So if there is a “bubble” and it bursts...

[sebreg]

Originally Posted by dkcardman

1. The 'drop' we have been seeing the first half of the NBA season is something that happens EVERY year. All of the sudden, everyone gets surprised when things ramp to a frenzy as the playoffs approach. It is amazing how this happens every year, and every year people are worried about it.
2. Once you start with the card hobby, you don't stop, at least for the majority of people and even if you try to, it sucks you back in. Why? Because it is FUN. For all the new money that is bringing up values, there are real people behind it. They are discovering that they get to invest in the sports players they love watching. They get to hold a tangible asset (more fun that stocks, bonds, betting on games, etc). People aren't going to just get out now they they enjoy it.
3. Along with it being fun, it is a hobby. Something people enjoy. However, this is one of the very few hobbies that can breakeven and even possibly pay off with huge profits. What?! Okay, if you live in a world where money matters at all, this is going to be appealing to a lot of people. And continue to attract more and more people. Who discover they enjoy it, and spend more, and the cycle continues.
4. IMO, This is less of a bubble than it is the hobby finally realizing pent up potential that has been undervalued for a long time. Sure there are some elements of this that just seem insane right now, but don't we say that about everything the first time we see a big sale? Everyone is amazed that a card sells for $52k (Mantle rookie 30 or so years ago). Then $100k, then 250k. Next thing you know they are selling for $4M and we keep having the same reaction. 'surely this cannot last'. It sure can if people enjoy it, and more an more people discover it. I don't see those people disappearing with the snap of Thanos anytime soon.

Top 1% (or whatever) of blue-chip goat cards are pretty darn safe in long run imo.

Just gotta ride the ups and downs and try to have fun with it. If it wasn't fun I'd bounce. I spend what I can afford to lose. Cool to make money but not end of world if I get a hammer on my head. Just have to be aware of risks, try to have fun, enjoy connecting with the diverse range of people one can connect with in this hobby.

[Kobe101]

Originally Posted by alphaomegas

Well you forgot the biggest when people actually start having to pay bills again like mortgage and rent when covid over if ever people spend money else where. Aka spending thousands on tickets to games or concerts etc Lastly send cards to grade is a fortune now min wage $8 or so most people will have to work 4 hrs to grade 1 bloody card that you get back till next what a damn joke. Lastly manufactures gouging artificial limiting supply to charge enormous amounts on cardboard. It’s turning a lot away and killing future collectors.

Who is not paying their bills while spending money on sports cards? I would imagine most people who have jobs that were lost to covid are making close to what they would have made with all of the extra unemployment benefits they are getting. And I really hope if anyone is spending money on cards they are responsible enough to also pay their bills.

When things go back to normal some of the money I have been spending on the hobby will go to other things but I don't anticipate that having much of an effect on the hobby.

[Mymoneypls]

Fwiw I think we have seen huge gains, because of all the factors that everyone has pointed out. I just think this is the market stabilizing itself, I’m sure in a year from now most of the cards will be on a upward trend if you look over a 2 year period.


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[thenightman]

Originally Posted by Systemtrend

What’s to stop mass people from just getting refunds through eBay and PayPal for a card that is now worth way less since a buyer can pretty much do whatever they want there and get away with it. Good luck everyone lol.

Nothing. You should just get out now.

[NoWhammys2021]

Watch the breakers...


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[CoolG]

JAGR French UD raw rookies have dropped approx 35-40% in last few weeks.
They were overpriced IMO a month or so ago.

[Yankees2020]

The pandemic will fully end, soon enough... once that happens, goodby to all these inflated for nothing prices. The little guys in the world got some stimmy's, so they spent more than they should in little cards... then the little cards exploded because people were overpaying, then people with actual money heard about this hobby "explosion" and figured cardboard would be a great idea as a great investment... lol so for the time being the fad is in. Once the fad dies out, and the $5 cards go back to being $5 cards, the hobby will once again die, and the investors will lose their pants, and therefore find another place to waste their money silly.

Then us longtime collectors will go back to collecting as usual, and actually buying cards again.

[Ross]

Then I can buy more of what I love. This is only a hobby.


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[OMG]

Here's my prediction ,

The hobby market will decline slowly at first (I think thats where we are at currently) , then after some time of continued decline these new investors will panic and sell sell sell just to avoid any bigger loses then Boom the bubble will pop and I believe many many people will leave the hobby and move onto the next big hype.

The only cards that are "safe" and wont be afected as much when the bubble pops is the Top 5%-10% of cards , the Kobes , the Lebrons, MJ's , High end logoman/ 1/1's etc , I believe those will always have value because theres alot of collectors with deep pockets and these type of cards dont pop up often so they for sure will be fighting to get them.

The rest of the 90% of cards will all drop , people will suddenly realize that those mass produced 2020 non auto non numbered Base cards graded 9.5/10 aren't really that rare anymore, some of these cards have insanely high POP and just a matter of time before everyone realizes that.

I don't think we'll ever go back to how the hobby was pre covid , boxes will not go down to $80 like it use to in the past , the prices will be somewhere in the middle , for sure not $2,000-$4,000 a box like they are today but definitely not as cheap as they once were. I feel that the number of collectors in this hobby will drop alot once life gets back to normal, and its mostly going to be hardcore collectors left , majority of these flippers/GaryV investors will be gone and onto the new hype/next big thing.

It's going to be fun to comeback to these threads a few years from now to reread my predictions and see how it all played out

[EJKaufman]

Originally Posted by OMG

Here's my prediction ,

The hobby market will decline slowly at first (I think thats where we are at currently) , then after some time of continued decline these new investors will panic and sell sell sell just to avoid any bigger loses then Boom the bubble will pop and I believe many many people will leave the hobby and move onto the next big hype.

The only cards that are "safe" and wont be afected as much when the bubble pops is the Top 5%-10% of cards , the Kobes , the Lebrons, MJ's , High end logoman/ 1/1's etc , I believe those will always have value because theres alot of collectors with deep pockets and these type of cards dont pop up often so they for sure will be fighting to get them.

The rest of the 90% of cards will all drop , people will suddenly realize that those mass produced 2020 non auto non numbered Base cards graded 9.5/10 aren't really that rare anymore, some of these cards have insanely high POP and just a matter of time before everyone realizes that.

I don't think we'll ever go back to how the hobby was pre covid , boxes will not go down to $80 like it use to in the past , the prices will be somewhere in the middle , for sure not $2,000-$4,000 a box like they are today but definitely not as cheap as they once were. I feel that the number of collectors in this hobby will drop alot once life gets back to normal, and its mostly going to be hardcore collectors left , majority of these flippers/GaryV investors will be gone and onto the new hype/next big thing.

It's going to be fun to comeback to these threads a few years from now to reread my predictions and see how it all played out

Prophetic. I think a lot of what you say will turn out to be right.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by OMG

Here's my prediction ,

The hobby market will decline slowly at first (I think thats where we are at currently) , then after some time of continued decline these new investors will panic and sell sell sell just to avoid any bigger loses then Boom the bubble will pop and I believe many many people will leave the hobby and move onto the next big hype.

Are some players declining? Sure. But the hobby is certainly not. Money is cycling. Baseball and soccer are on fire. MJ remains hot outside of early Fleer. Basketball will get its time again in the playoffs. Football will heat up this summer. Soccer might cool off this winter, but then get ready for WC 2022 hype.

Same as it ever was.

[Totalpackage]

The market will be fine as long as those big grading companies running around. The CSG has just joined the game which is good sign to tell the market is healthy and attracting new funds to the pool.

[drobfan8]

For every College kid that cashes in their Luka there will be another to replace him.

The bubble bursting puts pressure on Panini, box breakers and flippers. Not the hobbyists.

I seriously doubt I'll see Exquisite base I need drop in price.

But bring on the bursting bubble, I might be able to grab a Retail box or 2.

I think for a long while collectors preferred everything else over Panini, but now they're doing a pretty decent job so a lot of people have confidence in them.

Basketball is getting bigger and bigger.

[Card Love]

I hope and pray everyday that the bubble burst and things crash. I own allot of cards and would lose $$$$'s if that happened but I dont care I want it to burn like a mother ********. I doubt that will ever happen. Corrections yes but we are already seeing corrections of 20% or higher but overall it means nothing unless you bought at the peak. Allot of cards are still insanely priced ATM.

I strongly disagree that if there is a bubble burst which I doubt, which cards will be left holding the bag. I think its definitely the cards like Jordan RC that sold for $600,000 that will stand to be corrected. I doubt $150 HOF's will be as affected. People will always be able to afford those $150 cards.

The bubble will only burst if people lose confidence in card values and start to sell en mass and it isn't going to be the lower end affordable base RC's that go first. Collectors will stay in the game but investors will get decimated.

[hauntedcomputer]

I don't see anything fundamentally changed from last time I collected except a lot more people went temporarily insane a lot faster. There were far, far more "collectors" in the early 1990s than there are now and almost all of them went away pretty fast.

"This time it's different."

Sure it is. The hobby changes, cards change, prices change, but human nature never does. The first big slide and there will be a race to the bottom. The hobby will return to most of the people who were collecting before the boom/bubble/surge. The main difference I see is that there won't be a collecting nostalgia in the next generation--no kids busting packs now who will have some disposable income to revisit their childhoods (because there are no packs in the stores and boxes are too expensive--yes, there are some shrewd young flippers, but most aren't getting in on PSA 10 Lukas at these prices). So I wonder who we'll be selling cards to in 20-30 years when we need another bubble to fund our retirements.

I don't worry about "The Hobby," or even really care. It will be fine because there are always people who do it for fun or obsession or passion. But the madness of crowds is a real thing, and there are only so many greater fools to go around.

[DajuanWagner]

Originally Posted by drobfan8

For every College kid that cashes in their Luka there will be another to replace him.

The bubble bursting puts pressure on Panini, box breakers and flippers. Not the hobbyists.

I seriously doubt I'll see Exquisite base I need drop in price.

But bring on the bursting bubble, I might be able to grab a Retail box or 2.

I think for a long while collectors preferred everything else over Panini, but now they're doing a pretty decent job so a lot of people have confidence in them.

Basketball is getting bigger and bigger.

I never agree with anything you ever say because you are such a negative Nancy, but, for once, I agree with you on this..........

[nera20]

I don't think the crash we are hoping for is ever going to happen, but the market will correct itself most likely.

I believe we will get back to what it was around 2017-2018 where the hobby was very strong but cases, boxes, and packs were obtainable and reasonable.

I don't think that Hofer singles will crash to much they may correct themselves a bit but not back to pre pandemic.

I may be totally wrong but there is always cycles in things and more likely than not we probably will be able to afford boxes and cases again and they wont be marked up 1000 percent

[Bruin7]

I view the original purchase by Timbaland a micro-bubble; an anomaly with the price adjusting accordingly now. Noticed many fellow collectors branched out of their comfort zones after seeing that one on IG. Funny how it influences people so strongly. Anyhow everything went up again during this period (quality stuff in non-sports, SI, female athletes, other competitive sports). Sale tumbled as he listed it way too soon IMO. Just a micro-bubble.

[k13]

Originally Posted by nera20

I don't think the crash we are hoping for is ever going to happen, but the market will correct itself most likely.

I believe we will get back to what it was around 2017-2018 where the hobby was very strong but cases, boxes, and packs were obtainable and reasonable.

I don't think that Hofer singles will crash to much they may correct themselves a bit but not back to pre pandemic.

I may be totally wrong but there is always cycles in things and more likely than not we probably will be able to afford boxes and cases again and they wont be marked up 1000 percent

No one will allow a prizm hobby box to be a couple hundred anytime soon.

[drobfan8]

Originally Posted by DajuanWagner

I never agree with anything you ever say because you are such a negative Nancy, but, for once, I agree with you on this..........

Ah you've got me all wrong then.

Most of what I say is to trigger Bron fanaticals and you sweet cheeks.

[drobfan8]

Originally Posted by k13

No one will allow a prizm hobby box to be a couple hundred anytime soon.

I still remember eyeing up 12/13 Prizm at $100 a box when the Ausd was ahead of the USD and never pulled the trigger. Gulp

[k13]

Originally Posted by drobfan8

I still remember eyeing up 12/13 Prizm at $100 a box when the Ausd was ahead of the USD and never pulled the trigger. Gulp

I remember seeing it for $50 and everyone here making fun of Panini.

Everything was still about hoarding exquisite.

[k13]

All these 90's rookies will drop and are already dropping in all sports.

It does not matter if its Kobe or Emmitt Smith.

[dio]

already burst, then starting to settle, then next run up, cycles

[SupermanBrandon]

It's all a circle. Just pay attention and you will do just fine.

I remember when the hobby was "coming back down to earth and falling" this past fall. Just 5-6 short months ago. Prices weren't as "high" as the summer. "Bubble is bursting", etc, etc. Basketball & Baseball were over. Football had started. Soccer was off their all-time highs. Guess what happened from Jan-March...Basketball came back. Baseball Spring Training. Soccer became scorching hot (AGAIN).

Moral of the story...PAY ATTENTION! Football draft is coming. Basketball playoffs are close. Baseball will start soon (hint). Soccer is the highest it's ever been (hint). Add the numbers up. Think! What happens when other sports start? When certain sports hit playoffs? When certain sports are at all-time highs? When Record Highs are hit at major auction houses? Make a PLAN.