First Buzz: 2021 Topps Series 1 baseball cards + SPs

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by joe73

Exactly right. There's a middle ground between papering the world with cards like 30 years ago and having almost no cards available to the average non-flipper in stores.

If you truly believe we are in a bubble, why would you advocate for printing more? Not only does that escalate the timeframe of the bubble, but it makes the aftermath that much worse. Keep in mind, this "crisis" we are in of not finding wax in retail stores is like 6-7 months old. There was plenty of product on the shelves until mid-late summer. Those Walmart and Target clearance bins were always filled with cards that were leftover from stocks. Let's wait and see what the correction looks like before we advocate printing more of something that was collecting dust a year ago. A product like Series 1 has NEVER been desirable in the retail format unless you were a breaker purchasing at cost. I could buy all the blasters I wanted wholesale for $12 prior to 2021.

The only justification for printing more would be if you believed that this was not a bubble, rather a new norm, and in order to appease collectors you needed to increase production to meet demand. That would be realistic. It sounds like maybe you aren't even convinced that this explosion is short term. Really puts a dent in your endless argument these last 3 weeks.

[joe73]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

If you truly believe we are in a bubble, why would you advocate for printing more? Not only does that escalate the timeframe of the bubble, but it makes the aftermath that much worse. Keep in mind, this "crisis" we are in of not finding wax in retail stores is like 6-7 months old. There was plenty of product on the shelves until mid-late summer. Those Walmart and Target clearance bins were always filled with cards that were leftover from stocks. Let's wait and see what the correction looks like before we advocate printing more of something that was collecting dust a year ago. A product like Series 1 has NEVER been desirable in the retail format unless you were a breaker purchasing at cost. I could buy all the blasters I wanted wholesale for $12 prior to 2021.

The only justification for printing more would be if you believed that this was not a bubble, rather a new norm, and in order to appease collectors you needed to increase production to meet demand. That would be realistic. It sounds like maybe you aren't even convinced that this explosion is short term. Really puts a dent in your endless argument these last 3 weeks.

No. Two things can be true at once. I can believe there's a bubble, and I can also believe it would be good if people could actually find Series 1 on the shelves or buy it online at something near MSRP.

Topps has been hyping its 70th anniversary for six months now, but a lot of the people who've been with them for much of the first 69 years won't be able to collect it without lining the pockets of flippers. That's not good for Topps, it's not good for collectors, and it certainly won't bring new collectors into the "hobby."

[GoBeavs]

Originally Posted by joe73

No. Two things can be true at once. I can believe there's a bubble, and I can also believe it would be good if people could actually find Series 1 on the shelves or buy it online at something near MSRP.

Topps has been hyping its 70th anniversary for six months now, but a lot of the people who've been with them for much of the first 69 years won't be able to collect it without lining the pockets of flippers. That's not good for Topps, it's not good for collectors, and it certainly won't bring new collectors into the "hobby."

You make it sound as if retail won't be available. It'll be available. Flippers aren't going to be scooping the shelves when the 3rd party sales are getting less than MSRP.

In other words... There will be plenty of product for anyone who wants it.

[joe73]

Originally Posted by GoBeavs

You make it sound as if retail won't be available. It'll be available. Flippers aren't going to be scooping the shelves when the 3rd party sales are getting less than MSRP.

In other words... There will be plenty of product for anyone who wants it.

We'll see. Did 2020 ever sell for "less than MSRP"? Series 1 and 2 have been impossible to find at anywhere near MSRP since last fall, and even the much-maligned Update is pricey.

[GoBeavs]

Originally Posted by joe73

We'll see. Did 2020 ever sell for "less than MSRP"? Series 1 and 2 have been impossible to find at anywhere near MSRP since last fall, and even the much-maligned Update is pricey.

Are you kidding? You can buy all the retail Update you want on Ebay for less than MSRP. And BO's listed price is only couple dollars above MSRP for Hobby boxes. Buy in bulk, or wait for a sale and it's also below MSRP. The increases on the others series came after release.

[DaRitz]

Originally Posted by GoBeavs

You make it sound as if retail won't be available. It'll be available. Flippers aren't going to be scooping the shelves when the 3rd party sales are getting less than MSRP.

In other words... There will be plenty of product for anyone who wants it.

Originally Posted by joe73

We'll see. Did 2020 ever sell for "less than MSRP"? Series 1 and 2 have been impossible to find at anywhere near MSRP since last fall, and even the much-maligned Update is pricey.

My 2020 retail ripping with my boys has consisted of two blasters of Update. Montgomery Club has been a nice addition, and I'm only a member of that because on a whim I said, "What the heck?!" in 2018.

Instead of calling it a bubble (investment connotation), I think it's just popular right now. So let people buy cards. It will likely be less popular in the future. But the reason for the popularity drop won't be that too many people were able to buy cards.

I also think it's healthier right now. People who grew up in the 60's and 70's were raising kids in the 90's and said "if you hang onto these, you'll be rich!" Those of us who grew up in the 90's are telling our kids, "This is a lot of fun, and they'll probably be worthless in the future, so enjoy it!"

[joe73]

Originally Posted by GoBeavs

The increases on the others series came after release.

Why were there price increases after release if there was "plenty" for everyone?

[joe73]

Originally Posted by DaRitz

I also think it's healthier right now. People who grew up in the 60's and 70's were raising kids in the 90's and said "if you hang onto these, you'll be rich!" Those of us who grew up in the 90's are telling our kids, "This is a lot of fun, and they'll probably be worthless in the future, so enjoy it!"

You're the 1/1 parent telling their kids that.

People aren't spending $1,400 for hobby cases with the expectation it will be worthless.

[GoBeavs]

Originally Posted by joe73

Why were there price increases after release if there was "plenty" for everyone?

That's a completely different topic. When demand goes up on a fixed supply, the prices go up. I'm not going to go into a long lecture on it, but I'm sure there are plenty of websites that'll teach Supply v Demand economics if you want to learn about it.

Or are you proposing that Topps starts reprinting popular sets later on? All kinds of trouble going down that road. Besides the fact that Topps wouldn't want to do it.

[joe73]

Originally Posted by GoBeavs

That's a completely different topic. When demand goes up on a fixed supply, the prices go up. I'm not going to go into a long lecture on it, but I'm sure there are plenty of websites that'll teach Supply v Demand economics if you want to learn about it.

Or are you proposing that Topps starts reprinting popular sets later on? All kinds of trouble going down that road. Besides the fact that Topps wouldn't want to do it.

It's a "completely different topic"? In a matter of minutes, you went from claiming there would be "plenty of [2021 flagship] for anyone who wants it" to defending the quick price increases for 2020 flagship, of which there clearly wasn't "plenty for anyone who wanted it." Are you claiming there will be much higher supply or much lower demand for 2021?

[PostBaloney]

This will be known as the “junk parallel era”

BRB 75 different colored/numbered/base variations of each card.
Also did we mention there is a new product every week with another rookie card variation that also has 50 parallels too?
To buy every “rookie card” of Mr Joe Schmoe you will have to purchase 350 different cards throughout the year.

[GoBeavs]

Originally Posted by joe73

It's a "completely different topic"? In a matter of minutes, you went from claiming there would be "plenty of [2021 flagship] for anyone who wants it" to defending the quick price increases for 2020 flagship, of which there clearly wasn't "plenty for anyone who wanted it." Are you claiming there will be much higher supply or much lower demand for 2021?

Took me 2 minutes of research to see the prices for S1 didn't start going up until 3.5 months after release.

[joe73]

Originally Posted by GoBeavs

Took me 2 minutes of research to see the prices for S1 didn't start going up until 3.5 months after release.

Things have changed quite a bit since Feb. 2020. Why are you so confident there will be "plenty of [2021 flagship] for anyone who wants it"?

[GoBeavs]

Originally Posted by joe73

Things have changed quite a bit since Feb. 2020. Why are you so confident there will be "plenty of [2021 flagship] for anyone who wants it"?

If you read my initial rebuttal, you'll see the answer. This back & forth has been all about the selling price. It completely ignores the fact the one doing the selling also has to pay for fees & shipping. After they got burned on Update, the flippers aren't going to be scooping up the shelves again for no potential gains. That was your original statement I argued against.

[joe73]

Originally Posted by GoBeavs

If you read my initial rebuttal, you'll see the answer. This back & forth has been all about the selling price. It completely ignores the fact the one doing the selling also has to pay for fees & shipping. After they got burned on Update, the flippers aren't going to be scooping up the shelves again for no potential gains. That was your original statement I argued against.

Hobby cases are selling for $1,400. I find it hard to believe retail is going to be left sitting on the shelves.

[GoBeavs]

Also, I have completely left out the massive delays on the retail SKUs. This is partially caused by the increase in supply. There were no allocations to retail distributors.

[CxL]

To the people saying it is a bubble I find it highly unlikely. Main reason is that hype isn’t decentralized in the modern baseball market. If you pay attention to where the prices are increasing it is mainly due to the scarcity of that product. Basketball is a joke right now and you can see that by nothing making freaking sense. Baseball on the other hand, our prices are pushed by scarcity which is a direct signifier that a bubble does not exist due to people believing that the commodity has inherent value. If the value was hype like basketball then we would see series 1 boxes upwards of $300 per release.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Stech36

My thought is still raise price, not increase production.

It’s how you better avoid a crash

Topps can raise the price all they want, but in the end the market sets the price. I'm not saying a price raise isn't warranted-I think it is-but that's not going to stop people from flipping. It just means they'll get their $30 blaster at Wal-Mart instead of through an online retailer.

The only thing that is going to stop prices from going up is an increase in production. That makes the singles less valuable, that makes flipping less profitable, which forces some flippers out, which lowers the price of wax.

As I said earlier, it is in Topps best interest to keep prices rising...indefinitely if they can. So they should raise the price to get a bigger slice of the pie and print more, but not so much more that it makes prices fall.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by PostBaloney

This will be known as the “junk parallel era”

BRB 75 different colored/numbered/base variations of each card.
Also did we mention there is a new product every week with another rookie card variation that also has 50 parallels too?
To buy every “rookie card” of Mr Joe Schmoe you will have to purchase 350 different cards throughout the year.

I believe the actual number is closer to 10,000. I see that as a good thing, BTW.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by GoBeavs

If you read my initial rebuttal, you'll see the answer. This back & forth has been all about the selling price. It completely ignores the fact the one doing the selling also has to pay for fees & shipping. After they got burned on Update, the flippers aren't going to be scooping up the shelves again for no potential gains. That was your original statement I argued against.

I think there is possibly 3 types of flippers:

- Someone who is following the crowd and heard sports cards are exploding and buys up everything to sell (on credit or with limited funds). Will get out if they got burned from Update

- Someone who is following the crowd and heard sports cards are exploding and buys up everything to sell (with cash & plenty of it). They will most likely learn their lesson from Update

- Someone who is actually smart and understands the resell market and didn't buy Update because they knew they wouldn't be able to flip it and will reload on Series 1.

So yes, less flippers but still there will be some. Also have to factor in us collectors who didn't get any product since Chrome (maybe) or series 2 and have been itching to open something up and will buy more packs.

[Americards]

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

- Someone who is following the crowd and heard sports cards are exploding and buys up everything to sell (on credit or with limited funds). Will get out if they got burned from Update

- Someone who is following the crowd and heard sports cards are exploding and buys up everything to sell (with cash & plenty of it). They will most likely learn their lesson from Update

Update was only crap because of the 60 games worth of rookies...
If there was a full season, a lot more rookies would have been called up and there would have been more rookie cards.
If you buy based on 2020 Update, then you will miss the boat.

[salas1991]

Originally Posted by PostBaloney

This will be known as the “junk parallel era”

BRB 75 different colored/numbered/base variations of each card.
Also did we mention there is a new product every week with another rookie card variation that also has 50 parallels too?
To buy every “rookie card” of Mr Joe Schmoe you will have to purchase 350 different cards throughout the year.

Technically parallels are not RCs, though, only the regular base versions. I don't disagree that there are too many parallels these days, but if you're really just looking to collect true RCs (like I do), it's pretty easy to just ignore the parallels. Of course if you're a player collector, it's a different story!

[premium1981]

Is it release day yet? Bring on some 2021 Series 1!!!! Let's do this!!!!

Also, while we are at it, bring on some 2021 Spring Training!!!!

[PumpnDumpling]

Originally Posted by CxL

To the people saying it is a bubble I find it highly unlikely. Main reason is that hype isn’t decentralized in the modern baseball market. If you pay attention to where the prices are increasing it is mainly due to the scarcity of that product. Basketball is a joke right now and you can see that by nothing making freaking sense. Baseball on the other hand, our prices are pushed by scarcity which is a direct signifier that a bubble does not exist due to people believing that the commodity has inherent value. If the value was hype like basketball then we would see series 1 boxes upwards of $300 per release.

Please look up the definition of commodity

[PumpnDumpling]

Originally Posted by salas1991

Technically parallels are not RCs, though, only the regular base versions. I don't disagree that there are too many parallels these days, but if you're really just looking to collect true RCs (like I do), it's pretty easy to just ignore the parallels. Of course if you're a player collector, it's a different story!

You might be the only person who thinks this, which doesn't make it wrong (for you) but i would wholly disagree with this statement

In tribute, for example (rhymes with Zack Hample), every rookie is serially numbered....do the lower serial #'s remove the rookie logo/status from the card?