First Buzz: 2024-25 Panini Silhouette basketball cards

[Nomad]

I still like Furphy. He's obviously got future Laker written all over him.

[stryker8]

Wow....fotl sold out at over $1k? market manipulation at its finest!

[Tonic3]

Jeez, the FOTL sold out already. I don’t get it but we’ll see. Maybe it’s worth $1500+…….doubtful but possible

[yiguiri2002]

I think over a grand was a lock since presale was over $700.

It's still hilarious seeing people paying close to 2K for this.

[premium1981]

Although the prices are crazy, I think the one of the big things that will keep prices high for these products is the fact that Panini won't be able to make anymore. I expect the newer stuff to remain nutty.

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by Tonic3

Get ready for 7 jersey cards not associated with any PLAYER......ahhh yes....what dreams are made of

Gotta get rid of all that Dick's jersey stock!

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by stryker8

Wow....fotl sold out at over $1k? market manipulation at its finest!

Over a grand? Try over $1.5k. I don't know the exact number but it was gone at 12:20 something. It was around $1687 or higher it sold out at.

I wanted it but it's impossible to tell where hobby will be. FOTL is easily worth over double hobby but how low will hobby get.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Over a grand? Try over $1.5k. I don't know the exact number but it was gone at 12:20 something. It was around $1687 or higher it sold out at.

I wanted it but it's impossible to tell where hobby will be. FOTL is easily worth over double hobby but how low will hobby get.

I checked around 12:10 and it was a little over 1800. Gone at 12:23 so it didn't hit the 12:25 decrease. Based on the levels, it looks like it was around mid 1700s.

I think Hobby comes out at around 700, who knows how low it settles. I think the market for limited, low print cards is insane but regular Hobby should be right behind it.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I checked around 12:10 and it was a little over 1800. Gone at 12:23 so it didn't hit the 12:25 decrease. Based on the levels, it looks like it was around mid 1700s.

I think Hobby comes out at around 700, who knows how low it settles. I think the market for limited, low print cards is insane but regular Hobby should be right behind it.

I was thinking about it but told myself I couldn't pay more than Deca Basketball FOTL sold out at. I didn't want this to be a Prizm Deca Football FOTL situation where you could never even break even on the product buying at the sellout price let alone higher.

[Tonic3]

Originally Posted by Nomad

But Silhouette has way more stuff collectors want than Deca.

Does it though? The only way this stuff is worth $200/hit is if there are A LOT of game-worn jersey cards and there better be a lot of Curry, Lebron, Wemby, etc... in the mix or people are going to be crying. Even if you hit a game-worn Lebron 22nd year card is it even going to make a dent in the $1700 price tag. Likely not.

And it looks like all sticker auto's which sell for a fraction of their on-card counterparts. If it was like the silhouettes of old with on-card autos I could maybe see a premium.

Lastly, the fact that the BO buzz webpage claimed this has a "suggested retail price of $250" usually means that Panini wasn't valuing this product at the level it seems to have turned into. In the past that typically means one-color jersey cards not associated with anyone and a sticker dump. I think that's what this is going to be. Essentially a Chronicles 2.0 with extra jersey cards thrown in to make it look desirable.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by Tonic3

Does it though? The only way this stuff is worth $200/hit is if there are A LOT of game-worn jersey cards and there better be a lot of Curry, Lebron, Wemby, etc... in the mix or people are going to be crying. Even if you hit a game-worn Lebron 22nd year card is it even going to make a dent in the $1700 price tag. Likely not.

And it looks like all sticker auto's which sell for a fraction of their on-card counterparts. If it was like the silhouettes of old with on-card autos I could maybe see a premium.

Lastly, the fact that the BO buzz webpage claimed this has a "suggested retail price of $250" usually means that Panini wasn't valuing this product at the level it seems to have turned into. In the past that typically means one-color jersey cards not associated with anyone and a sticker dump. I think that's what this is going to be. Essentially a Chronicles 2.0 with extra jersey cards thrown in to make it look desirable.

My theory with this and Deca FOTL is that there's people buying this that don't care about the return. They just want a shot at getting some of the more limited, short printed cards because the chances of them showing up are very small.

The only releases who are this expensive for 2 autos are high-end. Immac has more autos and it's gonna be cheaper.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

My theory with this and Deca FOTL is that there's people buying this that don't care about the return. They just want a shot at getting some of the more limited, short printed cards because the chances of them showing up are very small.

The only releases who are this expensive for 2 autos are high-end. Immac has more autos and it's gonna be cheaper.

98% of FOTL that sell out at a price virtually no average person would pay are bought by breakers or people looking to resell. Im not sure if Panini will ship FOTL direct to Hong Kong, Philippines, or the few majors in Asia that want this stuff. I would doubt it especially because of tariffs now. If they don't, I wouldn't be surprised if every single box of Deca FOTL was bought by someone looking to break or resell.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

98% of FOTL that sell out at a price virtually no average person would pay are bought by breakers or people looking to resell. Im not sure if Panini will ship FOTL direct to Hong Kong, Philippines, or the few majors in Asia that want this stuff. I would doubt it especially because of tariffs now. If they don't, I wouldn't be surprised if every single box of Deca FOTL was bought by someone looking to break or resell.

I don't think the tariff's would affect Panini shipping anything overseas. I'm assuming they shipped overseas previously? If so, I'm sure nothing has changed. The tariff stuff doesn't really change anything on the seller side. That market over there is just nuts. Hobby cases of NT are pushing $15k now and I know that a big chunk of these cases have been purchased by Chinese buyers. Regardless, it was absolutely purchased by breakers. I don't even think resellers touched this at those prices. I figured this would be a solid product but never would I have ever dreamed that it would end at those levels. Madness. But, people will gobble it up in the breaks, so I get it.

[stryker8]

Lastly, the fact that the BO buzz webpage claimed this has a "suggested retail price of $250" usually means that Panini wasn't valuing this product at the level it seems to have turned into. In the past that typically means one-color jersey cards not associated with anyone and a sticker dump. I think that's what this is going to be. Essentially a Chronicles 2.0 with extra jersey cards thrown in to make it look desirable.

98% of FOTL that sell out at a price virtually no average person would pay are bought by breakers or people looking to resell.

In total agreement. Have to be a bunch of breakers buying at this price to trying to drive up the price. Before I saw pre-orders started for Non-FOTL in 300-400 range. Then within this last week, it jumped to 500 - 750 when FOTL range was put up.

I prob would have bought a FOTL one in the 600-700 range as FOMO, but didn't expect it to sell out at 1K+ (let alone 1600+). Just crazy. $500 for non FOTL just seems too high still. Guess wishful thinking....

[ricebellypanda]

Awful looking product and even worse price

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by premium1981

I don't think the tariff's would affect Panini shipping anything overseas. I'm assuming they shipped overseas previously? If so, I'm sure nothing has changed. The tariff stuff doesn't really change anything on the seller side. That market over there is just nuts. Hobby cases of NT are pushing $15k now and I know that a big chunk of these cases have been purchased by Chinese buyers. Regardless, it was absolutely purchased by breakers. I don't even think resellers touched this at those prices. I figured this would be a solid product but never would I have ever dreamed that it would end at those levels. Madness. But, people will gobble it up in the breaks, so I get it.

Please Note: This product is ineligible to ship to the following locations: China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan.

That's what it says on products on Blowout's website. Those are the main countries that want the NBA products. If BO isn't going to lie on the product order forms for these guys to not pay tariffs Panini isn't going to. I guess they could probably technically buy but with what they would have to pay on the tariff it's basically a lock they are better off buying on the secondary market and lying on the order forms by providing the shipping labels to avoid tariffs.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Please Note: This product is ineligible to ship to the following locations: China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan.

That's what it says on products on Blowout's website. Those are the main countries that want the NBA products. If BO isn't going to lie on the product order forms for these guys to not pay tariffs Panini isn't going to. I guess they could probably technically buy but with what they would have to pay on the tariff it's basically a lock they are better off buying on the secondary market and lying on the order forms by providing the shipping labels to avoid tariffs.

I get it, the buyers may not want to pay tariff's, but that doesn't mean thats why Blowout and company aren't shipping there. Pretty much all trading partners have tariff's so only having those 4 listed means it likely something else. I know personally, I will not ship to China no matter what price I am offered for something. The fraudulent stuff that goes on with those transactions are something I want nothing to do with.

My last transaction with someone from China was for a really high end case of Basketball about 2 years ago. All went smoothly with the delivery. Then a couple days later they said the case was repackaged and they were sending it back. Long story short, I purchased it direct, so I know it wasn't repackaged. They were buying cases, repacking them and sending them back for refunds after removing the cards they wanted. I would say stuff like that has more bearing on who ships to where as opposed to tariffs. But that is just an assumption. It may very well be tariff's, but without specifics saying so thats a leap since other international locations are not included.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

98% of FOTL that sell out at a price virtually no average person would pay are bought by breakers or people looking to resell. Im not sure if Panini will ship FOTL direct to Hong Kong, Philippines, or the few majors in Asia that want this stuff. I would doubt it especially because of tariffs now. If they don't, I wouldn't be surprised if every single box of Deca FOTL was bought by someone looking to break or resell.

Come on moss. People overseas that are willing to pay that much for a box of sports cards either have an address in the US or someone that can ship it to them.

I don't see how breakers would go after this, a random team would have to be something like $70-$80 per box for them to make a profit and 70%+ of the people would leave empty handed. And even when they don't, they most likely get a $10-$20 card.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I don't see how breakers would go after this,

Who the heck would be buying it if the breakers weren't? Team collectors? It is absolutely breakers. There are currently breakers still wanting it at over $22,000 a case (+$2,200 a box).

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

Come on moss. People overseas that are willing to pay that much for a box of sports cards either have an address in the US or someone that can ship it to them.

I don't see how breakers would go after this, a random team would have to be something like $70-$80 per box for them to make a profit and 70%+ of the people would leave empty handed. And even when they don't, they most likely get a $10-$20 card.

Im telling you based off what I've seen recently. Why did Deca Basketball go from anyone could buy it at $300, to not even in hand at around $400, to a week later over $500? Photogenic went from anyone could buy as much as you wanted for 30 minutes for $250 a box to a few days later not even in hand $325-$340 a box.

Everyone knew the content in these. Not like it was Mosaic FOTL or something with huge new added content. If it was as simple as overseas buyers buying from Panini using a US address or having someone ship to them why did these increase so much immediately when they were so easy for anyone to buy? I think it's because most or all of them couldn't buy it.

The key for basketball is which products are they going to want and which aren't they going to want.

Silhouette FOTL was all either bought by breakers or people looking to resell. No one has any idea right now where the price will go because we don't for sure know the content or the overseas interest. Almost everything FOTL has sold out sky high since most missed out on Rookie Royalty or sold too early. No one wants to miss out now, thinks they can buy at any price and can't lose.

Just because you bought a FOTL at the lowest price doesn't mean you can't lose. I've bought some at the lowest price and I've lost money on them. Including the 2024 Football class. I've bought others several drops before sellout and made great money on them. If you bought Deca Football FOTL at any price and didn't break immediately you lost money. If you bought to resell you lost money. That product had as good of added content as any football FOTL ever made. For a class that looks can't miss. 24-25 basketball may be as bad of a class as we have seen in a long time. Yet on a product that didn't look in demand that anyone could have bought for 30 minutes at $250 I made a ton of money. My only regret is not buying more. Probably could have bought 60 cases with as long as it was there.

[Chris P]

I saw Packman open FOTL and no matter how much he tries to spin it..there's a TON of filler players in the Andrew Bogut/Chris Kaman/Biyombo tier, and mostly napkins, the best patch he pulled was a game dated Trae Young and he pulled some nice (albeit Sticker) autos. But I'm just rolling my eyes hearing him gush how cool a Gerald Wallace Patch card is. He acts like Panini never uses game worn for vets. I'm sure there's some super nice boxes but his are underwhelming.

[casebreaksllc]

there are so many random players because this product is a patch dump. prizm black, which is likely to be the last release, will be the sticker dump which is why it has 5 autos per box. expecting an odd checklist there too.

[yiguiri2002]

I saw that break and I was laughing my ass off about the prices. Apparently now FOTL is 3K while Hobby is at 1.5K.

Can't wait until someone pulls a logoman and people start trying to justify the prices. I'm also trying to find breaks where people are buying 100+ for a random team, not many out there.

[xstphnx]

Originally Posted by Chris P

I saw Packman open FOTL and no matter how much he tries to spin it..there's a TON of filler players in the Andrew Bogut/Chris Kaman/Biyombo tier, and mostly napkins, the best patch he pulled was a game dated Trae Young and he pulled some nice (albeit Sticker) autos. But I'm just rolling my eyes hearing him gush how cool a Gerald Wallace Patch card is. He acts like Panini never uses game worn for vets. I'm sure there's some super nice boxes but his are underwhelming.

I was watching it too. His spots are selling for $500+ and I'm not sure the break had $500 worth of cards at the end.

[stryker8]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I saw that break and I was laughing my ass off about the prices. Apparently now FOTL is 3K while Hobby is at 1.5K.

Can't wait until someone pulls a logoman and people start trying to justify the prices. I'm also trying to find breaks where people are buying 100+ for a random team, not many out there.

I saw some breaks where ppl were buying into 2 FOTL box auction (@30 random teams) for $200+. Some ppl are just nuts.

Today on Ebay, someone bought a regular hobby box on presale for $1100!!! Insane when pre-orders were going for 300-500. I'm guess it was some breaker that bought this box.

Originally Posted by Chris P View Post
I saw Packman open FOTL and no matter how much he tries to spin it..there's a TON of filler players in the Andrew Bogut/Chris Kaman/Biyombo tier, and mostly napkins, the best patch he pulled was a game dated Trae Young and he pulled some nice (albeit Sticker) autos. But I'm just rolling my eyes hearing him gush how cool a Gerald Wallace Patch card is. He acts like Panini never uses game worn for vets. I'm sure there's some super nice boxes but his are underwhelming.

Sometimes I just get annoyed with Packman. Like every other breaker, he says he's losing money if the teams don't sell at $200+ I just don't buy it...