Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[Cardboard Dawg]

Went to the Mid-South Card Show this past weekend in Bartlett, TN. First show I've been to.

Highlights:

- Saw the Pelican cases. Eavesdropping on conversations, I did not hear a dealer wanting to buy.
- Lot of football and basketball. Good amount of vintage there, too.
- A LOT of sealed wax.
- Passed right by any dealer sitting on their phone. And there were quite a few.
- Got a great deal on some players I personally collect -- didn't use comps either!
- Got told that I can't afford a BGS RC auto of Matthew Stafford, and this dealer also had a Joc Pederson BCA he wanted $50 for that laughed at me when I asked if he'd negotiate.

Other than that, was a fun time!

[mc1]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

The low side of comps are likely reliable -- shilling and fake sales are meant to push prices higher or keep them high. The low end is where I'd look to establish a price basis. I'd also look at the prices of similar cards to get a feel for relative value.

Nah, thats not how it works. I regularly list cards that sell at auction for twice or more the price at BIN/BO. They usually sell. It happens, theres a range for prices, not a static one.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by mc1

Nah, thats not how it works. I regularly list cards that sell at auction for twice or more the price at BIN/BO. They usually sell. It happens, theres a range for prices, not a static one.

Yes, there's always a range of prices. You can always point out sale prices that are double comps. What I was referring to was a general method of assigning values to cards. I never said it was a selling strategy or that it was perfect.

With shill bidding and fake sales rampant in the hobby, sales comps are heavily flawed. But nevertheless, it is what buyers and sellers will often utilize in pricing cards.

[thenightman]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

The low side of comps are likely reliable -- shilling and fake sales are meant to push prices higher or keep them high. The low end is where I'd look to establish a price basis. I'd also look at the prices of similar cards to get a feel for relative value.

It's funny because I've never had a sell where the buyer didn't pay. I set my prices as the average of the last 5 comps, regardless of how they sold.

[thenightman]

Originally Posted by redauto5

Baseball is hard. It's one of the reasons I love it so much - it transcends physical ability and is so much more strategic/analytical by nature than the other sports. You can compile big stats in basketball just because the players around you suck, or because you're a ball hog and not a team player. Baseball stat compilation is to a very large degree a players own doing - period - unlike the other major sports. He owns those stats, he isn't just in a system that is beneficial to him.

To see baseball players who can semi consistently rattle off 4-5+ WAR seasons means they are very good at what they do. If I can buy those guys cards cheap because other people would rather buy empty stat players in other sports, COOL!!!

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

What is Ozzie Albies? Like 5'8" 160lbs? Yet, he hits homers with the best of them.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by thenightman

It's funny because I've never had a sell where the buyer didn't pay. I set my prices as the average of the last 5 comps, regardless of how they sold.

Well that shows comps are the guiding force in most sales. That's why shill bidding and fake sales work -- they exploit a need of buyers and sellers to use comps.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Comps on cards < #/25 are mostly meaningless. As are grades.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by BBases31

No. He is leading the NL in WAR, higher OPS than Acuna. He's 22



Bruh. Try following the actual sport instead of just cards

Edit: I did a quick look through your post history because I thought no way those 15,000 posts are coming from baseball and yup, nearly all NBA and NFL. Makes sense now. I promise Corbin will be on the basketball collector crossover's, hype chasing radar by the All-Star break

Thanks for checking my post history. I watch PLENTY of baseball. Just because I don't post in the BB thread doesn't mean anything.


I'm just not sold on him yet. Could he be a beast? Absolutely. He could also crash and burn like several other hot rookies. I'm rooting for the kid and looking forward to seeing him when I go to Arizona in wo months.

[thenightman]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Well that shows comps are the guiding force in most sales. That's why shill bidding and fake sales work -- they exploit a need of buyers and sellers to use comps.

So, to sum up, you're saying, and correct me if I'm wrong, I should ignore comps in favor of the lowest side of comps. What if they were also shilled/fake?

[xposipx]

I know there’s some people that discredit and disparage the reports on smaller shows, but I attended one in Salisbury, North Carolina that was relatively big. All the dealers from the Charlotte shows were there and had good stuff. The pelican cases have definitely gone down, but the old disgruntled, smelly, overweight population was back. It truly felt like 2017 (and before) again. Lots of foot traffic, decent money being spent, but definitely more like 2019 and before then 2020-21.

I don’t really look for a high end or comp prices, but the value boxes were great at this particular show.

[BBases31]

What has gone up over the past year or two while the whole market continues to tank? Bonds, apparently. Kershaw is up a ton since 2021. What else? Players? Specific inserts?

[regularp]

Originally Posted by FT35

The problem here is that baseball has the stars but people expect immediate gratification—often. 0-4 days are more common than HR’s in baseball. It’s always been that way. It’s not basketball—Giannis might not ever shoot 0-22, let alone on a somewhat regular basis. Mahomes will rarely throw for 0 passing yards—let alone somewhat often. Yet you have baseball superstars who draw the collar a couple times a week.

Ohtani is becoming everyone’s favorite drug simply because there’s a high dose of him. We’re watching many exciting, HOF-level players now—playing a game in a time when league officials can’t leave their hands off the ever-changing product—trying to deliver that gratification to the fans. As long as pitchers can throw 100 mph dancing round balls to guys with round bats, 0-4’s are going to come in bunches—even for the superstars…but at the end of the day, the talent is on the field playing at a high level.

No, the problem is the current stars are not consistently putting up stats to match the greats of the past. The game needs some Pujols, Griffey, Cabrera production for many years in a row from a few of these guys.

With the NBA, you know what kinda production is coming from Jokic, Giannis, Luka, LeBron, Curry, Embiid, Durant, Booker, Tatum, etc. year after year. We're seeing guys put up stats and performances that line up with greats of the past in the NBA.

We are rarely seeing that with MLB stars. It's good for the growth of the game to have current stars you can compare to Mantle, Williams, Aaron, Ruth, Mays, Griffey, Pujols, Cabrera, etc.

You can have the discussion with NBA and NFL stars of today.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by regularp

No, the problem is the current stars are not consistently putting up stats to match the greats of the past. The game needs some Pujols, Griffey, Cabrera production for many years in a row from a few of these guys.

Trout, Ohtani, Mookie, Acuna, Judge....... You just don't pay attention to the sport. Judge last year just broke one of the biggest records in the game that stood for 60 years. The arguable greatest pitcher of all time in this 150 year sport, at the very least top 3, is still going strong in Kershaw.

I am shocked that this guy's signature includes 3 basketball guys and he's got alot of posts in the Basketball forum

[atk825]

Originally Posted by BBases31

Trout, Ohtani, Mookie, Acuna, Judge....... You just don't pay attention to the sport. Judge last year just broke one of the biggest records in the game that stood for 60 years. The arguable greatest pitcher of all time in this 150 year sport, at the very least top 3, is still going strong in Kershaw.

I am shocked that this guy's signature includes 3 basketball guys and he's got alot of posts in the Basketball forum

Clayton Kershaw is 205-91. It's absurd.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by atk825

Clayton Kershaw is 205-91. It's absurd.

We're on season 16 and he's only had three seasons with an ERA over 3, one of which was his debut season at 20. But according to that guy there's no all time greats left

And it's funny because he doesn't even understand his own sport of basketball when he says so many guys now have their stats and numbers line up with "greats of the past in the NBA". Yea because the pace is 1000x what it was back then and the game is called significantly softer than it was in the past and defenses are at their all time worst efficiency wise

[regularp]

Enjoy the echo chamber, boys.

[Chicosbailbonds]

Originally Posted by xposipx

I know there’s some people that discredit and disparage the reports on smaller shows, but I attended one in Solsberry North Carolina that was relatively big. All the dealers from the Charlotte shows were there and had good stuff. The pelican cases have definitely gone down, but the old disgruntled, smelly, overweight population was back. It truly felt like 2017 (and before) again.

I don’t really look for a high end or comp prices, but the value boxes were great at this particular show.

I think the smaller shows give a better picture of the health of the hobby. The major shows sell themselves.

[Chicosbailbonds]

Originally Posted by regularp

No, the problem is the current stars are not consistently putting up stats to match the greats of the past. The game needs some Pujols, Griffey, Cabrera production for many years in a row from a few of these guys.

With the NBA, you know what kinda production is coming from Jokic, Giannis, Luka, LeBron, Curry, Embiid, Durant, Booker, Tatum, etc. year after year. We're seeing guys put up stats and performances that line up with greats of the past in the NBA.

We are rarely seeing that with MLB stars. It's good for the growth of the game to have current stars you can compare to Mantle, Williams, Aaron, Ruth, Mays, Griffey, Pujols, Cabrera, etc.

You can have the discussion with NBA and NFL stars of today.

Cabrera has been a bum for seven years now. While collecting $210 mil, his WAR combined is -1.9 in that time.

[solt0131]

Originally Posted by BBases31

What has gone up over the past year or two while the whole market continues to tank? Bonds, apparently. Kershaw is up a ton since 2021. What else? Players? Specific inserts?

What has gone up is the demand for cheap stuff and value boxes. I don’t think demand has ever been higher for cards $10 and less.

[Boo]

Kershaw top 3 all time...LMAO!!

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by regularp

With the NBA, you know what kinda production is coming from Jokic, Giannis, Luka, LeBron, Curry, Embiid, Durant, Booker, Tatum, etc. year after year. We're seeing guys put up stats and performances that line up with greats of the past in the NBA.

Because offense has never been easier thanks to these clowns giving zero effort on defense. But I hope these morons continue on their current path.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by thenightman

So, to sum up, you're saying, and correct me if I'm wrong, I should ignore comps in favor of the lowest side of comps. What if they were also shilled/fake?

My theory is low-side comps are much less likely in general to be the result of shill bidding or fake sales due to shill bidding and fake sales intending to raise prices or maintain high prices.

Low-side sales are a better gauge of the true market value of cards. But that's only in a general sense. There are always outliers and new high prices are regularly being set.

In terms of a selling strategy, pricing and selling cards is an art form -- not a science. Comps are but one tool in the pricing and selling of cards. Shill bidding and fake sales obscure true comps, so it's best to study a given card's sales history before coming up with a price.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by regularp

No, the problem is the current stars are not consistently putting up stats to match the greats of the past. The game needs some Pujols, Griffey, Cabrera production for many years in a row from a few of these guys.

With the NBA, you know what kinda production is coming from Jokic, Giannis, Luka, LeBron, Curry, Embiid, Durant, Booker, Tatum, etc. year after year. We're seeing guys put up stats and performances that line up with greats of the past in the NBA.

We are rarely seeing that with MLB stars. It's good for the growth of the game to have current stars you can compare to Mantle, Williams, Aaron, Ruth, Mays, Griffey, Pujols, Cabrera, etc.

You can have the discussion with NBA and NFL stars of today.

Pujols, Griffey and Cabrera were awesome for a decade and then nose dived in performance. They are examples of contrasting performance over a career.

Trout has often been compared to Mantle. Ohtani has been compared to Ruth. Judge was compared to Bonds last season during his pursuit of 62 home runs.

The younger players in MLB have been overhyped. Players like Vlad Jr, Soto, Tatis Jr had one great season apiece but couldn't maintain it. MLB pitching is really hard and young player are particularly susceptible to regression in performance.

[mc1]

Originally Posted by BBases31

And it's funny because he doesn't even understand his own sport of basketball when he says so many guys now have their stats and numbers line up with "greats of the past in the NBA". Yea because the pace is 1000x what it was back then and the game is called significantly softer than it was in the past and defenses are at their all time worst efficiency wise

You must have never watched the NBA back when Showtime was around. The Lakers and a few other teams all averaged 115-118 ppg for years. No wonder that kid Jordan averaged 36-37. Such great defense! They didnt even shoot that many 3s back then.

[Philthy]

If anyone is in the NE/IA area, theres a show in Bellevue on the 25th that I'll be setup at. Never been to this show as either an attendee or dealer, but I have heard positive things.