**The Perennial MIKE TROUT Thread**

[eephuspitch]

Originally Posted by atk825

Dude is 85 WAR through his age 31 season. That you are writing him off is pretty funny.

It will never be good enough apparently. Such are axes to grind.

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by eephuspitch

So he's 31 and done, case closed. Got it. Ok. Like I said, I don't think he's a top 10 or even 15 guy but top 50, quite possibly...and there aren't many players over the last 50 years that fit into that bucket.

I never said he was done. I said he will continue to decline. He most likely wont reach 500 homers. He will retire sooner than many think. He's definitely not done, but we all know how this ends for injury proned, getting older players. You know better than that.

[atk825]

Originally Posted by eephuspitch

Jackie is arguably the most recognizable baseball player than perhaps Babe Ruth, he rightfully has a special place in baseball (and sports history). But he's not a top 15 greatest players of all time. I'm sorry.

And neither will Trout be.

Again, he had no career before age 28 and was still 65 WAR including leading the league 3 times. He's statistically up there with the absolute best, especially when you consider him not having a career prior to age 28 wasn't his fault.

[jhssketchcards]

Originally Posted by atk825

Dude is 85 WAR through his age 31 season. That you are writing him off is pretty funny.

No one is writing him off but your saying he will 100% guaranteed he’ll return as a dominant player?


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[atk825]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

I never said he was done. I said he will continue to decline. He most likely wont reach 500 homers. He will retire sooner than many think. He's definitely not done, but we all know how this ends for injury proned, getting older players. You know better than that.

He's 132 HRs away and is under contract for 7 more seasons. He's an overwhelming favorite to reach 500.

[BigSeph]

Originally Posted by atk825

The nice thing with standardized stats is that it accounts for era.

No, it tries to account for era but the adjustments are chosen by human beings. And human beings have a long track record of injecting their own belief systems into data adjustments.

https://sabr.org/journal/article/ass...flaws-in-jaws/

And there are multiple definitions of WAR that sabermetrics guys can't even agree on.

It's almost like Billy Beane and Bill James' affinity for walks has been baked into the WAR formula to penalize pre-expansion era players, and the "defensive players up the middle should get a bonus to WAR" magically only applies a +2.5 to today's CF, but used to penalize CFs in the 1930s with a -2.

After digging through it pretty obsessively over the past week I find a lot of the adjustments for position and era to be completely arbitrary.

Look at who developed these player value systems and what their belief system is. How much input did traditionalists have into the development of advanced analytics and player values? I'd be willing to bet not much.

[atk825]

Originally Posted by jhssketchcards

No one is writing him off but your saying he will 100% guaranteed he’ll return as a dominant player?


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I mean he was a fairly dominant player this year even with a slip in production. It's not like a broken hand bone is a long term concern.

These are the metrics of a fairly dominant player: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

[BigSeph]

Originally Posted by eephuspitch

That's sort of the point I'm making. Again, I'm not trying to minimize his mounting track record of injuries but so far none are chronic, they would be defined as fluke. He doesn't have a fitness issue, for example. Clearly the shorten pandemic season wasn't his fault. And when he's been on the field he's performed at an elite level. He has an OPS+ last year of 176 and 194 the year before that.

The description of his back condition that he was diagnosed with last year almost always has the word "chronic" attached to it.

So you can't say that one isn't chronic. It will stick with him the rest of his life, he will have to stay on top of it and manage it forever.

[eephuspitch]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

I never said he was done. I said he will continue to decline. He most likely wont reach 500 homers. He will retire sooner than many think. He's definitely not done, but we all know how this ends for injury proned, getting older players. You know better than that.

Fair enough. Let's make a bet on the 500 homers. Nothing crazy but set it up and let's do it.

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by atk825

Dude is 85 WAR through his age 31 season. That you are writing him off is pretty funny.

Once again, learn to read. Im not writing anyone off. Type with your brain and stop letting your emotions and feelings for the player creep in. Im telling you he will struggle more and more each and every year he continues to play. As does EVERY single aging, injury prone player. The idea that he's going to just become some mythical legend, hit a ton of homers, lead the league in stats, etc is funny. He will start to limp towards the end. You guys can continue to hug your WAR number.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

Inner circle is legendary, God like status. Inner circle isn't just about stats (which Trout doesn't really have, and wont).

Yep...

For me, the inner circle is "can you make a reasonable case that this player is the GOAT".

So Babe Ruth is an easy inner circle guy. Mays as well. Bonds, Cobb, Aaron. And a few more.

They don't have to win out in the arguments, they just need to not be laughed out of the argument.

[ThoseBackPages]

i will be nude at the funeral

[BigSeph]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Top 5% of the HOF is about 13 names, so let’s just extend it to a more natural 15

Ruth
Cobb
Wagner
Mathewson
Johnson
Young
Gehrig
T. Williams
Aaron
Mays
Mantle
Musial
J. Robinson
Clemente
Pujols when he gets there


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Bonds and Clemens not on it, can't take it seriously.

[atk825]

Originally Posted by BigSeph

No, it tries to account for era but the adjustments are chosen by human beings. And human beings have a long track record of injecting their own belief systems into data adjustments.

https://sabr.org/journal/article/ass...flaws-in-jaws/

And there are multiple definitions of WAR that sabermetrics guys can't even agree on.

It's almost like Billy Beane and Bill James' affinity for walks has been baked into the WAR formula to penalize pre-expansion era players, and the "defensive players up the middle should get a bonus to WAR" magically only applies a +2.5 to today's CF, but used to penalize CFs in the 1930s with a -2.

After digging through it pretty obsessively over the past week I find a lot of the adjustments for position and era to be completely arbitrary.

Look at who developed these player value systems and what their belief system is. How much input did traditionalists have into the development of advanced analytics and player values? I'd be willing to bet not much.

I am not talking about WAR. OPS+ and wRC+ are both standardized stats accounting for era and ballpark. It's not perfect but it's certainly a good compass to point you in the right direction.

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by eephuspitch

Fair enough. Let's make a bet on the 500 homers. Nothing crazy but set it up and let's do it.

Done. Send me a DM. Want to bet on years left in the league as well? Let's make it fun.

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by atk825

He's 132 HRs away and is under contract for 7 more seasons. He's an overwhelming favorite to reach 500.

Send me a DM for a bet if your confident. I dont think he finishes that contract.

[atk825]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

Once again, learn to read. Im not writing anyone off. Type with your brain and stop letting your emotions and feelings for the player creep in. Im telling you he will struggle more and more each and every year he continues to play. As does EVERY single aging, injury prone player. The idea that he's going to just become some mythical legend, hit a ton of homers, lead the league in stats, etc is funny. He will start to limp towards the end. You guys can continue to hug your WAR number.

Here's the thing: He doesn't have to lead the league in anything at this point. He's already done enough of that. He just needs to play, of which he still does that at a fairly high level.

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

i will be nude at the funeral

Im nude right now, stuck to the leather seat Im sitting in.

[atk825]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

Send me a DM for a bet if your confident. I dont think he finishes that contract.

I mean he's certainly not going to give back the money he's owed.

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by atk825

Here's the thing: He doesn't have to lead the league in anything at this point. He's already done enough of that. He just needs to play, of which he still does that at a fairly high level...when he's actually available to play.

You forgot to finish your sentence. He will start missing more and more games every single year. The family man will get frustrated and will leave this game sooner than most expect.

[oplum29]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Let me pose a hypothetical…

At the end of Ty Cobb’s life he said that Willie Mays was the only player he would pay admission to see play.

That was the once greatest player of all time talking about the eventual GOAT.

So let’s say Cobb, Ruth, Ted Williams, Mantle, Aaron, and Mays are having dinner. Mike Trout is on television. Do you think they’re talking about his f***ing WAR or do you think they’re all marveling at how much of a stud he is?

It doesn’t matter where we hold him in the rankings, what matters is what Trout’s peers think and his peers will someday be the GOATs. Something tells me the GOATs would admire Mike Trout’s talent


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prime Trout or prime Griffey????

Go...........

[atk825]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

You forgot to finish your sentence. He will start missing more and more games every single year. The family man will get frustrated and will leave this game sooner than most expect.

He's only not played 100 games once. And he's likely to play the 19 games needed this year.

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by atk825

He's only not played 100 games once. And he's likely to play the 19 games needed this year.

Cool. What kind of homer numbers are you projecting for each year left on his current contract?

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by oplum29

prime Trout or prime Griffey????

Go...........

Griffey because of the juice and the luxury of facing 91 mph meatballs 3x through the lineup each night




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[atk825]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

Cool. What kind of homer numbers are you projecting for each year left on his current contract?

I'd think 25 is a pretty conservative estimate.