First Buzz: 2025-26 Topps NBA basketball cards

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

Unless someone is stalking their rep and marking blasters like cash, I don't think we really know what is sitting or not. If the rep is doing their job, the shelves should always look untouched. You sell 10, you top off 10 more, etc.

There are enough YouTube hunters out there that could probably give a good idea of what’s moving.

And those discounted blasters didn’t come straight from the factory.

[IronCladLou]

Aussie retailers trying to flog jumbos off for $375. Hard parse

[boxbuster7]

they probably printed one box of this for every person in america

[Andy5]

Originally Posted by IronCladLou

Aussie retailers trying to flog jumbos off for $375. Hard parse

Considering they were US$229 in the U.S, if that's AU dollar then it's not a bad price

[bub838]

Completely anecdotal: Three friends asked me about this product this weekend. Two of whom never open cards and one that get's a box of Ginter every year. Was very surprised.

[boxbuster7]

everybody will be giving away singles from this product in one month

[JustinVerlander07]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

everybody will be giving away singles from this product in one month

Define 'singles', it's base Topps, people know what they're buying. We get it you don't like the product. Move along?

[IronCladLou]

Originally Posted by Andy5

Considering they were US$229 in the U.S, if that's AU dollar then it's not a bad price

Sadly USD. I converted it over

I would happily pay $375AU for a couple of jumbos

[BlowoutBuzz]

also on the way ... cross-posting as it's basically a part parallel release.

First Buzz: 2025-26 Topps Holiday basketball cards >> BlowoutBuzz.com

[meltedvanilluxe]

What a depressing thread


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Ajax1723]

Originally Posted by JustinVerlander07

Define 'singles', it's base Topps, people know what they're buying. We get it you don't like the product. Move along?

I'll revisit this later.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by Ajax1723

Using the odds for the Spike Lee 1/1 Auto (it could be in any SKU and there can only be one, so it gives us the amount of packs that are available from each SKU)

I may be wrong, but I don't think they can legally put it on the odds sheet for a format that it is not in can they? Those odds are either incorrect, or there are different kinds of foilfactors in each one. Or maybe I'm just wrong. I just don't know how that would be allowed.

I agree they made a lot, but I don't think they really had a choice for this release with all the build up. If they had limited production box prices would 4x in a week. I really don't think they want that right now. They want everyone to get some to suck them into future releases. Allowing the first release to skyrocket in price and no stores to be able to keep in on their shelves would be disastrous.

For anyone concerned about print run, just stay away. If you want singles, just wait a couple of weeks. I'm glad they printed it to the moon. There will be many more choice to come for anyone wanting more limited products.

[bss83]

Originally Posted by Ajax1723

I'm usually part of the optimistic crowd, but as I stated before, and others also mentioned earlier, they made so much of this its hard to fathom.

Using the odds for the Spike Lee 1/1 Auto (it could be in any SKU and there can only be one, so it gives us the amount of packs that are available from each SKU)

17,220,000 hobby packs /20 packs per box = 861,000 Hobby boxes, or 71,750 Hobby cases.

4,269,334 jumbo hobby packs /10 packs per box = 426,993 Jumbo Hobby Boxes, or 71,150 Jumbo Hobby cases.

Blasters (Using Value box SE) have 39,732,000 packs /7 packs per box = 5,676,000 SE blasters

Mega boxes have 37,570,534 packs /16 packs per box = 2,348,133 Mega Boxes

This doesn't take into account the Costco, Gamestop or other special boxes, including the unreleased Holiday.

There is an insurmountable amount of this.

This also doesn't take into account that it can only be in ONE of these products, it isn't 1 per version. You can do a much better job calculating print runs based on product version specific parallels. What you did here vastly overstates the print run.

Just use the base card foilfractors that are hobby exclusive, and just assume 150 are in hobby and 150 are in jumbo and you get a fraction of the number of boxes/cases you have listed above.

[Bob Ross]

Originally Posted by bss83

This also doesn't take into account that it can only be in ONE of these products, it isn't 1 per version. You can do a much better job calculating print runs based on product version specific parallels. What you did here vastly overstates the print run.

Just use the base card foilfractors that are hobby exclusive, and just assume 150 are in hobby and 150 are in jumbo and you get a fraction of the number of boxes/cases you have listed above.

Correct. Box QTY can't be determined off of the Spike Lee since the possibility to hit it is in almost every SKU. This is why I took a FoilFractor ONLY available in Hobby and Jumbo to get these numbers:

Originally Posted by Bob Ross

Math time with Uncle Bob.

Using the "THE DAILY DRIBBLE" insert which is Hobby only, the Foilfractor 1/1 odds, and the assumption that the Hobby box makeup is identical to MLB Topps Hobby of 20 packs per box:

THE DOUBLE DRIBBLE checklist: 40
THE DOUBLE DRIBBLE Foilfractor odds: 1:133,934
Packs per Hobby Box: 20
Hobby Boxes made: 267,868

For funsies, here is the same insert math for Jumbo boxes:
THE DOUBLE DRIBBLE checklist: 40
THE DOUBLE DRIBBLE Foilfractor odds: 1:33706
Packs per Jumbo Box: 10
Jumbo Boxes made: 134,824

These are the only SKU's THE DAILY DRIBBLE INSERT is in so do what you will with these box numbers.

Your friend,
Bob

[premium1981]

Also remember 8 boxes per jumbo case now. Not 6.

[jmarascojr]

Originally Posted by BlowoutBuzz

also on the way ... cross-posting as it's basically a part parallel release.

First Buzz: 2025-26 Topps Holiday basketball cards >> BlowoutBuzz.com

I've always enjoyed putting the holiday baseball set together, gives my brain something to do during the holiday season minus the holidays and work.

Might have to go in on these instead of baseball this year...

[Bob Ross]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Also remember 8 boxes per jumbo case now. Not 6.

Oh, sh1t. Missed that. Should still be the same boxes made for jumbo based on 10 packs. Thanks for the case correction.

[dirtywax]

Thanks, Bob!

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by Bob Ross

Oh, sh1t. Missed that. Should still be the same boxes made for jumbo based on 10 packs. Thanks for the case correction.

8 boxes per jumbo cases, not packs.

[cardrcomeback]

Just noticed on the checklist that this will have Chrome cards with the 80-81 set. I'd imagine the parallels and autos on that will be pretty big chases.

[mfisher27]

There's one single parallel that's only available in hobby packs and it's the Player Number Variation.

It's a 25 card checklist and each is numbered to the player's jersey number.

The sum of the 25 is 292 (assuming 0 and 00 are 1 like Panini has done in the past)

Those are 1:5,002 packs and only listed for Hobby Boxes

That means 292 * 5002 = 1,460,584 hobby packs

Right?

That's the only set/parallel that's in a single format.

[Jahape1]

While the odds aren't great in general, which isn't surprising, the Fanatics Boxes look better than both Hobby & Jumbo if the cost of $30 and number of packs (9) aligns with recent baseball fanatics boxes.

Here's my premature analysis of the odds without knowing all the retail formats:
https://www.reddit.com/r/basketballc...t=share_button

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by JustinVerlander07

Define 'singles', it's base Topps, people know what they're buying. We get it you don't like the product. Move along?

I've posted 2 times in this thread. Get a life.

[Mattsurewood]

Originally Posted by mfisher27

There's one single parallel that's only available in hobby packs and it's the Player Number Variation.

It's a 25 card checklist and each is numbered to the player's jersey number.

The sum of the 25 is 292 (assuming 0 and 00 are 1 like Panini has done in the past)

Those are 1:5,002 packs and only listed for Hobby Boxes

That means 292 * 5002 = 1,460,584 hobby packs

Right?

That's the only set/parallel that's in a single format.

So about 6,100 hobby cases based on this.

[wxguy44]

Originally Posted by mfisher27

There's one single parallel that's only available in hobby packs and it's the Player Number Variation.

It's a 25 card checklist and each is numbered to the player's jersey number.

The sum of the 25 is 292 (assuming 0 and 00 are 1 like Panini has done in the past)

Those are 1:5,002 packs and only listed for Hobby Boxes

That means 292 * 5002 = 1,460,584 hobby packs

Right?

That's the only set/parallel that's in a single format.

I don't think those odds are correct on the pdf. Respectfully, I also think the other calculations in this thread are off.

Assuming even distribution for hobby & jumbo, for an insert set like the Rookie Roundball Remnants Foilfractor, there are 20 total cards. So, even distribution would be 10 in hobby & 10 in jumbo.

Hobby: 10 cards x 246000 = 2,460,000 packs

2,460,000 packs / 20 packs in hobby box = 123,000 hobby boxes

Jumbo: 10 cards x 62785 = 627,850 packs

627,785 packs / 10 packs in jumbo box = 62,785 jumbo boxes

It's probably not exact, so you can play around with the other foilfractor insert sets to get an idea of print run ranges.