✹The PERENNIAL Shohei Ohtani Thread✹

[Tim]

There are some excellent points being made in this thread. I would like to add though that I feel like ohtani is going to transcend cards the way MJ did with basketball. I feel like there's going to be a lot of people who don't collect cards who want an Ohtani base rookie card and I don't think it's going to take a super long time.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

So at this point you expect high end to go up and up...and low end to go down and down indefinitely?



Assuming Ohtani accomplishes everything you think he will through out his career (5 MVPs, greatest player of his generation, etc) what do you think his #700 base RC card PSA 10 and raw will end up as after he retires and beyond?



Also, isn't Ohtani's market already larger than both Pujols and Ichiro? Shouldn't his market continue to grow as times goes on?

Ohtani base doesn't have a standout signature rookie card like the UD Griffey or US175 trout. So I would have to say less than both of those when you consider print runs are far higher.

Lucky for everyone, there are more Shohei base rookie cards than there will ever be (in our life time) collectors. Maybe there will be some spikes but supply and demand always prevails.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by Tim

There are some excellent points being made in this thread. I would like to add though that I feel like ohtani is going to transcend cards the way MJ did with basketball. I feel like there's going to be a lot of people who don't collect cards who want an Ohtani base rookie card and I don't think it's going to take a super long time.

i think youre right. yet another reason to get them graded

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Ohtani base doesn't have a standout signature rookie card like the UD Griffey or US175 trout. So I would have to say less than both of those when you consider print runs are far higher.

Lucky for everyone, there are more Shohei base rookie cards than there will ever be (in our life time) collectors. Maybe there will be some spikes but supply and demand always prevails.

So what is your best guestimate at what #700 Raw and PSA10 end up stabilizing at?
I think I read the print run was about 220k+ not including complete sets.

[TheGZA]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

So at this point you expect high end to go up and up...and low end to go down and down indefinitely?

Assuming Ohtani accomplishes everything you think he will through out his career (5 MVPs, greatest player of his generation, etc) what do you think his #700 base RC card PSA 10 and raw will end up as after he retires and beyond?

Also, isn't Ohtani's market already larger than both Pujols and Ichiro? Shouldn't his market continue to grow as times goes on?

I think the point, that none of us want to admit bc of sunk cost fallacy or ripping wax is fun or whatever, is that all of this stuff for the most part is stupid. Why spend your time penny-sleeving and sorting a base card of someone when the value in a few weeks of whoever it is will be 90% less than right now?

Either buy and collect for fun, or prepare to get rekt long-term if you're a "casual"

[Twalk1975]

How much low end supply would you guess is still out there in unopened 2018 wax? The LCS I go to still has Series 2 hobby jumbo boxes for sale.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

So what is your best guestimate at what #700 Raw and PSA10 end up stabilizing at?

If a PSA 10 gets past 150-200 again, people will start opening complete sets and wax and prices will drop back down. To other's points, there is still a LOT of unopened supply. The S2 700 is also in complete sets and has a 70%+ gem rate. I alone have 4 complete set hobby cases sitting in my closet and two hobby cases of Update. I know other BO users have pallets of product. There's just so many cards that it's going to be hard to maintain momentum upward. I know you're sick of me saying this, but if you're worried about prices, buy higher end.

[ThoseBackPages]

yes, if money is ones goal. buy PSA 10 copies of numbered cards

[redauto5]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I was going to bid on the card! I assumed it would go for more than I wanted to pay! It clearly did not. I think I bought that same card raw in 2021 or 2022 for like $235 on Ebay. At the time I thought I got it on the low end of comps.



This goes to show there is something wrong with this market. Buy as much as you can while the prices are down. It can't stay like this moving forward can it?

Well, I'm glad you didn't bid from a selfish perspective but I hope you continue to look into medium-end Ohtani and are able to pick up some more of this type of stuff. I'm like you in a lot of ways in that I'm pretty value sensitive about my collection. I tend to care more about values than the average collector, as my budget is less than I'd like but enjoy being active buying so I'm always selling stuff that I like less to buy more cool stuff I want to hold long term.

Your low end focus is well known on this board, and I feel for you as it seems you share my penchant for "activity". That said, part of the maturing process in collecting in this hobby IMO is to learn to control the buying itch as well as the itch to stack low end in favor of less activity while gathering bigger cards that "matter" more in the hobby.

It's been suggested to you before to consolidate up into scarcer, more valuable cards. The current conversation on this thread brings another opportunity to offer up that suggestion. True and other astute collectors here are again making the point that high end is going to do better in the long term than low, and that take has definitely born out over the medium term from 2021-2022.

You've got a lot of ammunition available with your low end Ohtani stacks! It may be time to begin moving off that stuff, especially if prices firm up on it coming into the 2025 season when Sho will again be doing his 2-way thing. I wish you well in your collecting journey man! I enjoy your contributions here.

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[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

If a PSA 10 gets past 150-200 again, people will start opening complete sets and wax and prices will drop back down. To other's points, there is still a LOT of unopened supply. The S2 700 is also in complete sets and has a 70%+ gem rate. I alone have 4 complete set hobby cases sitting in my closet and two hobby cases of Update. I know other BO users have pallets of product. There's just so many cards that it's going to be hard to maintain momentum upward. I know you're sick of me saying this, but if you're worried about prices, buy higher end.

In the future, assuming Ohtani stays healthy and achieves everything I think he will achieve...I think #700 raw will be in the $50 range and his PSA10 will be in the $150. Will have to look back at this in 10-15 years!

What high end cards do you recommend people buy? BCA and real one autos? I have a hard time paying so much for a single card mentally. I guess I would love to pick your brain some time to get an idea of what you think will maintain value and what will not over time.

Its not that I am worried about low end prices, I am just trying to understand how his low end has dropped over 50% from peak if he is having a MVP caliber year. I am also trying to figure out what low end and medium end RC prices should be in the future.

I have mainly been buying SP's, image variations etc of cards I think are under priced in the market.

I know in the past you said Heritage #17, rainbow foil, and numbered #700 cards were under priced compared to everything else.

[ThoseBackPages]

sean, this is going to sound crazy......

with you going to the show this year, i would recommend that you go through your best Ohtanis and bring them to drop off at SGC

i say SGC because they will be the cheapest and fastest.

i like and use CGC, but the hobby has spoken otherwise.

its a good time for you to get started on getting them graded

[Stringmusic]

Originally Posted by redauto5

Well, I'm glad you didn't bid from a selfish perspective but I hope you continue to look into medium-end Ohtani and are able to pick up some more of this type of stuff. I'm like you in a lot of ways in that I'm pretty value sensitive about my collection. I tend to care more about values than the average collector, as my budget is less than I'd like but enjoy being active buying so I'm always selling stuff that I like less to buy more cool stuff I want to hold long term.

Your low end focus is well known on this board, and I feel for you as it seems you share my penchant for "activity". That said, part of the maturing process in collecting in this hobby IMO is to learn to control the buying itch as well as the itch to stack low end in favor of less activity while gathering bigger cards that "matter" more in the hobby.

It's been suggested to you before to consolidate up into scarcer, more valuable cards. The current conversation on this thread brings another opportunity to offer up that suggestion. True and other astute collectors here are again making the point that high end is going to do better in the long term than low, and that take has definitely born out over the medium term from 2021-2022.

You've got a lot of ammunition available with your low end Ohtani stacks! It may be time to begin moving off that stuff, especially if prices firm up on it coming into the 2025 season when Sho will again be doing his 2-way thing. I wish you well in your collecting journey man! I enjoy your contributions here.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

Agree 100% with every word of this post.

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by Stringmusic

Agree 100% with every word of this post.

Second, third, and fourth this.

if there was one thing that I would have done differently it would have been to heed the advice of quality over quantity.

This thread/forum has been consistent with this.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

In the future, assuming Ohtani stays healthy and achieves everything I think he will achieve...I think #700 raw will be in the $50 range and his PSA10 will be in the $150. Will have to look back at this in 10-15 years!

What high end cards do you recommend people buy? BCA and real one autos? I have a hard time paying so much for a single card mentally. I guess I would love to pick your brain some time to get an idea of what you think will maintain value and what will not over time.

Its not that I am worried about low end prices, I am just trying to understand how his low end has dropped over 50% from peak if he is having a MVP caliber year. I am also trying to figure out what low end and medium end RC prices should be in the future.

I have mainly been buying SP's, image variations etc of cards I think are under priced in the market.

I know in the past you said Heritage #17, rainbow foil, and numbered #700 cards were under priced compared to everything else.

Autos: Any graded on-card 2018 Licensed auto, ranked below:
1) CRA-SO (Pitching), 2) BCRA-SO (Batting), 3) Heritage Low/High, 4) TC proper/sapphire/employee, 5) Finest, 6) everything else (for the connoisseur)

Chrome: TC 150 #d, HMT1 #d, maybe HMT32 very low #d, Bowman Chrome #d, Finest #d

Paper: 700/US1 #d, all three Flagship SSPs

I think that's your guide ^. I know you're going to find obscure low print # and limited SPs with unconfirmed print runs, but #d usually prevails, even for identical print runs.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

sean, this is going to sound crazy......

with you going to the show this year, i would recommend that you go through your best Ohtanis and bring them to drop off at SGC

i say SGC because they will be the cheapest and fastest.

i like and use CGC, but the hobby has spoken otherwise.

its a good time for you to get started on getting them graded

I would never ever grade with SGC! Next time PSA has a grading special I will end up sending all of my medium end cards and low end cards I think will GEM. I will then use those cards to either sell or trade up and get a few high end items!

[oddstuff]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Autos: Any graded on-card 2018 Licensed auto, ranked below:
1) CRA-SO (Pitching), 2) BCRA-SO (Batting), 3) Heritage Low/High, 4) TC proper/sapphire/employee, 5) Finest, 6) everything else (for the connoisseur)

Chrome: TC 150 #d, HMT1 #d, maybe HMT32 very low #d, Bowman Chrome #d, Finest #d

Paper: 700/US1 #d, all three Flagship SSPs

I think that's your guide ^. I know you're going to find obscure low print # and limited SPs with unconfirmed print runs, but #d usually prevails, even for identical print runs.

Are non-# cards with low pop graded numbers something to consider after this list? Like the rainbow foil?

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by oddstuff

Are non-# cards with low pop graded numbers something to consider after this list? Like the rainbow foil?

I personally like RF and think they're undervalued but they are not close to the blue chips listed above. The main problem is that Topps killed the parallel by printing them to the moon beginning in 2020. They will always be perceived as less valuable because of that.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

I personally like RF and think they're undervalued but they are not close to the blue chips listed above. The main problem is that Topps killed the parallel by printing them to the moon beginning in 2020. They will always be perceived as less valuable because of that.

Do you think non-blue chip, low pop SP's and SSP's (not numbered) will also go up, but just not as much as the blue chip numbered cards and SSP flagship cards?

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I would never ever grade with SGC! Next time PSA has a grading special I will end up sending all of my medium end cards and low end cards I think will GEM. I will then use those cards to either sell or trade up and get a few high end items!

grab a snickers!

[redauto5]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I would never ever grade with SGC! Next time PSA has a grading special I will end up sending all of my medium end cards and low end cards I think will GEM. I will then use those cards to either sell or trade up and get a few high end items!

Awesome man! I think you have the ammunition to acquire a few pretty serious cards, like the ones True listed. Here is the bulk of my Ohtani collection, as you can tell mostly medium end. I'm tempted to sell off everything but the Archives Auto and the BC /499 and purchase 1 or 2 on True's list myself. On second thought, i definitely want to keep the Heritage Action, the 2024 SSP and the Chrome Relic so that doesnt leave me with a ton to sell off. Its sooooo hard! Lol

I know you have some of this type of stuff, so with your low end and medium end combined you could do some serious damage. If you're loathe to get rid of the medium end stuff maybe start with the low end and see how far that gets you.

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[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by redauto5

Awesome man! I think you have the ammunition to acquire a few pretty serious cards, like the ones True listed. Here is the bulk of my Ohtani collection, as you can tell mostly medium end. I'm tempted to sell off everything but the Archives Auto and the BC /499 and purchase 1 or 2 on True's list myself. On second thought, i definitely want to keep the Heritage Action, the 2024 SSP and the Chrome Relic so that doesnt leave me with a ton to sell off. Its sooooo hard! Lol

I know you have some of this type of stuff, so with your low end and medium end combined you could do some serious damage. If you're loathe to get rid of the medium end stuff maybe start with the low end and see how far that gets you.

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Yes, I have most of the cards you have (in multiples)...just not graded. I do have all of my Ohtani cards separated by condition (Gem candidates, Mint or better and nrmt/mt or better and nrmt).

I would keep most of my medium end cards, and sell/trade the low end ones to get some high end cards. Or I could just buy the high end ones I want. I just have this mental block of spending a lot of money one one card. Seems very risky.

In general I bought the majority of my low end base RC and inserts for $15 or less (panini RC base cards like $5-10 or less). So I am pretty disciplined when buying! I don't think there is a single card I would lose much money on, and most I would make a decent amount. If any GEM, I would be making a large profit.

As for my medium end cards...the most I have spent was $350 on a TC 150 X-fractor. Luckily there are a few cards I bought for less that sell for more than 1k, but those are the minority of my cards.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Do you think non-blue chip, low pop SP's and SSP's (not numbered) will also go up, but just not as much as the blue chip numbered cards and SSP flagship cards?

when the next generation of collectors (think your kids) has enough expendable income to start collecting high-end cards of their childhood hero, they are going to start with the most iconic cards. The most hardcore ones will expand their pallet and look for the cards you describe above. If price is important to you, stick to the proven cards. I have a lot of oddballs, but I fully expect my autos/#d to carry my collection value (not that I track, but whatever it is).

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by redauto5

Awesome man! I think you have the ammunition to acquire a few pretty serious cards, like the ones True listed. Here is the bulk of my Ohtani collection, as you can tell mostly medium end. I'm tempted to sell off everything but the Archives Auto and the BC /499 and purchase 1 or 2 on True's list myself. On second thought, i definitely want to keep the Heritage Action, the 2024 SSP and the Chrome Relic so that doesnt leave me with a ton to sell off. Its sooooo hard! Lol

I know you have some of this type of stuff, so with your low end and medium end combined you could do some serious damage. If you're loathe to get rid of the medium end stuff maybe start with the low end and see how far that gets you.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

Great example of an exciting consolidation journey just about to embark!

[redauto5]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Yes, I have most of the cards you have (in multiples)...just not graded. I do have all of my Ohtani cards separated by condition (Gem candidates, Mint or better and nrmt/mt or better and nrmt).



I would keep most of my medium end cards, and sell/trade the low end ones to get some high end cards. Or I could just buy the high end ones I want. I just have this mental block of spending a lot of money one one card. Seems very risky.



In general I bought the majority of my low end base RC and inserts for $15 or less (panini RC base cards like $5-10 or less). So I am pretty disciplined when buying! I don't think there is a single card I would lose much money on, and most I would make a decent amount. If any GEM, I would be making a large profit.



As for my medium end cards...the most I have spent was $350 on a TC 150 X-fractor. Luckily there are a few cards I bought for less that sell for more than 1k, but those are the minority of my cards.

Great, I didn't know you had so much medium-end already. You've got like doomsday prepper amounts of ammo! I ended up grading 50 or 60 low and medium end with PSA and sold off all the low end graded base as well as medium end multiples and just kept 1 copy of all the medium end I really cared about.

As you know grading is going to be key for unlocking the value of your collection. I'd obviously send all the gem candidates and maybe send borderline stuff too especially the medium end. PSA 9s of $200-$500 cards are still well worth grading and I gemmed quite a few cards I thought were 9's, and probably gemmed more cards I thought were 10's too because a grader isn't going to gem a whole order regardless of how pristine every card may be. Give the grader some cards with flaws so they can feel good giving you your 70% gem rate and you can get 10's on the great majority of stuff you think deserves it. Just my opinion, everyone's got their opinions as far as grading goes.

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[AwesomeBrian]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I would never ever grade with SGC! Next time PSA has a grading special I will end up sending all of my medium end cards and low end cards I think will GEM. I will then use those cards to either sell or trade up and get a few high end items!

Never send modern to SGC. They end up as $9 drink coasters