2024-25 Prospecting MEGA hype thread.

[ronaldo943]

With taxes and eBay fees, investing/prospecting does not seem lucrative for me but I will keep an eye on this thread as the theory is cool.

[messier2]

Originally Posted by ronaldo943

With taxes and eBay fees, investing/prospecting does not seem lucrative for me but I will keep an eye on this thread as the theory is cool.

For me, I do it half for the fun of it as a basketball fan. It's not meant to finance my retirement by any means. Just a side-hustle for me, and even "funner" if/when the player does well!

[ronaldo943]

Originally Posted by messier2

For me, I do it half for the fun of it as a basketball fan. It's not meant to finance my retirement by any means. Just a side-hustle for me, and even "funner" if/when the player does well!

Yep that makes sense! Who are you going to collect?

[messier2]

Originally Posted by ronaldo943

Yep that makes sense! Who are you going to collect?

Well, I've been after a few guys from each of the last 2 rookie classes (they're still pretty cheap, so I want it to stay that way until I'm ready to sell!). Some guys that I feel are undervalued relative to talent. Now is the best time to buy as everyone is super focused on football.

Once the football season starts, attention shifts to basketball which may or may not be the time to sell for me based on how much I believe in the player!

[Nomad]

Speaking of that phenomenon but at a later stage, I know that some really nice stuff of Nesmith that I had my eye on has disappeared (gold Prizm PSA 10; contenders cracked ice auto PSA 10).

So the uptick is real.

There are actually now higher end collectors picking up relatively cheap rare stuff, thinking that when the new value dynamics assert themselves in the next season, prices could reshuffle. They have been kept solid by committed investors for so long that revaluation hasn't occurred, as it would in an organic market. But once a certain number of Pacers or Magic or Thunder games get out on national broadcasts, people around the world get familiar with the faces and talents.

[SteveIsLegend]

Originally Posted by ronaldo943

With taxes and eBay fees, investing/prospecting does not seem lucrative for me but I will keep an eye on this thread as the theory is cool.

Not sure if you do already, but check out COMC maybe. For example, I was able to flip a couple Leonard Miller and Julian Strawther that I bought before Summer League then sold during Summer League. Nothing earth shattering (a $15 sale when I purchased for $9.25), but it's fun and I never even had the card in hand. I'll then take those funds and eventually buy something I want to keep long term and then have it shipped to me.

[messier2]

The basketball prospecting market is very interesting right now. I see people making moves on guys not named Wemby. Savvy collectors are looking at guys from last year, 2 years ago, even 3 years ago who are rotational pieces at the very least. It's all about potential playing time and team impact.

I see some competition out there for my guys, but that's healthy competition which is good for the basketball market overall. These young players are the future of the league, and it's always a good play to get in early on those that are in favorable circumstances with their team.

[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by messier2

The basketball prospecting market is very interesting right now. I see people making moves on guys not named Wemby. Savvy collectors are looking at guys from last year, 2 years ago, even 3 years ago who are rotational pieces at the very least. It's all about potential playing time and team impact.

I see some competition out there for my guys, but that's healthy competition which is good for the basketball market overall. These young players are the future of the league, and it's always a good play to get in early on those that are in favorable circumstances with their team.

Yes! It is very competitive for the guys I stashed for grading from this year. The 2023 draft is deep and a few have an opening to excel because of trades. I grabbed B. Miller before his name was household in the hobby.

[ronaldo943]

Originally Posted by The_Reverend

Yes! It is very competitive for the guys I stashed for grading from this year. The 2023 draft is deep and a few have an opening to excel because of trades. I grabbed B. Miller before his name was household in the hobby.

Brandon Miller was always pricey due to being the #2 pick, no?

[kipgen]

Not sure if this is suitable for the prospecting thread since he already kinda broke out but ive been buying a lot of Alperen Sengun lately, tons of awesome cards out there for cheap

[ronaldo943]

Originally Posted by kipgen

Not sure if this is suitable for the prospecting thread since he already kinda broke out but ive been buying a lot of Alperen Sengun lately, tons of awesome cards out there for cheap

He is 22 so I would say it definitely counts.

[Nomad]

I wonder if basketball prospecting naturally evens out over time. Everyone looks back at previously cheap prices of stars without realizing how many collectors went bust along the way on prospects that didn't pan out. But this creates a conservatism that concentrates positions and keeps upcoming prospects cheap.

[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by ronaldo943

Brandon Miller was always pricey due to being the #2 pick, no?

Not for the prices I was paying. Most were chasing Wemby and listed miller cheaper than his stats mandated.

My most recent buyin because of off-season changes is Jordan Miller!!

[messier2]

Originally Posted by Nomad

I wonder if basketball prospecting naturally evens out over time. Everyone looks back at previously cheap prices of stars without realizing how many collectors went bust along the way on prospects that didn't pan out. But this creates a conservatism that concentrates positions and keeps upcoming prospects cheap.

I have my "requirements" for each player I prospect. If they don't hit all 3 (or are projected to hit all 3), then I don't buy their cards. It's not a 100% safe method, but at least I give myself a decent shot at doing well.

[sportzluvr1]

Originally Posted by kipgen

Not sure if this is suitable for the prospecting thread since he already kinda broke out but ive been buying a lot of Alperen Sengun lately, tons of awesome cards out there for cheap

Good man. Just turned 22 days ago.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by messier2

I have my "requirements" for each player I prospect. If they don't hit all 3 (or are projected to hit all 3), then I don't buy their cards. It's not a 100% safe method, but at least I give myself a decent shot at doing well.

Are they specific stats or archetype or what?

[messier2]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Are they specific stats or archetype or what?

No, no. Stats are secondary. It's the other stuff I watch for.

I have NBA league pass for a few years now and that has helped me A LOT in doing all this. Being able to watch all the games can help you asses a player and his development (or lack thereof) within a team.

If I like his game and what he brings to a team, I will add him to my list! It's a small list currently, but will grow as I see pricing/talent opportunities.

For example Giannis averaged 6.8 points in his first year, and 12.7 in his second. If you look purely at those stats, you would never invest in him...now, many wished they did!

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by ronaldo943

He is 22 so I would say it definitely counts.

Originally Posted by sportzluvr1

Good man. Just turned 22 days ago.

I think the question is how much room he has to grow. I think he's almost at his hobby ceiling, last offseason his prices were much lower.

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I think the question is how much room he has to grow. I think he's almost at his hobby ceiling, last offseason his prices were much lower.

I think he's only starting to show what he can accomplish, especially if/when the rockets start living up to their collective potential

Personally I see his ceiling as perennial all-star/fringe mvp candidate

[sportzluvr1]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I think the question is how much room he has to grow. I think he's almost at his hobby ceiling, last offseason his prices were much lower.

Please keep spreading that message. I want to keep buying cheap.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I think the question is how much room he has to grow. I think he's almost at his hobby ceiling, last offseason his prices were much lower.

I think I agree that he’s likely at his hobby ceiling

He’s not Jokic so without being a perennial MVP candidate winning titles, it’s going to be hard for prices to keep going up

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

I think I agree that he’s likely at his hobby ceiling

He’s not Jokic so without being a perennial MVP candidate winning titles, it’s going to be hard for prices to keep going up

I think he's gonna keep getting better and Houston has a chance to contend down the line but I can't see his prices going up much more.

I'll still pick a Sengun here and there but I wait for deals or the right card. A few months ago there were deals left and right, almost all went up.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I think he's gonna keep getting better and Houston has a chance to contend down the line but I can't see his prices going up much more.

I'll still pick a Sengun here and there but I wait for deals or the right card. A few months ago there were deals left and right, almost all went up.

I think Sengun is much closer to Sabonis than Jokic. Good for real life basketball, horrible for card prices

[Imnottheonly]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

I think Sengun is much closer to Sabonis than Jokic. Good for real life basketball, horrible for card prices

100% this, Sengun ceiling is Sabonis. Not every big who can pass is Jokic and that's ok. Sabonis is still a great comp and its a #1 or #2 on a contending team. But unless the Rockets are a legitimate title threat, which they still feel pretty far away from there isn't going to be a lot of hobby love for a European big man. I do however love him as a player and if you can find em real cheap for sure go for it.

[messier2]

Prices are going up...the time to buy is slowly closing I was having way too much fun in June/July, but now I think the football guys have sold off their cards, and are focused on their new prey!