Hobby Bubble Peak Post-Mortem: Prospecting

[NSGJT]

Originally Posted by Ericc5Bears

If you bought his cards anytime before mid-late 2020 you're still up, probably big. If you bought any time after that you're down. The second statement also applies to literally every single player in the NBA outside of maybe like 3-5 guys.

https://www.psacard.com/auctionprice...s/2673471#g=10

Yeah if you bought 1st quarter 2020 you'd be roughly even. If you bought sooner you'd still be up right. If you bought later than this point you'd be down or down tremendous.

My point is that I can say Luka will never live up to the hype and I'll very, very, very likely be right even by saying this absolute statement about something that hasn't played out. Because the expectations and bar set are ridiculously high. People are mentioning Shai or Garland, which is totally different. You can buy in super low there even during the market boom. With Doncic, yeah if you bought pre-boom like literally anything, you could have sold for a nice to great profit during the peak or on the way down, or even right now.

But miss me with pretending like he's on track to live up to hype remotely. He just hasn't busted out completely or been a disappointment. He's still MILES away from coming close to what's needed for his cards to sustain value, and that's on top of assuming the market is even close to what it is now in 5-10 years for cards.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Lol. Look man, for any actual KD collectors out there, the guy is a legit top 20 all time player and if you've spent years putting together a nice PC of him, that's fantastic.

The issue I've had all along is with the wanna be hobby experts advising people to buy his base rookie at $11k, then getting rewarded by the gods of the hobby.

It's reckless and people got hurt from it. I know a lot of people would respond to that with "Caveat Emptor", but that doesn't mean that the person who wanted to participate in this hobby and got burned will ever want to come back.

Most of those people saw an opportunity to make easy money investing in trading cards. They didn't know the history of the hobby and how unprecedented the market was during the pandemic. They got tricked out of their money by other opportunists. They don't deserve to have extra money if they don't do their due diligence when investing. Taking investing advice from influencers has got to be one of the dumbest things in the history of this hobby.

[fabiani12333]

FOMO and a predisposition to risk taking and gambling have got to be the biggest elements to why individuals spend a lot of money on prospects and unproven young players.

The whole point of prospecting is to buy at a relatively low price with the chance of making a profit from a player becoming a star. If the prospect is immediately priced at GOAT levels, there is no upside -- you are guaranteed to lose.

I think the only athlete who has actually lived up to the prospect hype in recent years has been Shohei Ohtani. And it took him a few years and Tommy John surgery to finally break out.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

I'd say sports card investor takes the cake.

I really do feel bad for the normal people that got taken for a ride

but with that said DYOR is the most important advice I can give to anybody looking to get into cards. I spend more 3X more time doing research than I do buying. It used to be the other way around when the market was better.

Don't feel sorry for them. They wanted to make easy money and got burned. It was probably a lot of young males who are clueless about how the world works. Maybe they learned a valuable lesson. Maybe they'll dedicate themselves to learning how to invest wisely. No more get rich quick schemes.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

A Sam Vincent feat. Ahegao MJ heirloom for every generation.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/38560287023...Bk9SR_yAu66EYg

It's only right.

Who the hell is still paying $30 for that?

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Don't feel sorry for them. They wanted to make easy money and got burned. It was probably a lot of young males who are clueless about how the world works. Maybe they learned a valuable lesson. Maybe they'll dedicate themselves to learning how to invest wisely. No more get rich quick schemes.

Unfortunately, that's probably what a lot of them thought they were doing.

They spent the time listening (and paying for) SCI, or whatever other influencer they followed. They bought into box breaks they thought had a good ROI. They traveled to shows.

Some of them were complete fools who just wanted to get one over on everyone else, but some were also normal folks who thought they were getting in the right place at the right time, but it turns out they were getting in the right place at the wrong time.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by BlockShotStop

Am I the only person who thinks that a lot of posters are significantly overstating the impact that stimulus money had on the boom?

Guys, it wasn't that much money on a per person basis. Even if every person engaging in the hobby since COVID spent their entire stimulus allotment on cards (EXTREMELY unlikely scenario), that would be a drop in the bucket. Not when LeBron Lakers rookies were selling for $800 (as an early poster claimed) at high velocity. We all know the crazy wax and singles prices that were happening in 2021. Any stimulus money would be gone after a single hobby box and one of the more popular ultra modern PSA 10 base cards. People were pumping a ton more money into the hobby than $1,000 per year.

I agree that the stimulus had some financial impact; it was just pretty small. Honestly, the bigger, lasting effect was probably giving people an excuse to get their first taste of the gambling aspect (or "investing" for idiots) of the hobby and they got hooked, pumping non-stimulus money into the market.

In short, the whole "stimulus" explanation is drastically overblown and a lazy, boring take, in my opinion.

A lot of liquidity was injected into the financial markets during 2020 and 2021. The money supply dramatically increased during that time -- roughly 25% in 2020 and 12% in 2021. The hobby was a benefactor of that. People also had more disposable cash to play with due to the shutdowns and stimulus.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Who the hell is still paying $30 for that?

https://worldstar.boards.net/

[Nomad]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Who the hell is still paying $30 for that?

yung dolph still got some fans, right.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by tjforce

There's 2 vantage points though with you can look at Luka:

1. His 2018 draft 3rd overall spot, where he was picked behind Deandre Ayton and Marvin Bagley. He's definitely achieved from this starting point, or

2. The view after his 2nd season, when some of his fans/collectors/investors (not all, just some) started comparing him to LeBron. He's fallen short of that nearly impossible feat thus far, but not even as far as some would like you to believe.

If you look at his body of NBA work he’s not far off. LeBron didn’t get 1st team until his 3rd season. This also doesn’t include Lukas ACB titles, MVP, and 1st team

Through 5 years:
LeBron - 2x 1st team, 2x 2nd team - Luka 4x 1st team
LeBron obviously crushes him in playoff record and appearances and gets major credit for dragging the sorriest finals team of all time to get clubbed by the Spurs… but Luka has dragged his team to a WCF and has some big playoff moments also.

Luka through 28 playoff games - 32/9/8 on 47/37/69
Bron through 60 playoff games (wow) - don’t feel like calculating the exact numbers but they’re worse across the board.

Yea obviously LeBron is LeBron but if you were to take their names away their 1st 5 years of resume are pretty damn close.

It’s insane to me people think he hasn’t or won’t live up to the hype when he has so far passed it already.

Covid price bubble didn’t change his hype as a basketball player at all just rising tide lifts all boats type thing for his prices.

I feel like most people don’t actually remember the Luka discussion pre draft and year 1 and his year 2+ hype he’s absolutely lived up to. Obviously this year was super disappointing but let’s not be prisoners on the moment

[Mikeh6480]

Ben Simmons cards probably went down during Covid!

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by NSGJT

So he's made the WCF and lost it once in 5 years, has zero MVPs, and just finished a season where he wasn't remotely considered for the award and his team didn't even make the playoffs in a league where it's make-a-wish and almost everyone makes it. Got it. That's lmao territory indeed.

And I'm not a Doncic hater, I like the player. More so I'm talking about delusional morons who bought into his cards and already are taking fat Ls who are probably coping and smoking hopium for the unrealistic, astronomical bar he has to cross.

So 4 1st team all nba is nothing? I'm not disagreeing with you that his cards are priced like he's a multi time champion/mvp..but 4 1st team all nba in your 1st 5 seasons isnt nothing in my opinion

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by Ericc5Bears

I'm sure based on your username that is a totally unbiased take

PGs are overrated in today's NBA unless you shoot like Steph Curry. I would take an elite Forward over an elite Guard on my team any day and twice on Sunday.

[hauntedcomputer]

This is such a strange hobby.

I don't know any bass fishermen who talk about how much the value of their boat has changed or whether the fish they caught have added up to the value of the boat.

I stand by my belief the hobby is largely just the refuge of degenerate gamblers hoping to strike it rich, interspersed with occasional fetishists who have a certain type of OCD.

Just because you win the lottery doesn't mean you weren't an idiot for having played.

[YayNJ]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

The main problem with "prospecting" in basketball over the last few years on here, IG, youtube, etc... is that the people supposedly prospecting know little to nothing about actual basketball.

It's the same with soccer. Some of the takes I read online by people that have clearly never even been to a soccer match before are incredible, and these are supposed 'influencers' on the hobby.

[pmatic]

Originally Posted by NSGJT

But miss me with pretending like he's on track to live up to hype remotely. He just hasn't busted out completely or been a disappointment. He's still MILES away from coming close to what's needed for his cards to sustain value, and that's on top of assuming the market is even close to what it is now in 5-10 years for cards.

I agree with this. I think there were people projecting him as the next Michael Jordan which was absurd then and even look more ridiculous now.


Luka would have to not only continue his All NBA journey but also win championships and league MVP's and most importantly have a significant role in boosting NBA television ratings a feat only a very few of players have successfully managed in league history (MJ, Kobe, Lebron, Curry).

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by pmatic

I agree with this. I think there were people projecting him as the next Michael Jordan which was absurd then and even look more ridiculous now.


Luka would have to not only continue his All NBA journey but also win championships and league MVP's and most importantly have a significant role in boosting NBA television ratings a feat only a very few of players have successfully managed in league history (MJ, Kobe, Lebron, Curry).

What makes you think he couldn’t continue?

Players with at least 4x 1st team all NBA in their first 5 seasons. (Post merger)

Duncan
Luka
Bird

That’s it. MJ had 3 and an MVP. Bron had 2. Hakeem and Durant both had 3.

He’s arguably had one of the best 1st 5 year stretches of any player in NBA history.

Add in that none of those players besides LeBron had terrible teams like Luka has.

Bird wins 2 titles in his 1st 5 seasons and the Celtics are stacked. Duncan wins a title in his 1st 5 on a stacked Spurs team.

[jcardstore]

Luka and MJ are the only players to average at least 30ppg in the playoffs more than 2x in their 1st 5 seasons.

Jordan did it 4x, Luka 3x. TMac and Mitchell did it twice and then everyone else only did it once.

What more do y’all expect him to do? Sounds like you’re the ones with the unrealistic expectations

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Luka and MJ are the only players to average at least 30ppg in the playoffs more than 2x in their 1st 5 seasons.

Jordan did it 4x, Luka 3x. TMac and Mitchell did it twice and then everyone else only did it once.

What more do y’all expect him to do? Sounds like you’re the ones with the unrealistic expectations

But he couldn’t make the playoffs with the great Dorian Finney-Smith as his #2 for most of the season!

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

But he couldn’t make the playoffs with the great Dorian Finney-Smith as his #2 for most of the season!

Very few teams in NBA history have done a worse job of surrounding their star player with talent than the Mavs with Luka

[pmatic]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

What makes you think he couldn’t continue?

Players with at least 4x 1st team all NBA in their first 5 seasons. (Post merger)

Duncan
Luka
Bird

That’s it. MJ had 3 and an MVP. Bron had 2. Hakeem and Durant both had 3.

He’s arguably had one of the best 1st 5 year stretches of any player in NBA history.

Add in that none of those players besides LeBron had terrible teams like Luka has.

Bird wins 2 titles in his 1st 5 seasons and the Celtics are stacked. Duncan wins a title in his 1st 5 on a stacked Spurs team.

That's an extremely low bar if all Luka has are 1st All NBA selections especially when you're putting him right next to THE Michael Jordan. I feel like the second paragraph of my post was not acknowledged which is where I'm coming from. The MJ-Luka takes has always been preposterous in my humble opinion. There are plenty of great players who were regular 1st team All NBA invites but that doesn't mean they are or should be in the MJ trajectory.



In MJ's 3rd season (not counting his sophomore since he was injured) He was clearly the best player in the league.


In the same season he won:

All Star MVP and Dunk Contest
Defensive player of the year
Regular Season MVP
Scoring Season leader
All NBA 1st team
All NBA Defensive 1st team- Still the only player to win a scoring title and DPOY


I could go on here but if All-NBA trajectory for Luka is all we have, then he's trailing by a country mile.

[pmatic]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Luka and MJ are the only players to average at least 30ppg in the playoffs more than 2x in their 1st 5 seasons.

Nothing against Luka but the scoring boost in the Silver era puts a taint in some of these scoring records.


I used to lose my mind when somebody scored 50 now I don’t even bat an eye.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by pmatic

That's an extremely low bar if all Luka has are 1st All NBA selections especially when you're putting him right next to THE Michael Jordan. I feel like the second paragraph of my post was not acknowledged which is where I'm coming from. The MJ-Luka takes has always been preposterous in my humble opinion. There are plenty of great players who were regular 1st team All NBA invites but that doesn't mean they are or should be in the MJ trajectory.



In MJ's 3rd season (not counting his sophomore since he was injured) He was clearly the best player in the league.


In the same season he won:

All Star MVP and Dunk Contest
Defensive player of the year
Regular Season MVP
Scoring Season leader
All NBA 1st team
All NBA Defensive 1st team- Still the only player to win a scoring title and DPOY


I could go on here but if All-NBA trajectory for Luka is all we have, then he's trailing by a country mile.

So terrible that he doesn’t have as many accolades as the greatest player in NBA history yet

It’s actually comical to read posts like this.

Basically nobody was saying he was MJ, and the very very small minority that were, were clueless anyways. I challenge you to go find the posts here where people said Luka was going to be as good or better than MJ. Quote them all here.

But let’s just pretend MJ doesn’t exist what other players have a resume that stacks up with Luka? They’re all, all time greats.

[pmatic]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

So terrible that he doesn’t have as many accolades as the greatest player in NBA history yet

I don't think I went that far. Just putting it all in the right perspective.

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Basically nobody was saying he was MJ, and the very very small minority that were, were clueless anyways. I challenge you to go find the posts here where people said Luka was going to be as good or better than MJ. Quote them all here.

But let’s just pretend MJ doesn’t exist what other players have a resume that stacks up with Luka? They’re all, all time greats

I could but I'd rather not since it's a slippery slope.


Luka's still on the right track to become an All Time Great IMO but it would take a huge shift in his career if he wants to be in the same breathe as the Curry, Bird, Duncan etc.


Right now, it seems more likely he'll be in the same path as Dirk Nowitzki, Charles Barkley and Karl Malone types. A trade to another team could change his fortune though.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by pmatic

I don't think I went that far. Just putting it all in the right perspective.



I could but I'd rather not since it's a slippery slope.


Luka's still on the right track to become an All Time Great IMO but it would take a huge shift in his career if he wants to be in the same breathe as the Curry, Bird, Duncan etc.


Right now, it seems more likely he'll be in the same path as Dirk Nowitzki, Charles Barkley and Karl Malone types. A trade to another team could change his fortune though.

Based on what, though? He’s a heliocentric primary ball handler, offensive engine… whatever you want to call it. Non of the guys you listed were that.

What’s the slippery slope?