCs from the most previous 5 yrs are minimum $50." Or $100. Whatever. Something punitive enough that keeps those cards from overwhelming everything else.

Again. Just a thought from a very casual collector.

PSA raised prices on ultra modern thus PC sports cards raised their price on ultra modern.

[cafenjl]

Originally Posted by BRob1

Sounds like you are approaching it from the angle of what benefits you. you’d like to grade cheap registry cards and get fast turnaround. I’m not sure why that should be favored over someone else who wants to grade ultra modern rookies.

Yes and no. Of course I'd love it if the things I submit were affordable and came back quicker. But, I'm not wrong in that Ultra Modern base RCs are what's gumming up the works. That is going to have to be addressed in one of two ways (or a combination): limit submissions or up capacity to handle the submissions.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by cafenjl

Yes and no. Of course I'd love it if the things I submit were affordable and came back quicker. But, I'm not wrong in that Ultra Modern base RCs are what's gumming up the works. That is going to have to be addressed in one of two ways (or a combination): limit submissions or up capacity to handle the submissions.

Everyone has a right to submit what they want, whether it’s popular or not. PSA’s goal isn’t to prevent submissions from coming in, it’s to get their capacity up to match consumer demand. They are already down the road of upping capacity.

I have said before they should open submissions (when the time is right) and acknowledge it could be temporary based on what happens. The biggest unknown in the whole process is what will happen when/if a $25 level opens up. How many cards exactly will come in.

If they see an avalanche coming in I would rather see them make submissions only available to members and cap what each person can send in rather than say we won’t take cards from what is actively being opened in the market. Not being able to grade current rookies at a reasonable price has been one of the things that has most stifled the hobby over the past 9 months.


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[cafenjl]

Originally Posted by BRob1

Not being able to grade current rookies at a reasonable price has been one of the things that has most stifled the hobby over the past 9 months.

Being able to grade current rookies at a reasonable price is exactly what caused the problem. And I agree completely everyone has a right to grade what they want. I’d never say otherwise. But the question remains how to handle that base RC volume to keep collectors like you (and others like me) happy. I think all TPGs are currently trying to figure that out.

[FT35]

I think what’s important to remember is when it was possible to affordably grade low end cards—PSA went outside of the hobby and it created its own full-blown industry. It was there before, but exploded when non-collectors realized they could build a sustainable business model off of buying cards, grading them @ $12/15 bulk pricing then selling them for life-sustaining profits. Most cards were suddenly “grade candidates.”

Taking this level out will make the market more “hobby-like” again like it was before. It will take many people out of the card game—and that will allow them to lower prices. If that’s what they are looking for—the ability to grade stuff for collectors and the hardcore flippers, great. But if they want the industry they had before—where their service was at the heartbeat of it all—$12-15 would be what gets it there because that brought businesses in. And they might not have the same shot at that without all those who left, returning. We’d have to see big buyer efforts to drive up prices again to bring the people back to get the ball rolling again because a large chunk of the “buy raw-send to PSA-send to consignment” industry has moved on for the time being.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by cafenjl

Being able to grade current rookies at a reasonable price is exactly what caused the problem. And I agree completely everyone has a right to grade what they want. I’d never say otherwise. But the question remains how to handle that base RC volume to keep collectors like you (and others like me) happy. I think all TPGs are currently trying to figure that out.

The hobby is not in the same place as it was a year ago. base rookies don’t command what they did. They are the only thing that will come close to filling psa’s capacity. 80’s registry is a drop in the bucket. PSA may want to serve registry folks as a goodwill gesture to people who have been around a long time, but that won’t pay the bills. Letting people grade base prizm rookies will.


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[pachyderm]

Originally Posted by BRob1

The hobby is not in the same place as it was a year ago. base rookies don’t command what they did. They are the only thing that will come close to filling psa’s capacity. 80’s registry is a drop in the bucket. PSA may want to serve registry folks as a goodwill gesture to people who have been around a long time, but that won’t pay the bills. Letting people grade base prizm rookies will.


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People will want to grade base rookie as long as they can make a profit. I don't understand why a $1 card raw suddenly turns into $30 when it is graded a PSA 10 with a gem rate of over 50%. Raw prices have to converge with graded prices. There are only so many people out there to buy these graded cards.

[rylin34]

Originally Posted by pachyderm

People will want to grade base rookie as long as they can make a profit. I don't understand why a $1 card raw suddenly turns into $30 when it is graded a PSA 10 with a gem rate of over 50%. Raw prices have to converge with graded prices. There are only so many people out there to buy these graded cards.

I'm not sure what the spread will or should be, but people will always be willing to pay for certainty. Buying raw cards on eBay or other sites is such a gamble since we know people by nature are holding back their possible GEM candidates vs. listing slightly flawed cards. Not to mention cards that we all send off thinking they could be 10's to only come back a 9. Give me the certainty all day long (30X might be high) but slabs preserve condition forever so I understand the appeal.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by pachyderm

People will want to grade base rookie as long as they can make a profit. I don't understand why a $1 card raw suddenly turns into $30 when it is graded a PSA 10 with a gem rate of over 50%. Raw prices have to converge with graded prices. There are only so many people out there to buy these graded cards.

Because it costs time and money to sub. Ultra modern was $25 a card before the shutdown. I’ll gladly pay $5 to remove uncertainty and the other costs and hassle associated with submitting.

I do Pokemon. I’ll pay $40-75 for common card gems from the last few years. The cards aren’t that condition sensitive, but finding raw gems is hard because of how these cards usually get stored. And I’m not interested in waiting another two years to get them back.

[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Because it costs time and money to sub. Ultra modern was $25 a card before the shutdown. I’ll gladly pay $5 to remove uncertainty and the other costs and hassle associated with submitting.

I do Pokemon. I’ll pay $40-75 for common card gems from the last few years. The cards aren’t that condition sensitive, but finding raw gems is hard because of how these cards usually get stored. And I’m not interested in waiting another two years to get them back.

WOTC raw gems are very hard to come by and those who collect this era will take graded copies first and pay a premium to have them. PSA 9 and some PSA 8 and up of key character and 1st Edition cards in NR-MT and up grades are profitable, another reason my son has a 50 card 1st edition submission sitting in assembly with PSA. It was logged 01/09/21

[learning]

Originally Posted by pachyderm

People will want to grade base rookie as long as they can make a profit. I don't understand why a $1 card raw suddenly turns into $30 when it is graded a PSA 10 with a gem rate of over 50%. Raw prices have to converge with graded prices. There are only so many people out there to buy these graded cards.

$1 to $30 is right where it should be IMO. Just enough for someone to be rewarded for their time in acquiring, Reviewing, prepping, and sending to PSA and then waiting close to a year for someone to be able to buy a PSA 10 of their favorite players

[k13]

Originally Posted by rylin34

slabs preserve condition forever so I understand the appeal.

That's just an assumption when it won't be true.

[redgem]

When I heard that PSA may reopen Regular at $100 I sent in 150 higher value cards at $150/card for Express turnaround. I'll have those cards back by year end and I'll get much more than $50 additional for selling those cards before the tsunami of cards are submitted at the $100 level. Those cards won't be returned until the Summer or later. It's an economic equation.

[TpocketT]

Originally Posted by redgem

When I heard that PSA may reopen Regular at $100 I sent in 150 higher value cards at $150/card for Express turnaround. I'll have those cards back by year end and I'll get much more than $50 additional for selling those cards before the tsunami of cards are submitted at the $100 level. Those cards won't be returned until the Summer or later. It's an economic equation.

Why on earth do you think they won't get returned until summer? Express is turning around in like 2-3 weeks for most it seems. Why would regular, at only a 33% lower cost to grade, suddenly take 6+ months? The increase in subs will not be THAT huge. I'd guess folks who send in cards on Dec 1 for regular will have them back in less than 2 months.

[KPOD]

Originally Posted by redgem

When I heard that PSA may reopen Regular at $100 I sent in 150 higher value cards at $150/card for Express turnaround. I'll have those cards back by year end and I'll get much more than $50 additional for selling those cards before the tsunami of cards are submitted at the $100 level. Those cards won't be returned until the Summer or later. It's an economic equation.

Sounds like a problem from having "time sensitive" cards instead of cards that will still be worth near what they are today, in the future.

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by KPOD

Sounds like a problem from having "time sensitive" cards instead of cards that will still be worth near what they are today, in the future.

And there’s nothing wrong with that

[redgem]

Originally Posted by TpocketT

Why on earth do you think they won't get returned until summer? Express is turning around in like 2-3 weeks for most it seems. Why would regular, at only a 33% lower cost to grade, suddenly take 6+ months? The increase in subs will not be THAT huge. I'd guess folks who send in cards on Dec 1 for regular will have them back in less than 2 months.

I think there will be thousands of cards sent in at the Regular $100 level. That $50 reduction from Express is huge given the resale value of PSA 10 cards. Express was taking a week or two prior to Nat leaking that info about bringing Regular back, now Express is taking a month. I think there are alot of folks who are doing the math and for an extra $50 to beat the crowd and get graded before the herd hits, its worth it. Just my opinion.

[HalfNipponese]

I feel like the poorest person on this forum.