**The Perennial MIKE TROUT Thread**

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by atk825

I'd think 25 is a pretty conservative estimate.

25 homers at the age of 38?

[atk825]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

25 homers at the age of 38?

Average per season. I think 25 is a pretty safe number. And if he does that for the rest of his contract, that gets him to 540.

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by atk825

Average per season. I think 25 is a pretty safe number. And if he does that for the rest of his contract, that gets him to 540.

I hope he does. I just highly doubt it. Does 500 homers put him in Top 10-15 inner circle status? (500 homers isn't that great by today's standards)

[theshowandme]

It’s been a while since someone passed Mantle doing it clean.

536 is such a good number to hit.


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[atk825]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

I hope he does. I just highly doubt it. Does 500 homers put him in Top 10-15 inner circle status? (500 homers isn't that great by today's standards)

I think with any sort of normal glide path, he's inner circle. Obviously if he just announces an end to his career tomorrow, it changes that, but that's not going to happen. Kershaw has been similar. There's been injuries basically every year since 2018 at this point but he's still playing enough and well enough that he's basically going to be the best of a generation.

[atk825]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

It’s been a while since someone passed Mantle doing it clean.

536 is such a good number to hit.


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Was Pujols dirty?

[RiceBondsMT2Yng]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

It’s been a while since someone passed Mantle doing it clean.

536 is such a good number to hit.


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Just wondering if by clean you mean "with amphetamines but not necessarily other stuff."

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by atk825

Was Pujols dirty?

Idk what was his WAR and how was his regression with age?


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[atk825]

Originally Posted by RiceBondsMT2Yng

Just wondering if by clean you mean "with amphetamines but not necessarily other stuff."

Amphetamines aren't performance enhancing*


*except for the part where they are really good at getting a person who is either drunk or hungover to be alert enough to actually perform.

[oplum29]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Griffey because of the juice and the luxury of facing 91 mph meatballs 3x through the lineup each night




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you think Griffey juiced?

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by oplum29

you think Griffey juiced?

I wouldn’t be surprised.


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[SupermanBrandon]

IM NOT SAYING HE DID ANYTHING NOR DO I THINK HE DID. Im just posting a hypothetical question, thats it. What if it came out that Trout used roids or a banned substance at any given moment during his playing days? Would people jump from buildings?

[BigSeph]

Originally Posted by atk825

I am not talking about WAR. OPS+ and wRC+ are both standardized stats accounting for era and ballpark. It's not perfect but it's certainly a good compass to point you in the right direction.

But actual stats like H, R, RBI, BB, HR, SB happen on a baseball field.

Imaginary stats like OPS+ and wRC+ try to encapsulate variables but really all they do is introduce noise to otherwise useful raw data.

Like a Coors Field park factor - what if it's raining or the sun is shining in the batter's eyes? Who cares, penalize him anyway for playing at Coors.

Perfect weather at a pitcher's park or an afternoon game with sun in their eyes at a hitter's park. There's no adjustment for that.

So it's just noise.

Give me the raw data, I'll run with that, thanks.

[atk825]

Originally Posted by BigSeph

But actual stats like H, R, RBI, BB, HR, SB happen on a baseball field.

Imaginary stats like OPS+ and wRC+ try to encapsulate variables but really all they do is introduce noise to otherwise useful raw data.

Like a Coors Field park factor - what if it's raining or the sun is shining in the batter's eyes? Who cares, penalize him anyway for playing at Coors.

Perfect weather at a pitcher's park or an afternoon game with sun in their eyes at a hitter's park. There's no adjustment for that.

So it's just noise.

Give me the raw data, I'll run with that, thanks.

OPS+ is just standardizing your slugging percentage (a real stat) and your ability to get on base (again a real stat) to account for the fact that it's easier to get on base and slug in Colorado and it was also easier to get on base and slug when everyone was on steroids. It's really not that difficult or imaginary. Like you can go on and pretend that it's not much easier to hit in Colorado all you want. Just don't expect anyone to take you seriously.

[BigSeph]

Originally Posted by RiceBondsMT2Yng

Just wondering if by clean you mean "with amphetamines but not necessarily other stuff."

Using amphetamines to pass the guy who had horse steroids injected in his butt is totally fine.

Androstenedione and flaxseed oil will get you disqualified though.

[theshowandme]

Professional Bowling Mookie, Dirt Bike Riding Tatis, Fat Boy Vladdy, Can’t Hit a Curveball Soto, Invisalign Patient Judge, and Never Gonna Win Bryce wish they had this much traffic on their perennial player threads about their cards


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[BigSeph]

Originally Posted by atk825

Amphetamines aren't performance enhancing*


*except for the part where they are really good at getting a person who is either drunk or hungover to be alert enough to actually perform.

Increased focus, increased reaction time, higher energy and alertness.

I'm sure that doesn't benefit anyone trying to hit a baseball coming at them 100mph...

Odds Trout has an Adderrall script? I'd love for MLB to release that list of 10% of players with a prescription.

[jmcca170]

Just snagged on EBay- thanks to whoever brought this one to my attention a couple weeks ago





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[jmcca170]

Originally Posted by jmcca170

Just snagged on EBay- thanks to whoever brought this one to my attention a couple weeks ago





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Whoops. Meant to go in the Shohei thread… cant figure out how to delete


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[BigSeph]

Originally Posted by atk825

OPS+ is just standardizing your slugging percentage (a real stat) and your ability to get on base (again a real stat) to account for the fact that it's easier to get on base and slug in Colorado and it was also easier to get on base and slug when everyone was on steroids. It's really not that difficult or imaginary. Like you can go on and pretend that it's not much easier to hit in Colorado all you want. Just don't expect anyone to take you seriously.

I think it's easier to hit in a dome than it is in an outdoor stadium with fog/misty rain/sun in your eyes/gnats buzzing around your face.

Where's the adjustment for these things?

Let's really crank up the noise level.

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by jmcca170

Whoops. Meant to go in the Shohei thread… cant figure out how to delete


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It’s okay, Trout is dead and this thread is now for all players better than Trout. So show off some Dale Murphy for the resident Braves fan lunatics if you got ‘em


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[atk825]

Originally Posted by BigSeph

I think it's easier to hit in a dome than it is in an outdoor stadium with fog/misty rain/sun in your eyes/gnats buzzing around your face.

Where's the adjustment for these things?

Let's really crank up the noise level.

I mean if only there were ways to look at large samples of data regarding offense in certain environments. Oh wait, there are! It's nobody's fault but yours to remain ignorant.

[BigSeph]

Originally Posted by atk825

I mean if only there were ways to look at large samples of data regarding offense in certain environments. Oh wait, there are! It's nobody's fault but yours to remain ignorant.

Not ignorant at all. I value raw data over "interpreted" data in every walk of life.

I'm confident enough in my own mental faculties to interpret the data. For myself.

I don't need it to be filtered through arbitrary and biased human adjustments in order to spoonfeed me a simple summary figure like WAR or OPS+

If a guy plays a rain game in Coors but his 0-5 day is really the equivalent of an 0-5.2 day, while a guy goes 0-5 in Tampa Bay but it's really 0-4.97, your weighting system sucks.

The guy went 0-5 twice. Period.

I went through this drill with Babe Ruth and how many HRs he "really" had when he could just pull everything to the rightfield corner in the Polo Grounds.



Eventually I realized it doesn't matter. He hit a pitch far enough in the air to clear the fence and that's a home run.

Wake me up when somebody updates Babe Ruth's plaque to say "gathered 500 home run (park adjusted)" because otherwise it doesn't matter what the nerd stats say.

714 HRs. Period. It's in the history books.

[SupermanBrandon]

I was playing w/ 11-12 year old kids that were hitting it 250 at times. The Babe was having to do it after a week long bender, while doing blow in the batters box.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by BigSeph

No, it tries to account for era but the adjustments are chosen by human beings. And human beings have a long track record of injecting their own belief systems into data adjustments.

https://sabr.org/journal/article/ass...flaws-in-jaws/

And there are multiple definitions of WAR that sabermetrics guys can't even agree on.

It's almost like Billy Beane and Bill James' affinity for walks has been baked into the WAR formula to penalize pre-expansion era players, and the "defensive players up the middle should get a bonus to WAR" magically only applies a +2.5 to today's CF, but used to penalize CFs in the 1930s with a -2.

After digging through it pretty obsessively over the past week I find a lot of the adjustments for position and era to be completely arbitrary.

Look at who developed these player value systems and what their belief system is. How much input did traditionalists have into the development of advanced analytics and player values? I'd be willing to bet not much.

Getting on base is the most important thing if you want to do things like score runs and win games. It wasn't pulled out of thin air.