What goes up, must come down..

[solt0131]

I think puddle Monkey is really Bernie Sanders.

[Triple B]

Originally Posted by PuddleMonkey

Everyone should know by now I don't do genuine questions. With that being said I'm feeling generous today.





The hobby isn't going to die, there's going to be people in the hobby no matter what happens just like there has been the last 100 plus years. It is going to take an considerable hit though. Prices, actual prices not shilled or imaginary, on key cards will be scaled back. Flagship wax will look to be holding its value from the outside but you'll start to see much more of it left on shelves and bigger sales during holidays like Black Friday. The print runs will decrease.





I don't really care what people do with their time or money. We have a lot of collectors that feel like they've been priced out of the market and some have been vocal about it. If they just bide their time they'll be able to re-enter if they choose to. If they're degens they may have to wait for a little regulation on breaking or repacks to happen. Either way, there are no rocket emojis attached to the card market right now, more like parachutes.




Prediction Time - I've got this card shop on my side of town that's been there to my knowledge at least 3 years. It might be much longer but I don't travel that road much. Anyway, I predict he's no longer there in 2-3 years from now. I've never been in the shop, too many Pokemon decals on the window for me. I've only played this game once before with a local shop, about 10-15 years ago, I'm one for one. It was a firearms shop that had been in business 20+ years. I knew much more about his business than I do any card shop around here so it was an easy call for me. Business owner was on the forum and basically chimed in to call me an idiot. I won't go into more detail unless you guys want me to.

Last year I said that the hobby AS IT STANDS has a 5 year window before it starts its skid. By 2030, enough losses will have piled up to drive away a good chunk of participants. I do think that the next 2-3 will be very good which falls into your window for the life span of this shop and like you, I am getting prepped for an exit and I don't think we're alone.

I'd like to hear the rest of this story...

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by Triple B

I'd like to hear the rest of this story...

Sure, back in the 90's when I moved here we had a few firearms shops in town (not chain stores). One of the guys, Mike, owned one called Brightwater. Anyone who was into firearms knew where the few shops around were located. I got to know Mike pretty well, even to the point he's shown me his costs on purchases. For those that don't know the markup on firearms is pretty abysmal, for example, if Mike sold a new Glock (eww gross) for $500 he'd make about $50 in profit. That's on the high side (10%) when business is good.

Mike, who passed away in 2022, was getting up there in age and wanted to retire and tinker on cars which was his hobby. He only had a couple employees as it wasn't a very large shop. One of his employees named Nick who had worked for him for a few years wanted to purchase the business. A deal was made and Mike entered retirement.

Nick, who was fairly young, had big plans for his newly acquired business. His first order of business was to grow. To do this he decided to move two blocks away so he would be on the main road. Second order of business was to hire all his friends to work at the shop. Where Mike got by with two employees Nick decided he needed 2x-3x that amount. Hard to remember but all of this was taking place around late 2012.

I happen to know who owned the complex he moved into, as well as some of the terms in the contract tenants sign. One of the terms of the contract is tenants must put up backlit signs above their suite. Apparently Nick signed this contract without reading it over and it took him by surprise, I was in the shop when he was ranting about it one day. I'll let you do the math on how many Glocks he needed to sell just to pay for his new $5,000+/- sign. Don't forget to factor in paying all those employees to sell those Glocks. Brightwater was never known as a place for accessories, which have better margins than guns, they were only stocking the basics. Ammunition as well, carried little as big box stores had better pricing.

Brightwater started taking consignment pieces as they could make more per gun this way. Nick, who had only been at this for a short time, had never seen what happens when the political climate changes. Gun sales are really good when there's fear, not so much when there isn't. By 2014 word was spreading that people who had consignments with him were struggling to get paid. Nick was robbing Peter to pay Paul.

To shorten this up a bit here's the obvious mistakes he made:

- Moving the business to a new location where operating costs were much higher.
- Not understanding that those who were into firearms already knew about Brightwater and their old location as they've been around for years.
- Wanted all of his buddies working with him and had way too many employees.
- When the narrative is no longer, "they're coming for our guns!" this industry gets real tough to make it in.



To someone who runs a business it wasn't hard to see how this didn't pencil out. Nick had only seen the good times in the industry, he'd never seen a downturn. Increasing your operating costs to that extent had disaster written all over it. The reason Mike stayed in business for so long is he understood all these things.







Moved from the blue circle to the red circle

[OhioLawyerF5]

So someone who is bad at business in one industry is evidence of the downfall of an entire other industry?

That said, I'm not sure whether to like you, or hate you. On one hand, I feel like our interests are very closely aligned. But as a collector of antique Colt revolvers, I live by the mantra, "Show your friends your Colt, and show your enemies your Glock." So I'm conflicted.

[dunquixote1]

Ironically, many of my friends are arming up right now…and let’s just say that they aren’t your stereotypical demographic that packs heat. Two of my buddies who were very anti-gun a couple years ago now have guns. Including one that told me ‘he’s bought more guns than cards recently’ just a couple days ago when we were joking around about having barely bought any cards recently. �� At any rate, if the economy tanks - cards are going to get crushed across the board. Anyone who thinks they’re not tied into the larger consumer good economy needs to get their heads checked. There’s always anecdotes and exceptions…but those are just that; anecdotes and exceptions.

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

So someone who is bad at business in one industry is evidence of the downfall of an entire other industry?

Said nobody. Like nobody.

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

That said, I'm not sure whether to like you, or hate you. On one hand, I feel like our interests are very closely aligned. But as a collector of antique Colt revolvers, I live by the mantra, "Show your friends your Colt, and show your enemies your Glock." So I'm conflicted.

I've owned over a dozen Glocks. When I carry it's a Glock. I hate Glocks. Revolvers and 1911's are what I enjoy, I don't carry them for the obvious reasons.

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by dunquixote1

Ironically, many of my friends are arming up right now…and let’s just say that they aren’t your stereotypical demographic that packs heat. Two of my buddies who were very anti-gun a couple years ago now have guns. Including one that told me ‘he’s bought more guns than cards recently’ just a couple days ago when we were joking around about having barely bought any cards recently. �� At any rate, if the economy tanks - cards are going to get crushed across the board. Anyone who thinks they’re not tied into the larger consumer good economy needs to get their heads checked. There’s always anecdotes and exceptions…but those are just that; anecdotes and exceptions.

The further one goes on the leftist side the more pro-gun they get.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by PuddleMonkey

Said nobody. Like nobody.









I've owned over a dozen Glocks. When I carry it's a Glock. I hate Glocks. Revolvers and 1911's are what I enjoy, I don't carry them for the obvious reasons.

Ok, we are certainly kindred spirits. That sounds almost identical to my situation. Although I don't "hate Glocks." I trust my life with them. And I wouldn't hate something I trust my life with. But I get what you are saying. It's a work truck versus a Ferrari.

What kinds of revolvers do you collect?

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Ok, we are certainly kindred spirits. That sounds almost identical to my situation. Although I don't "hate Glocks." I trust my life with them. And I wouldn't hate something I trust my life with. But I get what you are saying. It's a work truck versus a Ferrari.

What kinds of revolvers do you collect?

My beef with Glock is really more their fanboys. They work, I never worry about them not working. Their fanboys are unbearable.

I like the old S&W pre-locks. 5" or 6" barrel, I don't care for snub nose but I have them. My favorite revolver to shoot is the Ruger GP-100 6", old school 80's grips. If I really want to dial in my bullseyes I'll go single action, 6" or 8" barrel. Sold my Python and Anaconda when that dumb tv show made them popular. I'd have to look but I don't think I have any Colt revolvers left. I don't know if any of my top 5 guns would be revolvers though. You?

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by PuddleMonkey

My beef with Glock is really more their fanboys. They work, I never worry about them not working. Their fanboys are unbearable.

I like the old S&W pre-locks. 5" or 6" barrel, I don't care for snub nose but I have them. My favorite revolver to shoot is the Ruger GP-100 6", old school 80's grips. If I really want to dial in my bullseyes I'll go single action, 6" or 8" barrel. Sold my Python and Anaconda when that dumb tv show made them popular. I'd have to look but I don't think I have any Colt revolvers left. I don't know if any of my top 5 guns would be revolvers though. You?

Like cards, I don't tend to sell guns either. It's a disease. So I still have my 1974 Python. Kept it through those crazy times. I have a 1969 Cobra, and several first gen Single Action Armies. My favorite to shoot is my 1903 Bisley in .38-40. But ammo that obscure can get pricey. I have a Colt letter for that one. I had the legend, Jim Martin completely redo the action on it. His work is top notch, and true restoration to the original action. It's like butter.

I never got into Smiths, but my wife carries a Model 60 LadySmith with a 2.75" barrel.

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Like cards, I don't tend to sell guns either. It's a disease.

I was quickly approaching triple digits and something had to be done. I don't have room for more safes.

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

My favorite to shoot is my 1903 Bisley in .38-40.

Colts will always have a strong following.

[rwperu34]

I finally got the Price Index updated on March 20th. That was the first update since Feb. 17. It was flat over that month, so my guess is the peak hit somewhere between those two dates. The median player is down 5% during that timeframe.

Now the big question is what happens over the 4-6 weeks? Or as I like to call it, 2nd tax season. The last few years this stretch has been brutal. My guess is people paying their taxes is the biggest driver the seasonal pullback, so this year won't be any different. It's only a question of magnitude.

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by solt0131

I think puddle Monkey is really Bernie Sanders.

You millionaire card shop owners need to pay your fair share!

[solt0131]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I finally got the Price Index updated on March 20th. That was the first update since Feb. 17. It was flat over that month, so my guess is the peak hit somewhere between those two dates. The median player is down 5% during that timeframe.

Now the big question is what happens over the 4-6 weeks? Or as I like to call it, 2nd tax season. The last few years this stretch has been brutal. My guess is people paying their taxes is the biggest driver the seasonal pullback, so this year won't be any different. It's only a question of magnitude.

Just ask puddle, the market will be crashing and crashing hard.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Triple B

Last year I said that the hobby AS IT STANDS has a 5 year window before it starts its skid. By 2030, enough losses will have piled up to drive away a good chunk of participants. I do think that the next 2-3 will be very good which falls into your window for the life span of this shop and like you, I am getting prepped for an exit and I don't think we're alone.

I'd like to hear the rest of this story...

Every time it skids, there's still plenty of collectors. Overproduction killed the speculators in the early 90s, the insert craze collapsed in the late 90s, then it was a couple decades of ho-hum aside from the usual vintage gains, then it started heating up in 2018 followed by the corona craze. Then prices collapsed on some modern rookies and slabbed base Topps. And here we are, still with piles of money moving around. Perhaps the next collapse will be the parallel side. Already seeing signs up it with Finest and Bowman's Best colors. Card show dollar boxes are filled with that stuff.