First Buzz: 2025-26 Topps NBA basketball cards

[anusinha]

Anyone see the costco boxes yet?

[Moss84istheGOAT]

I was able to grab 6 more blasters and landed an auto, best 4 hits out of the 6

[eastbayak]

Ripped 1 hobby box.

It was fun but I got in at MSRP.

Didn't hit anything crazy but pulled 3 Flaggs (1 base, 2 inserts). Didn't hit any numbered but did hit a Golden Mirror (unfortunately, Marcus Sasser). Pulled a relic instead of auto (Liam McNeeley).

I like the base design. Some of the inserts, though likely worthless, look cool.

Moving the rest of my hobby/jumbo boxes (couple still in route) EXCEPT 1 jumbo (to hold for fun). Will also rip the 9 fanatics exclusive boxes whenever they arrive.

But yeah, happy to finally rip licensed NBA Topps cards again!!

[Hess687]

Walked into my local Target and the shelves were full of untouched blasters. Maybe if they come out with a Target Circle promo, I would change my mind.

[Mattsurewood]

Originally Posted by jfan2024

There are plenty of monsters yet to be hit given there are so many 1/1s of each player. For example, the triple auto 1/1 of Flagg/Harper/Knueppel may be the biggest card in the product and hasn't surfaced. I wonder if the Flagg first card 1/1 actually ends up being more than the superfractor 1/1? I wouldn't guess so, but I kind of feel like the first card is kind of the original Flagg 1/1.

Biggest hits I know of seen (there are surely more that others have seen surface):
- Flagg base 1/1
- Edgecomb base 1/1
- Lebron auto 1/1

On chrome, my take is we can't all be saving money for chrome. When direct hobby jumbo is $600+/box and secondary is 1k+/box which seems like all but a guarantee to me, this flagship paper is going to look like an absolute bargain when it's the same exact cards, just not in chrome

I'd think there are several hits from the chrome packs in this flagship product still out there...

--Any word if the Wemby 1/1 chrome super and chrome super auto have been pulled?
--I saw the Flagg foilfractor 1/1 but have the Flagg Super chrome 1/1 and auto chrome 1/1 been pulled?
--I think I saw the 1/1 Super auto of Dylan Harper was pulled, but probably still guys like Yang and Ace Bailey out there?
--Also a bunch of the 1/1 "first card"s are out there
--I think there's a lot of meat left on this bone

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by Mattsurewood

I'd think there are several hits from the chrome packs in this flagship product still out there...

--Any word if the Wemby 1/1 chrome super and chrome super auto have been pulled?
--I saw the Flagg foilfractor 1/1 but have the Flagg Super chrome 1/1 and auto chrome 1/1 been pulled?
--I think I saw the 1/1 Super auto of Dylan Harper was pulled, but probably still guys like Yang and Ace Bailey out there?
--Also a bunch of the 1/1 "first card"s are out there
--I think there's a lot of meat left on this bone

Most people who make comments about big cards being pulled don't really understand what they are talking about.

1) For MOST products, a big card being hit changes nothing.
2) The complainers often throw in a line like "no use in opening my box now that the Flagg 1/1 has been pulled". Yea, like you were actually going to pull it from your one box.
3) As you showed in your examples, there are a HUGE amount of big cards in a product like this. There are far more remaining than have been pulled. Far more.

I've said it several times before, but if I am opening a product I always look for worst case scenario value. That way I know what the highest likelihood of value is going to be. You are far more likely to get a bad box than a good box. You have to have a realistic understanding of what you are most likely going to get. Then, if you decide to open in bulk, you can start calculating in the bigger hit probabilities.

[Mattsurewood]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Most people who make comments about big cards being pulled don't really understand what they are talking about.

1) For MOST products, a big card being hit changes nothing.
2) The complainers often throw in a line like "no use in opening my box now that the Flagg 1/1 has been pulled". Yea, like you were actually going to pull it from your one box.
3) As you showed in your examples, there are a HUGE amount of big cards in a product like this. There are far more remaining than have been pulled. Far more.

Indeed---all the Reds, Oranges...it's crazy. A TON of "high dollar" hits outside of just 1/1's

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by Mattsurewood

Indeed---all the Reds, Oranges...it's crazy. A TON of "high dollar" hits outside of just 1/1's

The interesting thing about this release is that all the talk has been about Flagg leading up to it. But Wemby is the prize in these boxes. I can't believe how high his stuff is. Crazytown.

[threepointplay]

Originally Posted by premium1981

The interesting thing about this release is that all the talk has been about Flagg leading up to it. But Wemby is the prize in these boxes. I can't believe how high his stuff is. Crazytown.

An average of 31.0 points, 12.8 rebounds and 4.8 blocks per game will do that to a players cards!

[hermanotarjeta]

I got $60 worth of sellable cards in a $515 jumbo box. This is less than a week after release.

Almost everyone here who opened a box is selling the rest of their sealed boxes with little temptation to open.

I would never open another hobby/jumbo box again at these prices given the enormous odds of pulling something significant.

Blasters are the best bet to scratch the itch, they will always be available for srp.

Leave hobby/jumbo for the breaker crowd.

[nbahobbyaddict]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

I got $60 worth of sellable cards in a $515 jumbo box.

Holy sh** that's horrible

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by nbahobbyaddict

Holy sh** that's horrible

Do you now understand why no one is opening a second time?

The jubilation for topps licensed NBA has come and gone. Reality has set back in.

A guy in the shop broke multiple hobby cases and pulled only 1-2 autos per case - jerseys came out in 9 out of 10 boxes. At $250 per hobby box that’s insane.

Your odds of actually pulling a monster card are horrendous - you will need to open hundreds of cases to pull one given the massive case print run.

Buyer beware.

[yoyosh]

Wembanyama Hoops RCs are under $5/each.
Where do we think basssss Flagg RCs are at the end of 2026?

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by yoyosh

Wembanyama Hoops RCs are under $5/each.
Where do we think basssss Flagg RCs are at the end of 2026?

Well, according to some, Coop will be $50 since he’s 10X better.

Realistically, $5 or less.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by yoyosh

Wembanyama Hoops RCs are under $5/each.
Where do we think basssss Flagg RCs are at the end of 2026?

But but but fourth year Wemby rookies will be on fire!!!

[Boo]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

I got $60 worth of sellable cards in a $515 jumbo box. This is less than a week after release.

Almost everyone here who opened a box is selling the rest of their sealed boxes with little temptation to open.

I would never open another hobby/jumbo box again at these prices given the enormous odds of pulling something significant.

Blasters are the best bet to scratch the itch, they will always be available for srp.

Leave hobby/jumbo for the breaker crowd.

According to a few old heads, you just don't know how to hustle commons.

[nbahobbyaddict]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Do you now understand why no one is opening a second time?

Do I now understand? I didn't have any interest in opening a first time lol.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by nbahobbyaddict

Do I now understand? I didn't have any interest in opening a first time lol.

Wise choice, lol.

Pumpers will shut down the critics because, guess what, they are trying to sell their product.

Don’t fall for the dog and pony show, kids.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Boo

According to a few old heads, you just don't know how to hustle commons.

That’s because I’m lazy and grew up wealthy.

All I’ve ever known was to complain.

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by Boo

According to a few old heads, you just don't know how to hustle commons.

Correct.


Buy early.
Break en masse.
List everything before going to bed on release night.
Rake in the .3% profit.
Say how well you did.
Go to the food shelf.
Repeat.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

Correct.


Buy early.
Break en masse.
List everything before going to bed on release night.
Rake in the .3% profit.
Say how well you did.
Go to the food shelf.
Repeat.

All while putting your $200/hour job on hold.

[FatButcher]

Originally Posted by Moss84istheGOAT

I was able to grab 6 more blasters and landed an auto, best 4 hits out of the 6

Isn't the Foilfractor the 1/1 parallel for that Coward auto?

[Tonic3]

I opened one more hobby box last night. Nothing much in the normal packs other than a Flagg base rc but the one chrome pack "saved" me....I guess.

Chrome pack: Edgecombe and a Noa Essengue Gold auto #39/50

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by yoyosh

Wembanyama Hoops RCs are under $5/each.
Where do we think basssss Flagg RCs are at the end of 2026?

I think they settle between $3-$4 because this is the first Topps release. Next year, I can't see any rookie being over a dollar if they play like that.

[bub838]

Originally Posted by Hess687

Walked into my local Target and the shelves were full of untouched blasters. Maybe if they come out with a Target Circle promo, I would change my mind.

Good. Flagship retail should be available on shelves.